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1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=8611

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Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:13 pm
by Mike G
huevonkiller wrote:How much is post-season and per-minute production weighted? Post-season performance is valued more highly now than it ever was before. Players conserve themselves for the post-season in this era, instead of going for 43 minutes a night. The modern NBA is very different from the past, and better.
It's OK to believe that, and it's OK to believe the old days were better. The stats as I've done them aren't favorable to any era, I hope.
Modern players get the benefit of better medical practice, so tend to have longer careers. Their stats benefit from this; although there are counter-arguments : a Rudy Gay or Grant Hill had to work against more athletic opponents, and their bodies gave out more quickly.

Players were never required to go 43 mpg; it's what the coach decided -- or agreed with the player -- to do. In the cases of Wilt and Oscar, they obviously played lots of RS minutes in garbage time, presumably against plenty of scrub players. Their RS stats were therefore 'inflated', even for their era; and they could never replicate them in playoffs.

An above-avg player might see 10% of his career minutes in playoffs. Thus his minutes ratio, RS:PO, is 9:1
When I take the square roots of each quantity (not minutes but production in those minutes), the ratio is 3:1
For Robert Horry, with pog=.200 (min. ratio 4:1) the weight ratio is 2:1 -- His playoffs count as 1/3 of his career.
This may seem excessive to some, as it exaggerates the luck he had in getting into so many playoff games.
Still though: Wilt, Kareem, and Duncan's playoff stats are terrible for supposed GOAT candidates, over at basketball-reference. http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... eer_p.html
I prefer my own numbers over Win Shares.
For this occasion, I'll do a "faux eWins/48" that ranks players in the proper order and is designed to minimize avg difference with Win Shares/48.

Code: Select all

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Jordan    7474    .154   1.06    .255    .255
Mikan     1500    .152   1.05    .235    .254
LeBron    6708    .168    .98    .227    .242
Olajuwon  5749    .115   1.07    .224    .189
Shaq      8064    .161    .97    .215    .184

Duncan    8899    .170    .96    .202    .196
Wilt      7258    .129    .90    .198    .200
Kareem    8851    .134    .95    .190    .193
Robinson  4221    .110    .93    .190    .199
Dwight    2594    .086   1.04    .188    .188

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Barkley   4849    .110    .99    .187    .193
West      6306    .147   1.02    .183    .203
Westbrook 2420    .139   1.06    .183    .137
Magic     7538    .185    .98    .182    .208
Durant    3094    .130    .98    .182    .189

K Malone  7907    .126    .92    .181    .140
McGrady   1726    .053   1.05    .181    .125
Nowitzki  5535    .115    .98    .178    .196
Bird      6886    .167    .94    .178    .173
Russell   7497    .155   1.03    .177    .178

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Baylor    5505    .140    .98    .177    .134
Paul      2057    .084    .96    .174    .189
Garnett   5281    .097    .94    .171    .149
Pettit    3545    .104    .91    .170    .159
Wade      5856    .182    .92    .169    .161

Iverson   2981    .073   1.03    .165    .109
Schayes   2687    .083   1.02    .165    .189
Kobe      8577    .158    .95    .164    .157
Ewing     5208    .114    .95    .163    .130
Erving    7352    .140    .98    .163    .176
WS/48 are from b-r.com; they have Erving with .243 in the ABA and .149 in NBA. (I have attempted to normalize ABA stats to NBA equivalents.)
Again, pog represents the fraction of a player's career minutes which are in playoffs. And po/rs is the ratio of their playoff/season productivity.
WS really likes (relative to eWins) Schayes, Magic, West, Dirk, Paul, and LeBron.
eWins favors (rel. to WS) Iverson, McGrady, Westbrook, Baylor, Mailman, Ewing, Hakeem, Shaq, KG. These are guys whose teams weren't always successful, or who shot not so well, or both.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:43 pm
by Mike G
huevonkiller wrote: http://bkref.com/tiny/JVulH
LeBron is racking up stats in the playoffs like no one else. I surmise his regular season production will probably end up at the top too.

The more seasons that pass and pass Mike, the more the following trend above stays the same. Mike, LeBron isn't just some guy, he's simply better, and has easily more impressive post-season boxscore numbers than any player ever. Jordan does not have the best boxscore metrics at the end of the season, regular season accolades are not as important, and archaic players like Wilt and Kareem are not terribly impressive (in the playoffs) for the GOAT tier. Duncan is at (playoff) D-Rob level... It is ok to rank players like LeBron above everyone except Jordan right now. And LeBron will have plenty of time to separate himself from MJ and everyone else soon.
It's well understood that "LeBron isn't just some guy". To reach the alltime Top 10 before age 30, is something like once per generation.
At the same age, Jordan had 3 titles; LeBron has 2, but has been there 5 times.
Jordan then quit for almost 2 years, to play baseball, golf, etc. Perhaps the time off gave him some extra motivation, renewed his concentration, etc. We'll see how LeBron holds up, mentally and physically; but it seems he needs to change teams every few years. He's more like Wilt or Shaq in that way.

Your link is of playoff work from age 24 to 29. You know that includes LeBron's fabulous 2009, his .318 WS/48 barely pushing him past Jordan for the same interval.
Make it 25 to 29, and LeBron drops to 5th, after Jordan, Kareem, Mikan, and Wilt.
Neither of these makes anything a 'trend'.

After age 29, still requiring 1000 playoff minutes, its:
.250 - Jordan
.210 - Robinson
.208 - Chris Andersen
.199 - Magic
.192 - Dirk
.190 - Barkley
Jordan's on his own planet here. Predicting anyone else will go there is rather extreme speculation.

