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Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 8:06 pm
by Mike G
Alternate views of game 1, Bos 108-83 Cle
Code: Select all
game 1 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Horford Bos 27 43.4 .686 28.1 .39 .20
Tatum Bos 37 18.4 .268 10.0 .21 .11
Brown Bos 28 29.5 .338 10.5 .20 .09
Morris Bos 35 21.8 .324 3.3 .24 .05
Baynes Bos 25 13.0 .212 7.9 .11 .06
Rozier Bos 35 11.2 .156 1.6 .11 .03
Thompson Cle 21 24.5 .177 -1.0 .08 .01
Love Cle 31 17.9 .065 -0.5 .04 .01
Green Cle 19 12.3 .122 -3.6 .05 -.01
Smart Bos 24 8.0 .025 -0.9 .01 .01
game 1 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Korver Cle 24 9.4 -.006 -1.6 .00 .00
Ojeleye Bos 16 -2.1 .036 -5.3 .01 -.01
Clarkson Cle 16 16.7 -.035 -8.2 -.01 -.02
Hill Cle 28 4.0 -.004 -6.3 .00 -.03
Hood Cle 19 10.2 -.049 -13.3 -.02 -.05
Smith Cle 29 -1.8 -.184 -12.4 -.11 -.08
LeBron Cle 36 5.5 -.304 -5.6 -.23 -.03
. min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Bos 240 18.1 .261 7.1 1.32 .55
. Cle 240 9.2 -.059 -6.2 -.29 -.25
Yesterday before this game, espn writers were wondering how the Celtics could possibly "upset" the Cavs.
In the season the Celts were 2.6 ppg better.
In the playoffs they were 2.5 better thru 2 rounds.
Celts with home court. How would it be an "upset" for them to win?
Now with one big loss, at least one espn writer is sure LeBron cannot win again in Cleveland, and he must move on.
It's still just one loss. The series is as close as it could possibly be after one game.
EDIT: Now after 2 games
Code: Select all
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Horford Bos 33 31.3 .423 16.8 .57 .30
Brown Bos 32 25.8 .272 8.9 .36 .17
Smart Bos 28 19.7 .219 8.0 .25 .14
LeBron Cle 38 22.8 -.009 9.8 -.01 .22
Tatum Bos 34 12.1 .141 4.2 .20 .11
Baynes Bos 21 18.2 .247 6.0 .22 .08
Morris Bos 35 13.6 .178 .7 .26 .05
Rozier Bos 35 11.4 .125 1.3 .18 .06
Monroe Bos 6 26.6 .467 8.2 .11 .03
Love Cle 33 19.9 .124 -2.4 .17 -.01
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Thompson Cle 25 16.4 .106 -3.9 .11 -.02
Ojeleye Bos 13 3.5 .135 -4.1 .07 -.01
Korver Cle 23 12.4 .056 -4.3 .05 -.03
Nance Cle 8 3.0 -.001 -8.2 .00 -.02
Clarkson Cle 8 16.7 -.048 -11.9 -.02 -.04
Hill Cle 31 3.6 -.010 -4.7 -.01 -.04
Hood Cle 15 7.5 -.069 -13.0 -.04 -.08
Green Cle 24 3.9 -.082 -8.1 -.08 -.07
Smith Cle 28 -6.0 -.218 -15.3 -.25 -.19
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Bos 240 17.6 .220 5.5 2.20 .90
. Cle 240 10.4 -.016 -4.7 -.16 -.33
Cavs have just 6 steals in 2 games. Only a handful of conference finalists in the last 33 years have averaged as few as 5
Code: Select all
yr tm G St/G
05 Mia 7 4.7
13 Ind 7 4.9
87 Bos 7 5.0
97 Mia 5 5.0
98 Uta 4 4.5
15 Cle 4 4.5
Those last 2 went to the Finals with 4-0 sweeps.
After just 8 turnovers in the Toronto series, LeBron has 13 in these 2 games.
