APBRmetrics

The average offensive rating in 1989 was 110, Jordan was at 112...

Actually, league avg that year was 107.8
Against the Cavs and the Pistons, average ORtg was 103 and 105 respectively. It's irrelevant what anyone averaged against the Hornets.
Bulls also knocked off the Knicks en route to the ECF. The #6 seed bumps off the #3 and the #2 before losing to the #1 in 6 games. Led by the very average (if that) Michael Jordan, they gave the Pistons their only 2 losses of this postseason. How does that work?

Where do you get O-Rtg for a series? Against the Pistons, Jordan had ORtg of 105, 104, 143, 110, 127, and 94. Against a DRtg of 105, that's one below-avg game (offensively), 2 average, 1 above-avg, and 2 severely above-avg.
His averages for the series: 114 ORtg, 106 DRtg
For the 1989 playoffs, ORtg of 120, vs the #1, #2, and #5 defensive teams in the East.

Mike G wrote:

The average offensive rating in 1989 was 110, Jordan was at 112...

Actually, league avg that year was 107.8

No it wasn't, it was 110 in the playoffs. What the average was in the regular season is less relevant to me.

But if we entertain that hypothesis, see my other response a little below.

Against the Cavs and the Pistons, average ORtg was 103 and 105 respectively. It's irrelevant what anyone averaged against the Hornets.

105.3 is equivalent to the Timberwolves basically, you're being silly.

The top 3 defenses in 2013: 100, 100, 102. 1988 is garbage next to that.

Everything is relevant, it is called league environment. Your guy was atrocious in those seasons against Detroit. You cited per game numbers, but that is not logical. A raw rating of 106 is simply terrible.

Bulls also knocked off the Knicks en route to the ECF. The #6 seed bumps off the #3 and the #2 before losing to the #1 in 6 games. Led by the very average (if that) Michael Jordan, they gave the Pistons their only 2 losses of this postseason. How does that work?

Where do you get O-Rtg for a series? Against the Pistons, Jordan had ORtg of 105, 104, 143, 110, 127, and 94. Against a DRtg of 105, that's one below-avg game (offensively), 2 average, 1 above-avg, and 2 severely above-avg.
His averages for the series: 114 ORtg, 106 DRtg
For the 1989 playoffs, ORtg of 120, vs the #1, #2, and #5 defensive teams in the East.

I never brought up the first round of the 88 playoffs.

I said against the 88 Pistons, 89 Pistons, 92 Knicks, etc. Yes 120 back then is like 114 now, Kobeish. Even worse than Kobe against the Pistons.

His numbers against the Cavs don't matter, what matters is his 106 offensive rating on 31 USG%. That's atrocious for 1988, it would be the equivalent of him doing about 100 in the 2013 playoffs, a complete chokejob.

And he averaged 112 in 89, go to basketball-reference and click on those games to compute the aggregate.

1988, Bulls vs Pistons: Det 4, Chi 1
Avg ORtg: Det 106.7, Chi 95.6; Jordan 106.8 -- Bulls other than Jordan: 91.1

Nobody remembers Jordan being "atrocious" in this series, nor in the 1989 rematch. He couldn't single-handedly beat the best team in the league.

I think I've been rather open in these parts as to our Lebron/Heat bias over the past 3 seasons, and I agree with much of your edited/updated/modified/etc post.

But gosh... I assumed that bedside manner would be really pleasant in Miami this week.

It's true that you can read a players Offensive Rating for a playoff series, from his Game Log at b-r.com. Just toggle to Advanced Stats, click on the first game's line (not on a link) and on the last game, and it'll calculate everything included.

LeBron's been in 25 playoff series through age 28. At the same age, Jordan had been through 19 series. Here's a summary of their average ORtg and playoff opponents' avg (RS) DRtg; the difference -- points above average vs that opponent; and the departure from the player's RS (ORtg - NBA DRtg), which is his series performance relative to that year's RS performance. This covers Jordan thru 1991-92. He's been to 2 Finals, vs 4 for LeBron. Both have won twice.

Looking at it by round of the playoffs. Both players kick ass in round 1, and then they diverge:

It is irrelevant Mike G, you changed the subject.

