APBRmetrics

Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
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2026 playoffs 2nd round

http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=10275

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Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Thu May 14, 2026 10:46 am
by Mike G
Cavs 3 - 2 Pistons
avg score 108.6 - 108.6
Pyth wins and eWins 2.50 - 2.50

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.71 Donovan Mitchell Cle   38  .584   28.3   6.3   2.5   1.0   2.2   .0   1.83
.57  Cade Cunningham Det   42  .550   23.0   5.3   6.3   1.0   5.7   .3   1.32
.54   Evan Mobley    Cle   38  .590   13.6   7.4   4.8   1.7   2.2  2.9   1.41
.53   James Harden   Cle   38  .550   19.3   5.1   6.1   1.7   4.4  1.1   1.35
.42   Tobias Harris  Det   38  .514   15.5   7.7   1.5   1.1    .9   .8   1.08

.39   Jarrett Allen  Cle   30  .657   16.6   8.0   1.6    .9   1.3  2.0   1.27
.30  Ausar Thompson  Det   29  .526    9.6   9.9   3.9   1.7   2.1  1.5   1.00
.26   Paul Reed      Det    8  .766   36.1  15.2   2.2    .7   3.0  1.7   3.18
.24  Duncan Robinson Det   26  .733   16.7   2.3   2.4   2.4    .7   .3    .93
.22   Max Strus      Cle   29  .635   12.4   6.8   1.8   1.5   1.3   .7    .75

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.20   Jalen Duren    Det   30  .500   10.7   9.6   2.6   1.0   2.9   .7    .67
.19   Caris LeVert   Det   19  .592   15.7   4.8   1.6   1.8    .4   .7   1.00
.19  Daniss Jenkins  Det   27  .441   10.9   5.9   3.6   1.1   1.2   .5    .69
.09  Isaiah Stewart  Det   11  .800   16.9   8.8   1.1    .0   2.2   .6    .78
.08  Dennis Schröder Cle   19  .632   13.6   2.8   5.1    .5   4.2   .7    .42

.04   Ron Holland    Det    6  .421    6.9   9.0    .0   2.7   1.3  2.2    .58
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    3  .600   10.4   6.7    .0   5.0    .0   .0    .91
.02   Marcus Sasser  Det    4  .750   18.1   4.5    .0   1.6   2.2   .0    .66
.01   Jaylon Tyson   Cle   13  .367    4.3   9.0   2.0    .0   1.7   .5    .08
.00   Sam Merrill    Cle   12  .528    9.5    .7   2.2   1.5    .6   .0    .04

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e490
-.01  Javonte Green  Det    5  .375    5.7   4.8    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.28
-.02  Dean Wade      Cle   23  .667    4.8   7.3    .3    .8   1.0   .0   -.09
shooting : Cle .584 - .557 Det + 3.7
rebounds: Det 40.4 - 37.4 Cle + 2.3
turnovers: Det 15.2 - 15.6 Cle + 0.5

Code: Select all

min. correl:    .79    .63    .74    .84     (1-10)         -.30   -.59   -.28    .12
. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e490      . Det   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e490
Harden   192   16.7   .083    2.5   1.35   Cunningham 210   17.4   .070    2.5   1.32
Mitchell 190   22.3   .156    3.3   1.83      Harris  189   15.6   .108    0.8   1.08
Mobley   188   18.6   .155    6.6   1.41      Duren   149   11.9   .035   -2.9    .67
Allen    149   19.8   .192    3.3   1.27     Thompson 145   15.9   .112    3.2   1.00
Strus    145   13.4   .124    2.8    .75      Jenkins 135   12.1   .062   -1.6    .69

Wade     114    6.5   .045   -1.2   -.09     Robinson 129   17.9   .190    8.5    .93
Schröder  96   10.7   .031   -1.3    .42      LeVert   94   19.2   .194    5.4   1.00
Tyson     64    4.5  -.045   -5.7    .08      Stewart  55   16.0   .149   -0.5    .78
Merrill   58    7.6   .046   -2.8    .04      Reed     40   39.7   .368   13.4   3.18
Ellis     17   17.1   .184    7.7    .91      Holland  31   10.5   .077   -0.1    .58

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e490      . Det   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e490
Bryant    10    8.5   .013   -6.4    .19      Green    25    1.4  -.103   -7.8   -.28
.                                             Sasser   18   17.9   .152    1.3    .66
.                                             Huerter   4    8.1  -.103    1.5   -.27
       
