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Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:17 pm
by BasketDork
Sputtering away from contention over the past month.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:56 pm
by Mike G
Yeah, but: I've gone from first to nearly last. Bos, Hou, Mia, Was, Uta keep winning. Atl, Det, Ind, LAL, Min, Phx keep on losing.
You are at least better than Vegas in both Avg Err and RMSE -- which is quite something, really.
Currently the average of our 20 guesses would be in 1st place in Avg Err and SMRE; close 2nd in RMSE.
Coincidentally, later entries are tending to rank better than those who were quicker to throw hat into ring.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:12 pm
by BasketDork
Yeah, I believe I'm a sooner rather than a later.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:28 pm
by Mike G
It's going down to the wires.
Code: Select all
4/06 RMSE avg abs err SMRE
trzu 4.47 amp5 3.79 Crow 3.17
RyRi 4.57 kmed 3.80 kmed 3.26
amp5 4.59 trzu 3.82 amp5 3.29
ncsD 4.68 Crow 3.85 shad 3.33
cali 4.69 RyRi 3.85 yoop 3.35
lnqi 4.71 BaDo 3.93 vegas 3.35
kmed 4.80 lnqi 3.94 sbs. 3.36
AnJo 4.81 sbs. 3.95 trzu 3.38
sbs. 4.83 cali 3.98 RyRi 3.39
ATCt 4.84 ncsD 3.99 BaDo 3.46
BaDo 4.86 yoop 4.00 lnqi 3.55
sndi 4.90 shad 4.01 cali 3.56
yoop 4.98 vegas 4.01 sndi 3.57
vegas 5.00 sndi 4.09 ncsD 3.60
shad 5.07 ATCt 4.11 GK5. 3.61
Crow 5.17 AnJo 4.33 ATCt 3.64
ncsB 5.20 ncsB 4.35 ncsB 3.79
jg34 5.28 GK5. 4.38 nrfo 3.81
Mike 5.44 jg34 4.41 Mike 3.81
taco 5.50 Mike 4.42 jg34 3.94
nrfo 5.50 nrfo 4.48 538 4.03
GK5. 5.55 taco 4.69 AnJo 4.07
538 6.10 538 4.82 taco 4.10
Code: Select all
4/07 RMSE avg abs err SMRE
trzu 4.47 kmed 3.73 Crow 3.10
RyRi 4.57 Crow 3.81 kmed 3.12
amp5 4.60 amp5 3.81 vegas 3.21
cali 4.67 BaDo 3.85 BaDo 3.33
ncsD 4.68 trzu 3.85 amp5 3.37
lnqi 4.70 RyRi 3.87 sbs. 3.39
BaDo 4.78 lnqi 3.91 shad 3.42
kmed 4.79 sbs. 3.95 trzu 3.44
AnJo 4.80 ncsD 3.95 RyRi 3.46
sbs. 4.81 vegas 3.95 lnqi 3.47
ATCt 4.84 cali 3.98 yoop 3.51
If we think of these 3 measures as silver-gold-bronze -- average absolute error being the main prize -- we could weight them
2-3-1 and take the avg, to arrive at a single winner.
With that weighting, we get
Code: Select all
3.98 kmed 4.26 shad
3.99 trzu 4.27 sndi
4.00 amp5 4.29 yoop
4.04 RyRi 4.32 ATCt
4.07 BaDo 4.40 AnJo
4.10 lnqi 4.53 ncsB
4.12 ncsD 4.59 jg34
4.13 Crow 4.60 Mike
4.14 sbs. 4.60 GK5.
4.15 cali 4.68 nrfo
4.17 vegas 4.85 taco
. 5.10 538
Weighted
1-1-1, the top 5 are unchanged, kmed with a bigger margin.
