Page 2 of 8
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:50 pm
by Mike G
kmedved wrote:If I wanted to find opposing SG stats vs. the Lakers for Kobe's career, is there a source for that other than 82 games? I can't find a way to spit that out via the play index.
You can find raw totals for G vs the Lakers for a given span of years.
http://bkref.com/tiny/esT5B
From 2000 thru 2013 seasons, some median rates by G and G-F who played the most minutes (top 100) vs the Lakers, and all (including Lakers) total:
Code: Select all
'00-13 2fg% 3fg% GmSc
all G .458 .357 9.5
vs LAL .460 .349 9.3
These are just #50-51 after sorting by stat column. Not much to see here.
After Fisher, there's a shocking lack of continuity (at G or G-F) alongside Kobe. Fish played not quite half of Kobe's minutes in the interval (19.4 k). Then it's Devean George 8.1, Vujacic 6.0, Farmar 5.4, Smush 5.2, Shaw 4.6, Blake 3.9, Shannon Brown 3.4 ... Not really a scary bunch either defensively or offensively.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:43 pm
by ampersand5
I find this all very confusing.
Why make ad-hoc analysis on who the best players of all time are? I feel as if we should define a criteria in advance and then objectively evaluate where players rank.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:14 pm
by Crow
Objective, systematic is fine if you are interested in all-time rankings. I am hardly at all. Hence a few passing comments and no current intention to go further.
Perhaps some want to and perhaps more will join in.
This is largely a subjective thread about top all-time players but fwiw:
http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4526
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:01 pm
by Crow
Warming to the topic a bit:
Daniel's list is worth looking at closer.
Here is another, simpler way to cut it:
http://bkref.com/tiny/U7ZkS
Who meets these criteria of 15,000 minutes and .150 career on ws/48 and plus 2 on career BPM but "does not belong" in top all-time group (besides certain very early-timers)? Who fails to meet these criteria but does "deserve"? Does anyone wanting objective standards want to suggest moving one or more of these cut lines? Have at it, if you want to try to improve the situation.
I have not compared my generated list to Daniel's yet. What are the most notable discrepancies?
Statman, do you have an "objective list? Do others? I think Mike G did. Besides that (link?) and the ring of honor project, are there other such lists in these archives? I haven't searched yet. Someone more interested is welcome to lead the way, prepare a summary table, calculate high, low and average ranks, biggest discrepancies, etc.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:13 pm
by Crow
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:07 pm
by Dr Positivity
Something I find interesting. Pau rates as the best player by WS and BPM on the 2009 and 2010 Lakers (and for the record in my stat VEDS also, which partly prompted this). Most who consider Kobe the undisputed best player on the Lakers 09 and 10 title teams write this off as a flaw of the WS stat by overemphasizing Pau's efficiency playing off Kobe. To be fair to Kobe RAPM also supports him as the star.
But is there actually any other examples of this happening? Where WS missed who the outright superstar of a title team is, if it was Kobe? Isiah Thomas rates below several Pistons in 89 and 90 but he didn't make an All-NBA team or finish top 10 in MVP in 89 and 90, so he's a weird example where he wasn't voted like a superstar by his peers at the time as he shouldn't have been for an inefficient 18/9 on a defense first team, but everyone seems to remember it like he was. Other than that when a player is THE guy on a title team by the media, WS falls in line almost without exception. If Suns had won the title Steve Nash vs Marion that would've been one of the best other examples.
Going by boxscore stats the idea that 09 and 10 Kobe has this big gap over Pau should be questioned. Part of it may also be their primes not lining up. Kobe was drafted 5 years before Pau and his highest year in WS and WS/48 is exactly 5 years before Pau's (2006 vs 2011). Possible 2006 and 2007 Kobe would've been easily the best player if on a team with 09 and 10 Pau by boxscore stats but missed it by a few years
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:52 pm
by Statman
Dr Positivity wrote:Something I find interesting. Pau rates as the best player by WS and BPM on the 2009 and 2010 Lakers (and for the record in my stat VEDS also, which partly prompted this). Most who consider Kobe the undisputed best player on the Lakers 09 and 10 title teams write this off as a flaw of the stat by overemphasizing Pau's efficiency playing off Kobe. To be fair to Kobe RAPM also supports him as the star.
