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Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:00 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote:
Mike G wrote:...
Are these adjusted for HCA ?
Yes, they are. I used HCA of 3.25 points/100 poss. They are also adjusted for SoS based on who actually played in the game (based on regular season BPM ratings)--that's why everything is positive for most offense/defense units. That doesn't affect the relative values of the players in the game vs. each other, but does affect the numbers I show, which should be valid vs. an average NBA player like BPM always is.
The expected team ratings based on lineup last night and regular season BPM: GSW +13.7 / +8.6 O / +5.1 D. CLE +5.5 / +5.5 O / +0.0 D.
I'd expect GSW+Cle 'points generated' to sum to +19.2*Pace/100, in game 3. And that is correct.
Yet in these 4 games, we have:
Code: Select all
. Cle GSW both teams
G Off Def total Off Def total Off Def total
1 6.5 1.6 8.2 5.5 7.5 13.0 12.0 9.1 21.2
2 0.8 11.6 12.4 -3.6 10.7 7.2 -2.8 22.3 19.6
3 3.7 6.0 9.7 1.7 6.0 7.7 5.4 12.0 17.4
4 -3.2 -1.1 -4.3 8.8 10.7 19.5 5.6 9.6 15.2
The final column suggests that the combined productions of the Finalists are steadily eroding away.
What does it mean? Lineups should both be doing better, but they can't both do better?
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:14 pm
by DSMok1
Aha! It's because worse players (measured over the course of the season) are playing. Kyrie is gone. Bogut scarcely playing. So BPM sees the overall quality of the game decreasing. Last night, in particular, there was garbage time with worse players getting court time.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:37 am
by Mike G
Warriors 3, Cavs 2
avg score 99.8 - 92.8
pyth wins 3.62 - 1.38, eWins 3.06 - 1.94
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e500
1.35 LeBron James Cle 46 .475 28.0 10.0 6.4 2.5 1.0 2.8 .4 2.97
.88 Stephen Curry GSW 42 .585 27.3 4.3 5.7 1.7 1.4 4.4 .2 2.07
.52 Andre Iguodala GSW 37 .608 16.7 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.0 1.2 .4 1.39
.51 Draymond Green GSW 36 .477 13.0 7.9 4.7 4.7 2.0 2.1 1.2 1.42
.38 Timofey Mozgov Cle 27 .588 20.7 9.0 .9 2.7 .8 3.8 1.2 1.39
.36 Klay Thompson GSW 40 .517 15.6 3.8 1.7 2.5 .5 .6 .9 .89
.25 Tristan Thompson Cle 42 .500 7.1 11.4 .3 2.4 .7 .8 .8 .60
.19 Kyrie Irving Cle 9 .511 19.2 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.4 1.0 1.6 2.26
.19 David Lee GSW 7 .564 24.2 9.2 6.3 7.3 .9 .9 .0 2.60
.15 Harrison Barnes GSW 32 .463 9.0 7.5 1.1 3.2 .9 .9 .7 .47
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e500
.12 Shaun Livingston GSW 18 .455 8.0 7.0 5.9 3.1 .8 2.4 .4 .68
.12 Andrew Bogut GSW 15 .455 4.9 11.8 3.4 5.4 .5 2.0 2.5 .78
.10 Leandro Barbosa GSW 10 .565 20.2 4.7 1.6 4.0 .7 2.8 .7 1.03
.07 Festus Ezeli GSW 8 .500 11.4 11.5 2.1 6.2 .0 2.7 1.8 .92
.04 Marreese Speights GSW 3 .321 14.8 10.4 2.5 6.2 2.1 2.1 .0 1.32
.01 J.R. Smith Cle 34 .397 7.8 4.5 1.0 3.4 .4 .8 .8 .02
-.05 Mike Miller Cle 6 .750 4.2 1.2 .0 3.6 1.2 1.4 .0 -.90
-.06 Iman Shumpert Cle 36 .388 4.8 4.1 .8 2.7 2.2 1.2 .6 -.16
-.06 Matt Dellavedova Cle 33 .404 8.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 1.5 3.4 .0 -.19
-.08 James Jones Cle 17 .517 5.6 2.9 .7 6.4 1.6 1.4 .4 -.45
rebounds: Cle 44.0 - 43.4 GS
turnovers: Cle 13.6 - 13.8 GS
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:52 am
by DSMok1
Single Game Box Plus/Minus:
LeBron's trying, but... he isn't getting much help.
