2013 Western Semis: Okl-Mem and SA-GS

[Mike G]

Spurs 3, Warriors 2
avg score 103.6 - 101.4
Pyth Wins: 2.85 - 2.15 , eWins: 2.68 - 2.32

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e510
.73   Tony Parker    SAS   39  .521   24.0   4.4   5.8    .7   2.2   .2   1.89
.59   Tim Duncan     SAS   37  .464   18.3  10.7   2.0    .6   1.6  1.0   1.64
.53   Stephen Curry  GSW   43  .516   19.2   2.7   6.1   1.0   2.8   .0   1.25
.43   Manu Ginobili  SAS   31  .455   15.6   5.2   6.9   2.1   3.0   .5   1.42
.40   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   42  .610   14.3   7.5   1.6   1.2   1.2   .3    .98

.37   Carl Landry    GSW   21  .581   21.7  11.1   3.7    .3   2.8   .0   1.81
.34   Andrew Bogut   GSW   28  .500    8.9  16.5   2.9    .3   2.1  1.1   1.24
.32  Harrison Barnes GSW   43  .519   15.6   6.7   1.2    .5   1.8   .2    .75
.31   Klay Thompson  GSW   41  .503   13.8   5.8   1.5   1.4   1.4   .5    .76
.28   Danny Green    SAS   36  .565   12.6   4.1   2.0   1.6    .6  1.2    .80

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e510
.28   Jarrett Jack   GSW   33  .538   17.5   4.2   2.8   1.3   3.0   .2    .87
.11   Tiago Splitter SAS   15  .600   10.7   7.7   2.1   2.5   2.0   .5    .75
.09   Boris Diaw     SAS   18  .600   11.3   4.5   3.4   1.6   2.4   .4    .53
.09   David Lee      GSW    5  .647   18.2  11.6   1.5   2.9    .0   .0   2.04
.09   Draymond Green GSW   23  .426    6.8   7.1   3.2    .3   1.5  1.5    .39

.05   Cory Joseph    SAS    9  .517   10.9   3.5   4.7    .0    .0   .0    .57
.02 Rich'd Jefferson GSW    4  .467   11.0   5.5    .0   1.8    .0   .0    .50
-.02  Matt Bonner    SAS   10  .556    6.5   3.9   1.5    .0    .0   .0   -.21
-.04  Gary Neal      SAS   16  .392    6.4   4.0   1.4    .4    .8   .4   -.24
-.05  Festus Ezeli   GSW   11  .250    1.0   7.7    .6    .6    .6   .6   -.43

Shooting: SA .513 - .511 GS
Rebounds: GS 47.8 - 42.0 SA
Turnovers: SA 11.2 - 14.6 GS

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 4, Thunder 1
avg score 93.6 - 89.6
Pyth Wins: 3.21 - 1.79 , eWins: 2.85 - 2.15

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.04  Kevin Durant    Okl   46  .520   26.0   8.6   5.3   1.4  1.0   3.5  1.0   2.19
.85   Marc Gasol      Mem   42  .548   20.6   7.6   2.3   2.4  1.4   1.3  2.4   1.96
.69   Mike Conley     Mem   41  .466   17.1   5.9   6.7   1.8  1.9   2.1   .2   1.61
.66   Zach Randolph   Mem   40  .500   19.2  10.4   2.2   2.6   .6   1.6   .4   1.60
.46   Reggie Jackson  Okl   38  .570   16.0   6.2   3.6   3.1   .4   1.7   .6   1.17

.34   Serge Ibaka     Okl   36  .423   11.4   8.9    .4   4.5   .0    .8  3.1    .92
.30   Tony Allen      Mem   28  .476   14.1   6.7   1.4   4.9  3.1   1.7   .0   1.04
.28   Kevin Martin    Okl   30  .522   18.3   4.4   1.2   1.6   .2    .9   .5    .90
.18   Jerryd Bayless  Mem   23  .459   14.2   5.1   3.0   4.0   .3   1.0   .3    .78
.16  Quincy Pondexter Mem   20  .647   14.9   4.2   1.5   3.7   .7   1.1   .3    .77

