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Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
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2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=9704

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Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:42 pm
by Crow
Based on this series to date, there are several soon to be Bucks free agents that are not contributing as much impact as expected or are doing worse or far worse than that..

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 5:50 am
by Crow
More negative raw plus minus on the court for Middleton and Mirotic. Bucks haven't solved those issues. In bottom half for team for game 5.

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:51 am
by Mike G
Raptors 3, Bucks 2
avg score 109.2 - 109.2
pyth wins and eWins 2.50 - 2.50

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e500
.89   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   41  .576   28.4   6.8   3.2   2.0   2.4   .7   2.15
.78   Antetokounmpo  Mil   38  .513   21.5  12.1   5.2   1.0   4.6  2.5   2.04
.56   Kyle Lowry     Tor   37  .681   23.8   5.4   4.4    .6   2.1   .0   1.54
.43   Brook Lopez    Mil   32  .620   18.6   6.4   1.9    .9    .5  1.4   1.34
.32   George Hill    Mil   29  .692   14.9   5.3   2.6   1.9    .2   .5   1.09

.30   Marc Gasol     Tor   33  .450    8.3   8.6   4.4    .5   1.6  2.5    .91
.29   Pascal Siakam  Tor   36  .460   11.9   6.9   2.8   1.2   1.5  1.0    .80
.29  Khris Middleton Mil   36  .511   12.9   6.7   4.8    .4   1.9   .0    .79
.28  Malcolm Brogdon Mil   30  .526   15.5   5.7   3.9    .9   1.7   .0    .94
.18   Norman Powell  Tor   24  .565   17.7   4.4   2.3    .5   1.9   .0    .75

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e500
.17   Serge Ibaka    Tor   20  .449   10.3  11.7   1.8    .9   1.6   .6    .86
.11  Pat Connaughton Mil   12  .607    8.7   8.6   2.7    .5    .5  1.9    .89
.11   Fred VanVleet  Tor   26  .564   11.3   1.5   4.2    .8   1.3   .8    .41
.10   Eric Bledsoe   Mil   29  .387    9.6   4.7   4.2   1.0   2.3   .0    .35
.09   Ersan Ilyasova Mil   15  .569   13.1   3.2   1.8   2.0    .4   .4    .61

.09   Nikola Mirotic Mil   22  .476   13.5   5.7    .6   1.3   2.3   .3    .41
-.02  Danny Green    Tor   26  .339    3.6   4.8   1.1   2.0   1.1   .8   -.09
shooting: Tor .529 - .524 Mil
rebounds/48: Mil 51.6 - 44.2 Tor
turnovers: Tor 12.0 - 12.8 Mil

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:14 pm
by Mike G
Since both teams have scored equal (546) points thru 5 games, it seems opportune to test how the various stats align with this dead-even series.

Code: Select all

Bucks     min   PER   WS/50   BPM   e500 -   WS   vorp   eW
Giannis   38   20.9   .109    7.0   2.04    .42   .43   .78
Middleton 36   11.6   .083    1.3    .79    .30   .15   .29
B Lopez   32   18.1   .199    5.7   1.34    .63   .31   .43
Brogdon   30   14.2   .113    1.4    .94    .34   .13   .28
Bledsoe   29    6.7  -.039   -4.1    .35   -.11  -.08   .10

G Hill    29   19.1   .231    7.5   1.09    .67   .34   .32
Mirotic   22    9.0   .013   -3.3    .41    .03  -.04   .09
Ilyasova  15   15.8   .152    4.0    .61    .23   .12   .09
Conna'ton 12   18.6   .152    4.2    .89    .19   .10   .11

Bucks     min   PER   WS/50   BPM   e500 -   WS   vorp   eW
S Brown   2.2  23.0   .075   -5.5    .95    .02  -.01   .02
Frazier   1.4   8.7  -.041   -7.1   -.06   -.01  -.01   .00
Wilson    1.4  -2.1  -.196  -13.0   -.27   -.03  -.02   .00
Snell     1.2   8.7   .015   -6.0    .11    .00  -.01   .00
                        
totals   250   14.8   .107    2.5   1.00   2.68  1.41  2.50
correl w min    .00   -.10    .10    .51 -  .36   .47   .73
Correlations are for the top 9 players, all of whom have gone at least 12 mpg. The bottom group have just some garbage minutes and are included to give the totals a chance to add up.
Toronto has much higher correlations between advanced stats and minutes:

