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Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:57 pm
by Mike G
At .254 of the season, last year's best team also seems to have the most individual improvers this season.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.87 Draymond Green GSW .563 15.2 9.1 8.9 1.94 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
.87 Kawhi Leonard SAS .598 28.5 8.3 2.9 2.47 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
.86 Kyle Lowry Tor .584 25.2 5.2 6.6 2.13 .519 19.5 5.1 7.2 1.60
.80 Jerami Grant Phl .495 13.1 5.9 1.4 .91 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
.80 Andre Drummond Det .497 20.4 17.6 .9 2.31 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
.80 Nicolas Batum Cha .559 19.2 6.7 4.4 1.33 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
.78 C.J. McCollum Por .510 20.6 3.6 3.6 1.19 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
.75 Zach LaVine Min .537 20.9 5.0 5.1 1.31 .508 14.1 4.1 4.7 .59
.67 Ian Mahinmi Ind .526 12.1 9.8 2.4 1.29 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
.67 Paul George Ind .587 30.6 7.8 4.5 2.33 .545 26.5 7.2 3.6 1.86
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 Gary Harris Den .590 13.8 3.5 2.5 .59 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
.63 Evan Fournier Orl .561 19.5 3.9 2.5 1.05 .538 15.7 3.4 2.2 .59
.61 Rajon Rondo Sac .470 11.8 6.9 10.9 1.46 Dal .444 10.4 6.5 9.9 1.08
.61 Dwight Powell Dal .560 15.3 10.1 1.9 1.39 .539 13.2 6.9 1.3 .67
.59 Kent Bazemore Atl .580 16.4 5.2 2.8 1.08 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
.59 Avery Bradley Bos .578 20.9 2.9 2.6 1.18 .504 16.2 3.6 2.0 .68
.59 Will Barton Den .577 18.0 6.9 2.3 1.28 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
.57 Thaddeus Young Brk .526 18.4 10.1 1.4 1.41 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
.57 Andrew Wiggins Min .499 22.2 4.1 1.7 1.15 .506 16.3 4.7 1.9 .74
.56 Matt Dellavedova Cle .544 11.1 3.0 6.8 .77 .489 8.4 3.3 5.3 .25
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.56 Stephen Curry GSW .695 38.8 5.2 6.8 3.06 .629 30.4 4.6 9.0 2.70
.56 Aaron Gordon Orl .526 14.2 8.2 2.1 1.20 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
.56 Festus Ezeli GSW .558 15.3 11.2 2.1 1.66 .565 14.7 10.1 .7 1.03
.55 Marvin Williams Cha .567 12.7 8.1 1.6 .99 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
.53 Isaiah Thomas Bos .547 26.4 2.5 7.5 1.96 .567 24.2 3.1 5.4 1.56
.52 Eric Bledsoe Phx .550 22.8 4.3 6.7 1.70 .544 18.6 5.4 6.1 1.36
.52 Reggie Jackson Det .525 24.5 4.7 7.0 1.76 .505 18.2 5.1 7.2 1.39
.51 Victor Oladipo Orl .476 17.9 7.0 4.4 1.51 .518 18.7 4.3 3.6 1.06
.50 Andre Iguodala GSW .615 10.9 5.8 5.3 1.01 .546 11.1 4.3 4.2 .61
.48 Shane Larkin Brk .552 13.5 3.8 5.1 .91 NYK .499 9.1 3.5 3.9 .30
Rush, Barnes, and Bogut are also in the top 50 most improved. Ridiculous.
Draymond was all-defensive 1st team last year, but he's yet to make an AllStar team. Likely that changes this year, as he leads the Dubs in Reb and Ast, #3 in Stl and Blk, #2 in WS and VORP ..
Remember when he was a .327 shooter?
Kawhi is similarly undecorated, but for that Finals MVP. He's a total superstar now, leading a Spurs team which is to date their best ever and the 2nd best (SRS) team of the current century.
Downers:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.19 Ty Lawson Hou .441 8.7 2.8 5.2 .23 Den .516 15.5 3.1 9.2 1.28
-1.14 George Hill Ind .530 14.1 3.9 4.1 .84 .570 22.4 5.1 6.3 1.82
-.88 James Harden Hou .553 27.3 5.8 5.5 1.97 .589 30.1 5.6 7.0 2.49
-.84 Danny Green SAS .429 10.3 5.3 2.7 .47 .590 17.0 5.5 2.5 1.13
-.83 Kobe Bryant LAL .405 17.3 4.4 3.4 .85 .469 22.3 6.0 5.1 1.56
-.79 Paul Pierce LAC .430 7.6 4.5 1.7 .04 Was .570 18.4 5.7 2.5 1.09
-.77 Klay Thompson GSW .575 21.2 3.9 3.1 1.27 .584 27.1 3.5 3.5 1.83
-.68 Lou Williams LAL .529 16.7 2.4 2.4 .69 Tor .552 23.2 2.7 2.9 1.36
-.66 Anthony Davis NOP .546 23.6 10.6 1.3 2.08 .579 27.3 10.7 2.1 2.58
-.66 Marc Gasol Mem .542 18.1 8.1 3.8 1.46 .547 21.8 8.8 4.2 1.89
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.65 Joe Johnson Brk .443 11.2 4.8 3.4 .43 .518 15.6 5.0 3.6 .89
-.63 Shabazz Muhammad Min .530 15.2 4.8 .6 .44 .545 20.8 6.5 1.6 1.31
-.63 Corey Brewer Hou .410 9.7 3.6 2.0 .20 .499 15.6 5.1 3.0 .88
-.60 Ersan Ilyasova Det .553 16.4 5.9 1.4 .83 Mil .548 19.8 7.7 1.4 1.35
-.59 Chris Paul LAC .553 20.2 3.6 9.1 1.72 .588 22.1 4.8 11.1 2.30
-.59 Tayshaun Prince Min .433 4.7 3.9 1.4 -.18 Det .499 11.5 5.4 2.3 .55
-.59 Derrick Rose Chi .403 15.2 3.5 6.5 .92 .487 22.3 3.8 6.3 1.46
-.58 Jamal Crawford LAC .507 17.8 2.3 3.2 .73 .523 21.9 2.6 3.4 1.25
-.57 Zach Randolph Mem .482 17.0 10.3 1.8 1.19 .529 20.1 12.1 2.5 1.75
-.56 Kevin Martin Min .482 15.9 3.5 1.5 .56 .540 21.5 4.1 2.2 1.14
West with 80% of the biggest declines.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 11:58 am
by Mike G
Klay Thompson reduces his season deficit to -.60 with last night's game: 39 pts on .874 shooting, 7 reb, 6 ast ...
Now just 15th on the 'under' list.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 2:05 pm
by Mike G
Here again are cross references, summarized, for improvements across eWins, PER, Win Shares, and BPM -- averaged, then multiplied by Minutes/484 to roughly scale to
wins added in this year's minutes, over last year's rates.
For Paul George,
last year is 20013-14.