Another comparison, Game Scores:
Code: Select all
Bos GmSc GmSc Cle
Horford 20.5 19.6 LeBron
Brown 17.6 14.7 Love
Smart 11.6 8.0 Thompson
Morris 10.7 6.2 Clarkson
Rozier 9.7 6.1 Korver
Tatum 9.6 2.9 Hood
Baynes 8.0 2.4 Hill
Monroe 3.0 2.4 Green
Ojeleye 1.5 .5 Nance
. . -2.0 Smith
Huge differential in the #6-7 slots.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 3:53 pm
by Mike G
Alternative views of Dubs-Rockets game 1
Code: Select all
game 1 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Harden Hou 35 40.7 .373 17.2 .27 .17
Thompson GS 42 23.3 .238 10.0 .21 .13
Curry GS 35 22.8 .245 10.1 .18 .11
Capela Hou 30 26.8 .238 10.3 .15 .09
Iguodala GS 28 14.6 .212 6.8 .12 .06
Durant GS 41 25.6 .196 .9 .17 .03
D Green GS 37 10.9 .094 5.3 .07 .07
Paul Hou 39 20.6 .130 2.5 .11 .04
Young GS 15 20.6 .255 4.2 .08 .02
Looney GS 25 6.7 .094 3.3 .05 .03
game 1 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
West GS 4 39.6 .585 15.5 .05 .02
Livingston GS 13 20.4 .171 2.5 .05 .01
Anderson Hou 5 -10.0 -.261 -17.4 -.03 -.02
G Green Hou 17 5.4 -.024 -9.7 -.01 -.03
Hilario Hou 5 -9.2 -.328 -24.1 -.03 -.03
Tucker Hou 34 .3 -.087 -4.4 -.06 -.02
Gordon Hou 34 8.0 -.087 -7.2 -.06 -.04
Ariza Hou 24 2.7 -.114 -11.4 -.06 -.06
L M a M Hou 17 -14.1 -.437 -20.9 -.15 -.08
totals GS 240 18.9 .195 6.0 .97 .48
. Hou 240 13.1 .024 -1.6 .12 .02
Series now 1-1
Code: Select all
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Harden Hou 34 28.6 .217 8.8 .31 .18
Tucker Hou 35 15.7 .184 7.1 .27 .16
Ariza Hou 30 20.2 .237 8.0 .29 .15
Gordon Hou 34 20.6 .181 2.8 .25 .08
Paul Hou 36 18.1 .137 3.7 .21 .10
Durant GS 38 26.5 .148 .6 .23 .05
Curry GS 35 16.1 .096 3.5 .14 .10
Capela Hou 31 14.9 .115 3.6 .15 .09
Thompson GS 40 15.0 .080 1.8 .13 .08
Young GS 16 14.6 .151 1.9 .10 .03
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
D Green GS 37 9.6 .007 2.1 .01 .07
Looney GS 18 11.5 .047 1.6 .04 .03
Iguodala GS 28 9.3 .032 .0 .04 .03
Livingston GS 16 15.5 .105 -0.7 .07 .01
West GS 5 21.0 .114 -0.3 .02 .00
G Green Hou 16 2.5 -.014 -7.4 -.01 -.04
Luc Hou 12 -11.6 -.399 -19.9 -.20 -.11
totals Hou 240 16.1 .122 2.7 1.22 .56
. GS 240 16.1 .086 1.9 .86 .46
Given that PER rates them even, let's look at Game Scores:
Code: Select all
GSW GmSc GmSc Hou
Durant 23.2 22.8 Harden
Thompson 13.7 15.6 Gordon
Curry 13.6 15.1 Paul
D Green 8.4 12.4 Ariza
Iguodala 5.9 11.6 Tucker
Livingston 5.6 9.5 Capela
Young 5.3 1.2 G Green
Looney 4.5 -2.0 Luc
West 2.1
totals 82.3 86.2
Rockets are better at 2 thru 6, but nothing after that.
Adding in gigantic garbage-time numbers by Zaza and Q, they're probably even.
Just among the rotation players, the Rockets have the 3 best rebounders thus far -- Capela, Harden, Paul -- while the Dubs have the 4 worst : Durant, Thompson, Young, West.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 12:13 pm
by Mike G
After 3 games in the East:
Code: Select all
gm 1-3 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 38 28.0 .206 13.7 .49 .44
Horford Bos 32 25.3 .306 11.6 .60 .32
Brown Bos 28 20.1 .154 3.6 .27 .12
Baynes Bos 22 17.1 .171 4.5 .23 .11
Tatum Bos 33 14.1 .114 1.8 .24 .10
Korver Cle 22 16.8 .164 1.8 .22 .06
Love Cle 32 17.9 .123 -0.2 .25 .04
Smart Bos 27 14.3 .079 2.6 .13 .09
Nance Cle 12 17.0 .200 7.6 .15 .09
Thompson Cle 24 18.7 .187 -1.5 .28 .01
gm 1-3 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Morris Bos 31 11.6 .099 -2.5 .19 -.01
Rozier Bos 33 11.1 .056 -1.0 .11 .02
Monroe Bos 9 21.8 .241 -1.0 .14 .01
Hill Cle 30 6.4 .048 -1.9 .09 .00
Ojeleye Bos 15 1.7 .010 -4.1 .01 -.02
Green Cle 22 6.3 .020 -4.2 .03 -.04
Clarkson Cle 11 10.7 -.002 -6.9 .00 -.04
Hood Cle 10 6.9 -.009 -10.3 -.01 -.06
Smith Cle 27 -2.2 -.103 -9.9 -.18 -.16
. Bos 240 14.6 .121 1.6 1.81 .65
totals Cle 240 13.2 .085 -0.4 1.27 .29
PER doesn't think much of this series -- like 2 teams who shouldn't be here. It's not used in the ranking, just there for reference.