. totals       15.3   .108   2.07   1.00      . totals      16.0   .108   1.98   1.00
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Sat May 16, 2026 11:02 am
by Mike G
Pistons 3 - 3 Cavs
avg score 109.7 - 106.2
Pyth wins 3.64 - 2.36 , eWins 3.32 - 2.68

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.74 Donovan Mitchell Cle   38  .559   25.5   5.7   2.6    .9   2.3   .0   1.58
.60  Cade Cunningham Det   42  .546   22.1   4.8   6.3    .9   5.8   .3   1.17
.60   James Harden   Cle   38  .564   19.9   5.3   5.7   2.0   4.9   .9   1.29
.59   Evan Mobley    Cle   37  .570   14.0   7.0   4.3   1.6   2.4  2.7   1.29
.48   Jarrett Allen  Cle   30  .678   17.1   8.1   1.5    .9   1.3  1.8   1.30

.44   Tobias Harris  Det   36  .503   14.1   7.9   1.8   1.4   1.2   .7   1.01
.43   Paul Reed      Det   10  .779   42.9  15.6   2.2    .6   4.3  1.9   3.70
.43  Ausar Thompson  Det   28  .549   10.4  10.7   4.1   2.3   2.2  1.5   1.23
.37  Duncan Robinson Det   25  .750   19.2   2.6   2.5   2.2    .6   .2   1.20
.35   Jalen Duren    Det   30  .525   11.8  10.8   2.2   1.1   2.4  1.2    .96

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.26  Daniss Jenkins  Det   28  .474   11.6   5.7   3.6   1.0   1.0   .4    .77
.23   Caris LeVert   Det   21  .589   14.9   4.8   2.0   1.8   1.0   .9    .93
.22   Max Strus      Cle   29  .583   10.9   7.3   1.5   1.2   1.3   .6    .61
.11  Isaiah Stewart  Det   10  .750   16.7   9.3   1.0    .0   2.1   .6    .92
.08   Marcus Sasser  Det    6  .818   22.1   3.5    .9   1.8   2.3   .0   1.03

.04  Dennis Schröder Cle   19  .554   11.3   3.1   5.4    .4   4.7   .6    .16
.04   Ron Holland    Det    6  .421    6.2   8.9    .0   2.9   1.2  2.1    .53
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    3  .600   10.2   5.7   1.7   6.0   1.8   .0    .85
.03   Sam Merrill    Cle   13  .580   11.5   1.0   2.1   1.0    .5   .0    .21
.01   Jaylon Tyson   Cle   11  .406    4.8   8.5   2.0    .0   1.6   .5    .06

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
-.01  Javonte Green  Det    4  .375    5.3   5.0    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.26
-.04  Dean Wade      Cle   23  .679    4.9   6.6    .3    .6    .8   .0   -.16
shooting : Cle .572 - .568 Det + .6
rebounds: Det 40.8 - 37.8 Cle + 2.3
turnovers: Det 15.7 - 16.3 Cle + 0.9

Code: Select all

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden   229   16.8   .070    2.8   1.29   Cunningham 252   15.7   .061    1.2   1.17
Mitchell 227   19.9   .113    2.1   1.58      Harris  214   14.5   .107    0.2   1.01
Mobley   224   18.1   .128    6.1   1.29      Duren   177   14.6   .089   -1.3    .96
Allen    180   20.9   .198    4.2   1.30     Thompson 170   17.6   .157    5.0   1.23
Strus    174   11.8   .089    1.0    .61      Jenkins 166   13.1   .101   -0.4    .77

Wade     136    6.8   .043   -1.2   -.16     Robinson 150   18.8   .223    9.2   1.20
Schröder 111    7.5  -.036   -4.1    .16      LeVert  123   16.6   .169    4.4    .93
Merrill   78    9.6   .078   -1.1    .21      Stewart  59   14.5   .140   -1.3    .92
Tyson     67    5.3  -.037   -5.0    .06      Reed     57   39.2   .333   13.3   3.70
Ellis     20   16.2   .127    8.5    .85      Sasser   36   19.2   .173    5.1   1.03

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Bryant    12     .8  -.159  -12.7   -.25      Holland  33    9.5   .080   -0.9    .53
.                                             Green    25    1.9  -.077   -7.8   -.26

. totals       14.6   .086   1.61    .89     . totals       16.3   .126   2.36   1.11
min. correl:    .76    .53    .68    .82                    -.34   -.67   -.33   -.05

Spurs 4 - 2 Wolves
avg score 120.7 - 104.5
Pyth wins 5.23 - .77 , eWins 4.11 - 1.89

