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Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:03 pm
by Mike G
Clipps 3, Grizz 2
avg score: Mem 95.6 - 93.0 LAC
Pyth wins: Mem 2.95 - 2.05 LAC; eWins: 2.73 - 2.27
now with "defensive" creditCode: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.84 Paul,Chris LAC 40 .577 22.8 5.1 7.4 2.5 3.1 .2 1.99
.63 Conley,Mike Mem 39 .598 17.2 3.9 8.1 .6 2.1 .0 1.55
.59 Gasol,Marc Mem 37 .566 14.2 8.0 4.0 .2 1.4 1.8 1.54
.57 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .561 21.8 7.7 2.4 2.0 2.9 .0 1.47
.39 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .502 19.1 6.9 1.4 1.3 2.7 .0 .94
.38 Randolph,Zach Mem 34 .483 14.6 10.7 1.3 1.1 1.9 .2 1.06
.28 Evans,Reggie LAC 23 .500 4.8 13.5 .0 1.5 1.5 .3 1.17
.20 Speights,Marrees Mem 16 .487 15.3 12.1 1.0 .8 .8 .8 1.26
.18 Jordan,Deandre LAC 22 .500 5.7 7.8 1.0 .3 2.0 3.9 .80
.18 Mayo,O.J. Mem 24 .454 15.4 5.8 3.8 2.0 4.2 .3 .73
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Pondexter,Quincy Mem 17 .794 13.6 6.0 .5 1.1 1.1 .0 .89
.15 Allen,Tony Mem 23 .493 10.0 6.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 .62
.12 Williams,Mo LAC 23 .500 16.7 1.9 2.9 .9 2.4 .6 .51
.08 Young,Nick LAC 19 .656 15.7 1.9 .4 .3 1.4 1.0 .39
.07 Foye,Randy LAC 28 .565 10.7 3.7 2.5 .3 2.1 .3 .26
.07 Bledsoe,Eric LAC 12 .487 10.2 4.7 2.9 1.1 1.6 .5 .55
.02 Butler,Caron LAC 20 .432 11.9 3.9 1.2 1.1 2.5 .3 .08
.01 Martin,Kenyon LAC 17 .429 3.8 5.1 .0 .8 1.2 3.5 .06
.01 Cunningham,Dante Mem 9 .375 3.1 7.7 .0 .7 .7 1.4 .09
shooting: LAC .542 - .521 Mem
rebounds: Mem 40.6 - 35.5 LAC
turnovers: Mem 13.8 - 15.2 LAC
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 2:02 pm
by Mike G
Nuggets 3, Lakers 3
avg score: Den 98.3 - 96.3 LA
Pyth wins 3.40 - 2.60; eWins 3.20 - 2.80
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.86 Bynum,Andrew LA 37 .598 18.5 10.5 1.2 .2 1.2 3.6 1.89
.82 Bryant,Kobe LA 40 .531 29.3 4.4 3.3 1.2 3.0 .2 1.65
.66 Lawson,Ty Den 33 .553 21.5 2.2 5.3 1.3 1.1 .2 1.58
.54 Miller,Andre Den 29 .543 17.3 5.6 5.8 1.9 2.5 .2 1.51
.51 Mcgee,Javale Den 25 .482 12.9 12.2 .8 1.0 1.0 4.2 1.63
.47 Faried,Kenneth Den 29 .549 15.0 11.8 .5 .8 2.1 1.7 1.29
.41 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .444 10.1 7.4 3.2 .7 1.2 2.2 .92
.39 Gallinari,Danilo Den 33 .469 16.0 5.7 2.1 .7 .9 .6 .97
.32 Brewer,Corey Den 18 .551 20.5 4.0 1.7 2.1 .7 .7 1.47
.24 Sessions,Ramon LA 35 .470 12.8 3.9 3.6 .5 1.6 .0 .56
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.22 Hill,Jordan LA 22 .450 9.1 12.8 .2 .3 1.4 1.1 .81
.16 Ebanks,Devin LA 18 .458 10.5 6.2 1.4 1.0 .7 1.7 .74
.12 Afflalo,Arron Den 32 .439 10.5 3.9 2.4 .9 1.5 .2 .30
.11 Mozgov,Timofey Den 14 .464 11.0 7.9 1.1 .9 1.8 1.8 .65
.10 Harrington,Al Den 22 .349 9.1 7.2 1.1 .5 .5 .3 .35
.06 Blake,Steve LA 27 .485 7.0 3.1 3.2 .9 1.1 .2 .18
.02 Barnes,Matt LA 22 .310 5.9 6.2 3.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 .08
-.02 Koufos,Kosta Den 5 .333 2.1 14.6 .0 .0 4.2 1.4 -.29
shooting: LA .493 - .492 Den
rebounding: LA 47.0 - 46.7 Den
turnovers: Den 9.5 - 11.5 LA
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 1:42 am
by Crow
"... now with 'defensive' credit..."
what changed?