Mike G wrote:It's true that you can read a players Offensive Rating for a playoff series, from his Game Log at b-r.com. Just toggle to Advanced Stats, click on the first game's line (not on a link) and on the last game, and it'll calculate everything included.

LeBron's been in 25 playoff series through age 28. At the same age, Jordan had been through 19 series. Here's a summary of their average ORtg and playoff opponents' avg (RS) DRtg; the difference -- points above average vs that opponent; and the departure from the player's RS (ORtg - NBA DRtg), which is his series performance relative to that year's RS performance.

Code: Select all

player  ser  G     ORtg    OppD   diff   rel
Jordan  19   92   120.4   105.9  +14.5  +0.8
LeBron  25  138   115.7   103.7  +12.0  +0.4 

This covers Jordan thru 1991-92. He's been to 2 Finals, vs 4 for LeBron. Both have won twice.

Looking at it by round of the playoffs. Both players kick ass in round 1, and then they diverge:

Code: Select all

1st rd   ser  G    ORtg    OppD   diff   rel
Jordan    8  30   123.3   106.0   17.2  +5.3
LeBron    8  39   124.0   106.5   17.5  +6.1 

2nd rd   ser  G    ORtg    OppD   diff   rel
Jordan    5  28   117.8   106.7   11.1  -3.9  
LeBron    8  46   113.5   103.3   10.2  -1.2

ECF      ser  G    ORtg    OppD   diff   rel
Jordan    4  23   118.0   105.3   12.8  -2.3
LeBron    5  31   115.6   100.9   14.7  +2.6

Finals   ser  G    ORtg    OppD   diff   rel
Jordan    2  11   120.5   104.6   15.9  +1.0
LeBron    4  22   103.8   102.4    1.3 -10.4

That's just tangential to my original point. How does LeBron play when both of them are in their prime? LeBron is Jordan's equal before that anyway. LJ is being punished for having deep playoff runs at an earlier age in your charts above.

If I exclude the 2011 season for LeBron for obvious reasons (he sucked in the regular season), and I exclude Jordan's 1992 season which was poor for MVP standards, LeBron's margin over Jordan only grows. If LeBron had stayed in Cleveland these past three years he wouldn't have two rings but he'd have even better statistics.

Mike G wrote:1988, Bulls vs Pistons: Det 4, Chi 1
Avg ORtg: Det 106.7, Chi 95.6; Jordan 106.8 -- Bulls other than Jordan: 91.1

All that means is that his teammates played even worse than he did. Like when Monta Ellis decides to join Brandon Jennings in a game of Brickfest.

Your argument doesn't address my problem, I don't care if the Bulls win or lose, I care if Jordan plays poorly. Address the individual metrics, adjusted for league average.

You cannot do that.

Nobody remembers Jordan being "atrocious" in this series, nor in the 1989 rematch. He couldn't single-handedly beat the best team in the league.

Assume the Bulls average a 106.8 offensive rating like Jordan. Yes? Jordan still played terrible. It is easily proven he played terrible because the Pistons have a soft defense for a #2 defense.

Kobe had a 109 offensive rating in 2012, way outside his prime. He had 1.4 OWS, in about the same time as a prime Jordan. That's embarassing, and it proves my point. 88 Jordan did not play well at all against Detroit, he played like a bad version of 2012 Kobe.

Address the individual metrics, adjusted for league average.

You cannot do that.

If you're playing against an elite defensive team, or a terrible defensive team, what has league average got to do with anything?

James Worthy was Finals mvp in 1988. In the first round, the Lakers had swept the Spurs 3-0. Worthy shot .605 TS and had ORtg of 111 in the series.
That's a bit better than the NBA playoff avg of 110.4 that year. Does that mean Worthy was pretty good vs the Spurs?

Well, the Spurs' DRtg was 112.8 that year -- 4.8 above the league avg in the RS. This means teams and players on average had 4.8 better ORtg vs the Spurs.
Worthy's ORtg was 115 in the RS, so against a league-worst DRtg, he'd be expected to hit 120.

These are the standards that are relevant: strength of opponent, and the player's normal rates.