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Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Wed May 20, 2026 11:28 am
by DSMok1
I think the primary reason is that in the playoffs the opponents spend a lot of time crafting custom game plans to take away the opponent's top players and preferred actions. In almost all cases this involves the other team's MVP candidate being significantly limited on offense by the defensive game plan and forcing the remaining players on their team to take on a greater role or greater responsibility than in the regular season.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Wed May 20, 2026 10:00 pm
by Mike G
Those can all be factors, and offsetting those are perhaps better refereeing (or more protective of stars), better teammates (thus Less pressure), no back-to-backs.
Last year's playoffs did not show this RS-to-PO statistical collapse. There were 12 who received mvp votes, and their RS stats held very well thru the postseason.
Code: Select all
'25 PER WS/48 BPM
RS 23.7 .190 6.3
PO 23.5 .177 7.2
'26 PER WS/48 BPM
RS 25.0 .221 6.9
PO 19.9 .131 3.2
The minutes-weighted PO BPM is still 7.2
I suspect the 2025 results are more typical. Scoring is way down from the RS, and it's largely due to elite players not measuring up.
Others not included in the 2026 sample come to mind: Reaves, Edwards, Randle, Maxey, Booker, Avdija, Clingan, Nickeil, A Gordon, D White, Ingram ... with major dropoffs across the board.
These summary stats bring the whole field up to average: poor shooting and turnovers are attributed to stronger defense.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Mon May 25, 2026 3:09 pm
by Mike G
A wee bit late: Leaders thru 2 rounds.
Code: Select all
xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
1.82 .182 Karl-A Towns NYK 285 30.4 .393 14.4 3.03 1.63 2.24 1.72 1.80
1.80 .129 Evan Mobley Cle 494 20.7 .189 6.6 1.79 1.66 1.86 1.80 1.85
1.64 .117 Cade Cunningham Det 572 18.2 .098 3.4 1.71 1.58 1.12 1.52 2.04
1.54 .154 Vi. Wembanyama SAS 288 27.9 .275 9.3 3.00 1.47 1.58 1.29 1.80
1.39 .139 Jalen Brunson NYK 347 23.9 .253 4.5 2.12 1.44 1.75 1.04 1.53
1.37 .171 OG Anunoby NYK 282 25.9 .331 10.0 2.03 1.30 1.86 1.32 1.19
1.35 .096 Jarrett Allen Cle 403 21.3 .199 4.1 1.63 1.42 1.60 1.16 1.37
1.32 .094 Do. Mitchell Cle 503 18.4 .110 1.2 1.63 1.42 1.10 1.00 1.70
1.28 .159 Shai G-A OKC 279 28.0 .280 6.2 2.32 1.43 1.56 .98 1.35
1.26 .090 James Harden Cle 524 16.5 .095 2.2 1.34 1.23 .99 1.20 1.46
xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
1.25 .089 Tobias Harris Det 485 16.5 .134 2.1 1.43 1.14 1.30 1.09 1.44
1.18 .084 Ausar Thompson Det 427 16.4 .138 5.3 1.20 1.00 1.18 1.38 1.07
1.15 .104 Stephon Castle SAS 350 19.5 .201 3.1 1.79 1.08 1.40 .90 1.31
1.11 .111 LeBron James LAL 384 18.7 .088 3.0 1.84 1.11 .67 .97 1.47
1.10 .100 Tyrese Maxey Phl 437 18.5 .069 2.8 1.41 1.24 .60 1.08 1.28
1.09 .137 Chet Holmgren OKC 251 25.9 .274 6.2 2.16 1.16 1.37 .88 1.13
1.08 .154 Scottie Barnes Tor 273 22.8 .174 8.1 1.97 1.06 .95 1.12 1.12
1.00 .167 Jayson Tatum Bos 218 23.9 .212 8.9 2.54 .90 .92 .95 1.15
.98 .089 De'Aaron Fox SAS 366 17.0 .159 1.5 1.51 .91 1.16 .76 1.15
.97 .138 Paolo Banchero Orl 273 20.0 .108 6.5 2.08 .87 .59 .98 1.18
xyzW xyz/G player tm min PER WS/48 BPM e484 pWin WS bWin eWin
.96 .159 Nikola Jokić Den 237 22.7 .133 8.0 2.29 .91 .63 .96 1.13
.93 .085 Jul. Champagnie SAS 310 16.4 .229 5.7 1.06 .72 1.42 1.04 .68
.89 .089 Rui Hachimura LAL 386 15.6 .134 3.6 .85 .83 1.03 1.05 .69
.88 .080 Dylan Harper SAS 277 19.9 .227 4.0 1.37 .88 1.26 .79 .79
.87 .109 Ajay Mitchell OKC 238 23.0 .234 3.9 1.86 .93 1.11 .67 .92
.87 .124 Joel Embiid Phl 233 23.7 .116 6.0 2.15 .95 .54 .80 1.05
.87 .087 Ayo Dosunmu Min 292 17.9 .146 5.4 1.35 .79 .85 .95 .82
.83 .064 Duncan Robinson Det 383 13.3 .139 3.9 .74 .61 1.06 1.08 .59
.76 .096 Is. Hartenstein OKC 204 22.8 .273 4.5 1.72 .79 1.11 .61 .73
.76 .076 Mikal Bridges NYK 292 16.7 .209 2.8 .97 .70 1.22 .72 .59
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Mon May 25, 2026 9:16 pm
by Crow
Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.
A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Tue May 26, 2026 9:07 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2026 9:16 pm
Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.
I've experimented with that, and in this rendition "wins" still add up to # of games played. The BPM component gives a bonus for opponent strength, while PER punishes team defense (relative to offense) and WS over-rewards winning margin. All occasionally get it 'right'.
A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.
Per game is included for the curious.
Quality matters more when it's sustained. Last year, Giannis had far and away the best PO rates, but for only 5 games. No one remembers or cares; and winning does matter.
Re: 2026 Playoff Summaries
Posted: Wed May 27, 2026 3:12 pm
by Mike G
MVP vs wannaVP
Thru 5 games of the WCF
Shai looks like a model of consistency, while Wemby may take 20 shots or 4 shots, get 20 rebounds or 4 rebounds.
Here are their regular season and playoff averages and their average deviations (from their averages) in each interval.
Code: Select all
Wemby USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM Shai USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM
RS 32.4 122 100 22.4 10.7 RS 33.5 134 108 26.4 11.7
avedev 5.2 17.1 11.0 7.4 7.9 avedev 3.7 18.6 8.9 5.9 6.4
Wemby USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM Shai USG% ORtg DRtg GmSc BPM
PO 27.6 121 99 21.0 9.9 PO 32.0 125 114 22.3 6.3
avedev 4.8 15.1 13.9 6.2 6.4 avedev 3.0 15.6 7.7 5.6 3.5
all ** 4.7 18.2 14.4 8.2 8.3
Wemby's playoff avedev omits his two 12-minute games (concussion and ejection) which were distinctly his 2 worst so far.
** - includes those 2 "games".
D-Rating is largely a Team measure, so Shai works with a consistent system, while SAS defense = Wemby defense, in large part.
In RS, Wemby's BPM variance was 23% bigger than Shai's. In PO almost twice as much.