In the West, 5 teams had better offensive efficiency than Thunder and 9 worse. Same with defensive efficiency.
Will take improvement anywhere. Some needed, probably more than some to make a big difference.
Rank next season will depend on off-season and next season moves, improvement relative to improvement of others, game coaching, relative injury impact, "luck".
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
From "The Art of Presti" article at No Ceilings in fall 2022:
"There were still some holes left to be filled, but it quickly started to look like the Thunder were on the verge of building something intriguing for years to come. "
started to look like...
on the verge...
something intriguing...
Still to come... making playoffs, winning a series, going beyond that.
Til they do first, they are below average Til they do second they are not above average. Til they do third, they are not special.
"There were still some holes left to be filled, but it quickly started to look like the Thunder were on the verge of building something intriguing for years to come. "
started to look like...
on the verge...
something intriguing...
Still to come... making playoffs, winning a series, going beyond that.
Til they do first, they are below average Til they do second they are not above average. Til they do third, they are not special.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
SGA Giddey Dort Jalen Williams as a quad ended up +1 pt / 100p. Decent but not good or very good. Slight matchup edges on ftas and steals. Small losses on rebounding, assistmaking. 3pt volume was a bigger gap, while 3pt fg% gap was slight.
Will want to see how much this group improves with Chet.
Only used 8.5 minutes per game on average for season. Does it go to 20 minutes plus? For all the support for these particular players, it might be expected. Better alternatives by the numbers but Coach D does not follow the numbers that much.
Will want to see how much this group improves with Chet.
Only used 8.5 minutes per game on average for season. Does it go to 20 minutes plus? For all the support for these particular players, it might be expected. Better alternatives by the numbers but Coach D does not follow the numbers that much.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Former house of Presti / now GMs performance to date:
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 70245?s=20
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 70245?s=20
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Helping the Nuggets in near term could easy end up having consequences in a future playoff series.
But maybe that 2029 pick helps Presti's third decade.
But maybe that 2029 pick helps Presti's third decade.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Looking at player and team results by presumed position at 82games, I have these comments:
Thunder have a lot of success playing players "up" 1-2 positions from surface impression of standard positions.
This includes wings playing PF and may reduce intention and / or need to draft a PF, if style of play continues as it probably will.
Pokusevski at center was a horrendous disaster and probably should not be continued. Jaylin Williams at Center was bad. He will certainly move back on depth chart and probably should move below #2. K Williams should be #2 by the results.
Muscala was moved out because of age most of all, draft pick fever and defense. Still a slight chance they might bring him back, especially if Saric is not retained. He should be in my start winning to a meaningful level now thinking but probably won't.
I don't what position the Thunder are targeting as top priority to upgrade. There are incumbent logjams everywhere. Not necessary logjams by results though. They could potentially use a better backup 1, backup 2, starting or backup 3, backup 5.
To take a starting PF would really require a lot of adjustment to other player utilization. That might be wise in long-run, but it could mean moving some guys down in rotation or our altogether.
A lot of Thunder's future depends on how rigid current design thinking remains.
The Thunder are using assets for a 11+ deep rotation. For playoff contention, the first 6-8 are usually almost all of the impact story. Consolidation trades are imo highly desired / necessary but don't seem that likely anytime soon.
Last season they did not have any player remotely close to being the #2 impact guy on a real contender. They probably won't see that next season either but several guys are hoped to have that potential someday. One better get there in 2-3 years or the need for one from trade or free agent markets will increase.
Thunder have a lot of success playing players "up" 1-2 positions from surface impression of standard positions.
This includes wings playing PF and may reduce intention and / or need to draft a PF, if style of play continues as it probably will.
Pokusevski at center was a horrendous disaster and probably should not be continued. Jaylin Williams at Center was bad. He will certainly move back on depth chart and probably should move below #2. K Williams should be #2 by the results.
Muscala was moved out because of age most of all, draft pick fever and defense. Still a slight chance they might bring him back, especially if Saric is not retained. He should be in my start winning to a meaningful level now thinking but probably won't.