Code: Select all
xyz W+ yr1 to yr2 tm Min eW1 eW2 PER1 PER2 WS1 WS2 BPM1 BPM2
.76 1.30 Kyle Lowry Tor 823 1.60 2.13 19.3 25.8 .141 .252 3.6 9.7
.54 .88 Stephen Curry GSW 791 2.70 3.06 28.0 34.7 .288 .372 9.9 12.8
.74 .80 Zach LaVine Min 523 .59 1.31 11.3 16.9 -.018 .091 -4.5 .7
.52 .77 Paul George Ind 726 1.86 2.33 20.1 26.4 .178 .243 4.7 7.6
.50 .73 Kawhi Leonard SAS 709 1.85 2.47 22.0 26.2 .204 .287 6.1 8.3
.80 .70 Gary Harris Den 425 -.16 .59 4.9 13.1 -.046 .082 -4.3 -.2
.85 .69 Aaron Gordon Orl 392 .48 1.20 11.4 18.4 .060 .177 -2.8 3.7
.53 .67 Will Barton Den 612 .78 1.28 13.6 19.3 .063 .147 -.6 2.1
.53 .65 Jerami Grant Phl 596 .26 .91 8.7 14.1 .019 .076 -3.3 -.2
.38 .65 Rajon Rondo Sac 813 1.08 1.46 13.5 17.5 .037 .083 -.5 2.0
xyz W+ yr1 to yr2 tm Min eW1 eW2 PER1 PER2 WS1 WS2 BPM1 BPM2
.43 .63 Reggie Jackson Det 712 1.39 1.76 17.2 21.3 .104 .158 .8 3.9
.51 .61 Avery Bradley Bos 578 .68 1.18 11.5 15.8 .049 .129 -1.7 1.5
.63 .60 Ian Mahinmi Ind 464 .56 1.29 10.8 16.1 .090 .155 -1.2 3.4
.46 .60 Andre Iguodala GSW 633 .61 1.01 12.3 16.0 .117 .187 1.6 4.8
.39 .58 Evan Fournier Orl 724 .59 1.05 12.4 14.1 .059 .119 -2.1 .7
.55 .56 Kent Bazemore Atl 490 .47 1.08 9.7 16.0 .057 .121 -1.8 1.2
.41 .56 Marvin Williams Cha 653 .57 .99 11.8 15.9 .102 .164 1.0 3.2
.46 .54 Matt Dellavedova Cle 569 .25 .77 8.5 13.6 .067 .136 -2.6 -.6
.31 .51 Andre Drummond Det 792 1.80 2.31 21.4 24.5 .147 .177 -.2 1.2
.55 .50 Dwight Powell Dal 438 .67 1.39 13.8 19.8 .122 .190 -.9 1.7
Disclaimer: The eW/484 rates shown are a couple days old. Most teams played 1 game in the meantime, some none; Orl played 2.
These are the top 20 in W+, starting from my top 30 in eW+. Dropouts include my #1 guy, Draymond Green. BPM says he's
down from last year, despite improvements in almost every stat.
He did have one bad game that I didn't count.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:23 pm
by Mike G
At .343 of the season, here are players with at least 0.25 eWins above or below last year's rates, in this year's minutes.
Code: Select all
eW+ Atl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.03 Kent Bazemore .581 17.0 5.3 2.7 1.15 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
.38 Paul Millsap .563 20.7 9.2 3.6 1.88 .554 20.5 8.8 3.5 1.74
...
-.28 Justin Holiday .457 7.9 2.7 1.3 -.03 GSW .493 13.3 3.7 2.7 .64
-.44 Mike Muscala .534 9.9 5.0 1.4 .39 .602 15.5 8.2 1.8 1.11
-.51 Al Horford .540 18.3 7.6 3.6 1.53 .558 20.1 8.6 4.2 1.83
-.52 Jeff Teague .522 19.5 3.0 7.0 1.36 .555 21.1 3.0 8.6 1.71
-.53 Tiago Splitter .556 10.9 5.9 1.6 .59 SAS .590 17.1 8.9 2.8 1.35
-.63 Kyle Korver .607 12.5 4.1 2.5 .60 .691 16.8 4.6 3.0 .95
eW+ Bos Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.64 Isaiah Thomas .548 25.1 3.0 7.6 1.86 .567 24.2 3.1 5.4 1.56
.53 Jae Crowder .569 16.2 5.5 2.1 1.08 .510 13.6 6.2 1.9 .81
.45 Avery Bradley .550 18.5 2.6 2.4 .93 .504 16.2 3.6 2.0 .68
.25 Amir Johnson .562 12.1 8.3 2.5 1.09 Tor .595 13.9 8.6 2.2 .92
-.46 Jonas Jerebko .471 7.6 6.3 2.0 .26 .544 13.4 7.9 1.9 .87
eW+ Brk Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.84 Thaddeus Young .520 17.8 10.5 1.5 1.40 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
.50 Shane Larkin .542 12.4 3.7 5.1 .82 NYK .499 9.1 3.5 3.9 .30
.41 Jarrett Jack .506 15.3 5.1 6.7 1.12 .514 15.9 3.9 5.5 .92
...
-.25 Bojan Bogdanovic .522 11.8 4.3 1.0 .28 .556 14.3 4.1 1.2 .45
-.28 Wayne Ellington .466 10.4 3.2 1.0 .21 LAL .501 13.4 4.5 2.0 .54
-.45 Andrea Bargnani .493 15.9 5.2 .5 .58 NYK .519 20.2 6.0 1.9 1.20
-.77 Joe Johnson .444 11.4 4.3 3.5 .49 .518 15.6 5.0 3.6 .89
eW+ Cha Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.24 Nicolas Batum .550 18.6 6.8 5.1 1.43 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
.87 Marvin Williams .543 12.4 8.3 1.6 1.05 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
.43 Kemba Walker .533 20.3 4.3 5.3 1.54 .479 19.1 3.8 5.0 1.35
.29 Jeremy Lamb .551 18.1 6.4 2.2 1.19 Okl .532 16.6 5.7 2.4 .98
.25 Jeremy Lin .537 16.6 3.8 4.3 1.07 LAL .528 15.7 3.7 5.5 .91
eW+ Chi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.38 Doug McDermott .553 14.6 3.1 1.1 .42 .476 11.6 4.4 .7 .10
-.36 Nikola Mirotic .510 16.8 8.0 2.0 1.11 .544 19.3 8.4 2.1 1.43
-.92 Derrick Rose .415 15.5 3.3 5.9 .88 .487 22.3 3.8 6.3 1.46
eW+ Cle Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.00 Matt Dellavedova .573 12.4 2.9 6.8 .94 .489 8.4 3.3 5.3 .25
.63 Kevin Love .559 21.5 12.5 2.9 1.96 .552 19.1 10.9 2.4 1.63
.37 Tristan Thompson .535 9.8 13.1 1.1 1.14 .566 12.3 11.1 .7 .89
.27 LeBron James .558 29.9 8.2 6.8 2.52 .565 28.2 6.3 7.6 2.43
...
-.26 R Jefferson .542 11.5 2.4 1.6 .25 Dal .567 12.8 5.0 1.8 .48
-.30 Andy Varejao .447 7.3 8.8 1.5 .47 .573 15.9 10.0 2.1 1.24
eW+ Dal Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.54 Dwight Powell .557 14.3 9.3 1.5 1.16 .539 13.2 6.9 1.3 .67
.48 Zaza Pachulia .552 13.5 12.6 2.3 1.39 Mil .498 13.3 10.6 3.5 1.13
.31 Deron Williams .532 17.2 3.4 6.5 1.24 Brk .496 15.4 4.1 7.0 1.08
.27 Dirk Nowitzki .576 22.2 8.0 2.3 1.70 .552 22.1 7.0 2.3 1.57
...