And here are the totals through the first 5 games in the series:
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:02 pm
by Mike G
Thanks for the series totals.
In the OP, a table starts like this:
Code: Select all
Cavs Min PER e480 eWins WS WS/48 BPM VORP
LeBron 569 24.8 2.91 3.42 2.15 .181 9.7 1.7
...
Your table above says LeBron's BPM for the Finals is 10.7 -- up from 9.7 thru the ECF.
Yet on b-r.com, the Cavs page lists his playoff BPM to date as 11.0, for 798 min.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... eries_team
How can a 10.7 BPM (in 228 min.) raise a 9.7 to 11.0 ?
By my calculations, it should be : (798*11.0 - 569*9.7)/229 =
14.2 BPM for Finals (G 1-5)
Pace would be a small factor, but: Players on both teams have discrepancies large and small, positive and negative.
Mozgov was 0.7 coming in. After 5 games at 2.3, he's now at 0.4 ?
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:49 pm
by DSMok1
Single game BPM is not the full BPM computation, and doesn't include the nonlinear terms (so it will stay more stable in small sample sizes like here). That's the difference.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:53 pm
by Mike G
Here's everyone with 20+ minutes in the series. eWins and eW/484 are calculated exclusively for this series; PER, WS, BPM, and VORP are implied/inferred from: (total playoff minutes and rates) - (pre-finals min. and rates). <-- see the OP
Some variation will be expected from pace changes -- GSW have slowed down more in the Finals.
Code: Select all
Cavs Min PER e484 eWins WS WS/48 BPM VORP
LeBron 228 27.7 2.97 1.35 .86 .182 14.3 .93
Thompson 209 13.9 .60 .25 .53 .121 .0 .10
Shumpert 179 6.3 -.16 -.06 .02 .005 -.1 .08
Smith 168 5.7 .02 .01 -.04 -.012 -3.5 -.06
Mozgov 136 19.1 1.39 .38 .36 .125 -.4 .05
Dellav'a 166 4.9 -.19 -.06 -.20 -.057 -4.2 -.09
Jones 85 4.1 -.45 -.08 .05 .030 -2.1 .00
Irving 43 26.8 2.26 .19 .13 .141 8.5 .11
Miller 28 2.4 -.90 -.05 .01 .022 -3.8 -.01
Cavs 1250 13.1 .77 1.93 1.71 .066 1.45 1.08
GSW Min PER e484 eWins WS WS/48 BPM VORP
Curry 212 20.1 2.07 .88 .68 .153 6.4 .44
Thompson 202 14.1 .89 .36 .56 .134 2.0 .20
Iguodala 186 16.9 1.39 .52 .75 .194 5.8 .36
Green 180 15.5 1.42 .51 .63 .167 5.5 .34
Barnes 162 11.6 .47 .15 .42 .123 2.6 .19
Living'n 88 10.6 .68 .12 .18 .096 -1.0 .02
Bogut 74 10.5 .78 .12 .21 .138 2.6 .09
Barbosa 50 14.1 1.03 .10 .11 .104 -2.0 .00
Ezeli 38 12.4 .92 .07 .10 .132 -1.5 .00
Lee 37 24.4 2.60 .19 .24 .312 7.4 .09
GSW 1248 15.1 1.23 3.06 3.84 .148 3.42 1.69
Win Shares sum to 5.55 after 5 games. PER look like they should all be 0.9 higher (to sum to 15)
EDIT: 'Single game BPM' has been dropped from this table. Those shown are derived from formula shown a couple of posts up. Based on current BPM showing at b-r.com and BPM/minutes shown before the Finals.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:55 pm
by Mike G
Single game BPM is not the full BPM computation, and doesn't include the nonlinear terms (so it will stay more stable in small sample sizes like here). That's the difference.
