Page 2 of 2

Re: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:58 am
by bchaikin
How the hell is CP getting all these votes? Come on guys, I know everyone here likes numbers. I get that, but would anyone seriously prefer CP3 over Steph or Harden or Russ on their team this season?

paul over westbrook in a heartbeat...

if you want to argue westbrook over paul because of the time paul has missed i get it...

but on a per minute basis simulation shows paul generates wins at the higher rate, 3-4 more wins on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis...

he shoots much better (52% on 2s, 40% on 3s) compared to westbrook (46% on 2s, 34% on 3s) with far fewer turnovers (3.1 vs 6.3 TO/40min), while passing for assists at a similar rate (11.7 vs 12.0 ast/40min)...

on a 40 min/g basis this season paul commits 10 0ptposs, westbrook 17 0ptposs. that's 7 more team possessions per 40 minutes westbrook's team does not score compared to with paul - a huge difference...

Re: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:22 am
by jgoldstein34
I've noticed that peoples dislike of the Clippers, and by extension CP, and how much they complain about calls leads many to forget how incredible CP is. Last year, when Curry was a human flamethrower, was really the only time in his entire career that CP wasn't arguably the best PG in the league in my view.

If we're talking about best PG for the next 5 years, I'd probably take Harden or Curry out of this group, but this year and almost any other year in the past decade, I'd take CP.

Re: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:09 am
by J.E.
The Clippers are +13 when Paul plays, -6 when he doesn't (per 100). Not really his fault that the Clippers are "just" 5th in the standings

While Westbrook and Harden obviously score and rebound more, Paul dominates them in some very important categories such as 3FG%, steals and turnovers

Would the Clippers be better with these two, compared to with Paul? I don't see that

Re: Best Point Guard of 2016-17?

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:18 am
by Mike G
some current numbers

Code: Select all

PG '1617   min   TS%   PER    WS  WS/48    BPM  VORP   RPM  WINS
Curry     2525  .623  24.3   11.8  .226    7.0   5.7   6.2  15.3
Harden    2775  .613  27.3   14.2  .245   10.0   8.4   4.9  14.5
Paul      1794  .611  25.9    9.6  .258    8.4   4.7   7.9  11.8
Westbrook 2645  .553  30.6   12.2  .222   15.3  11.5   6.4  15.9
CP does look like the best in some per-minute measures; but he's missed 1/4 of the games, and he goes 2 to 5 fewer mpg when he does play. OKC would likely not be looking at a postseason if RW had that much down time.
WINS are those shown at espn, via RPM.
The Clippers are +13 when Paul plays, -6 when he doesn't (per 100).
Powerful numbers, if they aren't skewed by garbage time.
He's missed enough whole games, we can corroborate by the old-old-fashioned way: team wins and losses with and without him.

Code: Select all

CP     G     W   L   W%    W/82
w.    57    39  18  .684   56.1
wo    21     8  13  .381   31.2
.    .73   18.2            24.9
With Paul, the Clips have played like a 56-26 team; without, they're a 31-51 team.
The difference is 25 wins in 82 games. Because he's only played 73% of their games -- and projecting him to now play 3 of their remaining 4 -- he'll have 'added' 18 wins to their season.
Except that Blake Griffin missed a number of those same games.