APBRmetrics

Here's a site I recently discovered and found to be very useful
http://www.teamrankings.com/
They have a variety of team statistics http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stats/
Reasonable power rankings http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking ... ng-by-team
pre-season predictions http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nba/20 ... est-record
and more

J.E. wrote:

DSMok1 wrote:Are you (at some point) dividing back out the weight properly (i.e. creating weighted average of HAPD)?

I don't understand this part. Can you elaborate a little more? Do you happen to have RMSE for the last 10 (or more/less) years using your model (using whatever starting date you want)?

I don't have RMSE calculated, and it would not be particularly easy for me to do...

My model was basically (1*HAPD1 + a*HAPD2 + a^2*HAPD3 ... ...)/(1 + a + a^2 ... ...) = Result .

Even better would be (b*Prior + 1*HAPD1 + a*HAPD2 + a^2*HAPD3 ... ...)/(b + 1 + a + a^2 ... ...) = Result

J.E. wrote:Here's a site I recently discovered and found to be very useful
http://www.teamrankings.com/
They have a variety of team statistics http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stats/
Reasonable power rankings http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking ... ng-by-team
pre-season predictions http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nba/20 ... est-record
and more

One of the contributors to that website is David Hess (@AudacityofHoops) who I follow on twitter. Good guy.

Hollinger currently predicts the east has about a 2/3rds chance to win the title:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Sagarin's top 4 are in the east then the next 11 are in the west.

Team with winning records against the top 16: east 2, west 5.

Different metrics, different signals.

Throwing out the garbage games (records excluding the 7 teams below .333 at the moment, NJ, Toronto, Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, Sacramento, New Orleans).

Best:
Oklahoma City 11-2
Indiana 7-3
Chicago 9-4
Denver 8-4
San Antonio 11-6
Miami 9-5
LA Lakers 11-7
Orlando 6-4

Less than 60%, and plus or -2 of .500:
Utah 7-5, LA Clippers 7-6, Philly 5-5, Atlanta 6-6, Portland 7-7, Memphis 6-7, Dallas 6-8

Teams not in the bottom 7 who are struggling vs. top 23:
Phoenix 5-8
Milwaukee 5-8
Houston 5-8
Golden State 5-9
Minnesota 4-9
Cleveland 3-8
New York 2-9
Boston 1-8

Bottom 7 vs. top 23:
Toronto 6-10
Sacramento 4-13
New Jersey 3-13
Charlotte 3-13
New Orleans 3-14
Detroit 3-15
Washington 1-14

I did this by hand, so a couple may be off by a game or so. A few possibilities in the mix at the top to make things interesting for the projected powers. A few teams who are just 50/50 when you take out the garbage (note that Philly has played 8 games vs. the bottom 7...the Clippers just two...with the Clips moving to a better record vs. everyone else...Lakers only have one garbage game by the way). Some additonal perspective on the woes of Boston and New York...

Miami is -11 against NYK tonight in Miami. According to my LV ratings, it would be closer to -8 if Melo were playing.

EvanZ wrote:Miami is -11 against NYK tonight in Miami. According to my LV ratings, it would be closer to -8 if Melo were playing.

Eyballing it, RAPM says -10.5

In the last couple of days the RAPM ratings of many top teams have taken a hit. Philly has come down to earth and is not always playing with Hawes. Miami is missing Wade. Chicago is missing Deng and Gibson.
The Buck's rating should take a hit soon, in the past they gave most of Bogut's minutes to Drew Gooden.
The already not so great Charlotte Bobcats have to deal with major injuries and their two rookies (Walker, Biyombo) seem to be playing atrocious basketball. They're now ranked lower than the Wizards

J.E. wrote:

EvanZ wrote:Miami is -11 against NYK tonight in Miami. According to my LV ratings, it would be closer to -8 if Melo were playing.

Eyballing it, RAPM says -10.5

Sure, but remember Vegas and RAPM are not necessarily marching hand in hand. Looks like RAPM has NYK rated about 2.5 points lower than my most recent full-season Vegas ratings.

Speaking of Vegas lines, this looks like another good site, and maybe convenient for scraping:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nb ... e=20120127

EvanZ wrote:Speaking of Vegas lines, this looks like another good site, and maybe convenient for scraping:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nb ... e=20120127

Thanks Evan. I've been looking for a data source on college basketball over/unders. This looks to be the most complete one I've seen.

Unfortunately, they don't store the numbers in an HTML table, as far as I can tell, which makes scraping a bit more difficult (at least the way I know how to do it).

I got a scraper from someone for that site. I can ask him if it's ok for me to share it with you.

Should have put this up too yesterday, but didn't get a chance.

Games vs. teams under .333
8: Philadelphia
7: Boston, Atlanta, New York, Chicago, Indiana, Orlando
6: Cleveland, Denver
5: Oklahoma City, Portland, Minnesota, Dallas, Houston
4: Miami, Milwaukee, Utah, Phoenix, Memphis
3: New Jersey, Toronto, Washington, Charlotte, Golden State
2: LA Clippers, San Antonio, Sacramento
1: LA Lakers, Detroit, New Orleans

Jeff Fogle wrote:Throwing out the garbage games (records excluding the 7 teams below .333 at the moment...

An interesting additional perspective.

Crow, it's all part of my "let's be careful giving too much credit to the Sixers just because they keep crushing patsies" crusade (lol). If they flipped schedules with several teams, I don't think they'd rank top four or five in so many different places. They sure do go for the jugular against bad teams though....

Some people will question / disagree with throwing out the bottom 7 opponents as they disagreed with my prior emphasis on play against the top 16 or top 10. There is worthwhile analysis / decent arguments on both sides of keep all the data or de-emphasize or throw some of it out debate. At the least IMO, it is an "interesting additional perspective" as I stated before.