Ah. So the 5-game totals are just the 5 single games, totaled?
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:10 pm
by DSMok1
Yes.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:49 am
by Mike G
Is there any reason not to derive single series (or game) BPM the way I've done it (and PER, and WS/48) from the larger sample, just by subtracting the minutes * rates before the ongoing series?
Do they not add up that way?
If you've got a series of 'single game BPM' that do not add up to the postseason BPM we see at b-r.com, are these BPM even legit? It seems the more stable one is the one you don't have to ignore after the totals are in. Is Steph Curry running a SGBPM of 3 to 5 in other series as well? Can these give him a total playoff BPM of 8.8 ?
One implication in the dueling BPM systems: As I've derived it, LeBron is the only member of the Cavs with positive BPM in the Finals (after game 1 Irving). He has produced (93/108) 86% of the team's Value (ORP) -- and 96% of the non-Irving VORP.
He also has more than twice the VORP of any member of the Warriors. Curry has .44 vs LeBron's .93
Other stats concur, it's a landslide at this point.
Can a loser win Finals MVP ? Can he not?
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:34 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote:Is there any reason not to derive single series (or game) BPM the way I've done it (and PER, and WS/48) from the larger sample, just by subtracting the minutes * rates before the ongoing series?
Do they not add up that way?
If you've got a series of 'single game BPM' that do not add up to the postseason BPM we see at b-r.com, are these BPM even legit? It seems the more stable one is the one you don't have to ignore after the totals are in. Is Steph Curry running a SGBPM of 3 to 5 in other series as well? Can these give him a total playoff BPM of 8.8 ?
One implication in the dueling BPM systems: As I've derived it, LeBron is the only member of the Cavs with positive BPM in the Finals (after game 1 Irving). He has produced (93/108) 86% of the team's Value (ORP) -- and 96% of the non-Irving VORP.
He also has more than twice the VORP of any member of the Warriors. Curry has .44 vs LeBron's .93
Other stats concur, it's a landslide at this point.
Can a loser win Finals MVP ? Can he not?
In very small sample sizes, the interaction terms of the full BPM can produce unrealistic outlier solutions. The way you are doing it is as good as any, but I don't know how stable the regression is for numbers like LeBron's--no one in my long term RAPM regression had box score numbers approaching what he is doing. Therefore, I'd trust a more simplified, linear regression more for such a case. Both have value as two different looks at the same data, neither is "right."
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:45 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote:In very small sample sizes, the interaction terms of the full BPM can produce unrealistic outlier solutions. ..
We all get that. :]
Let me ask in a slightly different way: Why not use the considerably larger sample size based on 19-20 games; subtract out the considerable sample size of the first 14-15; and get a BPM that's (a) more stable AND (b) consistent with the BPM shown at b-r.com? Seems like a win-win.
For what it's worth, both Win Shares and eWins correlate better with
extracted BPM than with the streamlined version, in this series. Minutes are better correlated -- with or without Irving in the sample -- even with the Cavs giving big minutes to poor (by every measure) players.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:52 pm
by Mike G
Other than LeBron and Irving, the Cavs in the Finals have total PER = 9.1, eW/484 = .20, WS/48 = .035, BPM = -1.85
Basically Mozgov and replacement types.
