APBRmetrics

Holmgren usage with starters and with subs will be interesting. Assuming it is higher than for those currently filling his spot, the marginal difference with probably come out the usage by Dort and Giddey. When with subs, it can come out of anywhere but Poku and Omoruyi should probably lower theirs, willingly or not. There is less usage / role for Tre Mann if on court with Holmgren. Mann is probably next in line for a trade.

Compared only to the top 6 teams on SRS, which are the Thunder most like at factor level? A quick assessment is the Griz.

https://twitter.com/tvbassine/status/16 ... 94752?s=20

Thunder skinny. Way out of norm and best teams.

How much test will Saric get? 200 minutes is different than 500. I hope it is the latter.

SGA- Saric - Holmgren (or Holmgren PF - Saric C) might be interesting. SGA- 1-2 of several SGs - at least 2 of Williams - Saric - Holmgren would give a versatile set of lineup options... if refuse to look for or fail to find a big minute preferred one. They'll likely not really consider a lineup with all 3 of K Williams, Saric and Holmgren... but I would.

2 biggest Thunder factor problems are getting to FT line and defensive rebounding.

Dort, very low on defensive rebounding. Giddey, very low on getting to FT line. Jalen Williams somewhat below average at both.

Holmgren will probably help but they could use more help.

Saric outstanding on both in game 1 for Thunder but nothing special on either for career.

Omoruyi is above average getting to FT line but very weak defensive rebounding. Jaylin Williams pretty strong defensive rebounding but below average getting to FT line. K Williams has his strengths but he is quite weak on both of these factors. So is Wiggins. No one else on current bench is strong on either. Some new help, specific help that fits with specific lineups is certainly needed... on roster and in games. With these strengths and preferably without offsetting weaknesses.

Awful starting lineup again. Not ready to play again. First stint -64pts / 48 min. Again.

Winnable game effectively lost by -8 in first 6 minutes.

All of Jaylin William's positive 5 man lineups in 10 most used to not have Dort, except the smallest one (at 7 minutes).

But for all their minutes together, JWill and Dort are the smallest positive.

Worst pair in 10 most common? With Giddey at -8pts / 100p.

Best bigger minute quad with JWill? There isn't a good big minute one, but there are 2 modest minute ones with JDub, Wiggins and at least one of SGA or Giddey. They were used less than 20% of his total time.

Great with I Joe, in the 30% of the time he plays with him.

Super careful concentrated lineups have a good chance for better than current results but sloppy rando lineup management produces many negative results for large amounts of time.

Back to a tie for 11th/12th place in West. A Laker win Sunday would push it to 12th/13th. Blazer win would push as well. A combo of those wins and the Thunder will be in 13th place. Two losses by them and they'll be in sole possession of 11th.

11th to 13th matters some for both playoff contention and ping pong ball contention. But still a pretty long way to go.

I Joe with biggest Darko PM improvement since start of season, 3.5X of SGA. Giddey with 9th largest improvement and stays 9th on team for DPM. Poku with biggest decline of those currently on team. Dieng, a tick lower now.

Giddey worst on team on non-boxscore PM at -0.8. Saric the best at +1. Almost all of Giddey's non-boxscore PM estimate is on offensive side of court. Saric's non boxscore positive is both ways with a bit more from defense. Dort with a small positive non boxscore on defense and a small negative on defense. Jalen Williams mildly worse on both sides because of non box PM.

Only 4 Thunder lineups used over 80 minutes for season. Or over about 80 seconds per game. All negative, 2 mild to moderate, 2 really terrible.

605 others tried so far.


Saric, 3 games, 15 lineups, no repeats yet. Time to play with 100 of these? Maybe. (Looking like he might get 200-300 minutes.)

Trios over 300 minutes and better than +1pt / 48 min.? Just 2, both with K Williams (and a different pair of starters).

Pairs over 600 minutes and better than +2 / 48 min.? Just SGA - KWill. SGA right at +2.

SGA - Muscala was amazing but throw that away. SGA - Joe also amazing but SGA with Dort and Giddey still priorities for fairly near double the minutes despite mildly negative results.

Poku with SGA and with Dort still in top 15 on minutes despite long absence. Both were horrible. Do they go back to that? We'll eventually find out.

There are plenty of strong pairs over 200 minutes... but ZERO involve 2 typical starters. 20 over 200 minutes and +5 / 48min or better. SGA in 6, KWill 3, Joe 8, Muscala 7, Wiggins 3, Dort 4, Bazley 1, Giddey 2, JWill 2, Mann 4. So no starter but SGA in more than 20% of these strong, bigger minute pairs. Joe with the best case for more time, with almost anybody in main rotation.

Giddey down to 16th on team for raw team +/- on court and on / off. Anybody else ever mention this? Not to my knowledge. Being a part of a lot of sucky starting lineups hurts... and he is probably a pretty big part of their issues.

Roughly -64pts / 48 min. again tonight for first stint of starting lineup.

Pretty much lost in first 6 minutes, again.

Very likely headed to 13th place, unless Blazers choke big halftime lead.

Open roster spot. Could consider another look at Tony Bradley or DJ Wilson. Or Moses Brown. Who else is better to try? Justin Champagnie? David Johnson? Samanic?

Thunder are best team by win% among 6 youngest teams. 2 of the 5 others are fairly close. But Thunder are only 10th best of 16 with minutes weighted average age under 26. Marvel or not so much.

As discussed before they underperform their SRS. Currently tied will Bulls for biggest underperformance at -4 wins compared to SRS expected wins.

Starters first stint went for -88pts / 48 min. tonight.