But is there actually any other examples of this happening? Where WS missed who the outright superstar of a title team is, if it was Kobe? Isiah Thomas rates below several Pistons in 89 and 90 but he didn't make an All-NBA team or finish top 10 in MVP in 89 and 90, so he's a weird example where he wasn't voted like a superstar by his peers at the time as he shouldn't have been for an inefficient 18/9 on a defense first team, but everyone seems to remember it like he was. Other than that when a player is THE guy on a title team by the media, WS falls in line almost without exception. If Suns had won the title Steve Nash vs Marion that would've been one of the best other examples.
Going by boxscore stats the idea that Kobe has this big gap over Pau should be questioned.
In 2009, I have Kobe 5th in the NBA in WAR, 6th in WAR/48, Pau 6th in WAR & 8th WAR/48. The WAR/48 is 3 games difference (25.17 to 22.18) - theoretically Kobe wins 3 more games for his team than Pau if both played every minute of the season.
2010, I have Kobe 6th & Pau 7th in WAR - but their WAR/48 situation switches, Pau being 3 games ahead of Kobe (23.96 to 20.92) with a 6th for Pau & 10th place ranking for Kobe.
As for the Pistons - I have Isiah 17th in WAR in '89, Laimbeer 21st - while Laimbeer is 17th in WAR/48, Isiah 20th. Close. In '90 Isiah wins both, 22nd WAR, 25th WAR/48 to Laimbeer's 25th WAR & 30th WAR/48.
I see Kobe & Pau being about equal in importance to those Laker teams - but the general Laker fan would find that concept absurd.
2006 Suns - my work agrees with WS & BPM, Marion over Nash.
http://hoopsnerd.com/?page_id=460
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:04 pm
by Statman
Crow wrote:
Statman, do you have an "objective list? Do others? I think Mike G did. Besides that (link?) and the ring of honor project, are there other such lists in these archives? I haven't searched yet. Someone more interested is welcome to lead the way, prepare a summary table, calculate high, low and average ranks, biggest discrepancies, etc.
Here's what I have, regular season only career WAR rankings 1980-2015:
Code: Select all
+----------------------+--------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-------+--------+
| Player | LastYr | Yrs | G | M/g | P/g | R/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | TS% | WAR | WAR/48 |
+----------------------+--------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-------+--------+
| Karl Malone* | 2004 | 19 | 1476 | 37.2 | 25.0 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.563 | 336.6 | 23.79 |
| Michael Jordan* | 2003 | 15 | 1072 | 38.3 | 30.1 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.558 | 309.0 | 29.84 |
| Tim Duncan | 2015 | 18 | 1331 | 34.4 | 19.5 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.540 | 303.4 | 25.32 |
| Shaquille O'Neal | 2011 | 19 | 1207 | 34.7 | 23.7 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.570 | 299.4 | 27.62 |
| LeBron James | 2015 | 12 | 911 | 39.3 | 27.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0.569 | 283.9 | 31.01 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon* | 2002 | 18 | 1238 | 35.7 | 21.8 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.543 | 280.6 | 24.50 |
| Kevin Garnett | 2015 | 20 | 1424 | 35.0 | 18.2 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.538 | 280.1 | 21.58 |
| Kobe Bryant | 2015 | 19 | 1280 | 36.5 | 25.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 0.542 | 255.8 | 20.92 |
| David Robinson* | 2003 | 14 | 987 | 34.7 | 21.1 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.567 | 252.6 | 28.38 |
| John Stockton* | 2003 | 19 | 1504 | 31.8 | 13.1 | 2.7 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 0.595 | 248.7 | 20.23 |
| Charles Barkley* | 2000 | 16 | 1073 | 36.7 | 22.1 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.596 | 248.7 | 24.48 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 2015 | 17 | 1265 | 35.5 | 22.2 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.570 | 248.1 | 21.37 |
| Larry Bird* | 1992 | 13 | 897 | 38.4 | 24.3 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.557 | 223.1 | 25.66 |
| Magic Johnson* | 1996 | 13 | 906 | 36.7 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 0.595 | 218.9 | 26.08 |
| Patrick Ewing* | 2002 | 17 | 1183 | 34.3 | 21.0 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.542 | 214.9 | 20.58 |
| Jason Kidd | 2013 | 19 | 1391 | 36.0 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 0.500 | 203.5 | 15.59 |
| Paul Pierce | 2015 | 17 | 1250 | 35.5 | 20.7 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 0.557 | 194.3 | 16.78 |
| Gary Payton* | 2007 | 17 | 1335 | 35.3 | 16.3 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.521 | 193.6 | 15.86 |