Players are ranked by WS/2 + vorp
EDIT 5-22
Series now tied at 2-2, both teams with 101 ppg
Code: Select all
gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 39 28.8 .210 11.9 .68 .53
Horford Bos 34 21.0 .232 6.9 .66 .30
Korver Cle 23 18.8 .225 3.6 .42 .13
Brown Bos 31 19.4 .142 2.5 .36 .14
Nance Cle 12 25.2 .320 11.5 .31 .16
Baynes Bos 21 19.7 .211 4.2 .36 .13
Thompson Cle 28 18.8 .183 .1 .42 .06
Rozier Bos 34 13.9 .090 1.9 .26 .13
Hill Cle 32 9.9 .101 .6 .27 .08
Tatum Bos 35 11.9 .078 -1.1 .23 .03
gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Smart Bos 28 11.3 .020 .8 .05 .08
Morris Bos 30 10.7 .077 -2.6 .19 -.02
Monroe Bos 7 21.5 .230 -1.7 .13 .00
Love Cle 31 12.8 .041 -2.3 .11 -.01
Ojeleye Bos 14 2.7 .024 -4.5 .03 -.03
Hood Cle 8 6.9 .018 -9.6 .01 -.06
Clarkson Cle 10 8.1 -.013 -8.2 -.01 -.06
Green Cle 22 3.1 -.025 -4.8 -.04 -.06
Smith Cle 29 .3 -.055 -7.0 -.13 -.14
gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Cle 240 13.8 .100 .4 1.99 .58
. Bos 240 14.1 .107 .8 2.14 .67
Not sure how Bos > Cle in all these stats, when Cavs have one point more than Celts?
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:03 am
by Mike G
GSW 2-1 Hou
Code: Select all
gm 1-3 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Durant GS 37 28.3 .245 5.0 .57 .20
Curry GS 34 22.6 .197 6.8 .42 .23
Harden Hou 34 26.0 .139 7.1 .29 .23
D Green GS 37 12.6 .109 6.2 .25 .23
Iguodala GS 27 14.8 .158 5.8 .27 .16
Thompson GS 38 13.7 .084 2.8 .20 .14
Tucker Hou 34 12.0 .085 2.0 .18 .10
Looney GS 17 13.5 .146 5.9 .16 .10
Capela Hou 28 19.0 .116 1.7 .20 .08
Young GS 17 13.6 .175 3.2 .18 .07
gm 1-3 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Ariza Hou 32 13.3 .092 .6 .18 .06
Paul Hou 35 15.4 .044 .7 .10 .07
L'ston GS 16 16.3 .126 1.4 .13 .04
Gordon Hou 33 14.1 .032 -2.2 .07 .00
G Green Hou 17 3.2 -.082 -10.6 -.09 -.11
Luc Hou 13 -5.9 -.269 -16.0 -.22 -.14
totals Hou 240 13.5 .037 -1.0 .55 .19
. GS 240 18.6 .168 5.5 2.51 1.34
These rates are just current player rates minus previous rates, over round 3 minutes.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... s_advanced
Subtracting the gm 1+2 totals from these, we see Hou got -.67 Win Shares for last night's appearance, and -.37 VORP.
Also -.60 pythagorean wins and -.05 eWins.
EDIT -- May 23, series tied 2-2, GS with 7.25 ppg advantage
Code: Select all
gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Harden Hou 36 26.0 .163 8.0 .49 .36
Durant GS 39 25.6 .220 4.2 .70 .24
D Green GS 39 14.0 .115 7.2 .37 .36
Curry GS 36 20.7 .162 5.5 .47 .27
Tucker Hou 37 12.0 .117 3.3 .35 .20
Iguodala GS 21 15.7 .167 6.6 .28 .18
Paul Hou 37 16.5 .080 2.0 .24 .14
Ariza Hou 34 11.9 .102 1.6 .29 .12
Looney GS 20 12.2 .136 5.7 .22 .15
Thompson GS 38 11.2 .066 1.3 .21 .13
gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Capela Hou 27 18.4 .124 .4 .28 .06
Young GS 16 8.9 .103 -0.2 .13 .03
Bell GS 9 11.5 .127 3.2 .09 .04
Livingston GS 16 11.2 .029 -1.4 .04 .01
Gordon Hou 33 12.3 .023 -3.2 .06 -.04
G Green Hou 16 4.8 -.051 -8.9 -.07 -.11
Luc Hou 10 -5.5 -.266 -15.7 -.22 -.14
totals GS 240 17.0 .144 4.7 2.89 1.61
totals Hou 240 13.9 .064 .1 1.28 .50
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 4:06 pm
by Mike G
Converting PER and BPM roughly to "wins", xyz is the avg of those, WS, and eWins.