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 10:49 am
by Mike G
Credit is given for minutes played with fewer than avg FGA.
NBA avg is right around 3 minutes per FGA, so I use the ratio (Min/FGA/3).
Kobe is at .51, Gasol is at 1.02, Steve Blake is 1.65, in the playoffs.
So Gasol shoots as often as NBA avg, Kobe twice as often, and Blake plays 65% more minutes than normal to get his shot attempts.
So it's not entirely a "defensive" adjustment, but a "non offense/boxscore" adjustment.
I'm taking the square root (or close) of these ratios: Kobe's rate total is multiplied by .74 and Blake's by 1.25
The adjustment will be more complex for regular season, but for single-opponent playoff series, it may work this way.
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 2:14 am
by Crow
Seems pretty consistent that in the first round teams averaged about 5-6 guys who were +0.02 per game or better on eWins. That would probably suggest that benches don't matter much. Not sure immediately if I agree on that basis alone.
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 12:51 pm
by Mike G
Grizzlies 3, Clippers 3
Avg score: Mem 94.7 - 92.2 LAC
Pyth wins: 3.53 - 2.47; eWins 3.26 - 2.74
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.94 Paul,Chris LAC 40 .569 21.6 5.2 7.7 2.6 3.1 .2 1.90
.75 Gasol,Marc Mem 37 .580 16.4 8.3 4.0 .3 1.6 1.6 1.62
.75 Conley,Mike Mem 40 .597 16.8 3.9 8.5 .5 2.3 .0 1.51
.73 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .567 22.2 7.3 3.2 2.2 2.7 .0 1.59
.54 Randolph,Zach Mem 35 .475 15.1 12.1 1.3 1.0 1.9 .7 1.23
.45 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .491 18.0 6.9 1.8 1.2 2.6 .2 .91
.35 Evans,Reggie LAC 23 .479 5.3 13.6 .0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.20
.24 Jordan,Deandre LAC 21 .500 6.8 7.8 .9 .6 1.7 3.6 .90
.23 Speights,Marrees Mem 15 .500 16.0 12.3 .9 .7 1.4 1.1 1.21
.18 Mayo,O.J. Mem 23 .464 14.6 5.3 4.0 1.7 4.1 .2 .63
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Bledsoe,Eric LAC 14 .500 13.3 5.0 4.7 1.2 1.6 .4 .95
.16 Allen,Tony Mem 25 .461 9.7 5.4 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 .53
.16 Pondexter,Quincy Mem 17 .769 13.1 5.9 .8 1.0 1.6 .0 .75
.09 Williams,Mo LAC 21 .461 14.9 1.7 2.7 1.1 2.1 .5 .35
.07 Foye,Randy LAC 27 .505 10.5 3.3 2.7 .4 2.0 .2 .20
.06 Martin,Kenyon LAC 17 .550 6.7 4.7 .0 .6 .9 3.4 .28
.06 Young,Nick LAC 19 .611 13.5 1.6 .3 .9 1.2 .9 .24
.01 Butler,Caron LAC 22 .453 11.7 3.2 .9 .8 1.9 .3 .03
shooting: LAC .531 - .517 Mem
rebounding: Mem 41.8 - 34.9 LAC
turnovers LAC 13.8 - 14.8 Mem
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 2:03 pm
by Mike G
Los Angeles Lakers 4, Denver Nuggets 3
Average score: Den 96.7 - 96.3 LA
Pythagorean wins: Den 3.60 - 3.40 LA; eWins 3.55 - 3.45
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.92 Bryant,Kobe LA 40 .526 27.8 3.8 4.0 1.0 2.9 .3 1.56
.85 Bynum,Andrew LA 37 .557 17.4 10.9 1.2 .3 1.1 3.8 1.55
.75 Lawson,Ty Den 34 .561 21.9 2.5 5.6 1.0 1.2 .1 1.49