I'm not considering any 'accolades' at all in my rankings. If you are a good team player you tend to get into playoffs. If you step up in the playoffs, you get into more playoff games. If you win a title, you get a bonus equivalent to 10 additional playoff games' worth of production 'credits'.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:45 am
by huevonkiller
Mike G wrote:It's OK to believe that, and it's OK to believe the old days were better. The stats as I've done them aren't favorable to any era, I hope.
But this does not change the fact that Wilt and Kareem have awful statistics in the playoffs for GOAT-level players. Your argument hinges on penalizing LeBron for going further in the playoffs instead of getting bounced in the first round like MJ, with all due respect that does not seem logical. I think you do respectably on other matters but not this one. I think you're not willing to criticize Jordan even in his down years. You will not even admit that relative to league average, Jordan was brutal in his MVP seasons (1992, 1988) against the Knicks, Pistons, etc. I mean just awful. I think it is pretty obvious LeBron is smarter in handling his minute usage going into the playoffs. His boxscore stats are clearly better than Jordan, he's simply the more consistent player and pretty much equal in the regular-season. I'd take that over a regular season warrior like Kareem or even Jordan.

I use basketball-reference because it does a better job of measuring offense than your stat. We had a debate about Ray Allen versus Paul Pierce when they were both on the Celtics. It seemed clear to me that WS/48 was slightly better than your method. We can re-post that thread for the others if you want. I am ok with using an amalgamation of statistics in the playoffs though, I do not need just WS/48 because LeBron's PER-to-Usage ratio is already far better than Jordan's.

The main issue to me, is simply that you do not address my original arguments. Seriously, there's literally no need to bring up rings (Jordan had 2 at 29 BTW) at an APBR board of all places, or try to make this sample size argument. You have a sample size of 9 playoff seasons already my friend, and really it is more like 10 when you count the extra minutes. In the post-season LeBron and Jordan are comparable per minute, but it is clear the volume-wise LeBron has no real equal. You casually disregarded this trend last year, but it continues.

To put it in perspective, All LeBron needs is 12 more playoff winshares (3 post-seasons essentially) at .250 WS/48 to overcome all of Jordan's playoff career at basketball-reference. He probably needs 5 or 6 more seasons at his current near-prime to overcome Jordan's per-minute efficiency in the regular season. His last-postseason this year was more efficient than I could have predicted.


Modern players get the benefit of better medical practice, so tend to have longer careers. Their stats benefit from this; although there are counter-arguments : a Rudy Gay or Grant Hill had to work against more athletic opponents, so their bodies gave out more quickly.
My argument does not really hinge on this either way, but I'll throw in my 2 cents.

Basketball is now the most popular sport in various countries around the world. Basketball is still like the third most popular sport in the United States, in comparison, and this is with the league flourishing here. Globally-speaking, it seemed much more like a niche sport in the 70's and 80's. You can't compare the potential talent pools imo, and the tactics and strategies seemed less refined. Thank God for the Stretch-4, 3-point shot, and other revolutions in modern sports.
Players were never required to go 43 mpg; it's what the coach decided -- or agreed with the player -- to do. In the cases of Wilt and Oscar, they obviously played lots of RS minutes in garbage time, presumably against plenty of scrub players. Their RS stats were therefore 'inflated', even for their era; and they could never replicate them in playoffs.
Ok, I'm fine with not blaming the players completely. I'm sure the coaching had something to do with it. Still the topic needed to be brought up.
I prefer my own numbers over Win Shares.
For this occasion, I'll do a "faux eWins/48" that ranks players in the proper order and is designed to minimize avg difference with Win Shares/48.

Code: Select all

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Jordan    7474    .154   1.06    .255    .255
Mikan     1500    .152   1.05    .235    .254
LeBron    6708    .168    .98    .227    .242
Olajuwon  5749    .115   1.07    .224    .189
Shaq      8064    .161    .97    .215    .184

Duncan    8899    .170    .96    .202    .196
Wilt      7258    .129    .90    .198    .200
Kareem    8851    .134    .95    .190    .193
Robinson  4221    .110    .93    .190    .199
Dwight    2594    .086   1.04    .188    .188

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Barkley   4849    .110    .99    .187    .193
West      6306    .147   1.02    .183    .203
Westbrook 2420    .139   1.06    .183    .137
Magic     7538    .185    .98    .182    .208
Durant    3094    .130    .98    .182    .189

K Malone  7907    .126    .92    .181    .140
McGrady   1726    .053   1.05    .181    .125
Nowitzki  5535    .115    .98    .178    .196
Bird      6886    .167    .94    .178    .173
Russell   7497    .155   1.03    .177    .178

playoffs  poMin    pog   po/rs   eW/48   WS/48
Baylor    5505    .140    .98    .177    .134
Paul      2057    .084    .96    .174    .189
Garnett   5281    .097    .94    .171    .149
Pettit    3545    .104    .91    .170    .159
Wade      5856    .182    .92    .169    .161

Iverson   2981    .073   1.03    .165    .109
Schayes   2687    .083   1.02    .165    .189
Kobe      8577    .158    .95    .164    .157
Ewing     5208    .114    .95    .163    .130
Erving    7352    .140    .98    .163    .176
WS/48 are from b-r.com; they have Erving with .243 in the ABA and .149 in NBA. (I have attempted to normalize ABA stats to NBA equivalents.)
Ok, refer to the Ray Allen debate before then. I do not need to rely on WS/48, Jordan is incredibly inefficient for the extra amount of touches he needs, compared to LeBron going by PER. The boxscore metrics are pretty clear.