After 4 games, both series tied, the best conference finalists:
Code: Select all
xyz gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
.82 LeBron Cle 39 28.8 .210 11.9 2.88
.66 Durant GSW 39 25.6 .220 4.2 2.30
.62 Harden Hou 36 26.0 .163 8.0 2.29
.53 Horford Bos 34 21.0 .232 6.9 1.61
.52 Curry GSW 36 20.7 .162 5.5 2.16
.42 Green GSW 39 14.0 .115 7.2 1.12
.38 Brown Bos 31 19.4 .142 2.5 1.78
.34 Paul Hou 37 16.5 .080 2.0 1.30
.31 Thompson Cle 28 18.8 .183 .1 1.29
.30 Korver Cle 23 18.8 .225 3.6 1.33
xyz gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
.29 Rozier Bos 34 13.9 .090 1.9 1.14
.28 Tucker Hou 37 12.0 .117 3.3 .51
.27 Baynes Bos 21 19.7 .211 4.2 1.19
.27 Capela Hou 27 18.4 .124 .4 1.30
.23 Nance Cle 12 25.2 .320 11.5 1.63
.23 Iguodala GSW 21 15.7 .167 6.6 .76
.21 Thompson GSW 38 11.2 .066 1.3 .41
.21 Ariza Hou 34 11.9 .102 1.6 .20
.20 Love Cle 31 12.8 .041 -2.3 1.48
.20 Tatum Bos 35 11.9 .078 -1.1 .65
xyz gm 1-4 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480
.18 Hill Cle 32 9.9 .101 .6 .26
.16 Looney GSW 20 12.2 .136 5.7 .17
.15 Morris Bos 30 10.7 .077 -2.6 .75
.14 Smart Bos 28 11.3 .020 .8 .69
.12 Gordon Hou 33 12.3 .023 -3.2 .47
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:24 am
by Mike G
Down 3-2, the Dubs are still up by 5 ppg in the series.
Code: Select all
gm 1-5 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Curry GS 37 21.2 .167 6.2 .63 .37
Durant GS 39 24.2 .200 3.0 .80 .24
D Green GS 40 12.6 .091 5.8 .37 .38
Paul Hou 37 18.1 .115 4.0 .44 .28
Harden Hou 37 21.8 .097 4.4 .37 .29
Tucker Hou 38 10.7 .103 2.4 .41 .21
Looney GS 20 12.8 .151 5.8 .31 .19
Ariza Hou 36 10.5 .094 1.9 .34 .17
Capela Hou 27 20.3 .163 1.5 .45 .12
Iguodala GS 16 16.2 .162 7.1 .28 .19
gm 1-5 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Thompson GS 39 11.8 .068 1.5 .27 .17
Gordon Hou 34 15.3 .087 -0.8 .30 .05
Cook GS 4 37.6 .375 13.7 .15 .08
Bell GS 10 10.3 .121 2.4 .12 .05
Young GS 13 8.9 .101 -0.4 .13 .03
West GS 4 16.3 .177 4.2 .08 .03
Livingston GS 16 10.0 .028 -1.7 .05 .01
Anderson Hou 3 -1.7 -.150 -8.0 -.04 -.02
Johnson Hou 2 -3.1 -.301 -17.9 -.07 -.05
G Green Hou 16 7.4 -.002 -6.4 .00 -.09
Luc MM Hou 8 -5.5 -.259 -15.3 -.21 -.13
gm 1-5 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Hou 240 14.2 .078 .7 1.96 .81
totals GS 240 16.3 .133 4.1 3.32 1.84
EDIT -- out of order, sorry about that
Bos 3, Cle 2
Code: Select all
gm 1-5 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 39 29.8 .230 12.5 .93 .70
Horford Bos 34 21.0 .227 6.8 .81 .38
Baynes Bos 22 19.0 .205 3.9 .48 .16
Brown Bos 32 18.8 .136 2.3 .45 .17
Rozier Bos 34 14.8 .105 2.5 .38 .19
Nance Cle 13 23.6 .289 9.8 .38 .19
Korver Cle 22 18.2 .213 3.4 .48 .15
Thompson Cle 27 18.8 .185 .3 .53 .08
Hill Cle 32 10.3 .102 .4 .34 .10
Tatum Bos 36 12.8 .085 -0.7 .32 .06
gm 1-5 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Smart Bos 27 11.2 .020 .8 .06 .09
Monroe Bos 5 21.5 .230 -1.7 .13 .00
Morris Bos 31 10.4 .065 -3.1 .21 -.04
Love Cle 31 13.0 .045 -2.4 .14 -.02
Ojeleye Bos 11 2.7 .024 -4.5 .03 -.03
Yabusele Bos 4 .2 -.003 -7.2 .00 -.03
Green Cle 22 4.9 -.002 -3.9 -.01 -.05
Hood Cle 7 6.7 .013 -9.4 .01 -.06
Clarkson Cle 11 7.0 -.035 -8.2 -.04 -.08
Smith Cle 28 1.7 -.038 -5.9 -.11 -.14
gm 1-5 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Cle 240 14.2 .104 .6 2.59 .79
totals Bos 240 14.4 .109 .9 2.72 .88
East series tied 3-3
Code: Select all
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 40 29.7 .218 12.1 1.09 .85
Horford Bos 35 17.7 .183 4.6 .80 .34
Nance Cle 14 27.1 .312 12.0 .55 .30
Rozier Bos 35 16.4 .128 3.5 .56 .29
Tatum Bos 36 14.6 .113 1.6 .51 .20
Brown Bos 32 18.7 .135 1.3 .54 .16
