Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:15 pm
https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/
then click current player skill projections and read down the list.
APBRmetrics
Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
http://apbr.org/metrics/
22-23 MVP Tracker
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Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:44 pm
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:09 pm
Darko certainly looks interesting by weighing recent games more heavily. Everyone else seems to just take the season as a whole. Currently, Luka Doncic has just about the highest rating of the year, and for his whole career. So it's not just a few recent weak games that gives him very underwhelming numbers and ranking. Alongside some other stats:
The 3 plus-minus stats basically agree in quality -- up, down, up, up -- but not in quantity.
I can rather closely counterfeit his Darko scores from either his RPM or his BPM:
D = (BPM + 0.63)^(0.52)
D = (RPM + 3.9)^(0.49)The DPM figures are from holding a straight-edge over the player career graph, from the endpoint of each season.
Code: Select all
Luka DPM RPM BPM WS/48 PER
2019 2.2 1.1 3.9 .101 19.6
2020 3.2 4.3 8.4 .207 27.6
2021 2.7 3.0 6.8 .163 25.3
2022 3.1 6.5 8.2 .159 25.1
2023 3.5 9.0 10.8 .249 30.8
23rank 18 1 2 3 3
#1 Embiid Luka Jokic Jokic Jokic
# 6.0 9.0 12.1 .300 32.5
I can rather closely counterfeit his Darko scores from either his RPM or his BPM:
D = (BPM + 0.63)^(0.52)
D = (RPM + 3.9)^(0.49)
Code: Select all
yr DPM bpmD rpmD
19 2.2 2.19 2.20
20 3.2 3.14 2.80
21 2.7 2.84 2.58
22 3.1 3.10 3.15
23 3.5 3.55 3.50
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:39 pm
May be an extreme case but it is a reminder that checking multiple metrics can provide added perspective, even though it might increase uncertainty. I'll usually do that but might not in a hurry.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:17 am
DARKO has never really liked Dončić, even after some methodological changes. (See: https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/1255902457554755588)
Also, maybe the DARKO ratings had changed, but as of the Dec. 19 update, Jokić is 1st in DPM with 6.1 — not Embiid.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:45 pm
A 40-27-10 game might account for that.DarkStar48 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:17 amDARKO has never really liked Dončić, even after some methodological changes. (See: https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/1255902457554755588)
Also, maybe the DARKO ratings had changed, but as of the Dec. 19 update, Jokić is 1st in DPM with 6.1 — not Embiid.
The BPM and RPM conversions I posted above may apply only to Luka. For him to expect 6.0 in DARKO, he'd have to be at 30+ in both.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 6:17 am
RPM here is from ESPN? I hadn't check that yet this year. I guess I will now... maybe just once.
I assume still no explanation of past method changes or recent ones? Anyone have any new opinions on its quality?
Anyone else have their own RAPM to share?
I assume still no explanation of past method changes or recent ones? Anyone have any new opinions on its quality?
Anyone else have their own RAPM to share?
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2022 12:05 am
It will be amusing to read and watch the reasons that the Joker should not be MVP again, as he daily puts up the superhuman numbers.
These alleged 'wins' are extrapolations to the full season, all unofficial.
The current b-r.com tracker:
Code: Select all
xyzW Player Tm Min perW WS bpmW
16.2 Nikola Jokić Den 972 15.0 15.7 17.9
15.8 Luka Dončić Dal 1136 15.4 14.3 17.6
13.7 Kevin Durant Brk 1165 13.8 12.8 14.3
12.9 Domantas Sabonis Sac 1041 11.2 14.1 13.4
12.6 Shai G-Alexander OKC 1077 13.0 11.8 13.1
12.5 Jayson Tatum Bos 1186 12.7 11.9 12.9
12.0 Anthony Davis LAL 836 12.3 12.1 11.6
11.9 Donovan Mitchell Cle 1091 10.9 11.5 13.5
11.8 Joel Embiid Phl 859 12.1 11.1 12.2
11.8 Tyrese Haliburton Ind 1041 10.6 11.3 13.4
xyzW Player Tm Min perW WS bpmW
11.0 Giannis Mil 931 11.7 9.4 11.9
11.0 Stephen Curry GSW 894 10.2 9.9 12.9
9.8 DeMar DeRozan Chi 1138 10.7 10.0 8.8
9.6 Julius Randle NYK 1162 9.3 9.2 10.2
9.5 Zion Williamson NOP 835 9.5 9.1 9.8
9.3 Lauri Markkanen Uta 1080 9.1 9.5 9.3
9.0 Pascal Siakam Tor 842 8.8 8.2 10.0
9.0 Jimmy Butler Mia 731 8.2 9.4 9.4
8.8 Devin Booker Phx 1002 9.1 8.3 9.1
8.6 Trae Young Atl 1069 9.7 6.9 9.3
The current b-r.com tracker:
Code: Select all
Prob% per game: W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.508 Nikola Jokić .66 25.4 11.0 9.4 1.5 .7 3.6
.136 Luka Dončić .53 32.8 8.3 8.7 1.7 .5 3.7
.117 Joel Embiid .63 33.1 9.7 4.5 1.1 1.6 3.8
.058 Giannis .67 31.2 11.2 5.1 .9 .9 3.8
.058 Jayson Tatum .71 30.9 8.1 4.1 1.2 .9 2.7
.041 Kevin Durant .64 29.9 6.6 5.3 .8 1.6 3.5
.030 Domantas Sabonis .55 17.9 12.4 6.7 .8 .5 2.5
.021 Donovan Mitchell .65 28.9 3.8 4.5 1.4 .3 2.9
.017 Anthony Davis .39 27.4 12.1 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.9
.015 Stephen Curry .47 30.0 6.6 6.8 1.0 .3 3.1
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2022 2:22 am
you mean like the fact that he's not much of a defender, that denver is currently the 4th worst team in the league defensively, that they allow a league 5th highest 2pt FG%? like those reasons?It will be amusing to read and watch the reasons that the Joker should not be MVP again
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:18 am
I see Jokic has a higher DBPM than any Heat player (almost double Butler). Higher OBPM too of course (about 60% above Butler).
