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Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2025 6:32 pm
by knarsu3
Yeah both were predictive versions of the metrics and used the previous 3 seasons + an aging curve and some other data. They weren't the prior seasons individual metrics which probably would not do as well.
TeemoTeejay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 01, 2025 3:12 am
Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad better
I think the LEBRON or EPM over-unders cooked, altho I guess it’s like a predictive version of both more than just the metrics themselves iirc right?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2025 10:56 pm
by Crow
Thanks for the links.
Posts of these a day late initially doesn't bother me. They just weren't found. Could have looked harder perhaps. I think I looked beforehand but not after season start. Don't obviously know forgot to post from don't care or choose not to.
I'd say include them and see what they show.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2025 11:37 pm
by Mike G
Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad better
Last year, of 18 entries, DARKO finished 12th and LEBRON 17th.
They were 2.85 and 3.18, respectively, from the lead at the end.
Why should we think they do much better this time around?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2025 12:07 am
by Crow
Their performance is pretty important to me. Do not really have a guess whether it will be a strong year or not for each. Probably more likely strong, but want to
see. Not that one more season settles it. But how do they look after say 5 included seasons? Worth knowing.
If I had found them before the deadline, they would have factored to a degree into my initial baselines along with others.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2025 1:53 am
by TeemoTeejay
Mike G wrote: ↑Sun Mar 16, 2025 11:37 pm
this time around?
I checked it awhile ago for a LinkedIn post but it was awhile ago, Darko is on his Twitter and I’m pretty sure it was in the lead most of the year if not still so. My predictions were pretty in line with darkos except not being regressed to the mean whatsoever + the aging curve probably helping Darko more since going lm(metric - wins) probably didn’t make sense lol
LEBRON and EPM weren’t doing as well as that but still doing well, so and we’re beating out Vegas better on an over under basis
No clue how it’s looking now
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Mar 17, 2025 2:38 pm
by dtkavana
Mike G wrote: ↑Sun Mar 16, 2025 11:37 pm
Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad better
Last year, of 18 entries, DARKO finished 12th and LEBRON 17th.
They were 2.85 and 3.18, respectively, from the lead at the end.
Why should we think they do much better this time around?
Two years ago I won the contest, last year I finished 10th, and this year I am currently in the lead. What I am saying is that it is certainly possible that LeBron and Darko are doing much better this year. I would love to see them included.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2025 12:57 pm
by Mike G
dtka and medi are Not experiencing their biggest errors of the season.
Everyone else is, and daily.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
dtka 7.10 9.1 .49 WShr 7.89 9.8 .40
TmTj 7.12 9.3 .48 vegas 7.92 10.0 .42
avgA 7.22 9.4 .45 emin 7.95 10.2 .41
medi 7.42 10.3 .41 24pr 8.07 10.5 .32
bpmW 7.51 9.4 .45 24py 8.53 11.5 .32
DQin 7.56 9.7 .45 eWin 8.80 11.0 .25
KPel 7.69 9.2 .57 bmgm 9.19 12.0 .32
eExp 7.83 10.0 .48 perW 9.22 11.3 .22
Crow 7.86 9.9 .44
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:53 pm
by TeemoTeejay
knarsu3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 16, 2025 6:32 pm
Yeah both were predictive versions of the metrics and used the previous 3 seasons + an aging curve and some other data. They weren't the prior seasons individual metrics which probably would not do as well.
TeemoTeejay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 01, 2025 3:12 am
Pretty sure Darko would be winning and LEBRON is about where Vegas is this year or a tad better
I think the LEBRON or EPM over-unders cooked, altho I guess it’s like a predictive version of both more than just the metrics themselves iirc right?
So was it like, for the predictive versions
was it more so a time decay or less weight on early season type of deal or a regression using the year results seperately?
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2025 6:37 pm
by Crow
At minimum, LeBron and Darko can be scored and evaluated at the end of season.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 4:49 am
by Crow
Is the projection target simply current BRef projection or is there any de-regressing still going on?
If there is no de-regression, then it appears LeBron would currently be 4th at 7.39 avg error.
Baring a data entry on my part, it appears Darko would lead at 6.68 average error.
That would make the top 4 individual entries all include RAPM in some form / degree. Top 5 if you count the APBR average which includes sets with RAPM.
Every metric and entry will have error. Error caused by data noise & unforseen choices & events. Including RAPM of course but certainly not different / alone in that.
Different approaches.
Strong performance of APBR average lends some support to the concept / philosophy of using blends.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 2:49 pm
by Mike G
easy come, easy go
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
TmTj 7.09 9.2 .48 Crow 7.89 9.9 .44
dtka 7.12 9.1 .49 WShr 7.93 9.7 .40
avgA 7.23 9.4 .45 vegas 7.94 10.0 .42
medi 7.40 10.3 .41 emin 8.01 10.2 .41
bpmW 7.49 9.3 .45 24pr 8.12 10.4 .32
DQin 7.55 9.7 .44 24py 8.62 11.5 .32
KPel 7.67 9.1 .57 eWin 8.76 11.0 .24
eExp 7.82 10.0 .47 perW 9.07 11.2 .22
. bmgm 9.23 12.0 .32
Teemo now leads at e=.75 to 1.41, kavana from 1.42 to 2.09
KPel owns the higher exponents, while medi runs the low end.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2025 3:20 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 4:49 am
Is the projection target simply current BRef projection or is there any de-regressing still going on?