Hill Cle 32 12.5 .122 .7 .49 .13
Baynes Bos 22 14.8 .152 2.3 .41 .14
Smart Bos 28 14.8 .089 2.4 .31 .19
Korver Cle 23 14.9 .162 1.0 .46 .10
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Thompson Cle 27 14.3 .130 -1.1 .43 .04
Monroe Bos 6 19.0 .167 -2.6 .11 .00
Love Cle 27 13.0 .042 -3.4 .14 -.06
Morris Bos 31 8.8 .039 -3.6 .15 -.07
Hood Cle 6 13.4 .111 -8.1 .08 -.05
Ojeleye Bos 9 3.1 .032 -5.3 .04 -.05
Green Cle 24 6.7 .017 -4.1 .05 -.07
Clarkson Cle 11 7.8 -.040 -10.0 -.06 -.14
Smith Cle 30 -0.9 -.066 -7.3 -.25 -.24
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Cle 240 14.2 .101 .3 3.02 .82
totals Bos 240 14.3 .109 1.0 3.29 1.08
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Mon May 28, 2018 12:27 pm
by Mike G
Final ECF summary rankings (by WS/2 + vorp)
Code: Select all
. ECF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 288 29.3 .218 12.3 1.31 1.03
Horford Bos 249 18.1 .190 4.5 .98 .40
Nance Cle 93 24.7 .296 10.5 .57 .29
Tatum Bos 260 14.8 .111 1.3 .60 .21
Rozier Bos 248 13.6 .086 2.3 .44 .27
Baynes Bos 149 14.9 .164 2.1 .51 .15
Thompson Cle 195 14.9 .155 -0.5 .63 .07
Brown Bos 231 16.4 .102 .2 .49 .13
Hill Cle 231 11.0 .104 -0.1 .50 .11
Korver Cle 153 12.9 .149 .9 .47 .11
. ECF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Smart Bos 199 13.5 .068 1.8 .28 .19
Green Cle 185 9.1 .057 -2.7 .22 -.03
Morris Bos 219 10.1 .057 -3.0 .26 -.05
Love Cle 160 13.7 .055 -2.8 .18 -.03
Monroe Bos 33 19.3 .167 -2.3 .11 -.00
Osman Cle 20 8.5 .042 -2.8 .02 -.00
Hood Cle 33 14.0 .129 -8.1 .09 -.05
Calderon Cle 13 5.3 .099 -8.1 .03 -.02
Zizic Cle 10 15.4 -.010 -6.5 -.00 -.01
Ojeleye Bos 56 3.5 .036 -5.7 .04 -.05
. ECF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Yabusele Bos 21 -3.1 -.078 -8.9 -.03 -.04
Nader Bos 16 -7.6 -.364 -19.8 -.12 -.07
Clarkson Cle 77 5.7 -.059 -10.6 -.10 -.16
Smith Cle 222 1.3 -.031 -5.4 -.14 -.19
totals Bos 1680 13.9 .102 .7 3.57 1.14
totals Cle 1680 14.0 .108 1.4 3.79 1.44
And going into tonight's game 7 out West:
Code: Select all
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Curry GS 37 21.8 .186 7.2 .86 .51
D Green GS 39 14.0 .126 7.8 .61 .57
Durant GS 38 23.3 .209 2.8 .99 .27
Thompson GS 39 15.9 .139 4.7 .67 .39
Harden Hou 37 21.7 .082 5.0 .38 .39
Looney GS 20 13.7 .171 6.8 .42 .26
Paul Hou 31 18.1 .104 3.4 .39 .25
Tucker Hou 38 9.9 .085 1.5 .40 .20
Iguodala GS 14 16.1 .188 8.0 .32 .20
Capela Hou 27 18.2 .124 .0 .42 .08
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Ariza Hou 36 9.0 .048 -0.3 .22 .09
Cook GS 4 32.8 .358 12.2 .18 .09
Bell GS 12 9.5 .105 1.9 .15 .07
Young GS 13 8.5 .114 .0 .19 .04
Gordon Hou 34 14.3 .053 -1.9 .22 .00
West GS 5 16.1 .200 4.6 .11 .04
Livingston GS 16 9.0 .038 -1.6 .08 .01
G Green Hou 18 8.3 .001 -5.8 .00 -.10
Luc Hou 9 -3.9 -.230 -12.7 -.26 -.14
gm 1-6 tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals Hou 240 13.2 .051 -.3 1.54 .61
totals GSW 240 16.9 .157 5.1 4.70 2.55
EDIT 5-29
WCF summaries
Code: Select all
WCF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Curry GS 268 22.2 .190 8.3 1.05 .69
Durant GS 274 24.5 .232 4.0 1.31 .41
D Green GS 279 13.1 .108 6.8 .62 .61
Thompson GS 266 16.5 .143 4.7 .79 .45
Harden Hou 267 22.1 .080 5.4 .44 .50
Tucker Hou 271 11.8 .099 2.6 .55 .31
Looney GS 135 13.0 .154 5.1 .43 .24
Capela Hou 200 20.0 .148 1.0 .61 .15
Paul Hou 184 18.7 .104 3.4 .39 .25
Iguodala GS 82 16.5 .193 7.5 .33 .20
WCF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Bell GS 85 9.8 .093 3.0 .16 .11
Gordon Hou 243 15.0 .060 -1.5 .30 .03
Cook GS 26 31.4 .356 10.4 .19 .08
Young GS 96 8.3 .120 .2 .24 .05
West GS 27 16.6 .211 4.6 .12 .04
