Page 11 of 13
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2026 12:23 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Wed Jan 28, 2026 12:11 am
These are career to date impact estimates or to a certain year or peak?
Rookie season averages in these stats, by draft pick, 2013-2025
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2026 3:30 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Jan 27, 2026 3:30 pm
Yes.^^
I messed around with age adjustment and decided (again) not to bother.
Also "yes" for WShr, perW, and eWin.
Today's top-to-bottom spread is smallest yet! Down from 2.47 on Jan 9, to 1.91 now.
The whole field has improved since then, by an avg of .60 in MAE:
1.04 KPel
.89 DQin
.88 Crow
.80 Mgoo
.80 avgA
.73 WShr
.68 bpmW
.67 medi
.65 25pr
.63 dtka
.58 eWin
.47 Walr
.47 knar
.40 EExp
.40 bmgm
.37 Ebet
.24 perW
.16 DRKO
I do have detailed aging curves developed for BPM; next year we can include those.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 9:55 pm
by nbacouchside
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 28, 2026 3:30 pm
Mike G wrote: ↑Tue Jan 27, 2026 3:30 pm
Yes.^^
I messed around with age adjustment and decided (again) not to bother.
Also "yes" for WShr, perW, and eWin.
Today's top-to-bottom spread is smallest yet! Down from 2.47 on Jan 9, to 1.91 now.
The whole field has improved since then, by an avg of .60 in MAE:
1.04 KPel
.89 DQin
.88 Crow
.80 Mgoo
.80 avgA
.73 WShr
.68 bpmW
.67 medi
.65 25pr
.63 dtka
.58 eWin
.47 Walr
.47 knar
.40 EExp
.40 bmgm
.37 Ebet
.24 perW
.16 DRKO
I do have detailed aging curves developed for BPM; next year we can include those.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 10:36 pm
by DSMok1
I laid out a true BPM 2.0 projection system in this post:
viewtopic.php?p=37451#p37451
I just haven't gotten around to actually doing them ahead of the season.
I also have better priors now than those mentioned in that post
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Jan 30, 2026 1:55 pm
by Mike G
Everyone takes a beating from yesterday's season-best averages, by an avg of .17 -- none more than bpmW, by .27
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
knar 6.38 7.72 .51 EExp 6.73 8.11 .47
DRKO 6.43 7.67 .52 dtka 6.82 8.22 .46
Walr 6.44 8.00 .48 eWin 6.99 8.66 .41
bmgm 6.47 7.81 .55 25pr 7.06 9.20 .35
bpmW 6.49 7.90 .50 Crow 7.15 8.86 .43
avgA 6.51 8.14 .47 perW 7.37 9.31 .34
WShr 6.54 8.68 .41 medi 7.52 9.15 .43
Mgoo 6.60 8.37 .45 KPel 7.91 9.53 .36
Ebet 6.70 7.98 .54 DQin 8.39 10.46 .32
UPDATE Jan. 31 -- all of the top 8 change positions; no one below that.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.40 7.85 .55 EExp 6.69 8.15 .47
bpmW 6.43 7.95 .50 dtka 6.87 8.31 .45
DRKO 6.43 7.75 .52 eWin 7.00 8.69 .41
knar 6.49 7.78 .51 25pr 7.20 9.30 .34
avgA 6.51 8.20 .47 Crow 7.22 8.89 .43
Walr 6.51 8.07 .48 perW 7.27 9.30 .35
Mgoo 6.61 8.41 .45 medi 7.60 9.24 .42
WShr 6.63 8.73 .41 KPel 7.88 9.58 .36
Ebet 6.63 7.99 .54 DQin 8.43 10.53 .31
New leader is BetMGM, a 2nd gambling entity I added on Jan. 5 [What we had called Vegas is now Ebet].
Last year at this time, they were a distant last place, almost 3 off the lead.
This is the 7th entry to be on top since mid-Nov and 4th in the last 8 days.
