2011-12 eWins

[Mike G]

Categorical leaders, per 36 minutes and standardized. Minimum 180 minutes.

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Sco     per36 rates    tm       Reb    per36 rates    tm      Ast    per36 rates    tm
36.3   Bryant,Kobe    LAL      16.2   Howard,Dwight  Orl     12.0   Nash,Steve     Phx
33.4   James,Lebron   Mia      15.6   Bynum,Andrew   LAL     10.8   Rubio,Ricky    Min
30.5  Anthony,Carmelo NYK      14.5 Varejao,Anderson Cle     10.4   Rondo,Rajon    Bos
28.9   Durant,Kevin   Okl      14.2 Cousins,Demarcus Sac      9.3   Paul,Chris     LAC
26.5   Rose,Derrick   Chi      14.1   Camby,Marcus   Por      9.0   Calderon,Jose  Tor
26.3   Irving,Kyrie   Cle      13.9   Love,Kevin     Min      8.9   Rose,Derrick   Chi
26.1  Bargnani,Andrea Tor      12.9   Hibbert,Roy    Ind      8.8   Parker,Tony    SAS
25.4   Williams,Lou   Phi      12.9   Hill,Jordan    Hou      8.6   Williams,Deron NJN
25.3   Love,Kevin     Min      12.8   Humphries,Kris NJN      8.3   Felton,Raymond Por
24.8   Griffin,Blake  LAC      12.6   Hawes,Spencer  Phi      8.1   Miller,Andre   Den
24.5   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal      12.6  Haywood,Brendan Dal      8.0   Nelson,Jameer  Orl
24.4 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por      12.4   Haslem,Udonis  Mia      7.7   Lawson,Ty      Den
23.8   Allen,Ray      Bos      12.3 Dalembert,Samuel Hou      7.7   James,Lebron   Mia
23.1   Anderson,Ryan  Orl      12.3   Monroe,Greg    Det      7.6   Lowry,Kyle     Hou
22.9   Ellis,Monta    GSW      12.1   Kaman,Chris    NOH      7.5   Irving,Kyrie   Cle
22.3   Howard,Dwight  Orl      12.0   Noah,Joakim    Chi      7.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl
22.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl      12.0   Hilario,Nene   Den      7.2  Collison,Darren Ind
22.0   Monroe,Greg    Det      11.8   Mcgee,Javale   Was      7.1   Fisher,Derek   LAL
21.8 Stoudemire,Amare NYK      11.7   Asik,Omer      Chi      7.0   Turkoglu,Hedo  Orl
21.7   Harrington,Al  Den      11.7   Griffin,Blake  LAC      6.9   Sessions,Ramon Cle
                              
                              
Stl    per36 rates     tm      Blk    per36 rates     tm       TO    per36 rates   tm
3.3   Allen,Tony      Mem      4.0   Jordan,Deandre  LAC      4.6  Jackson,Stephen Mil
3.1   West,Delonte    Dal      3.7   Mcgee,Javale    Was      4.6   Irving,Kyrie   Cle
2.8   Conley,Mike     Mem      3.4   Ibaka,Serge     Okl      4.5   Williams,Deron NJN
2.8   Shumpert,Iman   NYK      2.9  Dalembert,Samuel Hou      4.3 Cousins,Demarcus Sac
2.7   Paul,Chris      LAC      2.7   O'Neal,Jermaine Bos      4.2 Westbrook,Russel Okl
2.5   Kidd,Jason      Dal      2.6  Cousins,Demarcus Sac      4.1   Rondo,Rajon    Bos
2.4   Gaines,Sundiata NJN      2.5   Gasol,Marc      Mem      4.0   Nash,Steve     Phx
2.4   Chalmers,Mario  Mia      2.4   Bynum,Andrew    LAL      4.0   Bryant,Kobe    LAL
2.2   Millsap,Paul    Uta      2.3  Thompson,Tristan Cle      4.0   Gordon,Ben     Det
2.2   Lowry,Kyle      Hou      2.2   Gortat,Marcin   Phx      3.9   James,Lebron   Mia

[Crow]

Kobe's current usage rate of 40% is higher than any 20+ minute per game player has averaged for a season in the history of the league. Passing the 2005-6 version of himself... on a team which was a first round knockout. His TS% is just the tiniest bit above his career worst and probably only a modest amount above current league average.

