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Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:12 am
by Mike G
Spurs 3, Heat 3
avg score: SA 99.3 - 97.3 Mia
Pyth Wins: 3.39 - 2.61, eWins: 3.20 - 2.80
With one overtime session, it's 488 player minutes per 1.00 win.
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e488
1.02 Lebron James Mia 43 .491 20.1 9.7 5.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 .8 1.95
.90 Tim Duncan SAS 35 .543 20.2 14.6 1.3 2.1 .4 2.5 1.6 2.09
.77 Kawhi Leonard SAS 35 .597 15.9 12.5 1.0 2.5 2.3 .9 .4 1.79
.67 Chris Bosh Mia 35 .516 14.8 10.3 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.54
.56 Dwyane Wade Mia 36 .491 19.8 3.3 4.5 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.2 1.26
.50 Danny Green SAS 35 .738 18.8 4.8 .8 3.7 .9 1.1 1.8 1.15
.47 Tony Parker SAS 35 .478 18.1 2.6 6.6 1.1 .7 2.5 .2 1.10
.22 Mike Miller Mia 22 1.09 13.2 5.0 1.4 4.1 .6 .7 .6 .82
.20 Ray Allen Mia 29 .763 17.2 2.6 1.2 3.2 .2 1.5 .0 .58
.12 Manu Ginobili SAS 27 .525 14.7 3.0 5.0 4.2 1.1 4.2 .0 .37
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e488
.11 Gary Neal SAS 24 .575 15.7 3.6 1.1 1.9 .0 1.8 .0 .38
.06 Chris Andersen Mia 9 .679 13.8 7.6 .0 9.0 2.6 2.4 1.3 .59
.05 Shane Battier Mia 10 .512 12.4 4.4 2.5 5.3 .0 .0 1.2 .42
.05 Tiago Splitter SAS 17 .500 12.3 5.9 1.0 3.7 1.1 3.6 1.1 .23
.05 Matt Bonner SAS 6 .500 10.5 7.6 .9 1.9 1.0 .0 .0 .66
.04 Mario Chalmers Mia 30 .531 12.8 4.2 2.3 3.1 .6 3.5 .0 .11
.04 Boris Diaw SAS 14 .528 8.4 5.7 3.4 2.5 .0 2.2 .4 .25
.03 Cory Joseph SAS 7 .458 8.9 5.5 4.3 .0 1.6 4.3 .0 .35
.00 Udonis Haslem Mia 10 .474 5.4 11.2 .0 8.0 .0 .8 .6 .04
-.08 Norris Cole Mia 14 .326 5.5 2.2 4.2 3.8 1.7 2.6 .4 -.47
Shooting: SA .549 - .540 Mia
Rebounds: SA 41.0 - 38.5 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.5 - 14.5 SA
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:19 pm
by Crow
The lineup with Ginobili for Splitter has been negative in every use against the Heat, badly in all but one.
Subbing Diaw into lineup with rest of starters has worked several times against the Heat with one exception.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:54 am
by Mike G
Heat 4, Spurs 3
Average score: SA 97.7 - 97.0 Mia
Pyth Wins: SA 3.67 - 3.33 Mia, eWins 3.58 - 3.42
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e487
1.45 Lebron James Mia 43 .522 22.7 9.8 5.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 .7 2.34
1.08 Tim Duncan SAS 36 .543 20.5 13.8 1.4 2.3 .9 2.5 1.4 2.06
.86 Kawhi Leonard SAS 36 .576 15.4 12.7 .9 2.3 2.0 1.1 .4 1.63
.79 Dwyane Wade Mia 36 .496 20.5 4.3 4.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.51
.63 Chris Bosh Mia 34 .485 12.7 10.2 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.29
.55 Tony Parker SAS 35 .464 16.7 2.2 6.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 .1 1.08
.39 Danny Green SAS 35 .645 15.5 4.8 .7 3.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 .76
.27 Manu Ginobili SAS 28 .547 16.3 3.0 5.4 4.1 .9 4.3 .0 .66
.18 Ray Allen Mia 27 .705 15.6 3.1 1.9 3.2 .2 1.9 .0 .47
.16 Shane Battier Mia 12 .684 15.7 4.5 2.2 3.8 .4 .0 .8 .89
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e487
.11 Mike Miller Mia 22 .841 10.1 4.8 1.4 4.1 1.0 .6 .5 .36
.09 Gary Neal SAS 24 .550 13.7 3.9 1.2 2.0 .0 1.7 .0 .26
.09 Boris Diaw SAS 14 .600 9.6 6.0 3.5 2.8 .0 1.9 .4 .46
.07 Chris Andersen Mia 10 .688 12.2 7.6 .0 7.6 1.9 2.2 1.4 .51
.06 Tiago Splitter SAS 15 .500 12.0 5.3 1.0 3.7 1.7 3.3 1.0 .27
.05 Mario Chalmers Mia 32 .503 12.8 3.4 2.4 3.0 .8 3.5 .0 .11
.03 Cory Joseph SAS 6 .458 8.9 5.2 4.6 .0 1.5 4.1 .0 .39
.03 Matt Bonner SAS 5 .500 9.2 7.2 .9 1.8 .9 .0 .0 .46
-.02 Udonis Haslem Mia 9 .474 4.6 10.5 .0 8.7 .0 .7 .6 -.19
-.05 Norris Cole Mia 12 .326 5.3 2.2 4.8 3.7 1.6 2.4 .4 -.27
Shooting: .538 - .538
Rebounds: SA 41.2 - 39.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.6 - 14.6 SA
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:14 pm
by dtjmcauliffe
Even as a Spurs fan, I can admit that was an incredible series.