Livingston GS 120 8.9 .058 -1.6 .14 .01
Ariza Hou 259 6.5 -.002 -1.8 -.01 .01
Anderson Hou 28 -4.0 -.143 -9.2 -.08 -.05
Johnson Hou 25 -2.3 -.246 -15.8 -.13 -.09
G Green Hou 127 6.8 -.020 -7.1 -.05 -.16
Luc Hou 54 -3.9 -.233 -13.0 -.26 -.15
WCF tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals GS 1680 17.0 .158 5.1 5.53 2.98
totals Hou 1680 13.4 .050 -0.2 1.75 .77
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 4:08 pm
by Nathan
Maybe this should be its own thread, but I was wondering...has anyone made statistical plus/minus based *only* on playoffs data? Obviously the coefficients would have higher uncertainty, but it would be very interesting to see if they change in any significant way from their regular season values.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 5:03 pm
by Mike G
Playoff BPM is I think adjusted for the regular season BPM of the opponent.
Are you saying it could be re-calibrated to include playoff numbers? Seems that would have a lot of echoes.
Or are you saying it could be nothing but playoff data for opponent strength? That would make every team in round one sum to zero (or other designated avg). Eliminated teams would then be continually readjusted til the playoffs end.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:53 pm
by Nathan
Mike G wrote:Playoff BPM is I think adjusted for the regular season BPM of the opponent.
Are you saying it could be re-calibrated to include playoff numbers? Seems that would have a lot of echoes.
Or are you saying it could be nothing but playoff data for opponent strength? That would make every team in round one sum to zero (or other designated avg). Eliminated teams would then be continually readjusted til the playoffs end.
I'm saying re-calculate the BPM formula using the same methodology but only playoff box score and play-by-play data for the regression. See what changes (e.g. are steals more or less valuable in the postseason? assists? blocks? threes?).
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 11:51 pm
by Mike G
Aha. I'm guessing there's more variation from one playoff series to another, than there is from RS to PS overall.
I calculate each series separately. In Hou-Min, steals were not as heavily weighted as normal; turnovers, blocks, and fouls were extra heavy. In Hou-Uta, these were all normal. In Hou-GS, steals and blocks were a bit light, while TO and PF again gained weight.
Letting these weights vary, within limits, eWins matches up with point-differential. And in fact, all Stl / Blk / TO / PF are not equal on the scoreboard.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Wed May 30, 2018 12:01 am
by Nathan
Mike G wrote:Aha. I'm guessing there's more variation from one playoff series to another, than there is from RS to PS overall.
I calculate each series separately. In Hou-Min, steals were not as heavily weighted as normal; turnovers, blocks, and fouls were extra heavy. In Hou-Uta, these were all normal. In Hou-GS, steals and blocks were a bit light, while TO and PF again gained weight.
Letting these weights vary, within limits, eWins matches up with point-differential. And in fact, all Stl / Blk / TO / PF are not equal on the scoreboard.
Very cool! Good to know. I think I agree with your intuition that there's more variation from series to series than from RS to PO. Just wondered if there's anything to the "playoffs are a totally different game!" line that talking heads repeat without fail every year.
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Wed May 30, 2018 9:56 am
by Mike G
Cavs going into the Finals. Showing round 1-3 rates, per 36 minutes, adjusted to fit each series.