-.25 J.J. Barea .472 13.6 3.0 6.4 .74 .497 14.9 3.3 7.0 1.03
-.26 Jeremy Evans .750 8.4 5.7 .2 .31 Uta .621 13.4 9.4 1.7 1.14
-.27 C Villanueva .508 16.4 6.3 1.4 .87 .531 20.5 7.2 1.0 1.33
-.47 Chandler Parsons .501 14.0 4.3 2.5 .60 .560 18.2 5.2 2.8 1.11
-.61 Wesley Matthews .509 15.1 3.3 2.1 .69 Por .580 19.1 3.9 2.5 1.07
eW+ Den Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.96 Will Barton .562 18.7 7.2 2.5 1.33 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
.88 Gary Harris .568 13.5 3.2 2.1 .51 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
.50 Joffrey Lauvergne .560 16.4 12.3 2.3 1.55 .451 10.9 9.5 1.6 .59
.47 Danilo Gallinari .549 18.7 6.5 2.7 1.32 .553 18.6 5.3 1.9 1.10
.36 Kenneth Faried .553 17.1 12.5 1.5 1.57 .538 16.4 11.3 1.5 1.33
-.37 Randy Foye .447 9.4 3.2 3.0 .21 .506 13.9 2.7 3.6 .54
eW+ Det Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.02 Andre Drummond .492 19.9 17.2 1.0 2.23 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
.99 Reggie Jackson .530 25.3 4.9 7.2 1.87 .505 18.2 5.1 7.2 1.39
.36 K Caldwell-Pope .502 14.7 3.2 2.0 .70 .496 14.8 3.5 1.4 .56
-.32 Aron Baynes .491 11.0 8.8 1.6 .70 SAS .608 16.7 10.1 1.1 1.12
-.60 Ersan Ilyasova .539 15.8 6.4 1.5 .96 Mil .548 19.8 7.7 1.4 1.35
eW+ GSW Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.31 Draymond Green .552 15.5 9.2 8.6 2.01 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
.65 Brandon Rush .616 12.3 6.4 2.0 .71 .252 2.7 4.9 1.6 -.38
.63 Festus Ezeli .557 15.4 11.2 1.8 1.56 .565 14.7 10.1 .7 1.03
.55 Andre Iguodala .574 9.6 5.8 5.0 .95 .546 11.1 4.3 4.2 .61
.40 Harrison Barnes .595 16.9 6.0 2.7 1.17 .566 13.8 6.8 1.9 .82
.40 Andrew Bogut .628 10.1 11.8 4.6 1.67 .561 10.4 11.9 4.5 1.22
.30 Stephen Curry .677 35.7 5.6 7.1 2.80 .629 30.4 4.6 9.0 2.70
...
-.26 Leandro Barbosa .505 13.1 2.9 3.7 .61 .552 17.6 3.1 3.7 .99
-.33 Shaun Livingston .520 8.4 3.2 4.5 .45 .522 11.5 4.2 6.7 .76
-.47 M Speights .407 14.2 8.6 2.0 .76 .538 24.0 9.0 2.2 1.78
-.60 Klay Thompson .606 23.2 4.0 3.3 1.43 .584 27.1 3.5 3.5 1.83
eW+ Hou Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.55 Clint Capela .568 13.4 11.6 1.2 1.46 .395 10.7 13.2 .8 1.02
-.40 Terrence Jones .518 14.5 7.1 1.5 .92 .558 16.6 8.8 1.6 1.28
-.61 Corey Brewer .443 10.5 3.6 2.6 .39 .499 15.6 5.1 3.0 .88
-.88 James Harden .564 27.9 5.7 6.3 2.06 .589 30.1 5.6 7.0 2.49
-1.30 Ty Lawson .420 7.7 2.5 5.9 .31 Den .516 15.5 3.1 9.2 1.28
eW+ Ind Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.06 Ian Mahinmi .562 12.7 10.1 2.3 1.35 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
.35 Paul George .560 28.1 7.6 4.1 1.99 2014 .545 26.5 7.2 3.6 1.86
...
-.32 Rodney Stuckey .514 15.4 4.2 3.7 .86 .520 18.5 4.8 4.2 1.16
-.37 Lavoy Allen .445 8.2 8.4 2.0 .56 .488 10.7 10.5 2.4 .91
-.53 Monta Ellis .472 14.1 3.1 5.5 .91 Dal .502 20.5 2.5 4.7 1.23
-1.75 George Hill .520 13.4 3.8 3.7 .77 .570 22.4 5.1 6.3 1.82
eW+ LAC Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.26 Josh Smith .466 12.4 7.5 3.0 .94 Hou .461 15.8 8.2 4.5 1.27
-.31 Austin Rivers .465 10.6 2.6 1.9 .21 .474 11.9 3.5 3.5 .46
-.34 Lance Stephenson .515 8.7 4.5 3.2 .26 Cha .414 11.0 6.3 5.1 .62
-.39 Luc Mbah a Moute .419 5.4 5.0 .5 -.09 Phl .460 12.0 6.0 1.7 .53
-.54 Chris Paul .556 20.6 3.3 10.4 1.92 .588 22.1 4.8 11.1 2.30
-.94 Paul Pierce .437 7.9 4.0 1.5 .05 Was .570 18.4 5.7 2.5 1.09
-1.05 Jamal Crawford .487 15.2 2.0 3.1 .54 .523 21.9 2.6 3.4 1.25
eW+ LAL Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.29 Brandon Bass .591 10.7 7.2 1.4 .66 Bos .548 16.9 7.3 1.9 1.07
-.48 Roy Hibbert .542 9.8 7.9 2.0 .86 Ind .494 15.7 10.1 1.6 1.20
-.48 Jordan Clarkson .528 16.6 3.8 2.2 .75 .521 17.0 4.6 4.4 1.05
-.55 Nick Young .540 14.1 2.1 .7 .31 .512 19.4 3.4 1.2 .86
-.74 Kobe Bryant .443 19.2 4.5 3.6 1.05 .469 22.3 6.0 5.1 1.56
-.75 Lou Williams .563 17.2 2.9 2.6 .84 Tor .552 23.2 2.7 2.9 1.36
eW+ Mem Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.48 Matt Barnes .520 12.4 6.7 2.0 .84 LAC .569 13.1 4.8 1.9 .55
.45 Mario Chalmers .573 18.1 3.4 4.0 1.10 Mia .511 13.1 3.3 4.6 .60
...
-.28 Tony Allen .413 9.5 6.1 1.5 .51 .520 13.0 6.3 1.9 .78
-.62 Jeff Green .491 13.4 5.1 2.0 .63 .526 18.5 4.9 2.0 1.00
-.74 Zach Randolph .494 16.4 10.3 2.0 1.23 .529 20.1 12.1 2.5 1.75
-.83 Marc Gasol .536 17.9 8.4 4.0 1.48 .547 21.8 8.8 4.2 1.89
eW+ Mia Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.27 Tyler Johnson .621 15.9 3.5 2.6 .83 .499 11.5 5.0 2.4 .53
-.26 Beno Udrih .567 9.9 3.3 3.4 .26 Mem .544 16.1 3.5 5.3 .98
-.31 Goran Dragic .495 14.3 3.9 6.1 .96 .570 19.0 3.8 4.8 1.16
-.52 Gerald Green .538 17.0 3.1 1.0 .67 Phx .527 21.7 4.4 2.1 1.15
eW+ Mil Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.30 MCarter-Williams .491 14.4 4.6 5.7 .94 .454 16.1 5.9 6.7 1.17
-.33 Greivis Vasquez .449 10.0 3.2 5.6 .39 Tor .511 14.2 4.0 5.6 .84
-.40 O.J. Mayo .479 12.9 3.6 3.5 .63 .523 18.3 4.0 3.9 1.00
-.56 Khris Middleton .528 15.9 3.3 3.0 .83 .557 17.9 5.4 2.6 1.11
eW+ Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.92 Zach LaVine .523 20.4 4.7 4.7 1.21 .508 14.1 4.1 4.7 .59
.78 Andrew Wiggins .515 22.7 4.0 1.7 1.12 .506 16.3 4.7 1.9 .74
.73 Ricky Rubio .463 11.6 6.0 10.4 1.60 .444 10.7 6.7 9.1 1.10
...