It really isn't fair that LeBron is allowed to play in the NBA. He's a different species.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:51 pm
by Crow
T. Duncan | D. Green | K. Leonard | T. Parker | T. Splitter ended up very strongly positive overall (couple of bad games, couple of good I think) but used only 33 minutes total against the Heat. With Ginobli instead of Splitter had a strong last game but only pulled up to just slightly below 0 overall per 100 possessions. Got used twice as much as the traditional starting lineup. Mistake? I'd have to review it closer to judge fully and fairly but obviously this tilt in the lineup allocation on its own was not a big success and probably was not optimal.
Miami may have made "mistakes" with too much time for or bad timing of Wade lineups as well. At least on paper by raw net +/- they did.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 12:08 pm
by v-zero
The problem with always running the Green lineups in a series is that the guy is hugely limited, so once teams adapt (as Miami eventually did) he becomes a burden. He's a brilliant spot-up shooter and can hit the three off the dribble in space, but as soon as the guy approaches the paint or has to put the ball on the floor too much he is an enormous liability. Call it experience if you like, but like so many whose handle is shaky he hits panic stations as soon as he gets trapped, and doesn't have the composure that a guy like Ginobili or Parker does. Ginobili had a poor series by his standards, and Parker was obviously not fit - in the moments in which he was himself he carved gaping holes in the Heat with ease. I do not personally like seeing Ginobili and Parker share the floor, because Ginobili isn't really an SG, and Parker isn't really a PG.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 2:00 pm
by Bobbofitos
Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:35 pm
by Crow
Neither finalist this time was really driven to success by their biggest minute lineup at least in the finals. Miami had the 2nd best lineup used in the playoffs over 50 minutes, R. Allen | C. Andersen | S. Battier | N. Cole | L. James, thus meeting the historical trend to have a top 6 lineup (and the Spurs ended not having it) but they choose not to use it all in the finals. In such a situation I think the coach's share of the credit / blame might be somewhat higher than when teams run out a huge minute lineup al the time and win based on that.
I've thought of cataloging and analyzing the lineup match-up with the biggest +/- swings in the finals but they may have to wait a bit. Not sure there is much interest or perceived significance in the topic anyways. Here or inside teams though.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:16 pm
by xkonk
Bobbofitos wrote:Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.
I would generally agree, but there were really only three competitive games in the series. With all that garbage time I'm not sure of what to make of the overall point differential.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 11:54 pm
by Mike G
The Spurs scored 50.18% of the points; resulting in 52.4% of the pythagorean wins and 51.2% of the (player-equivalent) eWins.
Pyth wins are a funny thing. If we subtract the previous total from the most current (as reported in this thread, after 2 games, 3 games, etc -- we can see the pWin and eWin change due to each game.
Code: Select all
. score total pW total eW game pW game eW
G SA Mia SA Mia SA Mia SA Mia SA Mia
1 92 88 .64 .36 .57 .43 .64 .36 .57 .43
2 84 103 .50 1.50 .75 1.25 -.14 1.14 .18 .82
3 113 77 2.20 .80 1.85 1.15 1.70 -.70 1.10 -.10
4 93 109 2.17 1.83 2.09 1.91 -.03 1.03 .24 .76
5 114 104 3.00 2.00 2.75 2.25 .83 .17 .66 .34
6 100 103 3.39 2.61 3.20 2.80 .39 .61 .45 .55
7 88 95 3.67 3.33 3.58 3.42 .28 .72 .39 .61
In a given game, it's impossible for a team to get more than 1.00 pWin (or eWin).
But by cumulative totals, it is deduced that there were 3 games with 'impossible' pWins.
One game had 'impossible' eWins, but the magnitude of the impossibility was just 1/7 that of the pWins.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 9:59 am
by v-zero
That's simply a result of the fact that those aren't cumulative pythagorean wins, but rather the pythagorean wins recalculated using cumulative point totals. To not have this behaviour you should treat each game's pythag wins as its own measurement, and accumulate these. This method will cause blowouts to have their impact limited.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 12:01 pm
by Mike G
Aye, matey. In fact, if we calculate pythagorean wins for each game, we get quite a different total.
Code: Select all
. score pyth wins cumulative
G Mia SA Mia SA Mia SA
1 88 92 .36 .64 .36 .64
2 103 84 .94 .06 1.30 .70
3 77 113 .01 .99 1.30 1.70
4 109 93 .89 .11 2.20 1.80
5 104 114 .23 .77 2.42 2.58
6 103 100 .60 .40 3.02 2.98
7 95 88 .74 .26 3.76 3.24
It kinda quantifies the notion that "a win is a win", whether by 3 or by 33.
Re: 2013 Finals: Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:25 am
by huevonkiller
xkonk wrote:Bobbofitos wrote:Meh, Spurs won the series point differential. They were better. They lost though. Oh well.
I would generally agree, but there were really only three competitive games in the series. With all that garbage time I'm not sure of what to make of the overall point differential.
Yes I had the same thought as well throughout the series.