My dog isn't in the hunt, and I don't object to seeing 2 or 3 co-winners.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:50 pm
by shadow
538 might want to rethink switching to a 100% BPM based model from their previous BPM/RPM blend.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 7:54 pm
by Crow
Yeah they should. Go back to equal weight or remove BPM altogether. May substitute in PT-PM or Dredge
RMSE likes me less than the other two. Will have to review variance detail after finish.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:01 am
by Mike G
Weighted 2-3-1
Code: Select all
wtd sum RMSE AvgErr SMRE
3.98 trzu 4.43 3.85 3.48
4.02 kmed 4.81 3.77 3.20
4.04 amp5 4.61 3.86 3.45
4.07 RyRi 4.56 3.92 3.53
4.08 lnqi 4.64 3.90 3.48
4.09 BaDo 4.79 3.87 3.35
4.12 ncsD 4.70 3.95 3.48
4.14 cali 4.64 3.98 3.61
4.14 Crow 5.05 3.84 3.22
4.14 vegas 4.93 3.93 3.21
4.18 sbs. 4.79 4.00 3.49
4.24 yoop 5.02 4.00 3.43
4.30 sndi 4.95 4.10 3.59
4.33 shad 5.07 4.10 3.54
4.37 AnJo 4.79 4.25 3.88
4.37 ATCt 4.85 4.22 3.87
4.55 Mike 5.30 4.33 3.71
4.56 ncsB 5.20 4.37 3.81
4.57 jg34 5.26 4.36 3.84
4.59 GK5. 5.52 4.33 3.52
4.76 nrfo 5.54 4.54 3.84
4.84 taco 5.47 4.67 4.06
5.11 538 6.12 4.82 3.95
4-11
Same ordering scheme -- 2.3.1 -- but relative to the prediction of 'regressed 2016 pythagorean wins'.
Code: Select all
PyR-xyz RMSE AvEr smre xyz
1.84 avg 4.56 3.82 3.34 3.99
1.81 trzu 4.44 3.89 3.55 4.01
1.81 kmed 4.87 3.75 3.11 4.02
1.79 cali 4.67 3.86 3.29 4.03
1.76 lnqi 4.78 3.88 3.22 4.07
1.75 BaDo 4.88 3.82 3.22 4.07
1.67 amp5 4.77 3.97 3.48 4.16
1.66 ncsD 4.80 3.98 3.45 4.16
1.63 vegas 5.00 3.96 3.26 4.19
1.61 Crow 5.08 3.93 3.32 4.21
1.60 RyRi 4.69 4.08 3.72 4.22
1.56 sbs. 4.89 4.09 3.54 4.26
1.51 yoop 5.04 4.09 3.57 4.32
1.46 sndi 5.01 4.17 3.64 4.36
1.43 AnJo 4.90 4.25 3.83 4.40
1.34 shad 5.20 4.25 3.75 4.48
1.33 ATCt 5.05 4.32 3.91 4.49
1.30 Mike 5.40 4.27 3.56 4.53
1.27 jg34 5.34 4.33 3.63 4.55
1.11 ncsB 5.30 4.54 4.07 4.72
1.07 GK5. 5.64 4.51 3.75 4.76
0.94 nrfo 5.74 4.65 3.92 4.89
0.86 taco 5.59 4.79 4.21 4.96
0.49 538 6.28 5.05 4.28 5.33
0.00 16PyR 6.62 5.59 4.94 5.82
Note
avg does not lead in any category. It's the avg of our 20 active entries, not incl. 538, AnJo, or Vegas.
4-12
Code: Select all
Py-xyz 231 RMSE AvEr smre xyz
1.78 kmed 4.97 3.81 3.12 4.08
1.77 trzu 4.52 3.96 3.60 4.09
1.75 cali 4.76 3.93 3.33 4.11
1.74 avg 4.66 3.96 3.51 4.12
1.74 BaDo 4.97 3.86 3.20 4.12
1.67 lnqi 4.89 4.00 3.34 4.19
1.57 amp5 4.88 4.11 3.64 4.29
1.57 Crow 5.16 4.01 3.42 4.29
1.57 ncsD 4.90 4.11 3.63 4.29
1.54 yoop 5.08 4.09 3.54 4.33
1.53 vegas 5.11 4.10 3.44 4.33
1.51 RyRi 4.80 4.22 3.87 4.35
1.47 sbs. 5.00 4.23 3.70 4.40
1.40 AnJo 4.99 4.32 3.83 4.46
1.36 sndi 5.14 4.31 3.79 4.50
1.29 Mike 5.47 4.30 3.60 4.57
1.25 shad 5.27 4.39 3.93 4.61
1.24 ATCt 5.16 4.46 4.05 4.63
1.21 jg34 5.45 4.43 3.73 4.65
1.02 ncsB 5.38 4.68 4.24 4.84
1.00 GK5. 5.72 4.62 3.86 4.86
0.87 nrfo 5.82 4.75 4.06 4.99
0.77 taco 5.71 4.92 4.37 5.09
0.45 538 6.38 5.13 4.35 5.41
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:46 am
by Mike G
Final tallies
Code: Select all
4/13 RMSE avg abs err SMRE
trzu 4.54 kmed 3.84 BaDo 3.03
cali 4.71 BaDo 3.87 kmed 3.22
RyRi 4.76 cali 3.93 yoop 3.30
ncsD 4.81 yoop 4.00 vegas 3.36