Strong performance of APBR average lends some support to the concept / philosophy of using blends.
1 - Yes, all season just b-r.com, but for some adjustment for their 80-game projections prior to that silly in-season 'tournament'.
2 - 'Using blends' of course defeats the purpose of trying one system against others. It's all good though; sport is fun.
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2025 6:20 pm
by TeemoTeejay
How would my results be if they were regressed to the to have the same standard deviation as dtka’s, just curious
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2025 8:22 pm
by Mike G
You'd be .10 ahead instead of just .01
If we'd kept your original slate of guesses, you'd be .17 off the lead.
And mediocre is stealthily working back into contention. Since end of Jan.:
Code: Select all
date TmTj medi diff
3-21 7.06 7.35 .29
3-14 6.95 7.34 .39
3-07 6.76 7.21 .45
2-28 6.44 6.96 .52
2-21 6.32 6.83 .51
2-14 6.38 6.92 .54
2-07 6.19 6.84 .65
1-30 5.77 6.73 .96
UPDATE Mar. 23
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
dtka 7.07 9.1 .48 Crow 7.90 9.9 .44
TmTj 7.12 9.2 .48 vegas 7.91 10.0 .41
avgA 7.27 9.3 .44 WShr 7.93 9.6 .40
medi 7.45 10.3 .40 emin 8.04 10.2 .40
bpmW 7.51 9.2 .45 24pr 8.10 10.3 .32
DQin 7.52 9.7 .44 24py 8.56 11.5 .32
KPel 7.75 9.1 .57 eWin 8.85 11.0 .24
eExp 7.79 9.9 .46 perW 9.09 11.1 .22
. bmgm 9.10 11.9 .32
TmTj held the lead continuously (other than a few days behind AvgA) for 2 months starting Jan. 15
Then dtka for 5 days, tmtj for 3, now dtka.
KPel has pulled away in the r^2 column and leads at e>2.15
Re: 2024-25 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2025 12:07 am
by Mike G
LA Clippers have won 8 of their last 9. With Kawhi this season they have 3.0 fewer TO/100 .
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 25/on-off/
Player rates from the first 61 games, and the last 9:
Code: Select all
LAC mpg TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM O-D
. 33 .559 9.3 37.1 2.2 1.9 19.0 29.6 109 110 3.0 -1
Harden 38 .655 9.3 35.1 1.8 2.2 14.5 31.6 130 112 8.1 18
. 31 .634 21.9 12.3 1.2 3.7 11.9 18.9 126 108 2.6 18
Zubac 36 .630 20.8 12.4 .3 3.1 8.7 22.7 127 111 1.3 16
. 9 .550 9.7 14.8 2.1 1.6 11.6 28.3 106 112 -.1 -6
Kawhi 28 .617 10.9 16.7 3.2 1.1 8.0 27.2 120 107 4.9 13
LAC mpg TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM O-D
. 13 .505 4.4 18.1 1.4 .4 11.0 20.0 99 121 -3.9 -22
Bogie 27 .758 10.3 18.6 .8 .8 16.2 20.0 132 114 3.6 18
. 16 .560 9.1 8.9 1.8 2.4 11.6 8.5 115 111 -.3 4
Batum 24 .763 9.1 6.3 2.1 4.3 13.8 10.6 135 110 4.3 25
. 25 .620 5.3 6.5 1.0 .5 8.0 15.1 120 115 -1.7 5
Coffey 23 .573 4.5 4.9 1.4 .0 1.4 15.1 120 117 -3.1 3
LAC mpg TS% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM O-D
. 21 .509 8.4 17.6 3.7 1.4 15.0 13.1 106 108 .5 -2
Dunn 22 .501 6.1 14.5 3.3 2.7 12.5 11.0 106 111 -.5 -5
. 23 .597 8.0 5.2 2.3 1.3 9.7 16.6 115 111 -.6 4
Jones 20 .714 7.2 1.4 .9 3.1 6.2 15.9 133 113 .9 20
. 25 .631 5.9 11.1 1.9 .5 9.7 27.2 117 113 2.9 4
Powell 8 .510 4.2 7.5 2.2 .0 8.7 22.5 110 111 -6.2 -1
mpg are min/61 and min/9 but for Bogdan Bogdanovic; first line is just in LA.
The only 2 players (Bogie and Batum) with increased TO% also have the greatest (ORtg-DRtg) upswings. Stupendously better shooting.
Harden looks better in longer/easier minutes w Kawhi. Zu hasn't suffered too much with more minutes. No backup center?
This is looking like their playoff nine. If Powell gets close to previous form after a bunch of missed games, they look like a serious contender.