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Derek Fisher    Okl   27  .547   13.5   2.2   1.1   3.9   .8   1.3   .0    .26
.07   Thabo Sefolosha Okl   22  .434    7.3   5.9   2.4   1.7  1.0   1.3   .0    .32
.04   Nick Collison   Okl   18  .474    7.3   8.0   2.0  10.0   .8   3.8  1.5    .22
.01   Darrell Arthur  Mem   11  .471   10.2   5.0    .0   4.8   .6   2.0   .6    .06
.00   Tayshaun Prince Mem   31  .330    5.7   5.8   2.9   2.1   .2   1.5   .0    .02

-.02  Deandre Liggins Okl    3  .000     .0   5.1    .0   4.9   .0    .0   .0   -.72
-.02  Hasheem Thabeet Okl    4  .000     .0   9.5    .0   9.1   .0   1.5   .0   -.48
-.04  Keyon Dooling   Mem    6  .412    6.4    .0    .0   2.0   .0    .0   .0   -.61
-.12 Kendrick Perkins Okl   23  .240    2.2   6.7   1.3   5.5   .6   3.4   .9   -.51

Shooting: Okl .489 - .484 Mem
Rebounds: Okl 42.5 - 41.9 Mem
Turnovers: Mem 10.4 - 14.0 Okl

[Mike G]

During the season, OKC had an ORtg of 112.4 and a DRtg of 102.6
Their playoff opponents (Hou and Mem) had a combined ORtg of 107.0 and DRtg 102.9 in the RS.
These were respectively +1.2 and -2.9 from NBA average (105.8).

In 9 games after Westbrook went down, the Thunder had O- and D-Rtg of 103.1 and 104.9
Subtracting their playoff opponent strengths from their season averages, they should have been 109.5 and 103.8

The differences suggest that without Westbrook, they were 6.4 pts worse on offense and 1.1 worse on defense.
It does seem that all teams play more defense in the playoffs. But that's still going to be -7.5 Pts/100 possessions, however you cut it.

[DSMok1]

During the season, OKC had an ORtg of 112.4 and a DRtg of 102.6
Their playoff opponents (Hou and Mem) had a combined ORtg of 107.0 and DRtg 102.9 in the RS.
These were respectively +1.2 and -2.9 from NBA average (105.8).

In 9 games after Westbrook went down, the Thunder had O- and D-Rtg of 103.1 and 104.9
Subtracting their playoff opponent strengths from their season averages, they should have been 109.5 and 103.8

The differences suggest that without Westbrook, they were 6.4 pts worse on offense and 1.1 worse on defense.
It does seem that all teams play more defense in the playoffs. But that's still going to be -7.5 Pts/100 possessions, however you cut it.

That's a pretty good validation of my VORP valuation for Westbrook, whom I had at +6.5

[Mike G]

That's a pretty good validation of my VORP valuation for Westbrook, whom I had at +6.5

If subtracting Westbrook costs the team 7.5 pts/100, does that mean his replacements (for say 36 mpg) were below average?
Since he's only in for 3/4 of the game, then his on-court time must have been worth about +10/100 ?
What is an average player, in VORP? Is +6.5 much better than average?

[DSMok1]

That's a pretty good validation of my VORP valuation for Westbrook, whom I had at +6.5

If subtracting Westbrook costs the team 7.5 pts/100, does that mean his replacements (for say 36 mpg) were below average?
Since he's only in for 3/4 of the game, then his on-court time must have been worth about +10/100 ?
What is an average player, in VORP? Is +6.5 much better than average?

VORP is comparing to a replacement level player. Some of OKC's replacements were theoretically above replacement level, but thrown outside their role they were perhaps not so.

Using ASPM, I had Westbrook as a +5.94 player per 100 possessions played, K Martin at +0.31 (though certainly he played below that this series with the added load), Thabo as a +2.08 player, Reggie Jackson as a -1.31 player, and the venerable Derek Fisher at actually below replacement level, -3.14.

