APBRmetrics

Celtics with good season.

But... as playoffs approach Kemba has knee concerns. Smart with weak shooting on average recently. Same for other PGs. Tatum with a big year but was just average in 2 previous playoffs. Kanter meh recently.

How do they finish things?

Overall shot selection and efficiency are pretty average. How far will that carry them?

By a simple efficiency meaaure at hoopsstats.com, Bucks, Lakers and Clippers have top 6 benches. Mavs 7th. Thunder 11th, Heat 12th, Celtics 13th. Raptors 17th. Nuggets 19th. Sixers and Jazz near 25th percentile. Rockets 29th for season. 30th? Blazers.

Pace and offensive efficiency have essentially stalled at last season's levels.

Last year, pace jumped from 97.3 to 100, a 30-year high. eFG% and ORtg hit alltime highs at .524 and 110.4 respectively.
This year, eFG% takes another leap to .528, but offset by TO% rising 0.4 from last year's alltime low of 12.4
3fg%, 2fg%, and FT% are all up this year.

TO rates always start high and finish lower, esp. for rookies, who may have gotten more than usual minutes this year.

Durant, Curry, and Thompson raised league TS% by .001 last year
Warriors' ORtg is down by 10.7 this year, making league ORtg 0.36 lower.
The 21-year avg rise from alltime low in 1999 is 0.39 per year; so if the Dubs were not broken, it would likely be a normal O-Rtg uptick in the league.

Oldest teams in the league: LAL, MIl, Hou are >29.0; SAS, Uta, Por, and LAC also >1 year older than NBA avg (26.2)
Youngest: Mem (24.0), Atl, Cha, GSW, Chi, NYK, Phx, Min, and Cle are at least a year younger than avg.

Grizz are anomalous in that younger teams generally don't outperform their MOV in the win column. In fact, they were 4-7 since the allstar break, so might have lost their playoff standing in the next few games.

Spurs and Blazers would be playoff bound in the East.

Raptors average age on edge of youngest modern title winner. Lots of playoff teams (Pacers, Nuggets, Thunder, Mavs, Heat, Sixers) younger than that. Celtics way younger.

Don't care or didn't think about it? Either way, unlikely to set new mark for youngest title winner.

Some recent Hawks talk at @bballstrategy.

http://www.nba.com/article/2020/03/27/n ... mes-harden

Miscellaneous stat observations. Including: Mavs and Doncic are bad shots in clutch.

Mavs also have second worst record against Sagarin top ten among teams with a record over .500. Thunder, worst.

Wasn't aware til today how massive Jimmy Bultler's ft rate is. Covers for Nunn and Robinson being very low. Team covers for Butler's poor 3 PT shooting year.

Crowder doing great with Heat. Iggy, ok. Hill, terrible.

Pretty great lineup data overall.

Kinda choppy with Dragic. Only 1 of his lineups used over 1 minute per game and not by much. I'd want something kbown, regular and reliable for playoffs. Most used is strong but not near enough testing.

Clippers get a lot of production from bench players. Bucks and Lakers above average. Rockets get very little boxscore from bench. Jazz pretty weak.

Rubio near his best shooting this season overall. 3pt shot still below league average though. Finishing at rim quite weak.

RAPM through 3/11:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true

Doncic estimated at about plus 1 (104th place).

Jokic 63rd. Reggie Jackson, 30th. Dunn, 70th. A Davis, 128th. KAT, 144th. LeVert, 168. Westbrook, 188th. B Simmons, 200. D Mitchell, 357. D Russell, 468th. Warriors project who I had higher hopes for Paschall, 508.

To mention a few.

LaVine 467th here. Much higher ranked on RPM.

A fuller comparison of this RAPM with Ryan Davis RAPM, RPM and other metrics is a continual recommendation.

Thunder with 3 in bottom 27.

Eric Gordon, 450th. Huerter, 453. Jaren Jackson 427. K Love, 417. Barrett, 502. Reddish, 441. Ojeleye. 400. Conley, 345. J Collins, 306. Ingram, 300. Irving, 276. Oladipo, 212. DeRozan, 257. Nwaba, 56. Much critiqued Horford, 40. M Scott, 30. Jazz rmcastoff Rubio, 21. C Wood, 17. Ingles, 16. Lakers throwaway Bonga, 15. Hyped new man on TWolves Beasley, 241. Draymond 248.

Didn't realize how bad (from a Moreyball perspective) the Nuggets shot distribution is. Slightly below average at the rim and very near the bottom on 3s and freethrows.

Generally an average team with the main exceptions being above average offensive rebounding and way below average ftm / fgas as mentioned. Very slow pace.

Second tier team who has outperformed their expected wins.
So far they are what they wanted to be: the same team as last season. Going out in second round (if played) would be the by the numbers expectation. But opponents will matter in first and second round.

Deep bench. Not sure how much that will matter in playoffs but they probably will be good in years to come. Better than good will take new developments and / or changes.

How do they get better? Moving beyond Grant or Milsap might help defensive rebounding but team fg% / ts% might suffer and isn't that likely to improve. Moving beyond one of the perimeter starters would be a logical place to look. Harris is perhaps most likely but I'd review all of them and what they can get in trades. I am not a big fan of Murray or his contract. 33rd rated PG on RPM at barely positive. Trade one, two or all three (or more). Unless they want another repeat season.