BTW, this is not a career WS/48 debate, that's tangential and has been addressed. You shouldn't get rewarded for getting knocked out in the first round like the 00's Colts.
Again, pog represents the fraction of a player's career minutes which are in playoffs. And po/rs is the ratio of their playoff/season productivity.
WS really likes (relative to eWins) Schayes, Magic, West, Dirk, Paul, and LeBron.
eWins favors (rel. to WS) Iverson, McGrady, Westbrook, Baylor, Mailman, Ewing, Hakeem, Shaq, KG. These are guys whose teams weren't always successful, or who shot not so well, or both.
The mailguy, AI, even KG (for his standards, and I'll throw in D-Rob too) were awful in the playoffs, but I digress.

Yeah it is really an amalgamation of metrics that clinches it for me, not just WS/48.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:50 am
by huevonkiller
Mike G wrote:
It's well understood that "LeBron isn't just some guy". To reach the alltime Top 5 before age 30, is something like once per generation.
You sure were acting like he was just some guy last year, when you were clinging to the notion of "sample size". Pretty sad when the former best player ever has to Allen-Iverson his way to 29 PER, when LeBron does the exact same thing playing the right way on less shot attempts. LeBron is the high-game high-efficiency guy in the playoffs, not Jordan.

I think you skimming over Jordan playing badly during title runs and his first MVP season is what looks the most biased. No player should ever get credit for winning a title if they have sub-par stats at the GOAT tier (1988, 1992, 1997).
At the same age, Jordan had 3 titles; LeBron has 2, but has been there 5 times.
Please don't start doing this btw, it looks extremely unscientific. Doing this is not going to build up your credibility here. And no, he was born in February 1963. Judging by basic arithmetic that would make him 30+ years old in 1993.

LeBron also lost in 2009, stop. No one in this discussion deserved to get a ring more than LeBron in 2009. The Heat had -0.49 EWA in the 2014 Finals except for James, who was at almost 2 EWA. Hello Skip, is that you? He'd have another one in 2014 if he was on the 94 or 95 Bulls.

You're better than this. Where are the apbrmetrics?
Jordan then quit for almost 2 years, to play baseball, golf, etc. Perhaps the time off gave him some extra motivation, renewed his concentration, etc. We'll see how LeBron holds up, mentally and physically; but it seems he needs to change teams every few years. That makes him more like Wilt or Shaq.
And as soon as you miscalculated his age and brought up rings your argument lost all credit. Come on, that's not going to work here. LeBron deserves two rings for what he did in 2009.

In their prime, in the postseason through age 30, by WS and WS/48:

2010 LeBron > 1988 Jordan
2012 LeBron > 1990 Jordan
2009 LeBron > 1991 Jordan
2013 LeBron >> 1992 Jordan
2014 LeBron ? 1989/1993 Jordan

Pretty solid victory for James. I gave him the toss-up twice to be fair, still doesn't help. LeBron also still has his age 30 season to go and has almost a 3 WS lead.

That's not cherry picking, it is called consistency, dude.

Outside their prime (playoffs) by WS and WS/48:

2011 LeBron > 1995 Jordan (I'll excuse Jordan for being terrible this year, but that's it.)
2006-2008 LeBron > 1985-1987 Jordan

But aside from the above, yeah you're right it is just a coincidence that LeBron is so much more consistent.... Give me a break.

LeBron is better. He's also even more impressive going by his PER to usage rate.
Your link is of playoff work from age 24 to 29. You know that includes LeBron's fabulous 2009, his .318 WS/48 barely pushing him past Jordan for the same interval.
Make it 25 to 29, and LeBron drops to 5th, after Jordan, Kareem, Mikan, and Wilt.
Neither of these makes anything a 'trend'.
They both won MVPs at their BBR age 24 season, stop. It is a fine starting point.

I didn't start earlier because Jordan kept going Indianapolis Colts on us. BTW I liked the Colts so I can say this. ;]

Look at my little exercise above. It doesn't matter how you slice it LeBron's best post-seasonssszzs (plural, did you get that?) are better than Jordan's through the same age. And by a nice little amount.
After age 29, still requiring 1000 playoff minutes, its:
.250 - Jordan
.210 - Robinson
.208 - Chris Andersen
.199 - Magic
.192 - Dirk
.190 - Barkley
Jordan's on his own planet here. Predicting anyone else will go there is rather extreme speculation.

I'm not considering any 'accolades' at all in my rankings. If you are a good team player you tend to get into playoffs. If you step up in the playoffs, you get into more playoff games. If you win a title, you get a bonus equivalent to 10 additional playoff games' worth of production 'credits'.
Whatever you say, LeBron needs 12 win shares at .250 WS/48 and Jordan is pretty much in the rear view mirror. I would predict .260-.270 over these next three years for LeBron, btw.

If you don't want to have an apbr debate that's fine, but it is pretty easy to see the inconsistencies in your arguments. I was impressed by LeBron's career arc long before he came to Miami, and am more impressed now that he's maintained this pace and is off to greener pastures.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:18 pm
by Mike G

Code: Select all

 Jordan kept going Indianapolis Colts on us. BTW I liked the Colts so I can say this.
I'm still a Colts fan, so I can continue. They were often the favorites, and often lost early in the playoffs.
Were the Bulls with Jordan ever beaten by an inferior team, either by seeding or by SRS?

Code: Select all

.    Jordan       b-r         LeBron
yr    seed  poRd  age      yr   seed  poRd
..                 19     2004    9    
..                 20     2005    9    
1985    7    1     21     2006    4    2
1986    8    1     22     2007    2    4
1987    7    1     23     2008    4    2
1988    3    2     24     2009    1    3
1989    6    3     25     2010    1    2
1990    3    3     26     2011    2    4
1991    1    5     27     2012    2    5
1992    1    5     28     2013    1    5
1993    2    5     29     2014    2    4
1994               30            
1995    5    2     31            
1996    1    5     32            
1997    1    5     33            
1998    1    5     34
Seed is within conference. poRd is playoff round reached. A championship is given 5, since the round-4 opponent was beaten.
Age is according to b-r.com, not as I have "miscalculated".
Until this year, when LeBron had a great Finals, his team won.

