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Neither the TWolves or Pelicans look like a favorable play-in matchup for Thunder at least by regular season game results. Lost to both 3-1. Closer look at opponent probably when certain or near certain.

One should expect Thunder critique here and on devoted fan forums. In the past few days it creeped onto the Oklahoman newspaper in the form of a rare halfway critical / pulled punches article by a senior columnist and an openly frustrated fan letter to the editor that got propped up for an unusual prominent display at the same time.

Are they trying 100% to win? What are they doing with these weird, hard to rationalize lineups? Do they care about making the playoffs? Do they care about the current product / fan experience? The fan letter opines negative to all the above questions.

The confusion & frustration is not universally the same but I'd say it appears pretty broad and pretty deep among fans talking.

And yet Coach D appears content to carry on as he has. Make what you want of it, he says he is staying the same for development and the long-term. Some have doubts about the attitude, some have doubts if it will be allowed to remain the same. We'll see what the next 10 days bring.

5 most used lineups all negative, with 3 being terrible to horrendous. 70% of 20 most used negative with almost all bad to much worse and all but one of the positives using a different center than the current starter.

By far best bigger minute player pairs are 8th, 11th, 17th, 19th and 20th on use. 4 of the biggest 5 negative.

10 of 13 most used trios negative with none of the 3 positives reaching +1pts / 100p. 8 of 9 biggest quads negative with 1 barely reaching +1 and only one other anywhere close to neutral.

Very poor top of rotation management.

Thunder go 4 for 30 from 3pt land and give up way too many offensive rebounds to Pacers. Lose late.

Daigneault uses 11 brand new, never used before lineups in a pretty critical game 78. 23 lineups in all. Just 6 of the choices were positive.

Thunder lose.

Can no longer break ,500. Unlikely to reach it. Less than 50 / 50 to win 40.

Likely 9 - 10 matchup with Wolves. Minnesota won regular season series 3-1.
Size inside should be to their advantage but we'll see.

Ringer article on Thunder says of SGA - Giddey:

"....their pairing is still designed to mitigate each other’s shortcomings."

The design, yeah. The reality is that it is the worst performing pair of the 10 most used. It is much better than last season and early this season but it is still negative for season.

No deep analysis of lineup management.

Thunder lose second half by 21 and lose game.

Will not reach ,500 for season.

Play-in still likely but not yet assured.

B-Ref estimates 33% chance to miss play-in. Presumably will go above 40% if Mavs win tonight.



Lineup total at 799 and still climbing. 753 last season.

The Ringer article called the Thunder the youngest team. They're second youngest by minutes weighted age to the Rockets who are about 3% younger.

The Thunder want to be called the youngest for their narrative and most folks will go along with that... but they aren't quite.

Many folks have bought the whole narrative.

Imo there are plenty of things to take exception to in that narrative, looking back, looking now and looking ahead.


Consider the exceptions or not.

Remember the voices that "expected" 3-5 titles from the first OKC generation and look out for the calls that will be coming in next 2 years.

Thunder have their 10 man rotation for next season already. The draft pick may or may not make 11. The other 7 either are deep bench or subject to trades / drops.

Details on Thunder record:

Average at home, weak on road.
Average amount of close and blowout games.
Above .500 in 2 of 7 months.
Average against East. Well below average against West, especially Pacific division.
Got a bit worse after All-Star break.

SRS down to 15th.

6 players under 200 pounds. I only checked a few but thus far nobody is higher. At the low end- play-in opponent TWolves 3. Division leader Nuggets 2.

League average is 216. Went up a pound for first gain in 13 years.

Daugneault era, year 1 to 3 trends:

Big jump on offense in year 3. All factors up but least of all efg%.

Defense, not much change in overall ranking. Defg% improved in yr 2 but lost ground in yr 3. Below average all 3 years. Defensive rebounding big slide down to next to last. Abrupt massive increase in foul rate associated with abrupt massive increase in opponent turnovers. Net effect of those 2, very little if any.

Moreyball was best in yr 1, plummeted in yr 2, recovered some in yr 3 because of shots at rim only but not back to yr 1 level overall and not much different overall than league average.

Future improvement? Probably needs to be in Moreyball, rebounding, shot defense and / or fouling. Things that either got worse or barely improved in yr 3.

Current factors are 2 small elite factors, 2 a bit above average, 4 pretty weak to very weak (including the biggest 2- efg% and defg%).

Play-in opponent shifts to Pelicans.

Lineup count ends at 807.