UPDATE Feb. 2 -- top 10 with no more than .05 separation between them.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.50 7.85 .56 dtka 6.99 8.36 .46
DRKO 6.54 7.76 .52
Walr 6.55 8.12 .48 eWin 7.12 8.78 .41
knar 6.57 7.87 .51 25pr 7.17 9.31 .35
bpmW 6.58 8.04 .50 Crow 7.19 8.87 .44
avgA 6.63 8.26 .47
WShr 6.67 8.79 .41 perW 7.40 9.38 .35
Mgoo 6.72 8.47 .45 medi 7.64 9.25 .43
Ebet 6.73 8.01 .54 KPel 8.00 9.64 .36
EExp 6.76 8.21 .48 DQin 8.53 10.60 .31
UPDATE Feb. 3 on team over-achievement relative to our avg predictions:
Code: Select all
tm avgA proj over over tm avgA proj
Phx 33.9 48.0 14.1 15.3 Det 42.8 58.2
SAS 42.5 53.4 10.9 9.3 Tor 36.8 46.1
Hou 49.7 52.7 3.0 9.3 Cha 29.9 39.2
Min 46.7 49.6 2.9 8.5 Bos 43.1 51.6
Por 36.1 38.7 2.6 8.4 Mia 37.3 45.8
Uta 24.0 25.2 1.2 7.7 Phl 37.2 44.9
LAL 44.0 45.1 1.1 2.9 NYK 48.3 51.2
OKC 62.7 63.0 0.3 1.4 Chi 35.7 37.1
Den 50.6 50.4 -0.2 0.4 Was 20.5 21.0
GSW 48.3 45.1 -3.2 -1.5 Brk 25.7 24.2
Mem 42.8 34.5 -8.3 -3.6 Atl 43.4 39.8
NOP 32.8 24.2 -8.6 -4.2 Cle 53.0 48.8
LAC 49.3 40.1 -9.2 -6.1 Orl 48.9 42.9
Dal 45.6 32.2 -13.4 -9.3 Mil 41.2 31.9
Sac 38.2 21.4 -16.8 -15.5 Ind 39.3 23.9
West teams total 23 fewer wins than we expected, East that many more; avg wins now look to be W 41.6 - 40.4 E.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2026 3:51 pm
by Mike G
On the left, the biggest gap is between #1 and 2.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.52 7.94 .55 eWin 7.09 8.92 .40
Walr 6.60 8.24 .47
knar 6.62 8.09 .49 25pr 7.25 9.46 .34
DRKO 6.67 7.92 .51
bpmW 6.68 8.28 .48 perW 7.45 9.51 .34
EExp 6.69 8.24 .48 Crow 7.54 9.11 .42
Ebet 6.76 8.10 .54
avgA 6.78 8.45 .45 medi 7.74 9.37 .42
Mgoo 6.84 8.64 .44
WShr 6.89 9.04 .39 KPel 8.13 9.80 .35
dtka 6.92 8.48 .45 DQin 8.82 10.85 .29
Avg for the field is 7.11 MAE
17 days ago, avgA led EExp by .43
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2026 5:51 pm
by Mike G
In each conference, 7 of 15 teams are tracking to be either entirely above or below all our pre-season predictions:
Above all: Phx, SAS; Bos, Cha, Det, Mia, Tor
Below all: Dal, LAC, Mem, NOP, Sac; Ind, Mil
In each case, it's not very close nor (mostly) looking to get closer.