Ranking their pre-age-30 playoff runs by their teams' seeding, it looks like this:

Code: Select all

.    Jordan              LeBron
yr    seed  poRd       yr   seed  poRd
1991    1    5        2013    1    5
1992    1    5        2009    1    3
1993    2    5        2010    1    2
1990    3    3        2012    2    5
1988    3    2        2007    2    4
1989    6    3        2011    2    4
1985    7    1        2014    2    4
1987    7    1        2006    4    2
1986    8    1        2008    4    2
LeBron is 1/3 from a #1 spot, while Jordan was 2/2 (and would go on to be 5/5).

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:46 pm
by Mike G
LeBron's PER-to-Usage ratio is already far better than Jordan's.
I don't recall this ratio being used before, but fair enough.
Of players with higher PER than Usg%, there have been 100 with >2780 minutes in a season. Number of times:
# PER > Usg%
10 - Stockton
7 - Magic, Mutombo,
4 - Kidd, Anthony Mason, Ben Wallace
3 - Barkley, Garnett, Gilmore, Marion, Chris Paul, Rodman
2 - Kareem, Bogues, Cheeks, Pau Gasol, Laimbeer, David Robinson
1 - Brent Barry, Battier, Billups, Brand, PJ Brown, Michael Cage, Tyson Chandler, Divac, James Donaldson, Eaton, Marc Gasol, Horace Grant, Al Horford, Dwight, Iguodala, Mark Jackson, LeBron, DeAndre Jordan, Kirilenko, Moses, Cedric Maxwell, Rodney McCray, Nance, Nater, Noah, Odom, Bo Outlaw, Parish, Poquette, Terry Porter, Unseld, Darrell Walker, Buck Williams
http://bkref.com/tiny/Sp1rP

A lot of great players don't make the cut, and some forgettable ones are in.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:55 pm
by hoopthinker
I can't believe that you are wasting your time with a well known lebron fanboy like huevonkiller.to see his maipulations to proclaim his favorite player as the GOAT look no further than this.
In their prime, in the postseason through age 30, by WS and WS/48:

2010 LeBron > 1988 Jordan
2012 LeBron > 1990 Jordan
2009 LeBron > 1991 Jordan
2013 LeBron >> 1992 Jordan
2014 LeBron ? 1989/1993 Jordan
So he is picking and choosing haphazardly seasons that lebron WS and WS/48 exceeds that of MJ :lol: Of course in the 1991 PS MJ posted a WS/48 of 0.333 that is superior to every lebron PS except 2009 but he compares jordan 1991 with lebron 2009!.Also he doesn't mention 2011 Lebron(his worst season) and 1989 jordan both seasons in their prime.It is obvious that he uses the data in a selective and unscientific way to advance his favorite worldview.
As to the original question who was better in their prime in the playoffs again his link is giving clear answers http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =ws_per_48

Lebron had a Ortg of 119 with Usg% around 31% and jordan had an Ortg of 120 with Usg% almost 36%!!So MJ had higher efficiency and higher usage also.No doubt who was the better offensive player.
Now for defence boxscore data are unreliable to discern the true defencive impact of players as many previous studies have shown.So a poor defencive metric like Drtg connot be trusted to make definite comparisons even more when the distance between the 2 is so small(lebron 102-MJ 103).Also he forgots to mention that MJ had a higher PER (29.8 to 29.4)
Concluding in their primes in the playoffs, jordan was clearly a better offensive player than lebron although the poor quality of the boxscore defencive data doesn't allows us to make a definite judgement about their true defencive impacts.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:37 pm
by DSMok1
ASPM and VORP for LeBron and MJ, using latest regression:

Image

Pretty comparable (this is regular season only), but LeBron with a slight edge to that point in their careers.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:30 am
by Mike G
Most playoff Win Shares by a given age, NBA only, top 10 plus LeBron/Jordan:

Code: Select all

21        G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G         21       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G
Kawhi    35    1154    17.7    .178    4.3    .122        Rondo    26    831    15.8    .121    2.1    .081
Magic    19     785    21.3    .184    3.0    .158        B Davis  14    454    20.6    .204    1.9    .138
Kobe     50    1525    17.7    .087    2.8    .055        Holiday  18    682    17.8    .133    1.9    .105
Parker   44    1541    14.7    .085    2.7    .062       Marques J  9    321    27.2    .280    1.9    .208
Harden   23     657    18.5    .192    2.6    .114     14 LeBron   13    604    23.2    .135    1.7    .131
D Gibson 31     686    15.0    .170    2.4    .078     37 Jordan    4    171    24.7    .198    0.7    .176
                                                        
22        G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G         22       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G
Kawhi    58    1890    18.0    .184    7.2    .125        Rondo    40   1408    17.4    .125    3.7    .092
Kobe     66    2219    20.0    .141    6.5    .099        Durant   23    953    22.3    .178    3.5    .154
Magic    33    1347    21.8    .204    5.7    .173        Barkley  25    905    21.9    .181    3.4    .137
LeBron   33    1497    23.7    .174    5.4    .164        Ibaka    43   1212    17.0    .135    3.4    .079
Harden   43    1287    19.7    .188    5.0    .117                                
Duncan   26    1107    23.5    .213    4.9    .189     52 Jordan    7    306    27.1    .182    1.2    .166
                                                        