Code: Select all
George Hill
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.16 12 .649 18.7 4.9 3.6 .4 3.2 .4 .93
.08 32 .612 12.1 2.4 3.3 .0 1.3 .6 .30
.17 33 .545 11.8 2.6 1.9 1.0 .9 .7 .35
J.R. Smith
-.07 33 .441 8.3 3.8 1.3 1.3 1.8 .3 -.15
.29 31 .862 19.3 2.4 1.9 1.8 .0 .0 1.15
-.16 32 .374 5.7 3.4 .9 .3 .9 .4 -.35
Jeff Green
.06 21 .443 7.7 3.8 2.7 .7 .7 .9 .19
.22 24 .653 18.2 3.6 2.3 .7 .4 1.4 1.16
.14 26 .560 13.1 4.9 1.0 .2 2.2 1.2 .35
Jordan Clarkson
-.09 18 .369 6.0 2.8 2.2 .2 1.3 .2 -.34
-.01 14 .364 7.8 4.5 2.1 2.2 3.2 .0 -.07
.04 11 .379 11.5 5.2 .0 .4 .5 .5 .28
Kevin Love
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.36 33 .460 11.7 11.8 1.3 .6 2.7 .3 .75
.58 35 .569 21.3 14.4 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.1 2.07
.52 23 .475 17.7 14.8 3.0 .7 3.5 .2 1.57
Kyle Korver
.18 23 .586 13.5 4.8 1.5 .9 1.4 .5 .55
.29 32 .784 20.7 3.4 1.9 .9 .7 .0 1.13
.24 22 .638 16.9 3.9 .6 .5 1.0 1.4 .74
Larry Nance
.15 20 .621 9.1 8.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 .9 .53
.07 2 1.00 36.2 14.7 .0 .0 .0 6.5 4.04
.33 13 .784 16.0 10.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 2.3 1.72
LeBron James
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
2.16 41 .639 35.0 10.2 6.6 1.3 3.4 .9 3.59
1.11 42 .569 29.4 8.2 9.4 1.5 2.0 .9 3.27
1.82 41 .598 36.7 8.5 6.9 1.0 5.4 1.1 3.04
Rodney Hood
-.04 19 .512 10.5 1.9 1.9 .7 2.0 .2 -.15
-.04 10 .111 .5 6.6 3.1 .0 1.9 .8 -.53
.06 5 .514 19.5 2.2 3.7 .0 1.1 .0 .92
Tristan Thompson
.08 8 .692 11.9 10.0 1.8 .6 2.9 .6 .70
.09 17 .677 10.5 10.2 .9 .0 .0 .0 .67
.39 28 .627 12.2 11.4 1.0 .2 1.0 .8 .95
mpg are minutes divided by team games, so zero = 0
And the Dubs:
Code: Select all
Andre Iguodala
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.24 27 .543 11.1 7.3 4.6 .8 1.4 .5 .86
.25 28 .557 9.9 6.1 3.6 2.6 .8 .5 .84
.14 12 .684 14.2 6.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 .5 .84
David West
.23 16 .667 14.7 9.1 3.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.39
.13 8 .571 13.7 5.3 8.5 1.6 2.5 3.3 1.60
.04 4 .571 10.5 5.1 6.9 .0 1.3 .0 .62
Draymond Green
.55 38 .460 10.6 11.3 7.4 1.4 2.6 .9 1.40
.72 37 .592 15.3 10.7 7.9 2.4 3.7 1.6 1.87
.65 40 .479 7.2 11.3 7.1 1.8 3.6 1.6 1.12
Jordan Bell
.00 2 .375 6.9 5.9 2.7 .0 .0 .0 .19
.05 5 .300 2.7 7.8 5.7 2.8 .0 2.8 1.00
.05 12 .462 4.4 10.7 2.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 .31
Kevin Durant
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.96 37 .595 32.3 8.8 4.8 .6 3.6 .8 2.47
.86 36 .577 28.3 6.9 3.9 1.4 2.1 1.2 2.28
1.27 39 .584 30.5 5.5 2.8 .3 1.8 .8 2.23
Kevon Looney
.07 20 .449 6.9 6.7 2.6 1.4 1.4 1.0 .32
.10 23 .636 8.8 8.3 1.5 1.2 .6 .3 .44
.12 19 .464 6.3 9.5 1.2 1.3 .6 1.1 .44
Klay Thompson
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.53 39 .631 24.9 2.9 2.5 .4 1.5 .2 1.30
.30 37 .474 16.6 5.9 1.4 .2 1.2 .4 .78
.60 38 .613 20.4 3.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 .3 1.08
Nick Young
-.04 6 .375 5.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.72
-.02 8 .440 7.6 3.2 .7 .9 .9 .0 -.22
.00 14 .638 11.4 2.2 1.2 .0 .4 .0 -.02
Quinn Cook
.08 17 .518 11.3 4.8 1.8 .4 .8 .7 .43
.07 12 .484 15.0 4.8 1.8 .6 1.2 .0 .59