The teams
in contention-- wins or losses benefit some of us and punish others -- with their b-r.com projections placed among our guesses:
Code: Select all
W Atl W Brk W Chi W Cle W NYK W Orl W Phl W Was
46 DQ 33 WS 41 Cr 58 md 52 Wa 55 eW 47 md 25 DO
46 dt 31 kn 38 WS 57 DO 51 b-r 52 Cr 45 b-r 24 Wa
45 md 28 bW 38 KP 56 dt 51 DO 51 kn 43 pW 23 dt
44 kn 28 DO 36 kn 55 DQ 50 pW 50 DO 38 KP 23 kn
44 KP 27 pW 36 md 54 WS 49 md 50 md 38 eW 22 b-r
44 pW 27 eW 36 b-r 53 Wa 49 dt 50 KP 38 Cr 22 eW
44 bW 26 DQ 35 DQ 53 bW 48 kn 49 Wa 37 dt 21 WS
43 eW 26 Wa 35 bW 52 Cr 48 Cr 48 pW 37 DO 21 pW
43 DO 25 dt 35 DO 51 kn 48 WS 48 bW 35 bW 21 Cr
42 WS 23 b-r 34 dt 50 KP 47 KP 46 dt 34 Wa 19 bW
42 Wa 22 Cr 34 pW 50 pW 47 eW 43 WS 34 kn 18 md
41 b-r 19 md 33 Wa 50 eW 47 bW 43 b-r 33 DQ 17 DQ
39 Cr 18 KP 32 eW 50 b-r 43 DQ 42 DQ 32 WS 14 KP
^ Atl ^ Brk ^ Chi ^ Cle ^ NYK ^ Orl ^ Phl ^ Was
W Den W GSW W Hou W LAL W Min W OKC W Por W Uta
55 pW 56 KP 58 DQ 47 pW 52 md 69 DQ 43 md 28 Wa
54 md 51 DQ 53 Cr 47 dt 49 b-r 67 Wa 39 b-r 28 DO
52 KP 51 Cr 52 DO 47 eW 49 WS 65 bW 39 DQ 26 kn
52 DO 50 md 51 b-r 46 b-r 48 DQ 65 WS 38 WS 26 dt
52 DQ 50 dt 51 md 46 bW 48 Cr 64 Cr 38 bW 26 b-r
52 Cr 49 bW 50 kn 46 KP 48 dt 64 md 37 Wa 25 eW
51 bW 48 kn 50 bW 44 WS 47 bW 63 b-r 36 DO 25 WS
50 WS 47 WS 50 Wa 44 Wa 47 kn 63 kn 36 kn 24 bW
50 Wa 47 Wa 49 dt 43 md 46 eW 61 dt 36 Cr 24 md
50 b-r 46 eW 47 WS 42 Cr 46 Wa 60 eW 36 dt 23 pW
48 dt 45 b-r 47 KP 41 DQ 45 DO 60 DO 36 KP 21 DQ
47 eW 44 DO 46 eW 41 kn 44 KP 59 KP 32 eW 20 KP
45 kn 42 pW 46 pW 39 DO 41 pW 58 pW 30 pW 19 Cr
^ Den ^ GSW ^ Hou ^ LAL ^ Min ^ OKC ^ Por ^ Uta
UPDATE Feb. 8
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.64 8.06 .54 dtka 7.01 8.65 .43
DRKO 6.67 8.01 .51 WShr 7.03 9.26 .37
EExp 6.68 8.36 .47 eWin 7.17 9.07 .38
bpmW 6.79 8.43 .46 25pr 7.36 9.67 .32
knar 6.82 8.24 .47 perW 7.42 9.62 .33
Walr 6.83 8.41 .46 Crow 7.60 9.19 .41
Ebet 6.87 8.23 .53 medi 7.84 9.48 .41
avgA 6.90 8.60 .44 KPel 8.23 9.96 .33
Mgoo 6.91 8.80 .42 DQin 8.83 11.03 .28
At this time last year, nobody was within .40 of the lead; today 10 are.
In a week and a half, EExp have gone from 11th (.57 back) to nearly 1st.