23        G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G         23       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G
Kobe     85    3052    20.1    .143    9.1    .107        Dwight   37   1491    23.7    .196    6.1    .165
Magic    48    1990    21.4    .188    7.8    .162        Kareem   24   1012    27.0    .277    5.8    .243
Durant   43    1790    24.7    .203    7.6    .176        Harden   49   1530    19.9    .174    5.5    .113
LeBron   46    2049    23.8    .177    7.6    .164        P George 54   2065    16.9    .128    5.5    .102
Kawhi    58    1890    18.0    .184    7.2    .125                                
Rondo    64    2383    17.6    .127    6.3    .099     86 Jordan   10    434    27.4    .177    1.6    .160
                                                        
24        G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G         24       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G
LeBron   60    2629    26.8    .226   12.4    .206        Kareem   35   1522    25.5    .234    7.4    .212
Magic    69    2827    21.8    .191   11.2    .163        Kawhi    58   1890    18.0    .184    7.2    .125
Kobe     97    3583    20.4    .141   10.5    .109        Rondo    73   2728    17.5    .124    7.0    .097
Durant   54    2275    25.0    .204    9.7    .179        Duncan   39   1633    24.1    .201    6.8    .175
Wade     50    2040    23.9    .189    8.0    .161                                
Dwight   51    1988    23.3    .193    8.0    .157     44 Jordan   20    861    27.9    .205    3.7    .184
                                                        
25        G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G         25       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS    WS/G
LeBron   71   3089    27.1    .229    14.7    .208        Duncan   48   2013    25.6    .209    8.8    .183
Magic    88   3514    21.9    .195    14.3    .162        Prince   81   2945    15.2    .143    8.8    .108
Kobe    119   4556    20.5    .142    13.5    .113        Worthy   72   2554    18.4    .160    8.5    .118
Durant   73   3090    24.4    .189    12.2    .167        Shaq     58   2217    27.6    .180    8.3    .143
Rondo    92   3538    18.5    .131     9.7    .105                                
Dwight   57   2246    23.7    .198     9.3    .163     14 Jordan   37   1579    28.8    .235    7.7    .209
                                                        
26       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        26       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron   92   4011    26.3    .222    18.6    .202       Durant   73   3090    24.4    .189    12.2    .167
Magic   102   4055    22.4    .205    17.3    .170       Jordan   53   2253    29.7    .249    11.7    .221
Duncan   72   3034    26.5    .233    14.7    .205       Worthy   96   3450    18.9    .157    11.3    .118
Kobe    119   4556    20.5    .142    13.5    .113       Frazier  61   2573    19.2    .195    10.5    .171
Kareem   57   2556    25.5    .236    12.6    .220       Ho Grant 82   3062    15.3    .161    10.3    .125
                                                        
27       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        27       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  115   4994    27.1    .234    24.3    .212       Shaq     89   3532    28.5    .192    14.1    .159
Magic   120   4721    22.9    .213    20.9    .175       Nowitzki 76   3532    24.1    .202    14.9    .196
Jordan   70   2942    30.2    .269    16.5    .236       Frazier  78   3338    19.3    .193    13.4    .172
Duncan   82   3439    26.2    .227    16.3    .198       Worthy  111   4050    19.3    .160    13.5    .122
Kobe    126   4870    20.5    .139    14.1    .112       Russell  67   2966    21.2    .210    13.0    .194
                                                        
28       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        28       G    Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  138   5954    27.3    .238    29.5    .214       Russell  80   3583    21.1    .208    15.5    .194
Magic   144   5686    22.9    .211    25.0    .174       Frazier  90   3829    19.6    .192    15.3    .170
Jordan   92   3862    29.5    .256    20.6    .224       Kobe    131   5085    20.7    .138    14.6    .112
Duncan  105   4308    26.0    .220    19.7    .188       Grant   111   4106    16.2    .168    14.4    .129
Shaq    105   4208    28.5    .203    17.8    .169       Worthy  120   4416    19.2    .155    14.3    .119
                                                        
29       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        29      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Bird    105   4398    22.2    .196    18.0    .171
Magic   158   6204    22.9    .210    27.1    .172       Kobe    152   5948    21.3    .144    17.8    .117
Jordan  111   4645    29.6    .258    25.0    .225       Russell  90   4034    20.8    .207    17.4    .193
Duncan  118   4801    26.4    .223    22.3    .189       Grant   132   4975    16.1    .163    16.9    .128
Shaq    124   4984    28.5    .208    21.6    .174       Mikan    67   1440    28.9    .260    16.8    .251
                                                        
30       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        30      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Kobe    175   6888    22.0    .157    22.5    .129
Magic   167   6580    23.1    .210    28.8    .172       Bird    128   5413    22.1    .188    21.2    .166
Duncan  138   5537    26.6    .222    25.6    .186       Russell 102   4595    20.8    .216    20.7    .203
Jordan  111   4645    29.6    .258    25.0    .225       West    102   4231    24.2    .229    20.2    .198
Shaq    136   5465    28.7    .211    24.0    .177       Grant   141   5309    16.6    .166    18.4    .130
                                                        
31       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        31      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Kobe    198   7811    22.4    .161    26.2    .132
Magic   186   7403    23.0    .209    32.2    .173       Russell 119   5409    20.8    .213    24.0    .202
Shaq    158   6382    28.1    .210    27.9    .177       Bird    145   6176    21.9    .183    23.5    .162
Duncan  155   6203    26.1    .211    27.3    .176       West    120   5061    23.7    .222    23.4    .195
Jordan  121   5065    29.2    .249    26.3    .217       Wilt     80   3818    27.0    .244    19.4    .243
                                                        