-.61 Kevin Martin .496 16.8 3.1 1.8 .67 .540 21.5 4.1 2.2 1.14
-.82 Shabazz Muhammad .542 14.7 5.3 .5 .49 .545 20.8 6.5 1.6 1.31
-.86 Tayshaun Prince .448 4.5 3.5 1.4 -.20 Det .499 11.5 5.4 2.3 .55
eW+ NOP Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.28 Ish Smith .481 12.2 4.7 7.8 1.09 Phl .427 13.6 4.1 7.0 .89
-.36 Alexis Ajinca .531 12.2 9.3 .8 .79 .585 17.9 11.7 1.6 1.46
-.40 Alonzo Gee .564 6.2 4.6 1.6 .11 Por .537 12.7 4.7 1.2 .45
-.44 Omer Asik .500 5.2 9.1 .6 .30 .531 10.7 14.0 1.3 1.04
-1.02 Anthony Davis .546 22.9 10.6 1.4 1.97 .579 27.3 10.7 2.1 2.58
eW+ NYK Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.55 Arron Afflalo .556 17.2 4.5 2.1 .89 Por .526 15.1 3.5 1.8 .50
.39 Lance Thomas .612 15.1 3.1 1.1 .47 .451 10.2 4.7 1.6 .16
.37 Jose Calderon .561 10.2 3.8 5.1 .70 .516 11.2 3.6 5.1 .49
.26 Derrick Williams .509 17.0 5.2 1.7 .91 Sac .529 14.6 5.0 1.2 .59
eW+ OKC Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.33 Serge Ibaka .529 16.2 8.5 1.1 1.28 .545 16.3 8.4 1.0 1.13
.32 Steven Adams .572 10.1 9.8 1.0 1.00 .535 11.3 10.4 1.4 .80
-.26 Kyle Singler .323 4.8 4.0 .3 -.33 .508 10.0 3.9 1.7 .18
-.44 Anthony Morrow .532 11.6 2.4 .9 .22 .599 16.7 3.7 1.2 .75
-.48 D.J. Augustin .524 9.4 2.4 3.9 .27 .518 14.7 2.9 6.0 .79
eW+ Orl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.92 Elfrid Payton .459 14.8 4.6 7.0 1.23 .448 10.1 5.1 6.8 .74
.73 Evan Fournier .550 17.9 3.8 2.5 .97 .538 15.7 3.4 2.2 .59
.49 Aaron Gordon .523 11.9 7.8 2.0 .93 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
.44 Tobias Harris .544 17.9 8.3 2.1 1.36 .543 18.6 6.7 1.6 1.15
.36 Victor Oladipo .474 16.8 6.1 4.4 1.26 .518 18.7 4.3 3.6 1.06
.32 Channing Frye .630 12.7 5.5 1.7 .73 .544 10.9 5.7 1.5 .37
eW+ Phl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.85 Jerami Grant .479 12.1 5.8 1.3 .76 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
-.29 Hollis Thompson .517 10.6 4.3 1.4 .24 .533 13.0 3.9 1.5 .42
-.29 Tony Wroten .401 14.5 4.5 3.8 .15 .484 20.4 3.4 5.4 1.15
-.54 Isaiah Canaan .512 14.1 2.5 2.2 .44 .529 17.0 3.2 3.4 .78
eW+ Phx Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.69 Eric Bledsoe .552 22.3 4.3 6.4 1.65 .544 18.6 5.4 6.1 1.36
.45 Jon Leuer .552 14.2 9.5 2.1 1.14 Mem .473 12.5 8.9 2.0 .81
.40 Alex Len .524 12.9 10.4 1.1 1.04 .533 10.3 10.4 .7 .72
.34 T.J. Warren .553 16.3 4.9 1.1 .80 .548 14.2 4.7 1.4 .56
...
-.26 Brandon Knight .535 20.2 4.1 5.1 1.26 .535 20.9 4.4 5.5 1.40
-.34 Markieff Morris .438 15.4 7.2 2.8 .81 .517 17.8 7.0 2.7 1.15
-.40 P.J. Tucker .489 7.6 6.9 1.7 .37 .534 11.0 7.5 1.8 .62
-.60 Tyson Chandler .519 7.1 11.6 .6 .73 Dal .678 14.1 13.3 1.4 1.35
eW+ Por Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.27 C.J. McCollum .536 21.5 3.5 4.0 1.27 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
.55 Allen Crabbe .562 14.1 3.3 1.5 .50 .522 8.9 3.6 2.0 .14
.32 Al-Farouq Aminu .514 13.2 8.3 1.9 .88 Dal .495 10.4 8.5 1.6 .74
.26 Mason Plumlee .548 13.0 10.9 3.4 1.33 Brk .554 15.6 10.4 1.4 1.20
.26 Maurice Harkless .517 9.0 6.2 1.6 .31 Orl .443 7.6 5.5 1.1 .08
...
-.25 Gerald Henderson .498 13.5 4.4 1.5 .44 Cha .507 16.1 4.3 3.0 .82
-.44 Noah Vonleh .472 7.0 7.9 1.0 .27 Cha .466 11.0 11.2 .5 .77
-.47 Meyers Leonard .481 11.3 6.8 2.3 .61 .626 15.4 9.9 1.3 1.05
eW+ Sac Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.06 Rajon Rondo .493 12.3 6.6 11.1 1.58 Dal .444 10.4 6.5 9.9 1.08
-.44 Rudy Gay .519 19.3 7.4 1.9 1.25 .546 22.0 6.2 3.8 1.52
-.44 DeMarcus Cousins .503 26.0 11.3 2.9 2.09 .532 25.9 13.9 3.7 2.46
-.51 Darren Collison .551 15.3 2.1 4.8 .75 .565 17.4 3.4 5.8 1.14
-.63 Marco Belinelli .520 13.6 1.9 2.6 .31 SAS .547 16.0 4.1 2.5 .74
eW+ SAS Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.23 Kawhi Leonard .606 28.0 8.5 3.2 2.46 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
.76 Tony Parker .599 21.1 3.3 7.4 1.71 .533 20.0 2.5 6.6 1.26
-.27 Tim Duncan .556 14.8 11.5 4.4 1.77 .549 19.4 11.7 3.9 2.00
-.77 Danny Green .444 10.9 5.6 2.8 .63 .590 17.0 5.5 2.5 1.13
eW+ Tor Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.84 Kyle Lowry .556 23.5 5.3 6.4 1.94 .519 19.5 5.1 7.2 1.60
.66 DeMar DeRozan .532 24.8 4.6 4.2 1.62 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
.48 Bismack Biyombo .511 8.3 13.3 .4 1.05 Cha .556 9.5 11.5 .4 .75
...