UPDATE Feb. 11
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.59 7.96 .51 WShr 7.07 9.27 .37
bmgm 6.63 8.11 .54 eWin 7.18 9.09 .38
bpmW 6.71 8.43 .46 25pr 7.36 9.73 .31
knar 6.73 8.20 .48 perW 7.49 9.68 .32
EExp 6.77 8.44 .46 Crow 7.56 9.21 .41
Walr 6.77 8.40 .46
Mgoo 6.83 8.82 .42 medi 7.89 9.50 .41
avgA 6.87 8.62 .44
Ebet 6.90 8.29 .52 KPel 8.29 10.03 .33
dtka 6.96 8.67 .43 DQin 8.78 11.02 .28
BetMGM had 11 days on top.
UPDATE Feb. 12 -- a good night for the gambling houses, 25pr, and Walrus; not for the rest.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.61 8.15 .54 dtka 7.08 8.72 .44
DRKO 6.65 8.00 .52 WShr 7.11 9.30 .37
Walr 6.74 8.41 .47 25pr 7.31 9.71 .32
bpmW 6.79 8.51 .46 eWin 7.31 9.15 .38
knar 6.83 8.30 .48 perW 7.56 9.73 .33
Ebet 6.86 8.34 .52 Crow 7.64 9.27 .41
Mgoo 6.92 8.85 .43 medi 7.98 9.57 .41
avgA 6.94 8.67 .44 KPel 8.35 10.10 .33
EExp 6.94 8.51 .46 DQin 8.85 11.07 .28
Overall errors are largest since Jan. 10. PER at worst of the season.
UPDATE Feb. 13 -- a separation of powers
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.59 8.12 .54 WShr 7.13 9.33 .37
DRKO 6.64 8.01 .51 eWin 7.23 9.16 .38
. 25pr 7.32 9.69 .32
bpmW 6.81 8.53 .46 perW 7.47 9.75 .32
Walr 6.81 8.41 .47
Ebet 6.84 8.30 .52 Crow 7.67 9.26 .41
EExp 6.85 8.47 .46
knar 6.86 8.33 .47 medi 7.97 9.56 .41
Mgoo 6.90 8.86 .42
avgA 6.96 8.68 .44 KPel 8.30 10.06 .33
dtka 6.99 8.71 .43
. DQin 8.88 11.11 .27
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2026 4:43 pm
by Crow
Into the final stretch, of fighting for playoff seed or accepting, of accelerated tanking or circumspection. Hard to say what it will be more like overall.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2026 9:21 pm
by Mike G
Post-allstar week.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.61 8.04 .52 avgA 7.01 8.78 .44
bmgm 6.63 8.17 .54 WShr 7.16 9.46 .36
knar 6.84 8.38 .47 eWin 7.20 9.23 .38
Walr 6.86 8.51 .46 25pr 7.33 9.79 .32
bpmW 6.86 8.63 .45 perW 7.47 9.86 .32
Ebet 6.88 8.37 .52 Crow 7.69 9.35 .41
EExp 6.88 8.55 .46 medi 8.05 9.66 .40
Mgoo 6.92 8.94 .42 KPel 8.36 10.19 .32
dtka 6.94 8.79 .43 DQin 8.94 11.21 .27
Feb. 22
Leaders at various exponents:
Code: Select all
exponent range max @ e
WShr .. - .32 (.04+ .20)
dtka .32 - .38 .015 .37
bmgm .39 - .96 .135 .63
DRKO .97 - 3.3 .097 1.8
bmgm 3.3 - 23 .210 9.0
DRKO 24 - 80 .064 29
Ebet 85 - ... (.003+ 100)
While DARKO leads at e=1 and e=2, it's not by as much as bmgm in both of their ranges.
