APBRmetrics

Mike G wrote:

Understood. So, how do rookies have 2-yr rates which are substantially different from 1-yr?
Are all those minutes (and the teammate and opponent 2-yr rates) calculated as part of the time said rookies were "off court"?

mystic goes into the details really well imo, but my quick answer would be that "they aren't substantially different". Biyombo's 1 year APM and 2 year APM are not even one standard error apart from each other.

I just wrote an article on y-t-y variation in A4PM (adjusted four factors +/-) and also got y-t-y RAPM in there (RAPM calculated by me, not Jerry).

http://thecity2.com/2012/04/29/year-to-year-a4pm/

OK. Using replacement level (and fixing my wrong numbers), I have Kemba as the worst player in the league, at -3.5 WARP.

I have Kemba as the worst player in the league, at -3.5 WARP.

This still isn't clear.
a) Kemba Walker led the league in negative wins relative to a replacement player?
Or (b) he had the worst per-minute WARP rate of any player (above some minutes threshold)?

If (b), then teammates should have gotten more minutes, and he should have gotten fewer.
If (a), then some teammates (and others) may have been even worse, and they got even fewer minutes (and fewer negative WARP?)

I have him as the 2nd-best player (after Maggette) on the 2nd-worst team of all time.
PER sees him as their best, WS/48 as median on the team.
These are all per minute metrics.

If they'd just benched Walker and picked up some player from the D-League (who may or may not average 16 pts, 5 reb, and 6 ast per 36 in the NBA), they'd have won 3-4 more games?
Are there such players on the streets?

As I stated about a week ago "Bobcats with Walker instead of Augustin but with the same other four were 2 points worse." So the team was better with Augustin in modest sized samples. But prior informed and non-prior informed RAPM have both as very very low rated / terrible and not really distinguishable. Maybe next year will a tiebreaker.

Augustin directly provided about 2 less pts per 36 minutes but over 2 more assists and though were probably other differences. From RAPM it appears Augustin had a more positive impact on team offense despite scoring less. Augustin was quite close to the weak team eFG% while Walker was well below. Walker shot more often and passed less. Team eFG% was about 1.5 %pts higher with Augustin on the court compared to Walker. Walker's style of play and performance may have been harmful even to the worst offense in the league. That is what his very poor offense RAPM suggests. Only 3 or 4 players had a worse estimated impact. We'll see if that was a rookie phase and taking on too big a role and whether he develops. He could of course. Maybe there are significant multicollinearity impacts.


Team with the same 4 other players did perform 3 pts better with Walker over undrafted Corey Higgins. But non-prior informed RAPM has Higgins estimated as better on player impact by a pretty healthy amount. Play Higgins more next season and analyze the results by various means including RAPM and one may be able to make a better choice between the team impact of the lottery pick and the D-league call-up.

It is hard to say a lot for sure or quickly. Lots more analysis of APM, boxscore, video could better inform the discussion. I admit that APM results are just the start of an analysis, not the end of it; but I don't care about the players enough, under current circumstances, to invest more time into this issue. But I am not going to take Walker's boxscore rating alone as an indication that he is fine or will be fine. He looks really bad so far on both RAPM and key discrete boxscore stats.

Evan has Walker between Eric Maynor and Norris Cole here http://thecity2.files.wordpress.com/201 ... am_fan.png. Well-regarded backup to some in one case, poor performing backup in the other case. There are enough metrics and stats that I use that say Walker was a really terrible starting point guard. Have any recovered from his depths on all these fronts to average or better than that? Maybe but it probably less likely than 50/50 and maybe lots less likely. Hence my guess / opinion (based on quick review). Durant as a rookie had terrible RAPM playing out of position for a terrible coach but he still shot a heck of a lot better than Walker.

But is Augustin a "replacement player"? I'd say unequivocally No. You can't find a player of that caliber outside the NBA.

Who actually would 'replace' Walker's minutes? Cory Higgins?
If there's a better player available, why isn't he on the team, and Higgins on the street?

Kemba was bad this year, but I'm not too concerned about that for the future. Point guards usually take at least a couple years to develop and it's not uncommon for a talented point guard to struggle early on. Deron Williams, Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Terrell Brandon all had their issues at age 21 and turned it around.

If I had to guess, I'd say Kemba's upside will be limited by his size and his late development to a distributor role, but he's obviously talented. I'm with Mike in that it's hard for me to believe that a 15 PER player whose team was better with him on the court than without him is the worst player in basketball, or worse than a replacement player. I'd keep giving him big minutes at the point ... he's a better PG prospect than a 24 year old Augustin imo.

Mike G wrote:

Bobcats with Walker instead of Augustin but with the same other four were 2 points worse.

Even if so, is Augustin a "replacement player"? I'd say unequivocally No. You can't find a player of that caliber outside the NBA.

Who actually would 'replace' Walker's minutes? Cory Higgins?
If there's a better player available, why isn't he on the team, and Higgins on the street?

C.J. Watson was a D-Leaguer. Isaiah Thomas was the 60th man drafted last year. Jeremy Lin...

Bobcats invested a lot in Kemba by drafting him that high. Big mistake or bigger mistake to stick with him for too long? Kings played Isaiah over Jimmer.

YaoPau wrote: I'm with Mike in that it's hard for me to believe that a 15 PER player whose team was better with him on the court than without him is the worst player in basketball, or worse than a replacement player.

82 games had him worse on the court than off by raw +/- up until the last few weeks of the season and he is also estimated as worse by rapm for the season.

EvanZ wrote: C.J. Watson was a D-Leaguer. Isaiah Thomas was the 60th man drafted last year. Jeremy Lin...

Right. And they're not available. Watson's been in the NBA for 5 years.
Check out Watson at 27 vs Walker at 21:
http://bkref.com/tiny/Q9S7x

Same FG%, Watson better at 3's, Walker at getting FT.
Kemba's more productive overall (and fewer TO), better PER than CJ's ever had.
Watson plays for a much better team. That's the main difference I see, other than age.

Comparison in my 'standardized' stats (relative to team and opponent rates) :Neither player looks close to "worst player in the NBA".