[Mike G]

Curious what anyone thinks of this. Some assists may be worth more than others. An assisted 3-pointer may be worth more than an assisted 2, for example.
Some teams regularly make more 3's, and some teams get more FT than others, relative to FG.

Only FG, however, are "assistable", and so assists as we count them aren't all equivalent in points per assist.
It's easy enough to get Pts/FG for each team. The league avg is 2.66 Pts/FG, and I've arrived at a factor by which assists may be multiplied, to arrive at more equivalency in assists, from team to team.
fac = (TmPts/FG/2.66)^2

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tm   Pts/FG   fac      tm   Pts/FG  fac
NYK   2.83   1.13      GSW   2.64   .99
Okl   2.82   1.12      Uta   2.61   .96
NJN   2.81   1.12      Tor   2.60   .96
Min   2.80   1.10      Phx   2.60   .95
Ind   2.80   1.10      LAL   2.59   .95
Sac   2.76   1.08      Chi   2.59   .95
Orl   2.74   1.06      SAS   2.59   .95
Dal   2.74   1.06      Det   2.59   .94
Cle   2.72   1.05      Mil   2.58   .94
LAC   2.71   1.04      Phl   2.57   .93
Por   2.71   1.04      NOH   2.55   .92
Den   2.70   1.03      Mem   2.55   .92
Bos   2.69   1.02      Hou   2.54   .91
Atl   2.68   1.01      Cha   2.54   .91
Mia   2.67   1.00      Was   2.52   .90

Of course, each player's Pts and FG could be subtracted from his team's totals, to arrive at that player's specific assist-factor.
The Knicks are 5th in both FT/G and 3FG/G.
Wiz are near the bottom in both.

[EvanZ]

Right now I keep track of whether an assist was for a 2-pt or 3-pt shot. Would it help you to have those data? One of these days I will get around to tracking assists on the types of shots that are distinguished in the pbp data (dunks, layups, hooks, tips, in addition to 2-pt or 3-pt jumpers). Maybe that will be useful.

[Mike G]

Right now I keep track of whether an assist was for a 2-pt or 3-pt shot. Would it help you to have those data? One of these days I will get around to tracking assists on the types of shots that are distinguished in the pbp data (dunks, layups, hooks, tips, in addition to 2-pt or 3-pt jumpers). Maybe that will be useful.

Thanks, but:
a) FT points, which are never granted assists, are a large part of this 'correction', and
b) this probably dwarfs any difference in individuals' tending to assist more 3's or dunks or whatever.

[EvanZ]

Thanks, but:
a) FT points, which are never granted assists, are a large part of this 'correction', and
b) this probably dwarfs any difference in individuals' tending to assist more 3's or dunks or whatever.

Speaking of (a), do you remember if anybody looked into the question of potential assists on foul shots? That's something I would spend considerable time on in the future. It's interesting.

[Mike G]

Much easier is to assume that FT and FG are equally assisted, per scorer and per passer.
In other words, if 60% of a player's FG have been assisted, then 60% of his FT are, as well.
And if a player has assisted 30% of teammates' FG, then he's assisted 30% of FT also.

These assumptions are never going to be 100% true; but they may be within 10% of accurate, 90% of the time.
Generally, I don't believe in making 10 times as much work, for a 10% improvement.

[EvanZ]

It's easier to make that assumption, of course. Like I said, it's something that *I* would be interested in verifying, nevertheless.

[Mike G]

With the season 24.3% finished

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e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.6  James,Lebron    Mia   37   .613   33.3   9.0   7.9   2.1   3.8  1.1   3.28
13.4  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   38   .529   33.7   5.6   5.0   1.2   3.6   .3   2.57
12.8  Howard,Dwight   Orl   39   .538   21.8  16.4   2.7   1.3   3.2  2.2   2.44
11.5  Love,Kevin      Min   39   .528   24.4  13.5   1.7    .9   2.7   .5   2.15
11.4  Durant,Kevin    Okl   37   .582   29.1   7.7   3.7   1.2   3.7  1.2   2.28