UPDATE Feb. 23
DARKO had 3 days on top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.69 8.29 .54 WShr 7.31 9.64 .35
DRKO 6.78 8.20 .51 eWin 7.32 9.36 .38
Walr 6.92 8.66 .46 25pr 7.48 9.96 .32
EExp 6.94 8.71 .46 perW 7.63 9.99 .32
Ebet 6.95 8.49 .52 Crow 7.77 9.53 .40
knar 6.97 8.57 .47
bpmW 6.97 8.80 .45 medi 8.17 9.81 .40
Mgoo 7.03 9.08 .42
dtka 7.08 8.97 .43 KPel 8.47 10.32 .32
avgA 7.12 8.95 .43 DQin 9.10 11.41 .26
Largest errors yet for PER and DQ. Worst for the field since Jan. 9
Feb. 24
Listed in order of current seeding (if the season ended today); chance of winning conference, winning Finals, and winning Finals if they should get there.
Code: Select all
West conf Fin F/c East conf Fin F/c
OKC .656 .514 .78 Det .353 .135 .38
SAS .178 .099 .56 Bos .267 .090 .34
Hou .069 .032 .46 NYK .168 .049 .29
Den .039 .015 .38 Cle .110 .029 .26
Min .036 .014 .39 Tor .025 .004 .16
LAL .003 .000 .00 Mia .051 .011 .22
Phx .007 .002 .29 Orl .011 .002 .18
GSW .010 .003 .30 Phl .007 .001 .14
LAC .001 .000 .00 Cha .009 .002 .22
. Atl .001 .000 .00
tot 1.00 .679 .68 tot 1.00 .323 .32
Feb. 26
With a win over a seriously depleted OKC, the Pistons' chance of winning it all rises from .382 to .404 -- assuming they get out of the East.
Compare to before this game (above)
Code: Select all
tm conf Fin F/c
OKC .649 .503 .775
Det .376 .152 .404
UPDATE Feb. 27 -- gambling houses now #1-2
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.62 8.28 .54 dtka 7.26 9.06 .43
Ebet 6.80 8.49 .52 WShr 7.31 9.87 .34
DRKO 6.82 8.25 .52 eWin 7.37 9.43 .38
EExp 6.90 8.73 .46 25pr 7.64 10.19 .30
bpmW 6.99 8.89 .45 perW 7.66 10.03 .32
Mgoo 7.04 9.13 .42 Crow 7.70 9.51 .41
Walr 7.08 8.76 .46 medi 7.98 9.80 .40
knar 7.11 8.64 .47 KPel 8.41 10.38 .32
avgA 7.12 9.02 .43 DQin 9.03 11.50 .26
Almost everyone is closer to their season-worst error than to their best/lowest mark.
The first two are just slightly closer to their best. The average is .48 closer to worst.
Code: Select all
x best Now worst
-.06 bmgm 6.35 6.62 6.96
-.06 EExp 6.52 6.90 7.34
.20 dtka 6.69 7.26 7.62
.20 Mgoo 6.38 7.04 7.51
.32 Walr 6.18 7.08 7.66
.35 WShr 6.33 7.31 7.94
.46 medi 7.27 7.98 8.23
.49 Crow 6.90 7.70 8.00
.51 eWin 6.52 7.37 7.72
.53 knar 6.25 7.11 7.44
.56 avgA 6.31 7.12 7.37
.60 KPel 7.50 8.41 8.71
.65 Ebet 5.83 6.80 7.12
.69 bpmW 6.08 6.99 7.22
.74 DRKO 6.02 6.82 6.88
.95 perW 6.71 7.66 7.66
.99 DQin 7.97 9.03 9.10
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Feb 27, 2026 10:26 pm
by Crow
Pretty late in season. Entries less regressed than others might see some gains as some teams reach for the bottom. Not sure if the top or middle will rise more but some will have to.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2026 1:33 pm
by Mike G
Both Ebet and bmgm correctly called the dropout situation for Brk, Chi, Dal, Mem, Sac, and Uta; incorrect on Cha and Phx.
They went high on Det, NYK, Phl, Tor, Hou, Min; but also Atl, Cle, and (unresolved) Den.