amp5 4.81 trzu 4.00 lnqi 3.42
lnqi 4.86 lnqi 4.00 cali 3.42
AnJo 4.91 vegas 4.06 ncsD 3.49
kmed 4.94 ncsD 4.07 amp5 3.49
BaDo 4.95 amp5 4.07 Crow 3.52
sbs. 4.96 Crow 4.10 Mike 3.57
yoop 5.05 RyRi 4.18 sndi 3.57
vegas 5.09 sbs. 4.22 trzu 3.60
sndi 5.10 AnJo 4.23 AnJo 3.67
ATCt 5.12 sndi 4.27 sbs. 3.70
Crow 5.17 Mike 4.33 jg34 3.75
shad 5.23 shad 4.40 RyRi 3.77
ncsB 5.32 ATCt 4.40 GK5. 3.88
jg34 5.41 jg34 4.43 nrfo 3.90
Mike 5.49 GK5. 4.60 shad 3.96
GK5. 5.65 ncsB 4.60 ATCt 3.99
taco 5.69 nrfo 4.73 538 4.06
nrfo 5.84 taco 4.93 ncsB 4.09
538 6.32 538 5.07 taco 4.38
Note we have 3 different winners. All 3 are 8th or worse in another column.
Weighting them 2-3-1 respectively, we get this composite:
Code: Select all
xyz 3-2-1 RMSE AvgErr smre
4.09 BaDo 4.95 3.87 3.03
4.11 kmed 4.94 3.84 3.22
4.11 avg 4.63 3.95 3.53
4.11 cali 4.71 3.93 3.42
4.11 trzu 4.54 4.00 3.60
4.19 lnqi 4.86 4.00 3.42
4.22 ncsD 4.81 4.07 3.49
4.22 amp5 4.81 4.07 3.49
4.23 yoop 5.05 4.00 3.30
4.29 vegas 5.09 4.06 3.36
4.31 RyRi 4.76 4.18 3.77
4.36 Crow 5.17 4.10 3.52
4.36 AnJo 4.91 4.23 3.67
4.38 sbs. 4.96 4.22 3.70
4.43 sndi 5.10 4.27 3.57
4.57 ATCt 5.12 4.40 3.99
4.59 Mike 5.49 4.33 3.57
4.60 shad 5.23 4.40 3.96
4.65 jg34 5.41 4.43 3.75
4.76 ncsB 5.32 4.60 4.09
4.83 GK5. 5.65 4.60 3.88
4.96 nrfo 5.84 4.73 3.90
5.09 taco 5.69 4.93 4.38
5.32 538 6.32 5.07 4.06
5.87 16PyR 6.64 5.63 5.05
Weighting the columns 1-1-1 or 1-2-1, BaDo wins by bigger margins. Weighted 2-2-1, he barely outdoes trzu.
Congrats to the Bearded Geek, BasketDork !
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:30 pm
by caliban
RMSE 2nd place two years in a row is like going 30-11 second half of the season but missing the playoffs.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:20 pm
by Mike G
On Feb. 3, tarrazu hit 2.87 Avg Err.
The best at the end of the season -- 3.84 (kmedved) -- was 5th worst back then
In the last 3 days, we had 3 different composite leaders.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:41 pm
by permaximum
SMRE shouldn't have any weight. It doesn't even make sense especially in this "NBA team win projection contest". This is not dart.
Also, using actual wins is a must.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:05 pm
by tarrazu
permaximum wrote:SMRE shouldn't have any weight. In doesn't even make sense especially in this "NBA team win projection contest". This is not dart.
Also, using actual wins is a must.
Pretty biased obviously
, but either RMSE or RMSE/Avg Error blend seems most reasonable for the idea of projecting win totals.
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:36 pm
by bbstats
RMSE is the standard and should remain unless voted on prior to the contest
*grumbles about prior 2nd place*
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:52 pm
by kmedved
Agreed. I haven't seen a good reason to switch from RMSE yet (though the fact that I grade higher in Average Error seems like a good reason!).
Re: 2016-17 Team Win Projection Contest / Discussion
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:55 pm
by Mike G
Unless someone named Ramsey (or Ramsay or Rimsie ...) comes along to endorse RMSE, I don't know how to use it in a sentence.