APBRmetrics

Celtics elite on 3 factors (including one big one, opponent efg%), average on 4, weak on one (defensive rebounding). That is pretty good. But probably not enough for title contention.

Lakers, top 6 on 5 factors (including the 2 biggest ones), 2 average, 1 weak. Bucks, top 4 on 4 factors (including the 2 biggest ones), 2 above average, 2 weak (offensive rebounding and opponents turnovers).

Blazers have a fairly weak and mostly passive defense. Their offense is very meh outside low turnovers. Well below average Moreyball and below average shooting / scoring efficiency.

Jazz bench has been so rough this season

Clippers are only team with 2 guys at or over plus 4 on RPM estimate. Davis is only plus 2.8 for Lakers. 8 other contenders with a plus 4 guy. 5 teams have a total of 4-5 2 plus guys: LAC, DEN, TOR, MIL and PHI. Lakers, Celtics and Pacers have 3. Rockets, Blazers, Heat, Mavs and Jazz just 2. 2 is very likely not enough for title. 3 would be a bit of a surprise generally over 4-5; but given LBJ's score they could do it. So 6 main contenders by this criteria.

Jazz bench...

How to use Jeff Green? Snyder has not used him in any lineup for more than 1.5 minutes per game for season. That is just ridiculous testing / management. Same for Exum and Mudiay. Ed Davis, no lineup tested much more than 1 minute per game. Niang, no lineup tested even 1 minute per game.

Typical undisciplined, chaotic coaching. Unacceptable to me.

Green works with Mudiay & Ingles and starters elsewhere. Full on bench is too much. Nothing works with Niang. Little works with Exum or Davis. Most things work with Mudiay but not Mitchell, who Snyder has put him with 60% of his time.

Need multiple trades and way more disciplined, intelligent coaching or they may end up with nothing or almost nothing achieved..

Harden's fta per game down over 50% in last 5 games. Some of that might be defensive strategy. Some of it might be his choice to just shoot it from field more. Will want to see where things are in a month.

The average regular defensive efficiency of the last 8 title winners is slightly better than 5th. The Warriors were the weakest one year at 11th.

Who is 5th or better on defensive efficiency this season? Bucks, Lakers, Sixers, Nuggets and Raptors.

Who, among potential contenders, are worse than 11th? Rockets, Mavs. Blazers, if they count. Heat right at 11th.


On offense the average efficiency of the last 8 tittle winners was a bit better than 4th, with 8th being the worst.

This season so far, the 4 best are Mavs, Bucks, Rockets and Wizards. Ignore the Wizards and the next best is the Lakers. Contenders worse than 8th? Raptors, Sixers, Nuggets, Jazz (and Blazers).

Who meets both criteria? Bucks, Lakers (almost), That's it.

Clippers meet neither but they are close on both. Same deal with Celtics. No one else close on both.

Raptors have done very poorly against top teams this season.

Clippers have 3 elite factors (including shot defense), 2 average, 3 bottom 10-11.

Moreyball only about average. Strong on fts, average on shots at rim, weak rate from 3.

Wizards start 5-8, then have gone 3-12. 1-7 in last 8 games. So have gone from well below average to worse then even worse.

I'd say it is pretty clear the Bucks, Lakers and Clippers are top 4 teams. The fourth is not clear. 6-8 teams have some argument for that or close.

Bucks and Lakers have 2 major factor weaknesses. Fortunately for them a quick check does not show any contender super high in matchups on both those weakness. Clippers have 3 main weaknesses. Lakers have very good factor matchups on 2. I only checked for really strong factor matchups to weaknesses.

Try Josh Richardson off the bench? I would at least try awhile to see what happens. Will he shoot more 3s that way? They need more 3s.

The Kanter experience appears positive.

Jazz 5-0 recently against fairly weak to terrible teams. Tougher in next 3.