So that's 12-4 where they were + or - 3 wins from our average guesses. Not all of these are certain, but they are starting to look inevitable.
No change in the standings since yesterday, but everyone took a hit: The overall is worst since Jan. 7; DARKO, PER, and DQ with largest errors of the season.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2026 3:42 pm
by Crow
I was highest in contest on Bulls. Pretty high on Mavs. Obviously did not go like that.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2026 3:11 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.64 8.35 .54 dtka 7.33 9.14 .42
Ebet 6.82 8.54 .52 WShr 7.42 9.93 .34
EExp 6.95 8.79 .46 eWin 7.42 9.49 .38
DRKO 6.99 8.38 .51 perW 7.63 10.07 .32
bpmW 7.06 8.97 .44 25pr 7.76 10.24 .30
Mgoo 7.13 9.20 .42 Crow 7.83 9.62 .40
Walr 7.18 8.83 .45 medi 8.08 9.90 .40
knar 7.21 8.73 .46 KPel 8.47 10.44 .32
avgA 7.22 9.11 .43 DQin 9.17 11.62 .25
DARKO in free fall, has lost the RMSE lead; still leading at 2.3 < e < 5.8 , bet-mgm everywhere else.
Last year at this time, bmgm was last and 2.36 off the lead; this year's bottom 3 were all upper 1/3.
UPDATE Mar. 5 -- The order hardly changes, but nearly everyone is at or very near their largest errors yet.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.72 8.56 .54 dtka 7.51 9.31 .43
Ebet 6.87 8.76 .52 WShr 7.57 10.12 .34
EExp 7.19 9.04 .46 eWin 7.71 9.75 .38
bpmW 7.20 9.17 .44 perW 7.79 10.34 .32
DRKO 7.22 8.63 .50 25pr 8.04 10.48 .30
Mgoo 7.30 9.44 .42 Crow 8.08 9.87 .39
Walr 7.33 9.06 .45 medi 8.19 10.14 .39
avgA 7.36 9.34 .42 KPel 8.68 10.72 .31
knar 7.42 8.91 .47 DQin 9.29 11.81 .25
Now at 8 consecutive days with the avg-of-all getting worse.
UPDATE Mar. 6 -- bmgm with their biggest lead so far
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.68 8.51 .54 eWin 7.66 9.72 .38
. perW 7.78 10.31 .32
Ebet 6.89 8.72 .52
. 25pr 7.97 10.45 .30
bpmW 7.09 9.13 .45 medi 8.03 10.05 .40
DRKO 7.15 8.60 .51 Crow 8.05 9.81 .40
EExp 7.18 9.01 .46
Mgoo 7.18 9.41 .42
Walr 7.22 9.00 .46 KPel 8.54 10.66 .32
avgA 7.28 9.30 .43
knar 7.33 8.87 .47
dtka 7.41 9.27 .43
WShr 7.50 10.09 .34 DQin 9.24 11.78 .25
We got better.
avgA - EExp is closest in 3 weeks.