-.36 DeMarre Carroll .477 14.0 5.6 1.5 .76 Atl .594 16.6 6.2 2.0 1.06
-.37 Luis Scola .518 16.5 9.0 1.4 1.15 Ind .505 17.2 11.2 2.3 1.42
-.45 Cory Joseph .530 12.1 3.4 3.9 .68 SAS .554 14.6 4.8 4.7 .96
-.51 Pat Patterson .486 8.7 6.4 1.6 .41 .563 11.4 7.4 2.6 .78
eW+ Uta Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.27 Alec Burks .501 19.2 4.8 2.7 1.04 .513 16.5 4.9 3.4 .88
-.49 Gordon Hayward .561 21.6 5.4 3.3 1.37 .555 23.1 5.5 4.4 1.66
eW+ Was Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2015 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.58 Otto Porter .514 13.0 5.9 2.4 .82 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
.26 Ramon Sessions .567 14.8 3.5 3.6 .80 .478 11.9 4.4 5.2 .57
-.33 Kris Humphries .509 11.8 8.1 1.3 .72 .504 14.1 11.2 1.4 1.16
Teams with no major losers: Hornets, Knicks, Magic
And with no big gainers: Clipps, Lakers, Bucks
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 12:18 pm
by Mike G
Orlando looks like this year's candidate for
universal improvement among all returning players. Last year, it was the Bucks; year before that, the Suns.
This season on the left, last yr on the right:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.92 Elfrid Payton .459 14.8 4.6 7.0 1.23 .448 10.1 5.1 6.8 .74
.73 Evan Fournier .550 17.9 3.8 2.5 .97 .538 15.7 3.4 2.2 .59
.49 Aaron Gordon .523 11.9 7.8 2.0 .93 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
.44 Tobias Harris .544 17.9 8.3 2.1 1.36 .543 18.6 6.7 1.6 1.15
.36 Victor Oladipo .474 16.8 6.1 4.4 1.26 .518 18.7 4.3 3.6 1.06
.32 Channing Frye .630 12.7 5.5 1.7 .73 .544 10.9 5.7 1.5 .37
.23 Andrew Nicholson .561 15.1 7.6 .3 .79 .479 13.2 5.8 1.3 .50
.13 Nikola Vucevic .536 21.4 10.5 3.0 1.86 .543 21.4 11.8 1.9 1.82
.11 Dewayne Dedmon .527 9.5 8.9 .2 .86 .557 9.3 12.3 .3 .66
.03 Shabazz Napier .446 10.3 2.1 5.1 .35 Mia .510 9.6 4.2 4.5 .31
-.02 Devyn Marble .182 3.6 2.0 .0 -.74 .356 5.2 5.2 2.5 -.03
-.11 Jason Smith .546 11.7 5.2 .9 .51 NYK .491 13.0 6.6 2.5 .67
-.16 C.J. Watson .458 8.1 3.2 4.9 .49 Ind .569 16.2 4.1 5.1 1.00
They lost Willie Green, Kyle O'Quinn, Ben Gordon, Ridnour, and Harkless -- guys who totaled 48 mpg last year.
Meanwhile, their returning players are almost universally better this year by these stats:
Code: Select all
. Magics Min PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
Tobias Harris 925 17.9 .155 2.1 16.7 .098 0.0
Evan Fournier 916 14.6 .125 1.2 12.4 .059 -2.1
Elfrid Payton 898 15.2 .084 0.1 13.8 .044 -0.7
Victor Oladipo 797 14.5 .074 0.5 15.9 .065 0.0
Nikola Vucevic 789 22.6 .174 3.7 21.5 .133 0.5
Aaron Gordon 522 16.6 .151 2.3 11.4 .060 -2.8
Channing Frye 429 14.2 .153 2.5 9.5 .053 -0.9
Andr Nicholson 374 13.5 .097 -4.6 10.3 .007 -6.2
Jason Smith 365 11.3 .078 -2.8 NYK 12.0 .032 -3.4
Mario Hezonja 324 9.5 .045 -3.2 rookie
Shabazz Napier 310 10.0 .022 -5.0 Mia 9.3 .024 -2.6
Dewayne Dedmon 242 13.0 .139 -1.2 13.3 .099 -3.3
C.J. Watson 156 11.8 .096 -1.0 Ind 15.4 .135 1.5
Improvements rank from subtle to profound, through their top 8.
Not counting the rookie, they total 6.9 WS (and 3.5 eWins) ahead of last year's rates * this year's minutes.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 1:17 pm
by BasketDork
It feels good to be able to step out of witness protection and admit for the first time in a few years that I'm a Magic fan. I had them at 30 wins this year, and am glad I undershot them, and as they continue to add wings, decent role players, and aren't investing too much all at once in any one player, they're setting themselves up to make a run at a few more really good players in free agency. I knew Oladipo would continue to improve, (seems to leveling off though as of late, numbers seem to reflect this.),and that Vucevic was an all-star caliber player, I knew Elfrid Payton would continue to grow, yet he's still surprised me from year 1 to year 2, but I didnt expect this much improvement in A.Gordon, Tobias or Fournier. Scott Skiles has them hustling, playing harder, and getting better looks. All in all I'm pleasantly surprised.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 1:37 pm
by Mike G
Hornets are another drastically improved team. Lots of their lineup is new this year, including one serious rookie.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '1415 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.24 Nicolas Batum .550 18.6 6.8 5.1 1.43 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
.87 Marvin Williams .543 12.4 8.3 1.6 1.05 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
.43 Kemba Walker .533 20.3 4.3 5.3 1.54 .479 19.1 3.8 5.0 1.35
.29 Jeremy Lamb .551 18.1 6.4 2.2 1.19 Okl .532 16.6 5.7 2.4 .98
.25 Jeremy Lin .537 16.6 3.8 4.3 1.07 LAL .528 15.7 3.7 5.5 .91
.18 Cody Zeller .541 13.3 7.3 1.6 .98 .519 12.2 8.7 2.2 .85
.14 Spencer Hawes .533 11.3 6.7 3.6 .78 LAC .473 11.5 7.1 2.5 .65
.04 Tyler Hansbrough .548 12.1 6.5 1.4 .74 Tor .576 9.5 8.9 .7 .51
-.01 Troy Daniels .593 14.7 2.1 1.3 .31 .513 15.4 2.8 1.7 .43
-.02 Al Jefferson .509 19.8 8.5 2.6 1.70 .495 20.6 10.0 2.0 1.76
-.02 P.J. Hairston .472 10.7 4.8 1.4 .38 .443 12.5 4.6 1.0 .42
-.07 Brian Roberts .418 8.0 3.6 3.8 .22 .491 13.2 2.9 3.9 .56
Their #1 guy in minutes, G Henderson, is gone; as are their #5, 6, 9-17
Here's everyone with >100 minutes, in those other stats:
Code: Select all
. Hornets Min PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
Kemba Walker 974 19.0 .141 2.9 17.6 .101 2.2
Nicolas Batum 919 17.1 .115 2.7 Por 13.1 .105 3.1
Marvin Williams 848 14.1 .132 2.0 11.8 .102 1.0
Jeremy Lin 704 16.0 .120 0.5 LAL 15.6 .068 -0.8
Jeremy Lamb 601 18.4 .142 0.7 OKC 14.9 .123 -1.6
Cody Zeller 594 14.9 .152 0.5 14.1 .123 0.4
Frank Kaminski 505 13.2 .116 -0.2 rookie
Spencer Hawes 459 11.8 .088 -1.1 LAC 9.8 .044 -1.9
P.J. Hairston 447 7.2 .043 -3.1 9.0 .022 -3.5
Al Jefferson 446 19.7 .141 0.4 19.7 .113 0.2
No idea what's behind BPM's failure to recognize Batum's leap forward. WS is pretty
meh, too.
