APBRmetrics

kjb wrote:... Lebron is replacing not damn much at SF. And his teammates tend to shoot better when he's around. I think Cleveland jumps by 15-20 wins next season.

If this has become the conventional wisdom, then it's much like every season of his career -- there's inordinate pressure on LeBron to produce something miraculous.
Luol Deng is not much? He's an all-star and all-Defensive player.
LeBron is a large upgrade at the position; but by some 6-8 additional wins, not 15.

I had Deng as being worth 2.8 kWins (total) for Cleveland last year. The rest of the SFs on Cleveland's roster (as listed by b-r) were worth zero kWins. So, if Lebron has the same kind of season next season as he did last year for Miami, he'd be adding about 11.9 wins.

Deng was terrible in his 40 G with the Cavs. I have him at 2.34 eWins in that time -- Less than 5 eW for 82 games at that rate.
In 23 games for the Bulls, he was at a 9.4 eW/year rate.

I guess Cle didn't really have a functioning SF before they acquired Deng.

Almost a month ago I suggested that the roster at that point stood a strong chance of losing in first round. That was based on them getting a 3 or 4 seed. A lot has changed since, so the scenario is now very different.

With Love apparently coming, the question to me is whether they make the finals next season. I lean toward no.

Crow wrote:With Love apparently coming, the question to me is whether they make the finals next season. I lean toward no.

Why so? Do you see someone else in the East improving more? Or just taking the odds of an injury or fluky playoff series? Some of it is certainly bandwagonism, but Bovada currently has the Cavs as outright favorites to win the East (4 to 5 odds) and are the top team for the title (5 to 2).

In short, I don't think their defense will be elite and think they might suffer from one or both of young players taking playoff shots they shouldn't take or teams doubling / reducing James and other guys not taking efficient advantage. I feel more confident about what the Bulls will do generally. The Bulls-Cavs match-up will be strength on strength (Cavs offense vs. Bulls defense) and the reverse weakness on weakness). That outcome seems hard to predict, but all I said is that I lean toward the entire better eastern conference having a bit more than even chance to keep 1st yr new Cavs from finals. Injury chances are also a part of it. I also probably am less favorable about Irving, Waiters and Thompson than most. Blatt is also new to the NBA. It has been a long time since a first year NBA coach got to the finals (Riley 32 yrs ago. Even Jackson with MJ didn't do this.

If their first round opponent has a 5% chance to beat them and the 3-6 seed is given a 10-15% chance in the second round, then the best challenger only needs a bit more than a 30-35% chance in the conference finals to give the edge to this guess / lean.