32       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        32      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Kobe    208   8165    22.3    .158    26.9    .129
Magic   186   7403    23.0    .209    32.2    .173       Russell 128   5799    20.4    .204    24.6    .193
Jordan  139   5798    28.9    .257    31.0    .223       Bird    145   6176    21.9    .183    23.5    .162
Shaq    171   6813    27.5    .202    28.7    .168       West    120   5061    23.7    .222    23.4    .195
Duncan  160   6367    26.1    .210    27.9    .174       Wilt     98   4650    25.4    .232    22.5    .229
                                                        
33       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        33      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
Jordan  158   6602    28.7    .254    34.9    .221       Kobe    220   8641    22.4    .157    28.3    .128
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Russell 147   6668    19.9    .190    26.4    .180
Magic   186   7403    23.0    .209    32.2    .173       Wilt    116   5501    24.6    .218    25.0    .215
Shaq    194   7572    26.7    .192    30.3    .156       West    135   5669    23.2    .206    24.3    .180
Duncan  170   6740    25.7    .204    28.6    .169       Bird    150   6383    21.8    .181    24.1    .160
                                                        
34       G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G        34      G     Min     PER    WS/48    WS     WS/G
Jordan  179   7474    28.6    .255    39.7    .222       Kobe    220   8641    22.4    .157    28.3    .128
LeBron  158   6717    27.7    .242    33.9    .214       Russell 165   7497    19.4    .178    27.8    .168
Magic   186   7403    23.0    .209    32.2    .173       West    152   6307    23.1    .204    26.8    .176
Shaq    198   7693    26.6    .189    30.3    .153       Wilt    128   6055    24.1    .204    25.7    .201
Duncan  176   6952    25.4    .199    28.8    .164       Bird    160   6779    21.5    .175    24.7    .154
Through age 29, LeBron has more WS than anyone else thru age 32.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:18 pm
by huevonkiller
Hoop, everyone knows that PER doesn't adjust for usage appropriately. It is also pretty obvious.

It has already been proven that WS/48 predicts better for this precise reason. Regardless, PER proves Lebron is better not worse. Look at my new signature, there's no getting around this.
hoopthinker wrote:I can't believe that you are wasting your time with a well known lebron fanboy like huevonkiller.to see his maipulations to proclaim his favorite player as the GOAT look no further than this.
Not at all, I liked LA when I was younger and disliked LeBron quite a bit. Ask some of the other members here, you can search for this btw.

It isn't an opinion. Anyone honestly looking at MJ's boxscore will see mini-LeBron: less WS, less WS/48, terrible usage-to-PER-ratio compared to James, and Allen Iverson ball usage, through age 29. And he's smaller so he can't defend David West and Blake Griffin. The only advantage Jordan has is that LeBron is 29. But LeBron only needs 3 more efficient post-seasons and then he passes Jordan for good.
So he is picking and choosing haphazardly seasons that lebron WS and WS/48 exceeds that of MJ :lol: Of course in the 1991 PS MJ posted a WS/48 of 0.333 that is superior to every lebron PS except 2009 but he compares jordan 1991 with lebron 2009!

Nope. Literally every single post-season through age 29, LeBron wins (rank them from best-to-worst).

And you citing raw offensive rating is pretty irrelevant, since Jordan's era was relatively poor defensively.
.Also he doesn't mention 2011 Lebron(his worst season) and 1989 jordan both seasons in their prime.It is obvious that he uses the data in a selective and unscientific way to advance his favorite worldview.
Irrelevant.

Lebron is more consistent, so when you take his 6th/7th/8th best post-season, and compare it to Jordan through age 29, Jordan is slightly worse.


Jordan was pretty bad in 1995. Considering what the Bulls did the year after (and the year before without jordan), it just shows he is indeed worthy of criticism. And Jordan was awful during some years he won the title, whereas LeBron has been historically better in years he didn't win the title. That's the difference.
As to the original question who was better in their prime in the playoffs again his link is giving clear answers http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_48[b]

Lebron had a Ortg of 119 with Usg% around 31% and jordan had an Ortg of 120 with Usg% almost 36%!!So MJ had higher efficiency and higher usage also.No doubt who was the better offensive player.
Now for defence boxscore data are unreliable to discern the true defencive impact of players as many previous studies have shown.[/b]So a poor defencive metric like Drtg connot be trusted to make definite comparisons even more when the distance between the 2 is so small(lebron 102-MJ 103).Also he forgots to mention that MJ had a higher PER (29.8 to 29.4)
Concluding in their primes in the playoffs, jordan was clearly a better offensive player than lebron although the poor quality of the boxscore defencive data doesn't allows us to make a definite judgement about their true defencive impacts.
Nope. Ceteris paribus, significantly less usage is better with PER, not worse. See Pau Gasol versus Russell Westbrook, or Horace Grant versus Scottie Pippen. You're not versed in the metrics, I've thought about this much longer than you have. LeBron's all-around game is what makes him better, not just one side of the ball.

And Jordan has 29.4 PER on Iverson touches through age 32, stop. http://bkref.com/tiny/QE76L
Your argument is not logical. The only thing that makes this even a debate is that LeBron went so far into the playoffs in 2011 with awful chemistry, instead of losing in the second round or whatever like 1988 Jordan. When you compare their best seasons at this stage in their careers, LeBron does more, and in his terrible years he does more. And in Cleveland LeBron obliterates this discussion.

Jordan's raw offensive rating is pretty pointless for this debate, his league was much worse defensively. LeBron defends Roy Hibbert and leads his team in rebounding, sorry but the defensive versatility is not close. Jordan retires and his team improves on defense. I didn't want to mention that, but you're not being that objective.