These 10 total an extra 3.8 WS over last year's rates. At that rate, they'll produce 11 WS more than they would have, had they not
improved.
Defying the 'aging curve'?
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:43 pm
by Statman
The last two teams talked about, Orlando & Charlotte, are two teams with the right mix of age & player statistical types that my player projection model saw as being in great situations for big improvement. It had the Hornets being a viable contender in the East with a 14 game improvement from '14-15, & Orlando being in position for a playoff seed with a 13 game improvement.
Based on how my player projections played out, those were probably the two teams I was most curious about going into this season.
As for Orlando specifically, they are so young across the board with diverse talents that should continue to improve. Ignoring the fact there isn't a future projected "superstar" on the team - they seem to easily have the most good/very good future potential on their roster in the NBA. Maybe they'll find a superstar the next couple years - or maybe they'll just be such a strong/deep roster they'll seriously contend in the near future anyway, say like the last few Piston champions.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:01 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:
No idea what's behind BPM's failure to recognize Batum's leap forward. WS is pretty meh, too.
These 10 total an extra 3.8 WS over last year's rates. At that rate, they'll produce 11 WS more than they would have, had they not improved.
Defying the 'aging curve'?
Completely with you on Batum - looked at his production closer to see how BPM could have him worse than last season, WS only slightly better - cannot figure out statistically where the slight possibly could be. It'd make sense if he had a fairly big drop in assist rate relative to defensive rebounds, but that isn't even an issue. This Hornet team is a little better defensively than Portland was, albeit with a slightly faster pace. It's kinda a mystery.
My work has Batum as significantly improved. 5.0 WAR, 8.5 WAR/48, 101 HnI in '14-15 (ranked 71st, 130th, 136th respectively)- in essence a slightly better than average NBA player. This season through Tuesday he's on a 7.8 WAR pace, 11.6 WAR/48, 111 HnI, ranking 45th, 64th, 62nd. As far as I'm concerned, he's having a much improved season.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:47 pm
by BasketDork
Just took a quick look at Batum, it really is a mystery, of all the components of BPM, his ORB%, DRB%, AST%, USG%, TS%, TRB% have all improved, his STL% drop is miniscule (1.7 to 1.6 this year), his TOV% is only 0.3 higher than last year, his BLK% is the same, the only glaring differences are his 3PAr and 3PAr relative to league dropped .515 last year, .461 this year, relative to league he was .247 better last year, this year only .179 better, his TS% is .040 better than last year (.556 from.516), and relative to team, last year it was(-.028) worse than Portland's, this year .017 better than Charlotte's, the only explanations left are his USG% spiked to 23.2 from 14.6 in a more crowded offense last year, but he's coming out on top in the Usage vs. Efficiency matter, and that his reMPG has dropped from 31.73 to 29.64, but that doesn't answer the question either because he's increased his production across the board despite it.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:50 pm
by Mike G
From his BPM peak in 2013-14, Batum has gone to mostly defensive, and now to mostly offensive.
Code: Select all
year tm PER OWS DWS OBPM DBPM
2014 Por 15.8 4.8 3.1 2.4 1.8
2015 Por 13.1 2.0 3.2 0.6 2.6
2016 Cha 17.1 1.0 1.2 1.9 0.8
Win Shares is another story.
Yes, you (Statman) got Cha and Orl pretty close in your predictions. But the Hornets aren't especially young. At 25.9, they're a year below league avg, 10th youngest. Why does Marvin Williams suddenly become a rebounding force at age 29?
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 6:52 pm
by BasketDork
Haven't checked yet, does the team adjustment penalize him more severely with Charlotte than it did with Portland ? While playing with Lilliard, Aldridge helps in overall team department, it hurt HIS numbers more, so where is the perceived dropoff?
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2015 10:37 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:
Yes, you (Statman) got Cha and Orl pretty close in your predictions. But the Hornets aren't especially young.
Looking at my post when the season started
http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=885
Here's how the player
projections looked (NBA avg. WAR/48 is 8.2, average HN/48 would be 100). Used Kevin Pelton's minute projections:
Code: Select all
+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+
| Rank | Player | Confidence | Age | Team | G | Min | MPG | HN/48 | WAR | WAR/48 |
+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+
| 24 | Kemba Walker | 80.14% | 25.23 | cha | 77 | 2618 | 34 | 123 | 9.67 | 14.55 |
| 27 | Al Jefferson | 77.13% | 30.57 | cha | 77 | 2310 | 30 | 130 | 9.12 | 15.55 |
| 60 | Nicolas Batum | 88.87% | 26.63 | cha | 77 | 2618 | 34 | 98 | 6.09 | 9.16 |
| 88 | Frank Kaminsky | 43.72% | 22.32 | cha | 78 | 1560 | 20 | 116 | 4.51 | 11.38 |
| 105 | Cody Zeller | 54.86% | 22.82 | cha | 77 | 1694 | 22 | 104 | 4.14 | 9.63 |
| 107 | Jeremy Lin | 69.05% | 26.94 | cha | 77 | 1694 | 22 | 104 | 4.10 | 9.53 |
| 126 | Jeremy Lamb | 36.11% | 23.17 | cha | 78 | 1560 | 20 | 100 | 3.45 | 8.72 |
| 174 | Marvin Williams | 68.60% | 29.12 | cha | 77 | 1648 | 21 | 87 | 2.59 | 6.18 |
| 239 | Spencer Hawes | 59.93% | 27.26 | cha | 78 | 936 | 12 | 91 | 1.39 | 5.85 |
| 261 | Tyler Hansbrough | 38.11% | 29.74 | cha | 78 | 936 | 12 | 86 | 1.06 | 4.45 |
| 293 | Brian Roberts | 53.24% | 29.66 | cha | 78 | 780 | 10 | 83 | 0.65 | 3.26 |
| 334 | P.J. Hairston | 28.99% | 22.60 | cha | 78 | 936 | 12 | 74 | 0.22 | 0.91 |
| 389 | Troy Daniels | 31.30% | 24.05 | cha | 78 | 390 | 5 | 69 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+
6 of the top 7 minutes guys in the projection were expected to be at least as good if not better than the average NBA player in terms of impact when on the court.