.64 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .464 12.9 8.4 4.0 .7 1.1 2.4 1.21
.54 Mcgee,Javale Den 26 .455 12.2 12.6 .9 1.0 .8 4.4 1.43
.53 Miller,Andre Den 28 .491 15.2 6.6 7.0 1.6 3.1 .2 1.27
.44 Faried,Kenneth Den 28 .553 15.0 12.2 .7 .9 2.6 1.5 1.09
.38 Gallinari,Danilo Den 32 .443 15.4 5.4 2.6 .8 1.5 .7 .83
.31 Brewer,Corey Den 17 .500 19.1 4.1 1.7 2.2 .6 .6 1.27
.28 Sessions,Ramon LA 32 .448 13.1 3.5 4.2 .6 1.6 .0 .60
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.26 Harrington,Al Den 23 .412 14.8 6.3 1.3 .7 .7 .2 .76
.22 Afflalo,Arron Den 33 .466 12.3 3.7 2.8 .8 1.4 .3 .47
.21 Blake,Steve LA 28 .578 10.8 3.0 3.6 1.1 1.3 .4 .51
.19 Hill,Jordan LA 20 .432 9.7 12.3 .2 .3 1.6 1.0 .65
.17 Ebanks,Devin LA 15 .458 11.6 6.2 1.6 1.1 .7 1.8 .76
.13 Mozgov,Timofey Den 14 .483 11.0 8.1 1.0 .8 1.9 2.3 .61
.11 Barnes,Matt LA 20 .304 7.1 6.9 3.6 1.9 2.9 1.3 .38
.09 Artest,Ron LA 6 .469 12.3 3.8 1.5 3.2 .8 1.6 .93
-.01 Koufos,Kosta Den 4 .333 2.6 14.5 .0 .0 4.3 1.4 -.20
Effective shooting: LA .489 - .486 Den
Rebounds per game: Den 47.6 - 47.3 LA
Turnovers per game: Den 10.7 - 11.4 LA
Re: 2012 West Conf playoffs 1st round
Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 12:57 pm
by Mike G
Los Angeles Clippers 4, Memphis Grizzlies 3
Average score: Mem 91.4 - 90.7 LAC
Pythagorean wins: Mem 3.62 - 3.38 LAC; eWins 3.56 - 3.44
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.13 Paul,Chris LAC 39 .559 21.9 5.7 8.0 2.5 3.3 .1 2.00
.83 Gasol,Marc Mem 37 .586 17.3 7.6 3.6 .3 1.8 1.8 1.52
.79 Griffin,Blake LAC 35 .541 20.8 7.1 3.1 2.2 2.6 .3 1.52
.70 Conley,Mike Mem 40 .538 14.4 3.5 7.9 .8 2.1 .0 1.21
.59 Randolph,Zach Mem 35 .455 13.9 11.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 .6 1.13
.57 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .496 18.4 7.0 1.6 1.2 2.7 .3 .99
.38 Evans,Reggie LAC 22 .479 5.1 14.6 .3 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.16
.28 Bledsoe,Eric LAC 14 .513 16.2 5.4 6.2 1.4 1.8 .4 1.40
.28 Speights,Marrees Mem 14 .500 16.6 12.1 .9 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.34
.23 Mayo,O.J. Mem 23 .411 13.1 6.3 4.1 1.9 3.9 .2 .68
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Jordan,Deandre LAC 22 .463 5.8 7.4 .9 .7 1.4 3.3 .63
.17 Martin,Kenyon LAC 18 .589 9.5 6.9 .0 .5 1.1 3.5 .65
.17 Allen,Tony Mem 24 .449 10.1 5.4 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.5 .49
.16 Williams,Mo LAC 21 .466 16.0 1.5 3.0 1.2 2.1 .5 .53
.15 Pondexter,Quincy Mem 16 .733 12.9 5.7 .7 1.2 1.5 .0 .64
.14 Young,Nick LAC 19 .606 16.8 2.0 .6 .8 1.6 .8 .49
.10 Foye,Randy LAC 27 .495 10.8 3.3 3.2 .6 2.1 .2 .26
.10 Haddadi,Hamed Mem 3 .833 11.4 16.7 1.9 .0 1.6 3.1 2.19
.03 Simmons,Bobby LAC 3 .900 19.9 1.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .71
.02 Butler,Caron LAC 23 .418 11.5 3.8 .9 .9 2.0 .2 .06
.02 Cunningham,Dante Mem 7 .364 4.2 8.7 .0 .7 .7 1.3 .18
-.04 Arenas,Gilbert Mem 3 .250 3.7 1.6 1.7 .0 1.4 .0 -.89
Effective shooting: LAC .520 - .499 Mem
Rebounds per 48 min: Mem 42.1 - 36.5 LAC
Turnovers per game: LAC 14.1 - Mem 14.6