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.05  Vi. Wembanyama  SA   29  .598   26.2  14.2   3.0    .4   3.5  5.3   2.86
.79   Stephon Castle  SA   31  .656   26.7   6.3   6.6    .9   3.3   .4   2.05
.52   De'Aaron Fox    SA   32  .512   20.3   3.3   5.3   1.3   2.5   .4   1.32
.50   Dylan Harper    SA   25  .647   21.5   7.9   3.1   1.5   2.4   .7   1.61
.48  Anthony Edwards Min   34  .555   23.4   5.0   2.0    .8   3.4   .4   1.13

.38  Jul. Champagnie  SA   28  .616   13.8   7.5   2.0   2.1    .2   .2   1.10
.36   Naz Reid       Min   29  .632   15.3   8.5   2.0    .4   1.1   .6   1.00
.32   Devin Vassell   SA   31  .552   13.6   4.6   3.4   1.3   1.0   .6    .82
.21  Jaden McDaniels Min   32  .473   14.1   5.1   2.0    .6   1.5   .8    .54
.21   Rudy Gobert    Min   27  .460    7.5  10.1   1.7   1.5   1.7  1.4    .62

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   22  .439   11.0   5.7   4.5   2.1   2.4   .8    .75
.18   Mike Conley    Min   15  .773   14.4   2.2   5.2   1.7    .9   .0    .97
.18   Keldon Johnson  SA   18  .538   16.4   5.4   1.6   1.1   1.9   .6    .78
.14   Luke Kornet     SA   14  .700    8.8   7.3   1.1   1.8   1.6  4.3    .78
.08   Julius Randle  Min   33  .418   11.7   8.0   1.3    .8   3.6   .0    .20

.08  Harrison Barnes  SA    9  .679   11.5   7.6   1.7    .6    .7   .6    .72
.05 Terrence Shannon Min   25  .444   12.5   3.6   2.0    .5   1.8   .0    .15
-.02  Jaylen Clark   Min    6  .389    4.4   3.6    .7   1.1    .0   .0   -.25
-.02  Carter Bryant   SA   10  .615    8.8   6.5   2.4    .0   2.8   .0   -.14
-.03  Bones Hyland   Min    6  .094    1.2   3.5   2.9   1.0   2.0   .9   -.45
shooting : SA .596 - .495 Min + 13.6
rebounds: SA 50.2 - 43.8 Min + 4.9
turnovers: 14.2 - 14.2 + 0.0

Code: Select all

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Fox     189   14.6   .120   -0.6   1.31      Edwards 205   15.6   .018    1.8   1.12
Vassell 188   13.2   .162    2.1    .83      Randle  198    6.5  -.112   -6.7    .20
Castle  186   22.0   .267    5.0   2.04    McDaniels 189   10.5  -.013   -1.6    .55
Wemby   176   25.7   .246    7.0   2.86      Reid    175   16.8   .126    4.7   1.00
Champ'e 167   16.8   .244    5.2   1.10      Gobert  164   12.0   .030   -0.3    .61

Harper  150   21.6   .252    5.2   1.61      Shannon 147    6.9  -.033   -5.3    .16
Johnson 110   14.0   .132   -1.1    .78      Dosunmu 130   10.3  -.018    0.5    .76
Kornet   84   16.6   .230    3.9    .79      Conley   89   18.0   .184    8.9    .96
Bryant   61    5.1   .060   -3.5   -.11      Hyland   34   -8.2  -.413  -14.3   -.44
Barnes   51   18.6   .279    4.7    .73      Clark    33    6.0  -.008   -3.3   -.25

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
McL'lin  21   16.3   .267    6.2    .59     Anderson  26   11.7  -.047    0.1    .65
Olynyk   20   18.3   .194    5.0   1.35     Phillips  21    6.6   .001   -1.5   -.24
Waters   18   25.6   .284    6.4   1.68     Beringer  19   30.6   .203    7.3   2.15
Biyombo  11    9.7  -.016   -8.4    .46      Ingles   10   32.2   .263   21.8   2.10
Plumlee   8   12.9   .053    2.4    .90                  

. totals      17.7   .202   3.20   1.37     . totals       11.5   .004  -0.46    .63
min. correl:   .34    .20    .33    .54     min. correl:    .27    .05    .02    .30

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Mon May 18, 2026 1:09 pm
by Mike G
Cavs 4 - 3 Pistons
avg score 108.9 - 107.4
Pyth wins 3.81 - 3.19 , eWins 3.65 - 3.35