Here's how the
actual WAR pace & WAR/48 for Charlotte guys looked as of Tuesday:
Code: Select all
+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+
| Rank | Player | Pos | Age | G | MP | M/g | WARpace | WAR/48 | Rank |
+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+
| 30 | Kemba Walker | PG | 25 | 27 | 933 | 34.6 | 10.32 | 14.45 | 40 |
| 45 | Nicolas Batum | SG | 27 | 26 | 879 | 33.8 | 7.81 | 11.60 | 64 |
| 78 | Marvin Williams | PF | 29 | 27 | 831 | 30.8 | 5.30 | 8.33 | 116 |
| 82 | Jeremy Lamb | SG | 23 | 26 | 582 | 22.4 | 5.07 | 11.38 | 68 |
| 93 | Jeremy Lin | PG | 27 | 27 | 672 | 24.9 | 4.70 | 9.13 | 98 |
| 94 | Al Jefferson | C | 31 | 17 | 446 | 26.2 | 4.55 | 13.31 | 48 |
| 135 | Cody Zeller | C | 23 | 25 | 560 | 22.4 | 3.33 | 7.77 | 127 |
| 192 | Spencer Hawes | PF | 27 | 26 | 453 | 17.4 | 1.88 | 5.41 | 181 |
| 194 | Frank Kaminsky | C | 22 | 26 | 474 | 18.2 | 1.81 | 4.98 | 194 |
| 257 | Tyler Hansbrough | PF | 30 | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 0.58 | 9.31 | |
| 289 | Troy Daniels | SG | 24 | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 0.22 | 4.57 | |
| 329 | Aaron Harrison | SG | 21 | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 357 | P.J. Hairston | SF | 23 | 24 | 435 | 18.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 300 |
| 367 | Brian Roberts | PG | 30 | 13 | 99 | 7.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+
9 rotation guys, 6 are performing above NBA average. Of those 6, 5 (Walker, Jefferson, Batum, Lamb, Lin) were projected to be above average impact when on the court, Marvin Williams was the one who has gone from below average projection to about average production.
Kaminsky & Zeller (the young guys who aren't performing to projection) w/ Jefferson (mainly missed games) were my over projections, Williams (improved PT & performance) my main under projection, with a small handful of guys playing slightly better than the projections.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 3:16 pm
by Mike G
Categorical improvers and downers, top and bottom 10.
Minimum 400 minutes this year and 200 last year -- 250 players.
Code: Select all
Eff%+ =Pts/(2*fga+fta) 2016 Eff% 2015 Eff%
.148 Gary Harris Den .538 Den .391
.140 Lance Thomas NYK .590 NYK .451
.106 Tyler Johnson Mia .605 Mia .499
.097 Thabo Sefolosha Atl .597 Atl .500
.094 Ronnie Price Phx .544 LAL .450
.093 Jon Leuer Phx .566 Mem .473
.090 Jose Calderon NYK .607 NYK .516
.089 Channing Frye Orl .633 Orl .544
.088 Lance Stephenson LAC .502 Cha .414
.088 Johnny O'Bryant Mil .462 Mil .375
...
-.082 Markieff Morris Phx .435 Phx .517
-.085 Patrick Patterson Tor .478 Tor .563
-.099 Tony Allen Mem .422 Mem .520
-.100 Paul Pierce LAC .471 Was .570
-.100 Meyers Leonard Por .526 Por .626
-.110 Danny Green SAS .480 SAS .590
-.118 DeMarre Carroll Tor .476 Atl .594
-.125 Aron Baynes Det .484 SAS .608
-.125 Tyson Chandler Phx .553 Dal .678
-.133 Kyle Korver Atl .558 Atl .691
Sco+ Pts/36 adjusted 2016 Sco 2015 Sco
7.3 Nicolas Batum Cha 18.0 Por 10.7
6.4 Reggie Jackson Det 24.6 Det 18.2
6.3 Kawhi Leonard SAS 27.5 SAS 21.2
6.1 Allen Crabbe Por 15.0 Por 8.9
6.1 C.J. McCollum Por 22.2 Por 16.1
5.8 Kent Bazemore Atl 16.7 Atl 10.9
5.4 Gary Harris Den 13.1 Den 7.7
5.3 Andrew Wiggins Min 21.6 Min 16.3
5.3 Will Barton Den 19.2 Den 14.0
5.0 Zach LaVine Min 19.1 Min 14.1
...
-6.0 Trevor Booker Uta 7.9 Uta 14.0
-6.0 Luc Mbah a Moute LAC 6.0 Phl 12.0
-6.2 Brandon Bass LAL 10.7 Bos 16.9
-6.4 Alonzo Gee NOP 6.3 Por 12.7
-6.5 Roy Hibbert LAL 9.2 Ind 15.7
-6.7 Tayshaun Prince Min 4.9 Det 11.5
-6.9 Lou Williams LAL 16.3 Tor 23.2
-7.0 Ty Lawson Hou 8.5 Den 15.5
-8.5 George Hill Ind 13.9 Ind 22.4
-8.7 Paul Pierce LAC 9.7 Was 18.4
Reb+ Reb/36 adjusted 2016 Reb 2015 Reb
4.2 Thaddeus Young Brk 10.4 Brk 6.2
2.7 Jared Sullinger Bos 12.7 Bos 10.0
2.4 Zaza Pachulia Dal 13.0 Mil 10.6
2.2 Bismack Biyombo Tor 13.7 Cha 11.5
2.2 Dwight Powell Dal 9.1 Dal 6.9
2.1 Matt Barnes Mem 6.9 LAC 4.8
1.8 Tristan Thompson Cle 12.9 Cle 11.1
1.7 Robert Covington Phl 7.4 Phl 5.6
1.7 Kevin Love Cle 12.6 Cle 10.9
1.7 Tobias Harris Orl 8.4 Orl 6.7
...
-2.1 Timofey Mozgov Cle 8.4 Cle 10.5
-2.1 Marco Belinelli Sac 2.0 SAS 4.1
-2.3 Mirza Teletovic Phx 5.4 Brk 7.7
-2.4 Roy Hibbert LAL 7.8 Ind 10.1
-2.6 DeMarcus Cousins Sac 11.3 Sac 13.9
-2.8 Richard Jefferson Cle 2.2 Dal 5.0
-2.8 Kris Humphries Was 8.3 Was 11.2
-3.0 Meyers Leonard Por 7.0 Por 9.9
-3.0 Noah Vonleh Por 8.2 Cha 11.2
-4.6 Omer Asik NOP 9.4 NOP 14.0
Ast+ Ast/36 adj. 2016 Ast 2015 Ast
3.9 Draymond Green GSW 8.5 GSW 4.5
2.1 Isaiah Thomas Bos 7.5 Bos 5.4
2.0 Mason Plumlee Por 3.5 Brk 1.4
1.9 C.J. McCollum Por 4.2 Por 2.3
1.7 Rajon Rondo Sac 11.6 Dal 9.9
1.4 Shane Larkin Brk 5.3 NYK 3.9
1.4 Russell Westbrook Okl 10.2 Okl 8.8
1.4 Jarrett Jack Brk 6.9 Brk 5.5
1.4 Goran Dragic Mia 6.2 Mia 4.8
1.3 Matt Dellavedova Cle 6.6 Cle 5.3
....