I don't what position the Thunder are targeting as top priority to upgrade. There are incumbent logjams everywhere. Not necessary logjams by results though. They could potentially use a better backup 1, backup 2, starting or backup 3, backup 5.
To take a starting PF would really require a lot of adjustment to other player utilization. That might be wise in long-run, but it could mean moving some guys down in rotation or our altogether.
A lot of Thunder's future depends on how rigid current design thinking remains.
The Thunder are using assets for a 11+ deep rotation. For playoff contention, the first 6-8 are usually almost all of the impact story. Consolidation trades are imo highly desired / necessary but don't seem that likely anytime soon.
Last season they did not have any player remotely close to being the #2 impact guy on a real contender. They probably won't see that next season either but several guys are hoped to have that potential someday. One better get there in 2-3 years or the need for one from trade or free agent markets will increase.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
The Thunder's minute weighted average age was under 23 this season. It won't naturally rise to 26 for 3-4 years. 26 is the absolute minimum for a title winner, or imo a true contender for such.
Either they are fine waiting at least 3-4 years for true contention (the final years of SGA's current contract)- or they plan to ignore history again- or they will need to make age adjustment engineering a major component of roster overall in spite of the draft pick conveyor belt.
Either they are fine waiting at least 3-4 years for true contention (the final years of SGA's current contract)- or they plan to ignore history again- or they will need to make age adjustment engineering a major component of roster overall in spite of the draft pick conveyor belt.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Does the failure of Pokusevski at Center at his current age and weight portend anything about team results with Holmgren at Center near team at currently similar weight and even younger? I dunno. There is a talent gap. How big I dunno.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Keep Sarr on roster? I probably wouldn't. Keep Butler? I would.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
At start of 2025-26 season, SGA will be 27, Jalen Williams 24, Giddey & Holmgren 23. Probably still too young then to win a title.
So probably build for 2026-27 or beyond unless they can get big time vets before then. 2026-27 is pushing it with SGA in last season of contract.
It is possible that the next peak is post Shai or way past.
So probably build for 2026-27 or beyond unless they can get big time vets before then. 2026-27 is pushing it with SGA in last season of contract.
It is possible that the next peak is post Shai or way past.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Taking Wallace, K Johnson and now Flagler... somebody or several somebodies might lose minutes or jobs.
Looks like current key players will continue to play up in position.
Overall I'd call it a small ball approach.
K Johnson, some time at 4 or 5?
Did nothing new (beyond Holmgren) so far to address awful defensive rebounding.
Looks like current key players will continue to play up in position.
Overall I'd call it a small ball approach.
K Johnson, some time at 4 or 5?
Did nothing new (beyond Holmgren) so far to address awful defensive rebounding.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
RAPM estimates (rounded):
Wallace +4
K Johnson +6
Flagler +8.
Wallace +4
K Johnson +6
Flagler +8.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
If Thunder trade Micic soon, it will probably be for draft compensation. Probably a 1st rounder 2-5 years away.
If player or players are part of return, they'll need to be good enough to let go current guys to accommodate within roster limit or good enough to exchange for current guys.
If player or players are part of return, they'll need to be good enough to let go current guys to accommodate within roster limit or good enough to exchange for current guys.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
2026-27 season might be the or near the Thunder's peak looking ahead from here... but who will be on the team? Payroll could evolve into a heightened problem by then.
They need consolidation trades but there are few at all realistic targets who are beyond rookie contracts and "proven". Going for and getting a worthy consolidation name still on rookie contract or barely on 2nd and not "blown up" yet would be hard but that strategy should probably get considerable attention.
Draft so well that such a move is not "needed"? I doubt it, but time will slowly start to tell on that.
What "is needed" to make second round or conference finals or beyond are different levels.
They need consolidation trades but there are few at all realistic targets who are beyond rookie contracts and "proven". Going for and getting a worthy consolidation name still on rookie contract or barely on 2nd and not "blown up" yet would be hard but that strategy should probably get considerable attention.
Draft so well that such a move is not "needed"? I doubt it, but time will slowly start to tell on that.
What "is needed" to make second round or conference finals or beyond are different levels.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Will Cason Wallace be the second unit PG? Will Giddey be bothered by not appearing to be a PG much?