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Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:13 am
by Mike G
...DeRozan is 313th on 1 yr PIPM. 157th on RPM. 290th on RAPM. 352th on Luck Adjusted RAPM.
Popovich has a lottery team record right now. Lineup management is a contributing reason for that. The 5 guys with the worst raw on court plus minus / 100 possessions are the 5 starters...
I don't consider ranking by strictly per-minute numbers, since you may have one good minute and stop there. Or 40 or 400, but it's only by being on the court that you actually contribute. The lowest minute guys are largely working in garbage time, in fractional possessions, in special-occasion lineups...
The Spurs are a very nearly average (SRS -0.8) team, so if their starters are losing in the plus-minus tallies, the bench must be mopping up. This seems to be typical of a deep team that doesn't have 3 or 4 super starters. The bench mob of course tends to play against other non-starters, so they just have to be better than the typical 6-thru-10 guys to look good.
For some reason, DeRozan has been 1st or 2nd in minutes for many years, for good teams with good coaches.
This year's .604 TS% is by far a career high. Reb% and Ast% well above career avg. Usg% at 7 year low.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:01 pm
by Crow
27% usage still driving his PER higher than other metrics.
Never above plus 2 in regular season on BPM and never even 0 / neutral on that in playoffs.
1 and 3 yr RAPM factor show very little impact on team efg%. He doesn't turn it over but he also doesn't offensive rebound. In 3 yr he helps team ft rate but not in 1 yr.
1 trip past second round in 11 years.
It is much less favorable on the metrics that cover defense and on / off better.
Raptors traded him and broke thru. Spurs have stalled and regressed with him. No extension yet. Is it coming? What will be achieved if it does?
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:57 pm
by Mike G
Top 1-2 punches in the league, ala previous table.
Code: Select all
26.9 LAL
13.6 LeBron James
13.3 Anthony Davis
24.1 Hou
16.3 James Harden
7.8 Russell Westbrook
23.5 Mil
15.0 Giannis Antetokounmpo
8.5 Khris Middleton
23.3 Por
14.1 Damian Lillard
9.2 Hassan Whiteside
22.0 Mia
11.1 Jimmy Butler
10.9 Bam Adebayo
LeBron + AD are dishing out as much as some (6)
teams are projecting to win.
Big Threes:
Code: Select all
32.2 LAL
13.6 LeBron James
13.3 Anthony Davis
5.3 Dwight Howard
29.6 Mil
15.0 Giannis Antetokounmpo
8.5 Khris Middleton
6.0 Eric Bledsoe
29.0 Hou
16.3 James Harden
7.8 Russell Westbrook
4.9 Robert Covington
28.3 Por
14.1 Damian Lillard
9.2 Hassan Whiteside
5.0 CJ McCollum
27.4 Mia
11.1 Jimmy Butler
10.9 Bam Adebayo
5.4 Duncan Robinson
Note that these are the same Top 5, and none of the #3's are
stars. Some will be seen to slip from the list.
top Top 4's
Code: Select all
37.4 LAL
13.6 LeBron James
13.3 Anthony Davis
5.3 Dwight Howard
5.1 JaVale McGee
35.2 Mil
15.0 Giannis Antetokounmpo
8.5 Khris Middleton
6.0 Eric Bledsoe
5.6 Brook Lopez
33.5 Hou
16.3 James Harden
7.8 Russell Westbrook
4.9 Robert Covington
4.5 P.J. Tucker
31.9 OKC
10.4 Chris Paul
7.4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
7.1 Danilo Gallinari
7.0 Steven Adams
31.6 Phl
11.1 Ben Simmons
7.6 Joel Embiid
6.8 Tobias Harris
6.2 Al Horford
A couple of deeply balanced teams appear. OKC has the best 4th-best player, whoever it is.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:29 pm
by Crow
Bucks not tops on any of these. Tops when everyone is included. That might not the typical way to win a title. Though the display did not highlight "best player" by self, which is Giannis by this.
Clippers nowhere to seen here. Might surprise some on the duo list.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:40 am
by Mike G
Giannis is better than Harden per minute, but he doesn't play as much. Harden actually has 5 seasons of more minutes than any from Giannis; and he's headed for a 6th.
Bucks overtake Lakers at 1 thru 7, where Ilyasova (3.4) appears to do more than Caruso (2.1)
I'm not sure of a reasonable way to display all this in one view. Here are team
wins from
1 thru 5 and
6 thru 10 players (ranked by total)
Code: Select all
tm 1-5 6-10
Mil 40.3 14.8
LAL 41.5 10.7
Dal 32.4 19.7
Tor 31.2 17.7
Mia 35.3 13.6
Phl 35.9 12.7
Bos 33.8 14.7
LAC 32.9 15.6
Uta 36.0 11.8
Den 33.5 13.3
Hou 37.7 8.3
OKC 37.5 8.1
Ind 29.9 12.9
SAS 29.5 10.7
Por 33.0 6.1
NOP 26.0 12.1
Orl 25.9 12.2
Brk 30.2 7.8
Mem 25.9 11.9
Phx 26.6 10.6
Sac 28.1 7.5
Was 22.7 10.4
Cle 27.6 4.3
Chi 24.3 7.4
Atl 23.6 7.2
Det 18.8 10.0
Cha 21.7 6.4
NYK 20.6 6.3
Min 18.9 3.1
GSW 16.0 3.2
Towns has .424 of the Wolves' total (1-10) win projection. Next is Lillard at .356 of the Blazers.
At the other end, Kemba leads Bos with .162 of theirs.
Code: Select all
8.3 Kemba Walker
8.0 Jayson Tatum
6.0 Gordon Hayward
5.8 Daniel Theis
5.7 Jaylen Brown
5.1 Marcus Smart
4.4 Enes Kanter
2.3 Brad Wanamaker
1.5 Robert Williams
1.4 Grant Williams
I didn't go beyond 10 players per team. At that, teams avg 39.9 wins, so on avg about 1 win from beyond #10
Clippers have the best #7 guy, Beverley. Paul George is 4th best #5 guy, in just 38% of team minutes.
Raptors' #10 (Boucher) is better than the Wolves' #3 (Okogie)
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:04 am
by Crow
That is all useful.
Re: player rankings 2019-20
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:20 am
by Crow
BPM(2), Expected Plus Minus. New things that could compared with other metrics. If interested.