Based on 82games.com data, if their opponent was upper third on any of 11 criteria, the opponents win 55% or more of the time.
Generally close to .500 against average and below average on specific stat teams but with a handful of cases with better win%s.
Based on matchup data, the Thunder perimeter wins big on points but only slightly more than the big loss at PF & C.
Part of this shot distribution but it is also player quality.
Matchup data is of unclear quality but it appears Giddey scores more against bigger defenders but also gives up more against bigger guys, with only modest differences in net matchup results. Team results however appear to be much better as he matches up with bigger players with Giddey at PF looking far better than at SG.
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
A little more sub-lineup detail:
7 of 8 most used quads were -4 to -18 pts / 100p.
None of the 14 most used trios were better than +1.
Which will be positive or strong positive next season?
Only one of 12 most used player pairs was better than +2.5. SGA - Joe was +7, though it was great then ok and finished very bad. Minutes didn't go up after initial success. They mostly went down. Why did the minutes get cut by 1/3rd in February when it was still performing great? Why didn't minutes go up or way up? SGA missed a few games but that isn't a full answer. Try harder next season? I dunno. Watch tape again and decide.
All 3 pairs of SGA, Giddey and Dort were quite bad on average of final 3 regular season games and pretty bad on average in the 2 play-in games. Question the core? Nah, not Coach D and probably not Presti, at least anytime soon.
SGA Dort Joe, Giddey Dort JDub and SGA Dort JDub are all fractionally positive. About 1 pt better than SGA Giddey Dort.
Giddey Joe JDub was about 3.5 pts better but far more lightly tested. Does that trio get more minutes next season? If not, why not?
A 5 trio rotation on the perimeter using those just named above is easy to construct and has no need and little justification for anything else for general use. My time allocations among them would be different than Coach D's, probably somewhat favoring the best but least used raw trio (unless adjusted lineup data is notably different). But the main point would be eliminating most of the rando trios.
After consolidating perimeter units as suggested, the focus turns to the interior combinations, with each other and with each of the perimeter trios. Pick 4-6 interior duos to highlight and try with most of the perimeter trios 50-150 minutes each then re-evaluate. That would be my plan. The non-Giddey lineups will need extra focus on rebounding. The non SG lineups may need extra big man usage. The non Dort lineups will need the premier rim protection. The non JDub or Joe lineups will need the best available shooting.
The main 2 bigs to play are KWill and Chet but unknown yet if it should be mainly together or apart. JWill, JRE, Dieng, Poku and others on roster or to be added are also options. Some should play modestly, some probably hardly at all in long-run. But most or all should an early 100-200 minute opportunity to show. My initial thinking is emphasize 4 pairs: KWill / Chet, Dieng / JWill, Dieng / Chet and KWill / JWill. Dieng gets the call because of the investment but he has to continue to improve to get bigger minutes than others
JRE or Wiggins at PF could get more use if 1 or more of these 4 doesn't perform. Poku, I dunno. Depends how he looks. Probably not but door not totally closed.
We'll see how close they manage first half of season minutes to my outline. This plan calls for high focus on 20-30 lineups. It is tremendously different than what Coach D did this season. Even if you accepted / tolerated that approach last season, do you want the same for most of next season? I sure don't. For the rebuild to advance, lineup management should advance to a new phase.
20-30 main lineups is still a lot, too many to fully test and stay with significantly. Eventually, you'd want a priority 5-7. But far more manageable and promising a start than using 800+.
7 of 8 most used quads were -4 to -18 pts / 100p.
None of the 14 most used trios were better than +1.
Which will be positive or strong positive next season?
Only one of 12 most used player pairs was better than +2.5. SGA - Joe was +7, though it was great then ok and finished very bad. Minutes didn't go up after initial success. They mostly went down. Why did the minutes get cut by 1/3rd in February when it was still performing great? Why didn't minutes go up or way up? SGA missed a few games but that isn't a full answer. Try harder next season? I dunno. Watch tape again and decide.
All 3 pairs of SGA, Giddey and Dort were quite bad on average of final 3 regular season games and pretty bad on average in the 2 play-in games. Question the core? Nah, not Coach D and probably not Presti, at least anytime soon.
SGA Dort Joe, Giddey Dort JDub and SGA Dort JDub are all fractionally positive. About 1 pt better than SGA Giddey Dort.