Code: Select all

Raptors   min   PER   WS/50   BPM   e500 -   WS   vorp   eW
Leonard   41   24.8   .199    7.3   2.15    .83   .48   .89
Lowry     37   19.6   .215    7.3   1.54    .79   .43   .56
Siakam    36   10.9   .034    1.0    .80    .12   .14   .29
M Gasol   33   10.5   .053    2.9    .91    .17   .20   .30
D Green   26    4.2  -.030   -1.0   -.09   -.08   .03  -.02

VanVleet  26   11.3   .091   -0.2    .41    .24   .06   .11
Powell    24   12.8   .066   -0.9    .75    .16   .03   .18
Ibaka     20   13.3   .055   -2.2    .86    .11  -.01   .17

Bucks     min   PER   WS/50   BPM   e500 -   WS   vorp   eW
Meeks     2.4   -.5  -.263  -13.9   -.35   -.06  -.04  -.01
M Miller  1.2  14.0   .289   -0.5    .31    .03   .00   .00
Moreland  1.0  12.9   .208   -1.4    .94    .02   .00   .01
Lin       1.0  -3.5  -.269  -15.1   -.01   -.03  -.02   .00
Boucher   0.8  31.6  -.097   -9.8   2.23   -.01  -.01   .02
                        
totals   250   14.1   .092    2.2   1.00   2.30  1.31  2.50
correl w min    .62    .61    .90    .72 -  .72   .90   .83
summation:

Code: Select all

stat     Mil    Tor
PER     14.8   14.1
ws/50   .107   .092
BPM     2.68   2.23
eW/500  1.00   1.00
I took the liberty of calling it WS/50, since avg game has been 50 minutes; and it then sums up close to 5 WS.
eWins is actually calculated per series, while the others are extracted from earlier totals.

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 6:16 pm
by Crow
More about Bucks use of Mirotic in this series:

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 0509178880

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 11:09 am
by Mike G
Raptors 4 , Bucks 2
avg score 107.7 - 106.7
Pyth wins 3.19 - 2.81 , eWins 3.09 - 2.91

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e497
1.18  Kawhi Leonard  Tor   41  .561   27.9   8.4   3.7   1.9   2.9   .9   2.36
.95   Antetokounmpo  Mil   39  .504   20.6  11.7   4.9   1.1   4.1  2.6   2.03
.77   Kyle Lowry     Tor   37  .693   23.9   5.4   4.9    .7   1.9   .0   1.71
.55   Brook Lopez    Mil   32  .604   18.7   6.9   1.8    .8    .6  1.7   1.43
.34   George Hill    Mil   30  .640   13.6   4.8   2.6   1.9    .4   .4    .95

.32   Marc Gasol     Tor   32  .481    8.6   8.3   4.1    .6   1.4  2.3    .85
.31  Malcolm Brogdon Mil   30  .544   15.3   5.4   3.6   1.0   2.0   .0    .84
.30   Pascal Siakam  Tor   37  .463   12.2   6.5   2.2   1.2   1.6  1.0    .68
.28  Khris Middleton Mil   37  .516   12.8   6.2   3.9    .3   1.9   .0    .64
.22   Norman Powell  Tor   23  .578   18.1   4.9   2.0    .5   1.9   .0    .78

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e497
.18   Serge Ibaka    Tor   21  .467   10.3  10.4   1.4    .7   1.3   .5    .70
.16   Fred VanVleet  Tor   27  .644   13.4   1.2   3.7    .6   1.0   .6    .49
.15   Ersan Ilyasova Mil   16  .590   14.7   4.2   1.7   1.6    .3   .3    .76
.13   Eric Bledsoe   Mil   30  .389    9.1   4.9   4.8   1.0   2.4   .0    .36
.11  Pat Connaughton Mil   12  .607    7.5   8.2   2.7    .8    .4  2.1    .79

.08   Nikola Mirotic Mil   19  .476   13.3   5.8    .6   1.3   2.3   .3    .35
-.06  Danny Green    Tor   25  .300    2.8   4.9   1.2   2.2   1.0   .7   -.19
shooting: Tor .537 - .524 Mil
rebounds/48: Mil 50.1 - 43.2 Tor
turnovers: Tor 11.8 - 12.5 Mil

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 11:57 am
by Mike G
This series wasn't really Giannis-vs-Kawhi, but it may as well have been.
Looking back, we see game-by-game eWin totals that track how everyone got to their final results.