-1.8 Ronnie Price Phx 3.5 LAL 5.3
-1.8 Mo Williams Cle 5.2 Cha 7.0
-1.8 Joe Ingles Uta 2.2 Uta 4.0
-1.9 Rudy Gay Sac 1.9 Sac 3.8
-1.9 Shaun Livingston GSW 4.8 GSW 6.7
-2.0 D.J. Augustin Okl 4.0 Okl 6.0
-2.0 Jordan Clarkson LAL 2.4 LAL 4.4
-2.0 Devin Harris Dal 3.0 Dal 5.1
-2.7 George Hill Ind 3.5 Ind 6.3
-3.4 Ty Lawson Hou 5.8 Den 9.2
Stl+ Steals/36 2016 Stl 2015 Stl
.83 Andre Drummond Det 1.88 Det 1.05
.79 Ricky Rubio Min 2.77 Min 1.97
.70 Derrick Favors Uta 1.64 Uta .95
.69 Robert Covington Phl 2.46 Phl 1.77
.67 Otto Porter Was 1.74 Was 1.07
.63 Kyle Lowry Tor 2.26 Tor 1.63
.60 Evan Fournier Orl 1.46 Orl .86
.60 Wayne Ellington Brk 1.30 LAL .70
.59 Avery Bradley Bos 1.80 Bos 1.21
.58 Noah Vonleh Por 1.10 Cha .52
....
-.61 Khris Middleton Mil 1.22 Mil 1.84
-.62 Luc Mbah a Moute LAC .89 Phl 1.51
-.64 Jabari Parker Mil .87 Mil 1.51
-.66 Kris Humphries Was .23 Was .88
-.66 Klay Thompson GSW .61 GSW 1.27
-.72 Maurice Harkless Por .91 Orl 1.63
-.73 JaKarr Sampson Phl .43 Phl 1.16
-.76 Al-Farouq Aminu Por 1.02 Dal 1.77
-.86 Jonas Jerebko Bos .42 Bos 1.29
-.90 Tyler Johnson Mia 1.00 Mia 1.90
3s/G 3 ptrs/G 2016 3s 2015 3s
1.64 C.J. McCollum Por 2.53 Por .89
1.61 Jerryd Bayless Mil 2.09 Mil .48
1.42 Omri Casspi Sac 1.94 Sac .52
1.37 Will Barton Den 1.76 Den .40
1.14 Doug McDermott Chi 1.50 Chi .36
1.05 DeMarcus Cousins Sac 1.08 Sac .03
1.03 Al-Farouq Aminu Por 1.49 Dal .46
.97 Stephen Curry GSW 4.55 GSW 3.58
.95 Kent Bazemore Atl 1.59 Atl .64
.92 Jae Crowder Bos 1.67 Bos .74
....
-.71 Paul Pierce LAC .91 Was 1.62
-.71 Devin Harris Dal .54 Dal 1.25
-.73 Jeff Green Mem .51 Mem 1.24
-.80 Ben McLemore Sac .91 Sac 1.71
-.85 Kevin Martin Min 1.08 Min 1.92
-.85 Randy Foye Den 1.03 Den 1.88
-.90 Derrick Rose Chi .59 Chi 1.49
-.93 Danny Green SAS 1.43 SAS 2.36
-1.04 Chandler Parsons Dal .96 Dal 2.00
-1.10 Kyle Korver Atl 1.84 Atl 2.95
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:17 pm
by Mike G
Overall gainers in eW/484 * minutes
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.88 C.J. McCollum Por .538 22.2 3.9 4.2 1.44 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
1.60 Draymond Green GSW .555 16.3 9.5 8.5 2.02 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
1.48 Kawhi Leonard SAS .613 27.5 8.3 3.3 2.48 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
1.34 Nicolas Batum Cha .552 18.0 6.7 5.2 1.37 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
1.34 Will Barton Den .559 19.2 7.2 2.8 1.40 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
1.20 Kent Bazemore Atl .584 16.7 5.6 2.9 1.16 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
1.18 Ian Mahinmi Ind .578 13.0 10.3 2.2 1.32 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
1.13 Gary Harris Den .538 13.1 3.2 2.2 .49 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
1.06 Reggie Jackson Det .522 24.6 4.9 7.2 1.85 .505 18.2 5.1 7.2 1.39
1.06 Thaddeus Young Brk .531 17.9 10.4 1.5 1.44 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.04 Andre Drummond Det .488 19.8 17.1 1.0 2.20 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
1.03 Rajon Rondo Sac .496 11.9 6.5 11.6 1.51 Dal .444 10.4 6.5 9.9 1.08
1.03 Matt Dellavedova Cle .551 12.0 3.0 6.6 .84 .489 8.4 3.3 5.3 .25
.96 Jerami Grant Phl .499 12.2 6.1 1.4 .75 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
.96 DeMar DeRozan Tor .535 24.9 4.5 4.5 1.72 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
.92 Otto Porter Was .528 14.0 6.5 2.4 .96 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
.88 Kyle Lowry Tor .554 23.0 5.1 6.8 1.93 .519 19.5 5.1 7.2 1.60
.86 Zach LaVine Min .504 19.1 4.5 4.3 1.08 .508 14.1 4.1 4.7 .59
.84 Tony Parker SAS .574 20.0 3.5 7.8 1.69 .533 20.0 2.5 6.6 1.26
.84 Evan Fournier Orl .561 17.6 3.6 2.7 .96 .538 15.7 3.4 2.2 .59
A new leader, and with a sizable lead at that.
Losers:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-2.10 George Hill Ind .541 13.9 4.1 3.5 .84 .570 22.4 5.1 6.3 1.82
-1.50 Ty Lawson Hou .457 8.5 2.5 5.8 .36 .516 15.5 3.1 9.2 1.28
-1.28 James Harden Hou .569 27.1 5.7 6.0 2.00 .589 30.1 5.6 7.0 2.49
-1.25 Anthony Davis NOP .545 23.0 11.0 1.3 2.01 .579 27.3 10.7 2.1 2.58
-1.11 Joe Johnson Brk .441 11.1 4.3 3.4 .42 .518 15.6 5.0 3.6 .89
-1.09 Lou Williams LAL .544 16.3 2.9 2.6 .77 .552 23.2 2.7 2.9 1.36
-1.09 Jamal Crawford LAC .506 16.0 2.2 3.1 .64 .523 21.9 2.6 3.4 1.25
-1.08 Tayshaun Prince Min .469 4.9 3.4 1.4 -.20 .499 11.5 5.4 2.3 .55
-1.01 Marc Gasol Mem .530 18.2 8.2 3.9 1.48 .547 21.8 8.8 4.2 1.89
-.96 Kyle Korver Atl .558 11.5 4.2 2.5 .48 .691 16.8 4.6 3.0 .95
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.94 Derrick Rose Chi .431 16.5 3.4 5.6 .94 .487 22.3 3.8 6.3 1.46
-.93 Roy Hibbert LAL .509 9.2 7.8 1.9 .68 .494 15.7 10.1 1.6 1.20
-.91 Shabazz Muhammad Min .557 15.3 5.1 .6 .57 .545 20.8 6.5 1.6 1.31
-.89 Paul Pierce LAC .471 9.7 4.7 1.8 .29 .570 18.4 5.7 2.5 1.09
-.88 Klay Thompson GSW .583 23.3 4.1 2.8 1.40 .584 27.1 3.5 3.5 1.83
-.86 Kobe Bryant LAL .441 19.3 4.7 3.5 1.08 .469 22.3 6.0 5.1 1.56
-.84 Danny Green SAS .480 11.7 5.6 2.6 .68 .590 17.0 5.5 2.5 1.13
-.81 Ersan Ilyasova Det .530 15.3 6.6 1.5 .92 .548 19.8 7.7 1.4 1.35
-.79 Zach Randolph Mem .506 17.2 10.2 1.9 1.29 .529 20.1 12.1 2.5 1.75
-.78 Corey Brewer Hou .448 10.4 3.8 2.4 .34 .499 15.6 5.1 3.0 .88