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Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:36 pm
by Mike G
From the previous tables:
Klay Thompson is having his best series of this postseason, even having missed a game.
Draymond, Cook, Bell, Looney, and McKinnie are all having their worst series. Most of those (and Cousins) are arguably doing nothing or worse. Yes, that's harsh; but bad is bad. Not a good trade-off.
For Toronto, Lowry and Powell are struggling; and everyone else is at or near the best they've been in these playoffs.
Gasol's effectiveness has been inversely proportional to his minutes. Their 4 'bigs' total 128 effective mpg, taking pressure off the backcourt.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:43 am
by Mike G
Raptors 3 ,
Warriors 2
avg score 111 - 105
Pyth wins 3.38 - 1.62 , eWins 2.94 - 2.06
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.08 Kawhi Leonard Tor 40 .596 27.9 10.6 4.0 1.8 3.1 1.1 2.57
.80 Stephen Curry GS 42 .593 26.0 5.3 4.5 1.2 2.7 .0 1.85
.50 Pascal Siakam Tor 39 .525 16.6 7.1 3.8 .4 1.4 .6 1.23
.45 Marc Gasol Tor 29 .651 18.7 9.7 3.1 .8 1.6 .5 1.47
.44 Klay Thompson GS 31 .658 22.5 4.8 2.6 .5 1.0 .0 1.36
.38 Draymond Green GS 41 .538 10.0 9.0 7.2 1.3 4.3 .7 .90
.34 Kyle Lowry Tor 37 .504 12.9 3.7 6.8 1.4 2.5 .6 .87
.33 Serge Ibaka Tor 19 .609 18.7 10.5 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.3 1.67
.19 Andre Iguodala GS 31 .434 5.9 6.4 4.9 1.4 2.0 1.9 .57
.18 Fred VanVleet Tor 32 .579 13.1 3.3 2.9 1.3 1.1 .0 .54
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.15 DeMarcus Cousins GS 18 .487 12.4 9.8 4.4 1.6 5.5 1.9 .83
.09 Danny Green Tor 29 .537 10.6 5.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 .7 .31
.07 Kevin Durant GS 2 .917 39.1 6.6 .0 .0 3.3 3.0 2.60
.06 Andrew Bogut GS 8 .857 9.7 10.9 2.0 .7 1.6 .7 .67
.03 Jonas Jerebko GS 5 .438 12.8 6.6 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .59
.02 Jordan Bell GS 5 .750 7.4 6.5 1.1 .0 .0 2.4 .40
.01 Shaun Livingston GS 16 .478 7.1 3.9 3.4 1.2 1.8 .4 .09
-.01 Quinn Cook GS 15 .500 9.1 1.8 1.9 .4 .9 .4 -.08
-.02 Norman Powell Tor 11 .458 5.2 3.0 2.3 1.1 .6 .0 -.15
-.02 Kevon Looney GS 15 .605 8.7 5.9 .8 .4 1.8 .0 -.14
-.06 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 9 .394 5.8 4.8 1.2 .0 2.1 .0 -.57
shooting: Tor .567 - .558 GS
rebounds: Tor 41.2 - 40.0 GS
turnovers:
Tor 13.0 - 16.6 GS
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:45 am
by Mike G
Other stats.
Durant Win Shares must have gone south with the team going 1-3. His WS/48 was .218 coming into the Finals and .208 after his 12 fab minutes.
Code: Select all
xyz Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
.79 Curry 209 23.2 .180 6.1 1.85 .78 .42 .80
.43 Thompson 156 19.4 .133 3.6 1.36 .43 .22 .44
.32 Green 203 12.0 .052 2.1 .83 .22 .21 .35
.20 Iguodala 156 9.9 .029 2.4 .57 .09 .17 .19
.10 Bogut 42 15.6 .158 3.0 .67 .14 .05 .06
.05 Bell 26 14.7 .140 2.8 .40 .08 .03 .02
.04 Cousins 89 10.5 -.024 -1.9 .83 -.04 .00 .15
.03 Durant 12 26.8 -.150 8.4 2.60 -.04 .03 .07
.01 Jerebko 24 14.0 .051 -4.0 .59 .03 -.01 .03
.01 Liv'ston 81 9.4 .037 -3.4 .09 .06 -.03 .01
xyz Dubs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
-.02 Looney 77 7.5 .009 -3.6 -.14 .01 -.03 -.02
-.04 Cook 75 7.3 .002 -4.9 -.08 .00 -.05 -.01
-.10 McKinnie 47 -1.0 -.125 -7.8 -.57 -.12 -.07 -.06
1.82 totals 1197 13.5 .064 1.1 .67 1.60 .92 1.67
Steph and Klay are great, and half the team has sucked.