10.5 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   38   .531   24.8   9.0   2.8   1.3   1.8   .7   2.04
10.1  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   36   .502   28.3   7.4   4.8   1.5   3.5   .4   2.21
10.0  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .513   22.2  12.4   3.2   1.0   3.0   .6   1.98
9.3  Westbrook,Russel Okl   33   .510   24.8   5.6   7.2   2.0   3.9   .2   2.04
9.1   Smith,Josh      Atl   34   .489   19.9  10.9   4.0   1.6   2.6  1.5   1.97

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.1   Millsap,Paul    Uta   30   .578   23.0  11.5   2.7   2.2   1.5   .7   2.21
8.7   Bosh,Chris      Mia   36   .569   23.0   8.7   2.4   1.1   2.8  1.2   1.76
8.7   Jefferson,Al    Uta   33   .501   22.2  11.3   2.1   1.1   1.4  1.5   2.06
8.6   Gasol,Marc      Mem   38   .577   16.8  11.0   3.0   1.1   1.8  2.2   1.69
8.3   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   30   .537   23.5  11.2   2.1   1.4   2.1   .6   2.04

8.2   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   31   .602   24.1   9.6   1.0   1.3    .6   .2   1.96
8.1   Monroe,Greg     Det   32   .572   19.7  12.9   2.9   1.3   2.8   .8   1.84
8.0   Parker,Tony     SAS   33   .496   21.4   3.8   8.5   1.3   2.8   .1   1.79
7.8   Rose,Derrick    Chi   37   .545   25.5   3.6   9.0    .9   3.2   .5   2.14
7.7   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   29   .550   21.0  12.9   3.3    .4   3.1  1.5   1.93

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
7.7  Jennings,Brandon Mil   36   .535   22.4   3.4   4.8   1.8   2.4   .2   1.56
7.6   Gasol,Pau       LAL   37   .544   17.8   9.5   2.7    .6   1.7  1.3   1.50
7.6   Gortat,Marcin   Phx   30   .602   20.5  12.2   1.0    .9   2.2  2.2   1.86
7.5   Johnson,Joe     Atl   36   .531   21.8   4.2   4.2    .9   1.6   .3   1.51
7.4   Ellis,Monta     GSW   38   .491   22.8   2.9   6.2   1.7   3.7   .3   1.53

7.4   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   31   .533   24.9   7.0   3.0   1.0   2.1   .8   1.87
7.3   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   34   .541   17.5   6.9   4.8   2.2   2.2   .7   1.56
7.3   Lowry,Kyle      Hou   37   .561   18.1   7.1   7.6   2.1   3.7   .3   1.66
7.2   Deng,Luol       Chi   38   .493   18.0   7.5   2.7   1.2   1.7   .7   1.38
7.1  Gallinari,Danilo Den   34   .597   20.1   6.1   3.3   1.9   1.9   .5   1.52

31-40 Lee, Rondo, Bynum, Gay, Irving, Lawson, Nash, D Williams, Duncan, Garnett
41-50 Rubio, David West, Cousins, Paul, Jamison, McGee, Brand, Jack, Conley, Lou Williams
51-60 Pierce, Hawes, Varejao, Bargnani, Harden, Humphries, Wall, Turkoglu, Holiday, Martin

[Mike G]

The season is at 32.8%

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e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.8  James,LeBron    Mia   38   .610   33.9   9.1   7.8   1.8   4.1   .7   3.24
13.5  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   38   .532   33.9   6.2   5.0   1.2   3.8   .4   2.60
12.5  Howard,Dwight   Orl   38   .529   22.8  16.2   2.3   1.5   3.3  2.0   2.44
12.2  Love,Kevin      Min   39   .564   25.9  13.2   1.6   1.0   2.5   .5   2.27
12.1  Durant,Kevin    Okl   37   .593   30.1   8.5   3.3   1.2   3.9  1.3   2.39

11.0 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   36   .538   26.5   9.2   3.2   1.1   2.2   .8   2.22
10.5  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .525   23.1  12.3   3.0    .9   2.9  1.0   2.08
10.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl   34   .520   26.5   5.5   6.9   2.4   4.5   .3   2.14
9.2   Millsap,Paul    Uta   32   .558   22.1  11.8   2.4   1.9   1.5  1.0   2.13
9.1   Smith,Josh      Atl   34   .477   19.3  11.0   3.9   1.5   2.6  2.2   1.96