On D-EPM, Butler has a small fractional lead. On O-EPM, it is Jokic by almost 80%.
One player is not a team defense. No Nuggets player other than Jokic has a positive D-BPM. Butler has 9 such positive teammates.
Completely different team designs & results.
Voters probably won't be completely rationale. The MVP regular race numbers race is mildly interesting to me, but I'll be more interested in playoff leadership and progress. Other candidates have more on that part of their resumes. Butler ahead of Jokic on that so far. Jokic with one conference finals and not a close one. In the long-run, he'll need more there or it will be a significant argument diminishing his career greatness some.
On D-EPM, Butler has a small fractional lead. On O-EPM, it is Jokic by almost 80%.
One player is not a team defense. No Nuggets player other than Jokic has a positive D-BPM. Butler has 9 such positive teammates.
Completely different team designs & results.
Voters probably won't be completely rationale. The MVP regular race numbers race is mildly interesting to me, but I'll be more interested in playoff leadership and progress. Other candidates have more on that part of their resumes. Butler ahead of Jokic on that so far. Jokic with one conference finals and not a close one. In the long-run, he'll need more there or it will be a significant argument diminishing his career greatness some.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2022 10:48 am
Denver opponents shoot .025 better eFG% when Jokic is on the floor, compared to when he's not.
Yet somehow they score 4.4 pts/100 poss less vs Den w Jokic, than w DeAndre Jordan or other.
With Jokic playing, the Nuggets' D-Rtg is 113.7 -- just off the NBA avg 113.3
When he's out, their defense rivals the Pistons or Spurs (2 worst).
Their ORtg w Jokic is 124.1, almost 6 pts/100 better than #1 Celtics.
To more than make up for the opponent shooting, Den enjoys a 80.1 DReb% with Jokic on the floor. This is 1.3 better than the #1 Bulls.
They also have had a 3.9 Turnover/100 advantage with Jokic playing. This flips to a 2.9 disadvantage when he sits -- 6.8 TO difference in an avg game.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 23/on-off/
Yet somehow they score 4.4 pts/100 poss less vs Den w Jokic, than w DeAndre Jordan or other.
With Jokic playing, the Nuggets' D-Rtg is 113.7 -- just off the NBA avg 113.3
When he's out, their defense rivals the Pistons or Spurs (2 worst).
Their ORtg w Jokic is 124.1, almost 6 pts/100 better than #1 Celtics.
To more than make up for the opponent shooting, Den enjoys a 80.1 DReb% with Jokic on the floor. This is 1.3 better than the #1 Bulls.
They also have had a 3.9 Turnover/100 advantage with Jokic playing. This flips to a 2.9 disadvantage when he sits -- 6.8 TO difference in an avg game.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 23/on-off/
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:03 pm
I think defensive metrics overvalue his defensive impact towards the NBA top tier. In addition, his rim protection has regressed from last season.
However, Jokić is no longer a “bad defender,” nor is he uniquely vulnerable for someone of his size.
However, Jokić is no longer a “bad defender,” nor is he uniquely vulnerable for someone of his size.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:51 pm
It's truly a 2-man race. For a while it was 40-something to 30-something.
Unless both guys get injured, I don't see how anyone else makes a run now. Giannis and Embiid keep missing games, and Durant is out a few weeks now.I wonder how the Prob% would shift if b-r.com would use their very own Projected team W% instead of the current W%.
Unless both guys get injured, I don't see how anyone else makes a run now. Giannis and Embiid keep missing games, and Durant is out a few weeks now.
Code: Select all
Prob% player tm W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.570 Jokic Den .67 25.3 10.8 9.5 1.4 .6 3.4
.214 Doncic Dal .56 34.0 8.8 8.7 1.6 .6 3.7
.053 Durant Brk .68 29.7 6.7 5.3 .8 1.5 3.5
.047 Giannis Mil .64 32.0 11.8 5.2 .8 .9 4.1
.041 Tatum Bos .70 30.8 8.1 4.1 1.1 .8 2.7
.025 Sabonis Sac .53 18.9 12.4 6.7 .8 .5 2.6
.016 Morant Mem .67 27.2 5.9 8.0 1.1 .2 3.6
.015 Mitchell Cle .63 28.8 3.9 4.8 1.4 .4 3.1
.011 Haliburton Ind .56 20.3 4.0 10.3 1.8 .4 2.6
.009 Zion NOP .60 26.0 7.0 4.6 1.1 .6 3.4Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:37 am
And yet his main competition at this point in time is even less of a defender. It's a pretty empty argument in terms of MVP voting, Jokic won't win it because of voter fatigue, and that's about it.
Re: 22-23 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Jan 10, 2023 6:23 pm
Jokić DefRtg: 113.615 pts/100poss.
Jokić raw Def. On/Off: -4.60 pts/100poss.
Jokić FiveThirtyEight “adjusted” Def. On/Off: -2.62 pts/100poss.
Jokić D-RAPM rank: 102
Dončić DefRtg: 115.758
Dončić raw Def. On/Off: +3.65
Dončić FiveThirtyEight “adjusted” Def. On/Off: +1.33
Dončić D-RAPM rank: 404