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:34 am
by Mike G
Warriors 4, Cavs 2
avg score 100.7 - 93.5
Pyth wins 4.37 - 1.63, eWins 3.68 - 2.32
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e497
1.57 LeBron James Cle 46 .468 27.1 10.7 6.6 2.5 1.1 3.3 .4 2.84
1.07 Stephen Curry GSW 43 .578 26.8 4.3 6.2 1.9 1.6 4.1 .1 2.09
.70 Draymond Green GSW 37 .488 13.6 8.0 5.7 4.6 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.56
.69 Andre Iguodala GSW 37 .576 18.1 5.5 4.4 2.9 1.1 1.0 .3 1.53
.54 Timofey Mozgov Cle 28 .609 21.4 9.9 1.1 2.8 .6 3.9 1.8 1.58
.37 Klay Thompson GSW 38 .505 15.0 4.1 1.9 3.2 .5 .8 1.0 .80
.34 Tristan Thompson Cle 41 .517 8.3 11.7 .3 2.4 .6 .9 .8 .69
.19 Kyrie Irving Cle 7 .511 19.3 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.4 1.0 1.6 2.21
.17 David Lee GSW 7 .537 21.6 8.3 5.8 6.8 .9 .9 .0 2.14
.15 Harrison Barnes GSW 33 .477 9.1 6.3 1.1 3.2 .9 .8 .6 .37
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e497
.14 Leandro Barbosa GSW 11 .554 18.2 5.0 1.8 3.6 1.6 2.1 .5 1.08
.13 Festus Ezeli GSW 8 .537 16.9 11.2 1.6 6.1 .0 2.8 2.1 1.35
.13 Shaun Livingston GSW 20 .517 9.2 5.8 4.3 3.1 .6 1.7 .6 .54
.11 Andrew Bogut GSW 12 .455 4.9 11.4 3.4 5.4 .5 2.0 2.5 .73
.08 J.R. Smith Cle 34 .421 9.4 4.6 1.0 3.3 .5 .8 .8 .19
.04 Marreese Speights GSW 3 .321 14.5 9.9 2.4 6.1 2.0 2.1 .0 1.20
-.05 Mike Miller Cle 5 .750 4.1 1.2 .0 3.5 1.2 1.4 .0 -.88
-.10 Iman Shumpert Cle 36 .390 5.2 4.0 .6 3.2 1.9 1.4 .6 -.24
-.12 Matt Dellavedova Cle 32 .385 7.2 3.1 2.9 3.6 1.3 3.4 .0 -.31
-.13 James Jones Cle 19 .476 5.3 2.5 .6 5.7 1.2 1.4 .3 -.59
shooting: GS .528 - .470 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.9 - 42.7 GS
turnovers: GS 13.0 - 14.5 Cle
Re: 2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors
Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:44 pm
by Mike G
Again extracting PER, WS, and BPM for these last 6 games -- Finals rates and totals:
Code: Select all
GSW Min PER e484 eWins WS WS/48 BPM vorp
Curry 255 20.2 2.09 1.07 .83 .156 6.5 .54
Thompson 227 12.2 .80 .37 .50 .106 1.3 .19
Iguodala 223 18.0 1.53 .69 .92 .198 5.8 .43
Green 222 16.3 1.56 .70 .81 .176 6.3 .46
Barnes 197 10.7 .37 .15 .47 .115 2.1 .20
Living'n 121 10.9 .54 .13 .29 .116 -.3 .05
Bogut 74 10.5 .73 .11 .21 .138 2.6 .09
Barbosa 64 15.6 1.08 .14 .17 .126 .0 .03
Ezeli 49 17.5 1.35 .13 .19 .186 -1.1 .01
Lee 39 21.9 2.14 .17 .22 .271 5.0 .07
GSW 1490 15.2 1.24 3.69 4.59 .148 3.44 2.03
Cavs Min PER e484 eWins WS WS/48 BPM vorp
LeBron 275 26.3 2.84 1.57 .90 .156 13.7 1.08
Thompson 247 14.4 .69 .34 .63 .122 -.3 .10
Shumpert 215 5.5 -.24 -.10 -.01 -.003 -.9 .06
Smith 202 7.3 .19 .08 .06 .015 -2.8 -.04
Dellav'a 191 3.4 -.31 -.12 -.26 -.067 -4.8 -.13
Mozgov 169 21.5 1.58 .54 .59 .167 2.3 .18
Jones 113 2.8 -.59 -.13 .03 .012 -3.5 -.04
Irving 43 26.8 2.21 .19 .12 .131 8.5 .11
Miller 28 2.4 -.88 -.05 .01 .020 -4.2 -.02
Cavs 1490 13.0 .78 2.31 2.04 .066 1.39 1.26
Win Shares likes Iguodala for Finals mvp!