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.1   Rose,Derrick    Chi   37   .552   27.7   3.5   8.2   1.0   3.2   .7   2.25
9.0   Bosh,Chris      Mia   36   .574   23.4   9.0   2.5   1.0   2.3   .9   1.83
9.0   Anthony,Carmelo NYK   35   .501   27.2   7.4   5.2   1.3   3.5   .4   2.17
8.5   Gasol,Marc      Mem   38   .545   16.3  10.9   2.9   1.1   1.   2.2   1.63
8.5  Jennings,Brandon Mil   36   .535   23.2   3.6   5.5   1.8   2.4   .2   1.71

8.4   Monroe,Greg     Det   32   .557   20.2  13.0   2.5   1.7   2.8   .6   1.89
8.2   Gasol,Pau       LAL   37   .547   18.6   9.8   2.9    .5   1.6  1.2   1.60
8.2   Jefferson,Al    Uta   33   .503   22.5  11.3   2.5   1.0   1.6  1.8   2.13
8.0   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   29   .542   21.2  13.1   2.8    .6   3.3  2.4   2.01
8.0   Pierce,Paul     Bos   33   .553   25.0   6.9   6.3   1.2   3.6   .6   2.07

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.0   Parker,Tony     SAS   33   .494   21.2   3.5   8.8   1.2   2.9   .0   1.75
8.0   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   31   .528   21.7  11.3   2.1   1.4   2.0   .7   1.90
7.9   Johnson,Joe     Atl   36   .533   23.2   4.4   4.1    .9   1.8   .3   1.62
7.9   Gortat,Marcin   Phx   32   .574   19.8  12.7   1.0    .8   1.9  2.1   1.82
7.9   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   35   .537   17.5   7.5   5.5   2.1   2.2   .6   1.65

7.8   Paul,Chris      LAC   36   .600   21.9   3.9   9.2   2.6   2.2   .1   2.12
7.6   Irving,Kyrie    Cle   29   .588   27.1   4.9   6.4   1.0   4.4   .6   1.95
7.6   Williams,Deron  NJN   37   .522   21.7   4.0   8.2   1.0   4.5   .3   1.58
7.5   Bynum,Andrew    LAL   34   .555   21.1  13.9   1.3    .5   2.6  2.1   1.97
7.5   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   30   .591   23.8   9.7   1.0   1.1    .7   .4   1.91

#31-40 : Garnett, Lee, Gallinari, Duncan, Lowry, Nash, Ellis, Granger, Cousins, Gay
41-50 : Varejao, T Chandler, McGee, Kev Martin, Brand, Wade, Stoudemire, Rubio, Marion, G Wallace
51-60: Lawson, Jack, Nowitzki, David West, Holiday, Nene, Humphries, Teague, Jamison, Conley

[EvanZ]

Brandon Jennings is looking good for (true) MIP.

[Mike G]

I had not noticed Marc Gasol becoming better than Pau.
The difference was greater in the Jan. 23 post.
Pau scores more, and Marc does more of everything else.
http://bkref.com/tiny/JgfTw

[Mike G]

At .391 of the season, Dwight has solidly seized the #2 spot.
Rose has displaced Millsap from the top 10, and Parker is knocking at the door.
Pau Gasol is coming on strong.

Code: Select all

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
15.5  James,Lebron    Mia   38   .602   31.5   8.9   7.6   1.7   4.1   .7   3.13
13.6  Howard,Dwight   Orl   38   .543   23.2  15.7   2.3   1.5   3.1  2.1   2.61
13.1  Bryant,Kobe     LAL   39   .526   32.1   5.7   4.8   1.1   3.6   .3   2.50
12.7  Durant,Kevin    Okl   38   .584   28.5   8.5   3.6   1.2   3.6  1.4   2.44
11.5  Love,Kevin      Min   39   .564   25.4  12.9   1.7    .9   2.5   .5   2.31

