APBRmetrics

I think a lot of the fact that Westbrook is below Harden in this is that he is seen as secondary to Durant, and possibly receiving a lot of help from Durant. In truth I interpret it more that Durant is getting a decent chunk of help from Westbrook, but the relationship is symbiotic. Harden on the other hand has broken out and is running his own team, and is certainly THE offensive threat on that team. However, his defensive numbers are inferior to Westbrook's, and he is somewhat reliant on Asik to bail out his still mediocre defensive play. Harden should end up the better player from where I'm sitting, but if he never really starts to play D then that may not happen.

As for Kobe, I guess the fact that he has done a large amount of the work this season to force the Lakers into the eight seed, has completely changed his style of play on a whim in order to do so, has had to work in a system unsuited to the players he has around him, and has generally played at a very good level offensively is the reasoning. On the other side of that argument I see Nash as being marginalised by Kobe's play when really Kobe should be working to incorporate him, rather than simply replace him. Kobe also hasn't played much/any D this year, and the Lakers have had all sorts of problems on that end. I wouldn't put Kobe ahead of Westbrook.

According to Win Shares per 48, we are this year seeing 3 of the 17 best NBA player-seasons of all time.
http://bkref.com/tiny/wfyyR

Just 17 instances of .290 or better WS/48 and >1700 minutes.
LeBron and Jordan (will) have hit it 4 times each. Kareem did it 3 times.
Robinson did it twice, and this would be Paul's 2nd.
Durant and Wilt once each.

From another thread:

Melo needs 34% usage to be a top scorer, he's still taking (optional) bad shots, and doesn't assist enough given the attention he draws.

Melo + Chandler total 47 Usg%
Add Kidd and you have 59.4%. Between the 3 of them, they are taking their share of shots.
Kidd's 12% is consistent with his slow decline in Dallas. Chandler's 13% is about what it's always been.
Can they get more shots from those guys? Or from Novak? Prigioni?

Historic (since 1978) median TS% for players with >32% Usg is .550, and Melo is .556 currently.
Just 8 of 71 have better TS% and lower TO%. Only 3 are not Jordan.
http://bkref.com/tiny/4z9kg
His TReb% is 25th among 71. Jordan's the only guard who's been higher.

Knicks are 5-5 without 'Melo. They're 22-10 without Amar'e.

The Knicks get Assists on just 54% of their FG, lowest in the league. On the road, it's 53%.
Carmelo's FG are 58% unassisted. For Durant, it's 48% (road), and LeBron is at 60%
He's "in their league"; he's just not as good as the big 2. Nobody is.

According to Win Shares per 48, we are this year seeing 3 of the 17 best NBA player-seasons of all time.
http://bkref.com/tiny/wfyyR

Just 17 instances of .290 or better WS/48 and >1700 minutes.

Durant and Paul have since slipped beneath the .290 mark; but they're still among the top 21 seasons of all time.
Right up there with prime Shaq.

After 5 years as first-team C, Dwight may miss out altogether this season; or he may not, since there's no clear front-runner. Is there?

Among the voters here, it would seem to be Duncan. He hasn't made an all-NBA team in 3 years. Last time he was 1st team was 2007 -- before the Dwight era, the year Amar'e was #1 at C.

I've changed my tune and instead of going by total eWins, I'm multiplying that by eW/minute. This puts me on the Paul/Harden bandwagon.The 2nd Team is all guards! Come on, fellas.
I've gone with Horford as 2nd center. It's very close with M Gasol, D Lee, B Lopez, and A Jefferson; and Dwight is right there.
Even closer scrap for the 3-6 guards: Harden barely ahead of Wade/ Kobe/ Parker in a dead heat.

We have 209 votes, so somebody needs to come Forward with one more.

I won't make an extended argument (at least right now) but I don't think Westbrook is a top 5 player. By v-zero's last prior informed RAPM he is 14th. By winshares per 48 among big minute players he is 9th. By IPV 7th. By offensive rating 56th.