Do the Raptors great 8 get tired before this is over?
Code: Select all
xyz Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
1.06 Leonard 202 27.4 .238 9.7 2.57 1.00 .59 1.08
.53 Gasol 146 17.6 .219 5.0 1.47 .66 .25 .45
.40 VanVleet 161 15.3 .169 3.9 .54 .57 .24 .18
.37 Lowry 187 13.4 .103 2.1 .87 .40 .19 .34
.35 Siakam 194 14.8 .083 0.5 1.23 .34 .12 .50
.35 Ibaka 94 22.7 .207 5.4 1.67 .41 .17 .33
.15 Green 145 8.1 .032 1.8 .31 .10 .14 .09
.00 Powell 55 8.2 .058 -3.6 -.15 .07 -.02 -.02
3.21 1184 16.6 .143 3.6 1.18 3.58 1.67 2.94
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:13 am
by Crow
Dubs getting virtually nothing from bench. I'll again say they probably should be criticized for doing too little about that. And for more than just big men.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:47 am
by Crow
Tough news for Durant. Really affects a lot of things. Hope and assume he'll eventually come back strong. What he give in game 5 was enough to help win that game and maybe save the series.
Athletes are fragile. Basketball players are at risk but the pay compensates for the risk.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:40 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:13 am
Dubs getting virtually nothing from bench. I'll again say they probably should be criticized for doing too little about that. And for more than just big men.
They should have had more than 5 recent all-NBA and all-stars on their team? Or they should have only injury-proof all-NBA players?
If they weren't the most stacked team in NBA history coming in, they certainly were the most over-talented in the league, yet again. Iggy and Livingston off the bench, plus Looney, McKinnie, Bell, Cook, Jerebko ... was the envy of the league until guys started getting hurt.
These same guys were great in previous round(s).
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:00 pm
by eminence
Using the Cousins money on a decent wing would've likely been the better option there. Outside of that though I don't see too many different moves the Warriors could've made.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:04 am
by Crow
This is a crude boxscore approach
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... iffeff/1-1
but the Warrior's bench ranked 12th on efficiency differential (rs + playoffs) and is the second lowest on points scored.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:55 am
by Crow
Close game.
But for series (at least before tonight) Raptors were far more likely to be successful in top lineups than the Warriors and the Warriors used way more dink lineups.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:00 am
by eminence
Yeah, I generally didn't feel great about Kerr's coaching in this one at all. Bit bummed no game 7, but a good game to close it out.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:03 am
by Crow
Before tonight, the Raptors were ahead on all four factors and only one was close. Tonight's game won't change any of these (I don't think).
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:06 am
by Crow
So which teams interviewed Nick Nurse for head coach before the Raptors did?
I am assuming the the Rockets never did, though they had employed him in a lower position in the past. Along with almost everyone else. He probably interviewed for the Pistons job. Looks like the Magic passed.
Dwane Casey: "When we hired (Nurse) in Toronto, he had never had an NBA interview"
https://clutchpoints.com/pistons-news-d ... g-for-him/
Three straight first time in the finals coaches win the NBA finals.
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:31 am
by Mike G
Raptors 4 , Warriors 2
avg score 111.5 - 105.8
Pyth wins 4.00 - 2.00, eWins 3.50 - 2.50
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.23 Kawhi Leonard Tor 41 .590 25.8 9.8 3.7 1.8 2.9 1.0 2.42
.91 Stephen Curry GS 42 .585 23.8 4.9 4.6 1.3 2.7 .1 1.74
.67 Pascal Siakam Tor 40 .553 17.3 7.4 3.4 .5 1.5 .6 1.35