WS/48 is better than any analysis you have provided, because It takes into account ball hogging better than Raw PER. I elucidated on this in the other thread.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 6:09 pm
by huevonkiller
Mike G wrote:Most playoff Win Shares by a given age, NBA only, top 10 plus LeBron/Jordan:

[/code]Through age 29, LeBron has more WS than anyone else thru age 32.
Mike I just wanted to say that I actually do usually enjoy your posts, and the back-and-forth thing we have done over the years. I shall continue this discussion in a more academic manner in the other thread, though. Thanks for this latest post, I had forgotten that nifty fact.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:01 am
by Mike G
b-r.com has player stats for individual playoff series; in their Advanced stats, they have Usg%, O and DRtg, but not WS/48 nor PER.
A earlier discussion prompted me to devise "faux win shares" based on these numbers. The formula I came up with is:
fWS/48 = ((Usg% + 40)*(ORtg/DRtg)^3 - 28)/330

I got fws/48 for every playoff series for both Jordan and LeBron.
Since a 7-game series will likely result in more fWS than a 3- or 4-game series -- at least for a superstar -- I decided to weigh series equally, at first: Just look at fWS/48 and fWS/G

There's a striking difference between the two when you separate their series by playoff round:

Code: Select all

1st   USG%     ORtg     DRtg    fws48    fws    perG
MJ    36.4    124.2    105.8    .312     .91    .260
LBJ   31.2    124.1     99.6    .351    1.38    .299
                        
2nd   USG%     ORtg     DRtg    fws48    fws    perG
MJ    36.1    116.0    103.9    .245    1.10    .211
LBJ   32.3    115.6    100.1    .285    1.27    .244
                        
ECF   USG%     ORtg     DRtg    fws48    fws    perG
MJ    34.4    118.3    103.4    .257    1.20    .221
LBJ   32.3    116.0    102.8    .232    1.30    .210
                        
Fin.   USG%    ORtg     DRtg    fws48    fws    perG
MJ    36.1    116.7    105.0    .234    1.21    .210
LBJ   30.7    107.0    108.8    .125     .62    .109
LeBron's best Finals, 2012, was good for .185 fWS/48 and .170 per game.
Jordan's weakest Finals, 1996, was .189 fWS/48 and .166/G

If we weigh Finals x4, ECF X3, rd2 X2, and rd1 X1
then add them up, then divide by 10, we get:

Code: Select all

.     fws48  perG
MJ     .251  .218
LBJ    .211  .185
btw, the fWS formula gives Jordan 39.7 total playoff fWS (he has 39.8 WS), and LeBron totals 34.8 (vs 33.8 WS)

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:22 am
by huevonkiller
An interesting debate, however none of Jordan's series in the Finals compare to 09 Lebron against a superior defense. 2014 LeBron was also slightly the next most impressive #2 series, from a quality of opponent and efficiency standpoint. And the problem with Portland Jordan, is that that was probably one of his worst defensive series, from a boxscore perspective.

The Lakers had a 110.6 Defensive rating, the Portland Trailblazers had a 110.1 Defensive rating, and the Suns had a 110.2 defensive rating. This is an average of about 110.3, or in other words worse than the 2014 Philleh Sixers.

The 2009 Magic had a defensive rating of 105.3, OKCity had a 107.4 Defensive rating, the 2013 Spurs had a 101.1 Defensive rating, and the 2014 Spurs had a 104.2 Defensive rating. LeBron James didn't get to the Finals in 2009, the GOAT run. I just think this goes back to the first point, LeBron should not be asked to lose to the Wizards in order to help his career averages, or be penalized because Mo Williams isn't great.

Comparing those series you mentioned
2009 LeBronORL: 38.8% USG, 118 offensive rating unadjusted, 123~ when accounting for easier opponent, and 40.0AST%
1993 JordanPHX: 38.9% USG, 119 offensive rating unadjusted, -4.9 pejorative o-rating environment, and 28.4 AST%

LeBron pretty easily wins this one. In fact this is obviously the GOAT post-season, yet he didn't get to the Finals. This is why I am not big on that weighted system (Finals x4, ECFx3).

2014 JamesSPU: 32.9% USG, 120 offensive rating unadjusted, 126~ when accounting for easier opponent, and 25.1 AST%.
1991 JordanLAL: 31.9% USG, 125 offensive rating unadjusted, -6.4 pejorative o-rating environment, and 45 AST%.

This one is somewhat close, but it looks like Lebron is a tad more efficient. LeBron's d-rating is also 4 points below the Heat's rating, which is better than Jordan as well. Also the rest of the heat had negative EWA combined, which accounts for them losing. LeBron had 31 PER and slightly better defensive boxscore numbers.

2013 LeBronSPU: 29.7% USG, 113 o-rating unadjusted, 122~ after accounting for easier opponent, 30.1 AST%
2012 LeBronOKC: 32% USG, 117 o-rating unadjusted, 119.5~ after accounting for easier opponent, 31 AST%
1992 JordanPOR: 35.9% USG, 116 o-rating unadjusted, -9 pejorative o-rating environment (v. LeBronSPU), -2.7 pejorative o-rating environment (v. LeBronOKC), 30.7 AST%

The Problem with this 1992 version of Jordan, is that his D-rating was higher than the amount his team gave up. Meaning his defensive boxscore numbers were pretty bad, he was just playing offense. It was a pretty close call, but I certainly noticed this observation.

Feel free to comment on my new post in the other thread as well.