11.3 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   37   .547   26.2   9.0   3.1   1.1   2.3   .8   2.25
11.0  Griffin,Blake   LAC   37   .539   22.8  12.2   3.2   1.0   2.8  1.0   2.17
10.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl   35   .527   25.6   5.4   6.8   2.1   4.6   .4   2.09
9.6   Rose,Derrick    Chi   35   .550   27.4   3.8   8.7    .9   3.0   .7   2.42
9.4   Smith,Josh      Atl   34   .487   19.3  10.6   3.7   1.6   2.7  2.3   2.04

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.2   Parker,Tony     SAS   34   .509   23.1   3.4   8.7   1.2   2.8   .1   1.98
9.0   Gasol,Pau       LAL   37   .544   18.9  10.4   2.9    .5   1.7  1.3   1.76
8.9   Millsap,Paul    Uta   31   .564   21.1  12.2   2.5   1.7   1.9   .9   2.08
8.8   Monroe,Greg     Det   33   .562   20.2  12.9   2.5   1.7   2.8   .6   1.95
8.6   Pierce,Paul     Bos   34   .544   24.2   7.0   6.1   1.1   3.2   .5   2.08

8.5   Bosh,Chris      Mia   36   .562   21.6   8.8   2.4   1.0   2.3   .8   1.72
8.4   Bynum,Andrew    LAL   35   .562   21.0  13.8   1.3    .5   2.6  2.2   2.10
8.4   Gasol,Marc      Mem   38   .540   16.5  10.4   2.6   1.1   1.9  2.2   1.63
8.4   Anthony,Carmelo NYK   34   .496   26.2   6.9   5.0   1.2   3.3   .4   2.12
8.3   Jefferson,Al    Uta   33   .497   22.0  10.7   2.5    .8   1.6  1.9   2.12

e66    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.2   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   30   .544   22.1  10.9   2.4   1.3   1.9   .6   1.99
8.1   Duncan,Tim      SAS   28   .511   21.1  12.2   3.8   1.0   2.5  1.8   2.23
8.0   Williams,Deron  NJN   37   .524   21.3   3.8   8.1   1.0   4.3   .4   1.62
7.9   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   31   .529   20.3  10.2   3.5    .9   2.4  1.2   1.89
7.9   Paul,Chris      LAC   36   .584   20.4   4.0   9.5   2.5   2.1   .1   2.05

7.7   Gortat,Marcin   Phx   32   .571   18.6  12.2   1.0    .7   1.9  1.9   1.75
7.7   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   30   .529   19.2  12.6   2.5    .6   3.0  2.3   1.87
7.6  Jennings,Brandon Mil   36   .521   21.1   3.6   5.2   1.7   2.3   .3   1.56
7.5   Johnson,Joe     Atl   36   .526   22.0   4.5   4.0    .9   1.8   .3   1.54
7.5   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   35   .522   16.4   7.2   5.4   1.9   2.0   .5   1.57
7.5   Ellis,Monta     GSW   38   .507   22.1   3.4   5.6   1.7   3.6   .4   1.53

#32-40 : R Anderson, Wade, D Lee, Gay, Cousins, Lowry, Irving, Granger, Nash
41-50 : Varejao, Nowitzki, Jamison, T Chandler, Gallinari, Amare', Rubio, T Evans, Humphries, McGee
51-60 : Lawson, Lou Williams, Marion, Noah, David West, Rondo, Wall, G Wallace, Harden, Holiday

[kjb]

Is that Javale McGee in your top 50 for eW?

McGee looks a lot better in the box score than he does on the court. He blocks a lot of shots, but his defense is bad.

[Mike G]

[I highlighted that because Umphrey's McGee is a band, out of Chicago.]

McGee is about 50% better rebounder than anyone else on the team. He also leads the NBA in blocks% (3rd year running).
His eff% is hardly great, at .502; but the rest of his team shoots .475.
Three players, all guards, are better scorers for the Wizards. He looks like the only credible inside scorer.

The team is not the worst in the league -- the Hornets are vying for worst team of all time.
They're headed for 23.6 eWins on the year. Someone is keeping them competitive, at least some of the time.
Their defense (25th in the league) is somewhat better than their offense (29th).
I suspect maybe his D is bad relative to his blocks and his height; but even if his priorities are questionable, he's still got some strengths.
He's 3rd on the team in minutes, well ahead of #4 (Rashard Lewis).

His PER is tops on the team, his WS 2nd.