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Re: 26-year RAPM and updates to the aging curve
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:45 pm
by permaximum
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:12 pm
permaximum wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:31 am
J.E. wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:02 am
- Jordan/Kemp/Malone/Olajuwon. Obviously this '97-onwards data isn't covering their entire careers. Kemp, certainly, wasn't great anywhere but in Seattle. Jordan wasn't quite as good with the Wizards, etc
These arguments are null since it's obvious you didn't factor everyone's age back in after adjusting for it in the regression.
To make it simple for others to understand, this RAPM shows how everyone would look if they were the same age. So Jordan, Kemp etc. got huge boosts because of this.
So this doesn't show their performance in the timeframe of 1997-2022. It makes an estimate of everyone who played in that timeperiod's "career" performances.
That is true, but it'is only looking at a player's performance in the window evaluated. So if Kemp was not good from 1997 onward
for his age, he won't look good here for his "career number". I know you understand this, but just wanted to make it clear.
Players who played very well for their advanced age will show up very high here, if their pre-prime and early prime years are not included in the sample.
The same goes for players doing very well at a young age that don't have their prime years in-sample yet. Since everyone gets the same aging curve, if a player has an early peak (say from 20-24) in this sample, and they're only 25 now, the regression will boost them given anticipated future improvement, no matter if that is realistic or not.
100%.
Re: 26-year RAPM and updates to the aging curve
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 10:54 pm
by Crow
How much is the decline portion of the age curve based on athletic deterioration from chronological aging vs. the wear n tear of play?
Do players with significantly different minutes of NBA play show any difference in age curve decline? Or is the physical toll of being in the NBA and ready to play about the same regardless of what happens 10-30 minutes a couple times per week?
Does 25 plus minutes per game in first few years speed up movement up the age curve over 10-15? Can you adequately control for incoming talent level? Or looking at peak level, what can you observe about early season usage by peak level performance band?
Re: 26-year RAPM and updates to the aging curve
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2022 4:09 am
by Crow
How different is the decline portion of the age curve for players under large / long contracts vs. smaller / shorter? Obviously player quality differs and is related to contract but there are probably sets of relatively equal player quality at a certain moment with very different contract terms.
Coast or reason to stay engaged for more big money?
How good is RAPM or RAPM year to year or month to month change (or DARKO or whatever else) as a forecasting tool for out year contract performance / value?