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:43 am
by Mike G
I think the term (ORtg/DRtg)^3 pretty well takes care of differences in era. The Eastern Conf. was stronger in Jordan's day, so LeBron's playoff numbers are more inflated, if anything.
Ranked by 'faux win shares' per 48, Jordan's 37 playoff series and LeBron's 29:

Code: Select all

goat yr  rd   opp  Usg  ORtg  DRtg   fws48    goat  yr  rd   opp  Usg  ORtg  DRtg  fws48
LBJ  09   2   Atl   36   145    91   .841      MJ   90   1   Mil   37   119   106   .246
LBJ  09   1   Det   35   134    89   .688      LBJ  07   2   NJN   28   114    98   .240
MJ   91   1   NYK   30   134    93   .548      MJ   92   4 * Por   36   116   104   .234
MJ   92   1   Mia   41   136   102   .496      LBJ  13   3   Ind   30   121   106   .232
MJ   96   1   Mia   34   130    95   .492      LBJ  11   3   Chi   30   111    97   .232
MJ   93   1   Atl   37   131   100   .440      MJ   93   3   NYK   39   113   103   .229
MJ   96   3   Orl   30   131   100   .393      MJ   98   3   Ind   35   122   110   .227
LBJ  10   1   Chi   31   132   101   .392      MJ   95   1   Cha   38   115   105   .224
LBJ  14   1   Cha   32   127    99   .373      LBJ  14   3   Ind   31   118   105   .221
LBJ  11   1   Phl   25   131   101   .346      MJ   98   1   NJN   36   120   110   .212
MJ   90   2   Phl   41   124   103   .342      MJ   97   4 * Uta   38   113   105   .209
LBJ  12   2   Ind   33   118    95   .340      MJ   93   4 * Phx   39   119   112   .202
MJ   89   2   NYK   34   129   105   .333      MJ   97   2   Atl   32   111   102   .196
MJ   96   2   NYK   38   121   100   .332      MJ   96   4 * Sea   31   116   107   .189
MJ   88   1   Cle   39   126   105   .330      LBJ  09   3   Orl   39   118   113   .187
MJ   91   3   Det   30   132   106   .327      LBJ  12   4 * Okl   32   117   109   .185
MJ   91   4 * LAL   32   125   102   .316      MJ   92   3   Cle   38   111   106   .185
MJ   89   1   Cle   41   121   103   .311      LBJ  11   2   Bos   32   109   102   .180
LBJ  12   1   NYK   35   114    95   .309      LBJ  13   4 * SAS   30   113   105   .178
MJ   91   2   Phl   38   123   104   .308      MJ   89   3   Det   33   112   106   .177
MJ   97   1   Was   35   132   110   .305      MJ   85   1   Mil   29   120   112   .172
LBJ  07   1   Was   28   126   102   .304      LBJ  14   4   SAS   33   120   116   .160
LBJ  08   1   Was   32   123   102   .297      MJ   87   1   Bos   39   115   115   .154
LBJ  13   1   Mil   29   117    96   .296      LBJ  06   1   Was   34   113   111   .153
LBJ  13   2   Chi   28   118    97   .286      MJ   88   2   Det   31   106   103   .150
MJ   97   3   Mia   38   108    94   .273      MJ   92   2   NYK   37   107   107   .149
LBJ  14   2   Brk   32   132   112   .272      LBJ  10   2   Bos   32   106   105   .138
LBJ  07   3   Det   30   113    95   .270      LBJ  08   2   Bos   38    96    98   .137
MJ   98   2   Cha   36   114   100   .256      MJ   86   1   Bos   40   115   119   .133
MJ   93   2   Cle   39   118   105   .254      LBJ  06   2   Det   33   102   103   .131
MJ   98   4 * Uta   41   111   100   .252      MJ   95   2   Orl   35   107   110   .125
LBJ  12   3   Bos   34   115   101   .247      LBJ  11   4   Dal   23   102   110   .067
MJ   90   3   Det   32   117   102   .246      LBJ  07   4   SAS   36    83   104   .032
LeBron more than holds his own at the top, with 5 of the 10 best series.
At the bottom, he also rules, with his first two Finals -- clunkers both -- and 6 of the bottom 10.

Jordan's worst series is his comeback '95 short-circuit vs Orlando.
After that, it is ironically the short series against Boston in '86, when he scored 63 in a game. But no one was playing any defense for the Bulls, and his DRtg sinks him.

One reason LeBron's WS (and fWS) totals are approaching Jordan's is that his playoff series have been longer.
In their 6 title seasons, all Bulls' 1st-round series were 3-0 sweeps. In 13 opening series, Jordan averaged 3.5 games.
LeBron's teams have averaged 4.8 games in 1st rounds.

In round 2, it's still LeBron, by 5.7 - 5.3
In conf. finals, LeBron by 6.2 - 5.6
In Finals, thanks to some quickies, LeBron is outlasted by 5.8 - 5.4 games

edit: Looked up Finals opponents and their SRS -- Jordan's 6 opponents averaged 5.84, LeBron's 5 avg 5.77

Re: 1952-2014 statistical rankings of 708 NBA/ABA careers

Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:38 pm
by huevonkiller
We were only discussing a very small sample size in the previous post, and LeBronORL had more impressive individual metrics than JordanPHX. I don't see why using defensive rating there should apply really. It shouldn't matter that LeBron wasn't in the Finals that year. The same sort of theory applies to the 2014 Heat, especially when Portland Jordan happened.

Over 1000/2000/3000+ minutes I can see the usefulness of Faux win shares. But not when trying to determine who had the most successful handful of games in the playoffs (as in 4 or 6). D-rating is even worse like that. The previous post was about Finals average, which is just another way of saying losing to the 2007 Wizards improves LeBron's career average in the Finals. My whole point was, it is a nice feat regardless that James got there, given that Jordan was in his rookie season at that same stage in his career.
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