| Moses Malone* | 1995 | 16 | 1106 | 33.5 | 20.9 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 0.552 | 187.9 | 20.10 |
| Clyde Drexler* | 1998 | 15 | 1086 | 34.6 | 20.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.537 | 178.4 | 18.85 |
| Chris Paul | 2015 | 10 | 699 | 36.2 | 18.7 | 4.4 | 9.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 0.567 | 176.8 | 27.10 |
| Allen Iverson | 2010 | 14 | 914 | 41.1 | 26.7 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 0.508 | 174.7 | 17.84 |
| Dwyane Wade | 2015 | 12 | 781 | 36.2 | 24.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.553 | 171.0 | 23.66 |
| Dominique Wilkins* | 1999 | 15 | 1074 | 35.5 | 24.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.527 | 164.8 | 17.05 |
| Vince Carter | 2015 | 17 | 1214 | 33.2 | 19.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.528 | 164.1 | 15.58 |
| Reggie Miller* | 2005 | 18 | 1389 | 34.3 | 18.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.602 | 163.5 | 13.31 |
| Ray Allen | 2014 | 18 | 1300 | 35.6 | 18.9 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.572 | 162.9 | 13.51 |
| Scottie Pippen* | 2004 | 17 | 1178 | 34.9 | 16.1 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.529 | 162.1 | 15.16 |
| Pau Gasol | 2015 | 14 | 983 | 35.5 | 18.3 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.556 | 155.8 | 17.41 |
| Steve Nash | 2014 | 18 | 1217 | 31.3 | 14.3 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 0.596 | 153.4 | 15.45 |
| Dwight Howard | 2015 | 11 | 809 | 35.6 | 18.1 | 12.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 0.578 | 152.5 | 20.59 |
| Robert Parish* | 1997 | 18 | 1376 | 29.0 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.570 | 149.7 | 14.85 |
| Tracy McGrady | 2012 | 15 | 938 | 32.7 | 19.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.510 | 147.0 | 18.48 |
| Chris Webber | 2008 | 15 | 831 | 37.1 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 0.506 | 145.6 | 18.11 |
| Shawn Marion | 2015 | 16 | 1163 | 34.5 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.537 | 145.2 | 14.20 |
| Grant Hill | 2013 | 18 | 1026 | 33.9 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.540 | 134.2 | 14.65 |
| Isiah Thomas* | 1994 | 13 | 979 | 36.3 | 19.2 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0.507 | 130.1 | 14.52 |
| Elton Brand | 2015 | 16 | 1041 | 33.3 | 16.1 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.538 | 129.9 | 14.67 |
| Kevin Durant | 2015 | 8 | 569 | 38.0 | 27.3 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 0.588 | 129.4 | 23.10 |
| Alonzo Mourning | 2008 | 15 | 838 | 31.0 | 17.1 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.566 | 129.2 | 18.89 |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* | 1989 | 10 | 787 | 32.6 | 20.6 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.596 | 128.5 | 19.81 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 2015 | 12 | 830 | 36.5 | 25.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0.536 | 127.7 | 16.45 |
| Tony Parker | 2015 | 14 | 1008 | 32.4 | 16.9 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 0.542 | 127.2 | 15.23 |
| Chauncey Billups | 2014 | 17 | 1043 | 31.6 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.567 | 126.1 | 14.64 |
| Larry Nance | 1994 | 13 | 920 | 33.4 | 17.1 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.576 | 123.5 | 15.93 |
| Kevin McHale* | 1993 | 13 | 971 | 31.0 | 17.9 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.593 | 123.4 | 16.23 |
| Alex English* | 1991 | 12 | 970 | 34.2 | 23.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.543 | 122.8 | 14.68 |
| Dikembe Mutombo | 2009 | 18 | 1196 | 30.8 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.557 | 122.6 | 12.80 |
| Tim Hardaway | 2003 | 13 | 867 | 35.3 | 17.7 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 0.523 | 122.5 | 15.29 |
| Rasheed Wallace | 2013 | 16 | 1109 | 32.7 | 14.4 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.530 | 119.1 | 12.72 |
+----------------------+--------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-------+--------+
Starting from 1980 & not having playoffs doesn't come that close to telling the whole picture.
Maybe in the next couple weeks I'll finally rectify that - get playoff results (adjusted postseason WAR to better represent the importance of advancing in the playoffs & winning championships) and prior to 1980 results as far back as I can muster fairly accurate player data.
Regular season only since 1980, 11 guys I'd have in front of him (looking at WAR & WAR/48): MJ, LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, K. Malone, D. Robinson, Hakeem, Magic, Bird, Barkley, & Garnett.