.63 Klay Thompson GS 31 .699 24.8 5.1 2.1 .8 1.3 .0 1.61
.54 Kyle Lowry Tor 38 .542 14.7 4.2 6.9 1.6 2.6 .5 1.14
.53 Draymond Green GS 41 .532 9.4 10.5 7.5 1.5 4.8 .9 1.03
.45 Marc Gasol Tor 29 .600 15.2 10.2 3.4 .6 1.6 .4 1.26
.37 Serge Ibaka Tor 19 .602 18.5 9.2 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.6 1.52
.26 Andre Iguodala GS 31 .495 8.6 5.7 4.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 .66
.24 Fred VanVleet Tor 33 .600 14.5 3.1 2.3 1.2 1.1 .0 .60
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.20 DeMarcus Cousins GS 18 .485 12.5 9.5 3.9 1.3 4.4 1.8 .89
.07 Danny Green Tor 27 .537 9.1 5.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 .7 .20
.06 Kevin Durant GS 2 .917 37.3 6.4 .0 .0 3.2 2.9 2.54
.04 Andrew Bogut GS 8 .750 7.7 10.3 1.7 .6 1.4 .6 .43
.02 Jonas Jerebko GS 4 .438 10.7 5.7 .9 .0 .0 .0 .32
.02 Jordan Bell GS 4 .750 6.9 6.2 1.0 .0 .0 2.2 .32
-.00 Patrick McCaw Tor 2 .750 7.2 .0 4.2 .0 .0 .0 -.05
-.01 Shaun Livingston GS 16 .500 7.3 3.2 2.6 1.3 1.8 .3 -.06
-.02 Kevon Looney GS 17 .558 7.8 5.5 1.7 .6 1.7 .3 -.07
-.05 Quinn Cook GS 15 .483 7.7 1.9 1.5 .3 .7 .3 -.27
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.07 Norman Powell Tor 11 .393 3.7 2.9 1.8 .9 .9 .0 -.48
-.08 Alfonzo McKinnie GS 10 .371 4.3 5.4 .9 .0 1.6 .0 -.68
shooting: Tor .571 - .561 GS
rebounds: Tor 40.8 - 40.3 GS
turnovers:
Tor 12.8 - 16.7 GS
Other stats
Code: Select all
Dubs mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Curry 42 22.1 .161 5.6 1.74 .84 .48 .91
Green 41 12.9 .043 3.0 1.03 .22 .31 .53
Iguodala 31 11.4 .037 2.1 .66 .15 .19 .26
Thompson 31 21.9 .173 5.2 1.61 .68 .34 .63
Cousins 18 12.0 .005 -1.7 .89 .01 .01 .20
Looney 17 8.7 .018 -1.4 -.07 .04 .01 -.02
Liv'ston 16 9.2 .025 -3.8 -.06 .05 -.04 -.01
Cook 15 6.0 -.012 -5.3 -.27 -.02 -.07 -.05
McKinnie 10 -0.3 -.104 -7.2 -.68 -.12 -.07 -.08
Bogut 8 13.7 .120 1.1 .43 .11 .04 .04
Jerebko 4 12.8 .032 -4.8 .32 .02 -.02 .02
Bell 4 14.7 .132 2.4 .32 .07 .03 .02
Durant 2 26.8 -.224 4.7 2.54 -.06 .02 .06
totals 240 14.0 .065 1.3 .83 1.94 1.18 2.50
BPM adjusts to the level of competition, and the other stats do not. Warriors therefore look like a below avg team -- and they were below avg for the series -- except in BPM which shows them at +1.3, equivalent to a 44-38 RS team.
Raptors played like a 51-31 team.
Code: Select all
Raps min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
Leonard 41 25.6 .217 8.0 2.42 1.10 .61 1.23
Siakam 40 16.3 .107 1.6 1.35 .53 .22 .67
Lowry 38 16.0 .138 3.9 1.14 .66 .34 .54
VanVleet 33 15.9 .172 4.1 .60 .70 .30 .24
Gasol 29 15.8 .183 3.7 1.26 .66 .24 .45
Green 27 7.6 .027 1.7 .20 .09 .15 .07
Ibaka 19 22.1 .190 4.8 1.52 .46 .20 .37
Powell 11 4.0 -.005 -6.4 -.48 -.01 -.07 -.07
McCaw 2 13.2 .151 -3.7 -.05 .04 -.01 -.00
totals 240 16.6 .141 3.5 1.17 4.23 1.97 3.50
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:53 pm
by Crow
Depending on how much you like what ifs, it would be possible to adjust the metric team sums for injury absences, at least for first order effects, to guess how much difference that would have made.
Separate comment
By BPM over 3 the Raptors big 5 performers (with Siakam not performing at that level) beat the the Warriors big 3 (with Durant as an extra only in a cameo).
Re: 2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors
Posted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:22 pm
by Crow
5 of the 7 most used Warriors lineups were negative for this series. 2 moderately bad, 3 awful to horrendous.
76 lineups used in 6 games. Only 26% cumulatively positive.
Not a single lineup used in every game and only 5 used in 4 or more games. 55 lineups used in just a single game. 84% of lineups would qualify as dink lineups (less than 1 minute per game for series).
The biggest minute lineup was moderately bad. It dd well in the previous rounds and Looney was hurt.
Somehow they made it close. But in a lot of ways it wasn't.
Were lineups managed well? Overall, I'd say no.