Giddey Joe JDub was about 3.5 pts better but far more lightly tested. Does that trio get more minutes next season? If not, why not?
A 5 trio rotation on the perimeter using those just named above is easy to construct and has no need and little justification for anything else for general use. My time allocations among them would be different than Coach D's, probably somewhat favoring the best but least used raw trio (unless adjusted lineup data is notably different). But the main point would be eliminating most of the rando trios.
After consolidating perimeter units as suggested, the focus turns to the interior combinations, with each other and with each of the perimeter trios. Pick 4-6 interior duos to highlight and try with most of the perimeter trios 50-150 minutes each then re-evaluate. That would be my plan. The non-Giddey lineups will need extra focus on rebounding. The non SG lineups may need extra big man usage. The non Dort lineups will need the premier rim protection. The non JDub or Joe lineups will need the best available shooting.
The main 2 bigs to play are KWill and Chet but unknown yet if it should be mainly together or apart. JWill, JRE, Dieng, Poku and others on roster or to be added are also options. Some should play modestly, some probably hardly at all in long-run. But most or all should an early 100-200 minute opportunity to show. My initial thinking is emphasize 4 pairs: KWill / Chet, Dieng / JWill, Dieng / Chet and KWill / JWill. Dieng gets the call because of the investment but he has to continue to improve to get bigger minutes than others
JRE or Wiggins at PF could get more use if 1 or more of these 4 doesn't perform. Poku, I dunno. Depends how he looks. Probably not but door not totally closed.
We'll see how close they manage first half of season minutes to my outline. This plan calls for high focus on 20-30 lineups. It is tremendously different than what Coach D did this season. Even if you accepted / tolerated that approach last season, do you want the same for most of next season? I sure don't. For the rebuild to advance, lineup management should advance to a new phase.
20-30 main lineups is still a lot, too many to fully test and stay with significantly. Eventually, you'd want a priority 5-7. But far more manageable and promising a start than using 800+.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Presti said: “Offensively I think there’s room for us to get more physical. You can see that at the free throw line. We were last in the league of getting into the bonus before our opponent. That’s not a place you want to be.”
Giddey, Dieng, Pokusevski, Mann, Waiters and K Williams all at about half league average for ft rate. On them and on Presti for picking guys that play (and / or get officiated) that way.
Bazley and Omoruyi, 2nd and 4th highest ft rates on team. Traded away. Saric, 3rd highest. Retained? Sarr near average Retained / played? JRE and Wiggins below average rates. Change coming? Retained / played?
FT rate failure is a pretty important coaching blemish.
SGA is by far lowest on team for 3pta rate. And Giddey is 2nd lowest and JDub 3rd lowest. Can you have a strong Moreyball starting lineup with all 3 in it? Not so far and probably not. Average at best so far.
Giddey, Dieng, Pokusevski, Mann, Waiters and K Williams all at about half league average for ft rate. On them and on Presti for picking guys that play (and / or get officiated) that way.
Bazley and Omoruyi, 2nd and 4th highest ft rates on team. Traded away. Saric, 3rd highest. Retained? Sarr near average Retained / played? JRE and Wiggins below average rates. Change coming? Retained / played?
FT rate failure is a pretty important coaching blemish.
SGA is by far lowest on team for 3pta rate. And Giddey is 2nd lowest and JDub 3rd lowest. Can you have a strong Moreyball starting lineup with all 3 in it? Not so far and probably not. Average at best so far.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Can you be one of lightest weight teams by design and "be physical" or expect to become such? Seems like a less than even bet. Adding very young, makes it even less likely anytime soon.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Giddey, tiny improvement on fta rate yr to yr. (50% increase in fga rate at rim did not supercharge that).
Jalen Williams, pretty major decline in fta rate from college rate.
K Williams, fta rate down 35% from previous season.
Mann down 20%. JRE up just a tiny bit. Wiggins down 20%.
Team can talk about it now and needs to because they weren't about it this season.
Jalen Williams, pretty major decline in fta rate from college rate.
K Williams, fta rate down 35% from previous season.
Mann down 20%. JRE up just a tiny bit. Wiggins down 20%.