Dirk & Stockton around him, although it appears Dirk will pass him.
Chris Paul & Durant may pass him years from now.
Now, if we included adjusted WAR totals from playoffs - Kobe's ranking would look much better, I'd guess only Jordan & Duncan would for sure rank in front of him, & maybe Shaq. We obviously should include them - since most of it is about winning it all, & he did more than his fair share.
Now I want to drop everything & do it, I think I have all the templates worked up, just gotta pull the team playoff data & crunch everything. Maybe Monday/Tuesday I'll finally do it.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:55 pm
by permaximum
Hmm, that list looks better than 1980+ regular VORP and WS list.
Pierce is the most overrated one there. I will say Allen Iverson is the most underrated one but you may think I'm not objective on that, so I say Kareem is the most underrated one. Probably because it's 1980+.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:17 pm
by Mike G
Kobe and Karl Malone are all-time leaders in all-NBA 1st team awards, 11 each.
Kobe and Karl are enormously unpopular, so they are likely to be under-rated in anything but the most objective -- least subjective -- rankings.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:58 pm
by Mike G
Kobe and Pau with the Lakers, regular seasons and playoffs:
Code: Select all
.yr Lakers Min e484 eWins
2008 RS Kobe 3193 2.02 13.3
2008 RS Pau 915 2.00 3.8
2008 PO Kobe 864 1.94 3.46
2008 PO Pau 835 1.59 2.74
2009 RS Kobe 2965 2.36 14.5
2009 RS Pau 3004 1.90 11.8
2009 PO Kobe 919 2.37 4.51
2009 PO Pau 920 1.76 3.34
2010 RS Kobe 2834 1.96 11.5
2010 RS Pau 2403 1.96 9.7
2010 PO Kobe 923 2.36 4.49
2010 PO Pau 913 2.09 3.94
2011 RS Kobe 2783 2.43 14.0
2011 RS Pau 3041 2.04 12.8
2011 PO Kobe 354 1.58 1.15
2011 PO Pau 358 1.22 .90
2012 RS Kobe 2233 1.99 9.2
2012 RS Pau 2428 1.77 8.9
2012 PO Kobe 477 1.61 1.59
2012 PO Pau 443 1.12 1.02
Looks like Kobe is the Man in each season and postseason.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:12 am
by Statman
permaximum wrote:Hmm, that list looks better than 1980+ regular VORP and WS list.
Pierce is the most overrated one there. I will say Allen Iverson is the most underrated one but you may think I'm not objective on that, so I say Kareem is the most underrated one. Probably because it's 1980+.
1980-present regular season, my WAR has Iverson at #22, WS has him #54, VORP #36
My WAR has Kareem #41, WS has him #59, VORP #61
My WAR has Pierce #17, WS has him #15, VORP #20
I'll throw Isiah Thomas in here for fun, since all metrics undervalue him compared to where fans see him:
My WAR has him #37, WS #98, VORP #49
Mourning is interesting, my WAR has him #40, WS #74, VORP #131 (16 spots behind Nate McMillan, who played 5500 less career minutes)
I am possibly very biased because it is my metric - but I agree that the WAR list my metric generates "looks" better.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:16 am
by Statman
Mike G wrote:Kobe and Karl Malone are all-time leaders in all-NBA 1st team awards, 11 each.
Kobe and Karl are enormously unpopular, so they are likely to be under-rated in anything but the most objective -- least subjective -- rankings.
That last part, when it comes to Kobe, I'm not sure that's true with the general fan - TOTALLY agree about Karl Malone though. There appears to be millions of general fans who have Kobe practically on the level of MJ as the GOAT. Kobe fans are super fanatical & outspoken - at least on twitter.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:22 am
by Mike G
WS overvalues players for good teams who shoot high %. Undervalues productive players for weaker teams.
BPM overvalues players with substantial rebounds and assists. Undervalues those who excel at only 2 of the 3.
PER overvalues players for weak defensive teams, undervalues players with good defensive teams.
For the most part, the weaknesses of each seem to be at least partly covered by one of the others. That's why I usually show all 3 or roll them up together. Alone, there's just no accounting for some levels of weirdness.
Re: Kobe Bryant and All-Time Ranking of Players
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:16 pm
by DSMok1
For the record, I would not use Value over Replacement Player for an all-time ranking. I would use value over average, or perhaps even "value over playoff starter" which is +2.5 or so. In other words, I'd look more at players who produced a lot of value towards a championship.