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
1.01  Do. Mitchell   Cle   37  .553   26.5   6.1   3.4   1.0   2.1   .1   1.91
.88   Evan Mobley    Cle   37  .587   15.5   8.1   4.6   1.8   2.4  2.7   1.65
.69   James Harden   Cle   38  .537   18.6   5.5   5.8   1.7   4.5   .8   1.27
.65   Jarrett Allen  Cle   29  .648   18.8   8.7   1.5   1.0   1.5  1.8   1.55
.64  Cade Cunningham Det   41  .527   20.7   4.5   6.0   1.0   5.5   .3   1.08

.45   Tobias Harris  Det   34  .483   13.2   7.6   1.9   1.4   1.2   .8    .93
.42  Ausar Thompson  Det   28  .514    9.4  10.1   3.5   2.0   2.1  1.7   1.03
.40   Paul Reed      Det    9  .731   33.7  14.2   2.2    .5   3.5  1.5   3.02
.39   Jalen Duren    Det   29  .515   11.5  10.7   2.4   1.0   2.7  1.4    .93
.35  Duncan Robinson Det   24  .752   18.5   2.4   2.4   2.1   1.2   .2   1.00

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
.31  Daniss Jenkins  Det   29  .485   12.4   5.0   3.7    .8   1.0   .4    .76
.25   Caris LeVert   Det   20  .615   15.0   4.3   2.1   1.7   1.1   .7    .88
.24   Max Strus      Cle   29  .580   10.4   6.9   1.7   1.6   1.1   .5    .59
.12   Sam Merrill    Cle   15  .703   16.8   1.1   2.2   1.1   1.0   .0    .56
.07  Isaiah Stewart  Det    9  .771   14.4   7.3    .9    .0   1.7   .5    .50

.04   Marcus Sasser  Det    8  .587   13.3   3.1   1.0   1.5   1.3   .0    .36
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    3  .750   13.2   4.4   1.3   4.5   2.8   .0    .64
.03   Ron Holland    Det    6  .440    6.6   8.2    .0   2.2    .9  1.6    .39
.03  Dennis Schröder Cle   18  .567   10.3   3.5   5.3    .6   4.4   .5    .11
.00   Thomas Bryant  Cle    2  .182    3.9   8.6   1.9   2.2   2.1   .0    .06

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e487
-.01  Jaylon Tyson   Cle   10  .382    4.3   7.6   1.8    .0   1.5   .5   -.09
-.02  Dean Wade      Cle   22  .750    5.2   7.4    .4    .5    .7   .0   -.07
-.02  Javonte Green  Det    4  .375    4.8   4.3    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.44
shooting : Cle .574 - .554 Det + 2.7
rebounds: Det 40.9 - 39.6 Cle + 1.0
turnovers: Det 15.6 - 15.9 Cle + 0.4

Code: Select all

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden   265   14.9   .070    1.2   1.27   Cunningham 289   14.2   .027    0.2   1.08
Mobley   260   19.5   .165    7.4   1.65      Harris  237   13.4   .076   -0.2    .93
Mitchell 258   21.0   .149    3.1   1.91      Duren   202   13.7   .060   -1.7    .93
Allen    204   21.9   .211    4.2   1.55      Jenkins 200   13.4   .097   -0.1    .76
Strus    202   12.2   .114    1.7    .59     Thompson 198   15.2   .108    3.2   1.03

Wade     157    7.8   .080   -0.1   -.07     Robinson 171   18.1   .187    8.4   1.00
Schröder 129    7.5  -.013   -3.5    .11      LeVert  140   17.4   .176    5.2    .88
Merrill  104   14.9   .170    3.1    .56      Stewart  65   14.3   .134   -1.3    .50
Tyson     71    4.3  -.032   -5.8   -.09      Reed     65   37.0   .306   11.7   3.02
Ellis     24   15.8   .144    7.8    .64      Sasser   59   14.1   .110    2.1    .36

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Bryant    16   -4.7  -.323  -19.7    .06      Holland  39   10.0   .074   -0.4    .39
Porter     6    7.9  -.084   -5.1    .51      Green    25    1.4  -.124   -7.8   -.44
Tomlin     6   33.8   .381   16.8   2.05      Lanier    7   -6.5  -.236  -10.8   -.71
.                                             Smith     6   30.6   .156   12.5   2.20
.                                             Huerter   4    8.1  -.137    1.5   -.36

. totals       15.2   .113   2.13   1.04     . totals       15.3   .099   1.77    .96
min. correl:    .66    .41    .54    .81                    -.51   -.77   -.40    .18
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