.12 4 .741 31.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.3 .0 2.21
Shaun Livingston
.19 19 .573 18.3 5.0 2.6 1.0 2.2 .0 .94
.01 16 .448 9.1 2.3 4.0 .0 1.3 .4 .07
.02 17 .521 10.3 4.7 1.6 .8 1.7 .0 .07
Stephen Curry
eW mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.55 25 .641 31.8 5.7 3.3 2.3 4.5 .6 2.10
1.31 38 .576 25.6 6.5 6.3 1.6 2.4 .8 2.35
Curry's lines are round 2 and 3
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 1:58 am
by Mike G
eWins leaders thru the conference finals
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
5.09 LeBron James Cle 41 .607 34.4 9.1 7.3 1.2 3.9 1.0 3.31
3.09 Kevin Durant GSW 38 .585 30.4 6.9 3.7 .7 2.4 .9 2.31
3.03 James Harden Hou 37 .538 29.1 5.4 6.5 2.3 4.2 .7 2.34
2.23 Al Horford Bos 36 .619 18.4 9.2 3.3 1.0 1.9 1.1 1.58
2.20 Chris Paul Hou 30 .559 23.6 6.5 5.9 2.1 2.2 .3 2.04
2.16 Clint Capela Hou 31 .630 17.0 14.3 1.5 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.00
2.04 Terry Rozier Bos 37 .532 16.8 5.7 5.5 1.3 1.3 .3 1.42
1.92 Draymond Green GSW 38 .511 10.5 11.1 7.4 1.8 3.4 1.4 1.41
1.86 Stephen Curry GSW 23 .597 27.5 6.2 5.3 1.9 3.1 .7 2.27
1.72 Anthony Davis NOP 40 .574 26.9 11.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.31
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.67 Jayson Tatum Bos 36 .567 20.4 4.9 2.7 1.2 2.4 .5 1.18
1.51 Jaylen Brown Bos 31 .557 21.2 5.9 1.5 .9 1.5 .6 1.25
1.46 Kevin Love Cle 29 .498 16.0 13.4 1.9 .8 2.7 .5 1.34
1.43 Klay Thompson GSW 38 .570 20.7 4.0 1.9 .8 1.5 .3 1.06
1.41 Victor Oladipo Ind 37 .539 24.2 9.2 7.1 2.4 3.7 .4 2.59
1.33 Giannis A Mil 40 .606 25.5 9.2 5.3 1.3 2.3 .8 2.28
1.31 Donovan Mitchell Uta 37 .507 23.2 5.8 3.9 1.4 3.0 .4 1.53
1.17 Ben Simmons Phl 37 .529 14.8 9.2 7.4 1.7 4.7 .8 1.54
1.12 J Valanciunas Tor 24 .589 21.6 17.9 1.7 .6 2.9 2.2 2.23
1.10 Joel Embiid Phl 28 .507 20.3 12.9 3.2 .9 4.2 2.0 1.93
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.09 Kyle Lowry Tor 36 .649 18.8 4.9 8.4 1.5 3.2 .0 1.47
1.09 R Westbrook OKC 39 .486 26.4 10.6 6.5 1.4 4.9 .0 2.23
1.08 Rudy Gobert Uta 35 .642 15.8 11.4 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.36
1.06 Jrue Holiday NOP 39 .576 22.0 5.0 4.7 1.1 2.5 .5 1.46
1.02 Dario Saric Phl 33 .538 17.6 8.0 3.8 1.1 1.8 .5 1.50
1.01 John Wall Was 39 .518 22.1 5.8 11.1 2.2 4.6 1.2 2.07
1.00 Khris Middleton Mil 39 .712 27.6 5.0 2.7 .8 2.2 .6 1.74
.86 DeMar DeRozan Tor 35 .503 20.9 4.2 4.3 .5 2.5 .6 1.17
.81 Aron Baynes Bos 20 .582 11.3 11.8 1.7 .4 .8 .9 1.00
.78 Nikola Mirotic NOP 36 .605 15.6 9.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.17
Re: 2018 Playoff summaries and notes.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:11 am
by Mike G
LeBron's RS and PO BPM
Code: Select all
yr RS POmin PO
2006 9.3 604 7.3
2007 7.4 893 8.5
2008 11.2 552 11.3
2009 13.0 580 18.2
2010 12.5 460 11.2
Cle1 10.7 3089 11.0
2011 8.6 922 7.8
2012 11.0 983 11.0
2013 11.6 960 10.2
2014 8.9 763 10.4
.Mia 10.2 3628 9.8
2015 7.4 844 11.0
2016 9.1 822 13.1
2017 8.4 744 11.5
2018 9.6 743 14.7
Cle2 8.9 3153 12.5
Do the oddsmakers give Cle another 3-5 points in consideration of this?
LeBron's postseason uptick of +5.1 in BPM is right up there with +5.2 in 2009.