Here's what I got:

Crow wrote:I won't make an extended argument (at least right now) but I don't think Westbrook is a top 5 player. By v-zero's last prior informed RAPM he is 14th. By winshares per 48 among big minute players he is 9th. By IPV 7th. By offensive rating 56th.

WS/48 gives Westbrook .197 and Durant .293 -- together they offer .49 of a win, if they play 48 minutes at full strength.
eWins says its .245 to Durant and .224 Westbrook. Close to the same total, .47, suggesting that any 3 scrubs in the league could run with these 2 and be competitive, at least for a quarter.

Two years ago, they took about the same number of shots. Last year, Westy takes more. This year, even a bigger margin. And they keep getting better. Someone must know how this works so well.

His assists are up almost 1/3 over last year. These are real assists, with no home bias.
Somehow his turnovers are down, again, as his TO% has improved every year.
Team TO% is also better than last year.

Crow wrote:I won't make an extended argument (at least right now) but I don't think Westbrook is a top 5 player. By v-zero's last prior informed RAPM he is 14th. By winshares per 48 among big minute players he is 9th. By IPV 7th. By offensive rating 56th.

I think when you factor in total production - because Westbrook's durability is incredible - you get a different story. He's 5th in Win Shares, 3rd in IPV MVP, 3rd in DSmok's VORP, and 4th in v-zero's RAPM if you convert it into wins over replacement (after LeBron, Harden, and Griffin).

I hear your case. I might be too fixated on the low offensive efficiency.

Want to see what he does in the playoffs. By winshares per 48 he has one great playoffs (his first, against Derek Fisher and a first round loss). one ok but not really "star" level and one weak. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... bru01.html

In multiple seasons, from 2010 to 2013, in the playoffs, requiring Field Goal Attempts >= 15 and Field Goal Pct <= .4, sorted by most games matching criteria:

http://bkref.com/tiny/njMt0

Russ leads here in total count of such games. Not sure where he stands in frequency of such games / total playoff games for all players but among the top 10 he has 3rd highest ratio with only Joe Johnson and Melo higher.

Changed to account for the fact that Parker hasn't done anything of real value over the last month and a half, so slips out of All-NBA. Harden to 1st, Westbrook 2nd.

From looking at the votes, LeBron appears to be only on someones second team. I'm guessing that's the missing vote, as I can't imagine anyone here thinks he's not amongst the best 2 forwards in the NBA. EDIT: Also there with Durant. I no longer know where the vote's gone.

Someone just added 3 votes, rather than 15.

Wade and Parker both dropped to 3rd team on my list. Wade has made 1st team twice, 2nd team 3 times, 3rd team twice. He seems to get screwed by injury and/or Kobe-worship most years.

Mike G wrote:Here's what I got:

Code: Select all

pos   First Team       2nd Team          3rd Team
F    LeBron James     Blake Griffin     David Lee
F    Kevin Durant     Carmelo Anthony   David West
C    Tim Duncan       Al Jefferson      Marc Gasol
G   Russell Westbrook  Kobe Bryant      Dwyane Wade
G    Chris Paul       James Harden      Tony Parker

What was voted:

If you subject our votes in this thread to the same position restrictions as the media, we got:

1st Team:
F LeBron
F Durant
C Duncan
G Paul
G Harden

2nd Team:
F Griffin
F Garnett
C Gasol
G Bryant
G Westbrook

3rd Team:
F Melo
F George
C Chandler
G Parker
G Wade

This is, of course, sticking Garnett at forward even though he played mostly center for the simple fact that we didn't vote for forwards a lot, and I'm confident the media would have no problem slotting him there.

Compared to the media, we liked Harden and Garnett much more. Notably, the media included two guys notorious for playing poor defense (Melo and Lee), who we didn't like as much. We also preferred Chandler to Howard which is interesting and may have a number of different explanations.