Suppose I look just at the back court, and compare the minutes distribution for last night's game ( http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 50OKC.html ) and a in-season OKC-MEM game ( http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 00MEM.html )

Midseason:

RWB: 77% min x +5.94 = +4.6 pts
R-Jack: 42% min x -1.31 = -0.6 pts
Thabo: 38% min x +2.08 = +0.8 pts
K-Mart: 63% min x +0.31 = +0.2 pts
Fisher: 21% min x -3.14 = -0.7 pts

Total is 241% of minutes (played small almost 1/2 time) and a total of +4.3 points vs. an average NBA lineup

Post Season:

RWB: 0% min x +5.94 = +0 pts
R-Jack: 87% min x -1.31 = -1.1 pts
Thabo: 40% min x +2.08 = +0.8 pts
K-Mart: 64% min x +0.31 = +0.2 pts
Fisher: 65% min x -3.14 = -2.0 pts

Total is 256% of minutes (played small a little over 1/2 time) and a total of -2.1 points vs. an average NBA lineup

This would indicate that RWB's value to the team in VORP should be around +6.4 points, or a little more even than my VORP computation.

[Mike G]

Spurs 4, Warriors 2
Avg Score: 102.0 - 98.2
Pyth Wins: 3.75 - 2.25 , eWins: 3.37 - 2.63
Games averaged 50.5 minutes in this series, so average eWins rate is 1.00 per 505 player minutes.

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eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.79   Tony Parker   SAS   39  .496   22.3   4.3   6.4   1.9    .6   2.7   .2   1.70
.73   Tim Duncan    SAS   36  .483   19.9  10.2   2.1   2.1    .5   2.1  1.4   1.72
.63   Stephen Curry GSW   43  .502   19.5   2.9   5.7   1.8   1.0   2.9   .1   1.24
.56   Kawhi Leonard SAS   41  .595   15.3   8.0   1.4   2.3   1.4   1.5   .3   1.17
.50   Manu Ginobili SAS   30  .442   14.1   5.6   8.2   2.5   1.9   3.3   .4   1.42

.44   Carl Landry   GSW   20  .570   22.0  11.0   3.2   5.2    .6   2.6   .0   1.87
.40   Andrew Bogut  GSW   27  .487    8.3  16.0   2.6   4.8    .2   2.1   .9   1.24
.37   Danny Green   SAS   36  .600   13.7   4.1   1.8   2.4   1.5   1.0  1.0    .88
.35 Harrison Barnes GSW   41  .507   15.0   6.6   1.1   2.4    .4   1.8   .3    .71
.35   Jarrett Jack  GSW   33  .541   17.7   3.9   2.3   2.3   1.4   2.5   .2    .88

eWins  per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.28   Klay Thompson GSW   42  .492   13.1   4.9   1.6   2.9   1.3   1.6   .4    .57
.24  Tiago Splitter SAS   17  .667   14.8   6.7   1.8   4.5   2.4   2.0   .7   1.19
.14   David Lee     GSW    6  .526   18.7  11.6   2.5   3.5   2.7    .9   .0   2.02
.10   Boris Diaw    SAS   18  .571    8.9   5.4   4.0   3.5   1.3   2.5   .3    .47
.07   Cory Joseph   SAS    9  .568   13.0   2.7   3.6   4.0    .0    .0   .0    .60

.05  Draymond Green GSW   20  .388    5.7   6.7   2.9   4.2    .3   1.7  1.4    .20
-.01  Gary Neal     SAS   15  .444    8.2   5.1   1.1   5.6    .4    .8   .4   -.04
-.03  Matt Bonner   SAS   10  .545    6.5   3.8   1.2   4.5    .0    .0   .0   -.24
-.05  Festus Ezeli  GSW   13  .250    1.1   8.4    .8   6.6    .9    .9   .4   -.32

Shooting: SA .519 - .499 GS
Rebounds: GS 46.6 - 42.6 SA (per 48)
Turnovers: SA 13.2 - 14.3 GS