Team can talk about it now and needs to because they weren't about it this season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis
Use and results:
From my Sept '22 lineup suggestions
Giddey JDub KW JRE JWill 0 min
G SGA. JDub Dieng JWill 0 min
G SGA Dort KW Musc 12 min +22/100p
G Mann KW Poku JWill 0 min
G Dort Baz KW Musc 0 min
G Mann Baz Poku JRE 0 min
SGA Dort Baz KW Musc 0 min
SGA Mann Baz KW Musc 0 min
SGA Dort JDub Poku Musc 0 min
SGA Dort JDub KW Musc 0 min
SGA Mann KW Baz Poku 0 min
SGA Mann Dort Dieng Musc 0 min
G JDub Dort Dieng JRE 0 min
Mann JDub KW JRE Musc 0 min
G JDub Dieng Baz Musc 0 min
Maledon Krejci Waters Poku JWill 0 min
So basically Coach D tried almost none of my suggestions and preferred over 800 others.
From my Sept '22 lineup suggestions
Giddey JDub KW JRE JWill 0 min
G SGA. JDub Dieng JWill 0 min
G SGA Dort KW Musc 12 min +22/100p
G Mann KW Poku JWill 0 min
G Dort Baz KW Musc 0 min
G Mann Baz Poku JRE 0 min
SGA Dort Baz KW Musc 0 min
SGA Mann Baz KW Musc 0 min
SGA Dort JDub Poku Musc 0 min
SGA Dort JDub KW Musc 0 min
SGA Mann KW Baz Poku 0 min
SGA Mann Dort Dieng Musc 0 min
G JDub Dort Dieng JRE 0 min
Mann JDub KW JRE Musc 0 min
G JDub Dieng Baz Musc 0 min
Maledon Krejci Waters Poku JWill 0 min
So basically Coach D tried almost none of my suggestions and preferred over 800 others.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis
From early October;
Giddey SGA K Williams Poku JRE 12 minutes / gm. 1 actual minute. +225.
JDub Mann Dort Dieng JWill 4 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
Giddey Mann Dort Muscala Bazley 16 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
JDub SGA K Williams Poku JRE 16 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
Fwiw.
Number of times the 4 best pairs in 20 most used appear in Coach D's 4 most used lineups, with all season to get there? ZERO. In my early October set of 4 based on 1 pre-season game? 3 times.
.
Giddey SGA K Williams Poku JRE 12 minutes / gm. 1 actual minute. +225.
JDub Mann Dort Dieng JWill 4 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
Giddey Mann Dort Muscala Bazley 16 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
JDub SGA K Williams Poku JRE 16 min / gm. 0 actual minutes.
Fwiw.
Number of times the 4 best pairs in 20 most used appear in Coach D's 4 most used lineups, with all season to get there? ZERO. In my early October set of 4 based on 1 pre-season game? 3 times.
.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
From December:
"Pokusevski has the worst raw +/- per 48 minutes of any player in league with 500 plus minutes."
He finishes 7th worst in this group.
"Pokusevski has the worst raw +/- per 48 minutes of any player in league with 500 plus minutes."
He finishes 7th worst in this group.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
From late January:
"DBPM estimate for Dort is worst on team. D-DRIP 2nd worst. D-RAPM 6th best but luck adjusted it falls to 12th. D-Efg% is pretty good but opponent turnover and foul factors are negative (with him being 6th highest in league on raw foul total) and impact on defensive rebounding is very poor in a sea of such teammates."
Dort fInishes 2nd worst on team for DBPM. FWIW.
"DBPM estimate for Dort is worst on team. D-DRIP 2nd worst. D-RAPM 6th best but luck adjusted it falls to 12th. D-Efg% is pretty good but opponent turnover and foul factors are negative (with him being 6th highest in league on raw foul total) and impact on defensive rebounding is very poor in a sea of such teammates."
Dort fInishes 2nd worst on team for DBPM. FWIW.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Dort, 13th on team on D-DRiP.
3rd on team on EPM.
435th in league on Darko D-PM.
7th and 8th on team according to DRAPM and luck adjusted DRAPM.
EPM is the outlier. (Along with players.)
3rd on team on EPM.
435th in league on Darko D-PM.
7th and 8th on team according to DRAPM and luck adjusted DRAPM.
EPM is the outlier. (Along with players.)