Code: Select all

thru G    tm      1     2     3     4     5     6
Kawhi     Tor   .13   .28   .45   .58   .89  1.18
Giannis   Mil   .17   .42   .54   .63   .78   .95
Lowry     Tor   .18   .16   .23   .43   .56   .77
Lopez     Mil   .21   .23   .31   .33   .43   .55
Hill      Mil   .02   .07   .23   .24   .32   .34

Gasol     Tor   .03   .02   .15   .30   .30   .32
Brogdon   Mil   .07   .16   .23   .17   .28   .31
Siakam    Tor   .03   .03   .12   .18   .29   .30
Middleton Mil   .04   .07   .04   .25   .29   .28
Powell    Tor   .01   .06   .14   .18   .18   .22

thru G    tm      1     2     3     4     5     6
Ibaka     Tor   .02   .02   .05   .16   .17   .18
VanVleet  Tor   .00  -.01  -.05   .03   .11   .16
Ilyasova  Mil   .03   .14   .11   .13   .09   .15
Bledsoe   Mil   .02   .09   .10   .08   .10   .13
Conna'ton Mil   .01   .05   .11   .09   .11   .11

Mirotic   Mil   .04   .12   .14   .13   .09   .08
Green     Tor  -.01   .02   .01   .01  -.02  -.06
Kawhi got just over half his total eWins in the last 2 games. Giannis was merely good, not transcendent.

Game 3 was obviously critical, almost surreal. Down 8 with 9 minutes left, Bucks come all the way back but cannot close, lose in 2-OT.
After that effort, Milwaukee got essentially zilch from Ilyasova, Bledsoe, Connaughton, and Mirotic (combined).
Middleton with one good game in 6. Ibaka likewise.

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 5:59 am
by Mike G
For other perspectives, b-r.com advanced stats.

Code: Select all

Bucks     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e497     WS   vorp   eW
Giannis   231   20.9   .106   6.7   2.03    .49   .50   .94
Middleton 220   10.6   .065   0.2    .64    .29   .12   .28
Lopez     193   18.6   .195   5.4   1.43    .76   .36   .55
Brogdon   181   13.5   .105   1.3    .84    .38   .15   .31
Bledsoe   177    7.5  -.030  -3.5    .36   -.11  -.07   .13

Hill      177   17.9   .200   6.3    .95    .71   .37   .34
Mirotic   111    9.3   .005  -3.8    .35    .01  -.05   .08
Ilyasova   98   17.7   .188   4.8    .76    .37   .17   .15
Conna'ton  70   18.4   .147   4.1    .79    .21   .11   .11
                        
totals   1489   14.9   .103   2.3    .97   3.08  1.60  2.91
correl w min    -.01   -.11   .12    .50    .37   .49   .71
Mirotic didn't play in the last game, and PC went just 10 min.
Raps' 8 man rotation worked out for them.

Code: Select all

Raptors   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e497     WS   vorp   eW
Leonard   248   25.4   .209   7.5   2.36   1.04   .59  1.18
Lowry     224   18.8   .204   6.7   1.71    .92   .49   .77
Siakam    221   12.1   .054   1.3    .68    .24   .18   .30
Gasol     190   10.8   .065   3.1    .85    .25   .24   .32
VanVleet  164   10.5   .082  -0.6    .49    .27   .06   .16

Green     147    4.5  -.020  -0.7   -.19   -.06   .05  -.06
Powell    137   12.9   .073  -0.8    .78    .20   .04   .22
Ibaka     127   13.2   .063  -2.1    .70    .16   .00   .18
                        
totals   1490   14.3   .100   2.3   1.03   2.98  1.59  3.09
correl w min     .79    .88   .96    .77    .67   .75   .69

Re: 2019 conference finals: GSW-Por & Mil-Tor

Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 8:16 pm
by Crow
No Mirotic in game 6. But that was too late and wasn't enough adjustment.
All times are UTC
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