UPDATE Mar. 9 -- leader error is highest since mid-Nov.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.80 8.60 .53 dtka 7.46 9.33 .43
Ebet 6.90 8.78 .52 eWin 7.61 9.72 .38
bpmW 7.11 9.16 .45 WShr 7.65 10.14 .34
EExp 7.17 9.09 .45 perW 7.76 10.34 .32
Mgoo 7.26 9.45 .42 25pr 8.10 10.52 .30
DRKO 7.26 8.70 .50 Crow 8.16 9.97 .39
Walr 7.29 9.08 .45 medi 8.19 10.24 .38
knar 7.31 8.86 .48 KPel 8.60 10.70 .32
avgA 7.32 9.36 .42 DQin 9.38 11.83 .25
UPDATE Mar. 10 -- bad night for top 2
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.90 8.64 .53 eWin 7.57 9.71 .38
Ebet 6.98 8.82 .51 WShr 7.62 10.12 .34
bpmW 7.08 9.15 .45 perW 7.73 10.33 .32
EExp 7.19 9.11 .45
DRKO 7.19 8.66 .50 25pr 8.02 10.50 .30
Mgoo 7.24 9.44 .42 Crow 8.18 9.98 .38
Walr 7.24 9.08 .45 medi 8.24 10.29 .37
knar 7.27 8.82 .48
avgA 7.31 9.36 .42 KPel 8.67 10.75 .31
dtka 7.38 9.32 .42 DQin 9.35 11.83 .25
-- Mar. 11
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.96 8.79 .52 eWin 7.72 9.84 .37
Ebet 7.07 8.96 .50 WShr 7.75 10.29 .33
bpmW 7.18 9.30 .44 perW 7.85 10.42 .31
DRKO 7.28 8.82 .49
EExp 7.32 9.24 .44 25pr 8.18 10.69 .28
knar 7.37 8.97 .47 Crow 8.25 10.13 .37
Mgoo 7.37 9.58 .41 medi 8.35 10.45 .36
Walr 7.37 9.24 .44
avgA 7.42 9.52 .41 KPel 8.74 10.90 .30
dtka 7.49 9.48 .41 DQin 9.42 12.00 .24
Largest error of the year for bmgm, DARKO, avgA, and the bottom 4.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2026 5:02 am
by Crow
One month to go.
A 0.3 difference in average error would be a 9 win differential across the remaining schedule. Changes of that size are probably possible. About 275 wins are still to be distributed.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2026 1:06 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.91 8.77 .53 eWin 7.76 9.85 .38
Ebet 6.98 8.95 .51 WShr 7.76 10.36 .33
bpmW 7.11 9.33 .44 perW 7.79 10.43 .32
EExp 7.26 9.27 .45
DRKO 7.32 8.86 .50 Crow 8.23 10.15 .38
Walr 7.35 9.28 .45 medi 8.27 10.47 .37
Mgoo 7.37 9.60 .42 25pr 8.36 10.80 .28
avgA 7.38 9.55 .42
knar 7.45 9.02 .48 KPel 8.67 10.94 .30
dtka 7.57 9.51 .42 DQin 9.43 12.07 .24
Biggest err of the season for DRKO, knar, eWin, DQin
UPDATE Mar. 16
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 6.86 8.67 .53 dtka 7.60 9.45 .43
Ebet 6.95 8.83 .52 eWin 7.70 9.69 .40
bpmW 7.07 9.23 .45 perW 7.72 10.25 .34
EExp 7.20 9.17 .46 WShr 7.82 10.32 .33
avgA 7.36 9.46 .42 Crow 8.21 10.06 .38
Mgoo 7.37 9.46 .43 medi 8.23 10.41 .37
DRKO 7.37 8.79 .50 25pr 8.43 10.79 .28
Walr 7.38 9.21 .45 KPel 8.58 10.83 .31
knar 7.42 8.91 .49 DQin 9.43 12.02 .24
One week ago, there were 9 entries within .50 of the lead; today there are 3.
Darko again with a worst day.
UPDATE Mar. 19 -- the good news is : Walrus and KPel do Not have their worst errors of the season.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
bmgm 7.06 8.89 .52 perW 7.95 10.51 .32
Ebet 7.14 9.06 .51 eWin 7.98 9.97 .38
bpmW 7.30 9.46 .44 WShr 8.00 10.55 .32
EExp 7.45 9.39 .45
avgA 7.62 9.71 .41 medi 8.36 10.60 .37
Walr 7.62 9.42 .44 Crow 8.51 10.31 .37
Mgoo 7.62 9.73 .41 25pr 8.65 11.02 .27
knar 7.65 9.17 .47 KPel 8.73 11.04 .30
DRKO 7.74 9.08 .48
dtka 7.76 9.66 .42 DQin 9.60 12.27 .23
