APBRmetrics

Posted: **Mon Sep 22, 2025 12:30 am**

Yeah, WNBA is mainly about the vets.

A few draftees are ready & performing well early, but not that many..

Posted: **Mon Sep 22, 2025 10:42 am**

Playoffs round 2
https://www.basketball-reference.com/wn ... m-opponent

Ind 89 - 73 LVA
Pythagorean wins .89 - .11 , eWins .69 - .31

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.25  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   34  .654   47.8   1.1   3.6   2.0   3.2   .0   2.94
.17  Natasha Howard  Ind   22  .857   28.8  18.3   5.6   3.1   3.4   .0   3.12
.14   Odyssey Sims   Ind   32  .586   23.9   2.3   3.9   3.2   1.1   .0   1.72
.13   A'ja Wilson     LV   34  .327   14.7  14.1    .9    .0   3.2  4.3   1.48
.09   Aliyah Boston  Ind   29  .333    8.5  13.9   7.1    .0   2.5   .0   1.20

.07   Dana Evans      LV   23  .737   20.9   3.0   3.6   1.6   1.5   .0   1.29
.06   Chelsea Gray    LV   34  .520   12.9   5.4   3.5   1.2   2.2   .0    .76
.06   Jackie Young    LV   35  .576   19.7   7.4   1.7    .0   5.2   .0    .73
.01   Lexie Hull     Ind   35  .429    6.1   2.1   2.4    .0    .0  1.0    .13
.01  Brianna Turner  Ind   24  .750    9.4   2.8    .0    .0   1.4  1.4    .10
-.01  Jewell Loyd     LV   28  .300    2.8   1.2   1.0   4.0   1.2   .0   -.15

shooting : Ind .582 - .474 LV
rebounds : Ind 35 - 33 LV
turnovers : Ind 10 - 12 LV

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. Ind   min   PER   WS/40   e400     . LVA   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Hull     35    6.9   .075    .13      Young   35   17.5  -.044    .73
Mitchell 34   40.2   .421   2.94      Wilson  34   11.7  -.180   1.48
Sims     32   28.3   .301   1.72      Gray    34   17.9   .025    .76
Boston   29    8.7   .052   1.20      Loyd    28    3.2  -.081   -.15
Turner   24   12.7   .137    .10      Evans   23   31.3   .252   1.29
Howard   22   38.1   .515   3.12      Bell    16   -2.7  -.184   -.62
Peddy    10   13.4   .102    .57      Smith   15   13.1  -.064    .10
Powers    8  -19.8  -.351   -.46    Gustafson  8   29.1   .485   1.02
Timpson   4   37.3   .677    .98      P-Tyus   5   -8.0  -.285   -.80

totals  200   20.7   .224   1.39     totals  200   13.8  -.025    .61
min. correl.  .14    .12    .17      < (1-7) >     .27   -.07    .47

Min 82 - 69 Phx
Pyth wins .86 - .14 , eWins .68 - .32

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.29   Co. Williams   Min   33  .590   37.6   9.1   8.6   4.8   3.3   .0   3.54
.16   Alyssa Thomas  Phx   37  .529   18.8   7.7   5.3   3.4   2.0   .0   1.75
.14   Kayla McBride  Min   38  .538   21.4   6.0   2.1    .0    .0  1.0   1.51
.13 Napheesa Collier Min   34  .563   25.0  10.0   2.4    .0   3.2   .0   1.57
.07   Satou Sabally  Phx   32  .385    9.0   6.6   2.6   2.6    .0   .0    .86

.05  Kahleah Copper  Phx   37  .478   18.4   1.9    .8    .0   2.0   .0    .50
.04 Bridget Carleton Min   30  .500    6.9  10.0   4.0    .0   1.2   .0    .57
.02   Sami Whitcomb  Phx   24  .611   18.4   4.0   2.1    .0   5.6   .0    .40
.02   Alanna Smith   Min   26  .333    5.7   8.6   4.6    .0   4.2  1.4    .30
.00  DeWanna Bonner  Phx   25  .000     .0  11.7   2.1    .0   1.3   .0    .00

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
-.01  Na. Hiedeman   Min   18  .313    8.9    .0   4.0    .0   3.6   .0   -.18
-.01  Mo. A Makani   Phx   22  .167    1.6   1.6   3.8    .0    .0   .0   -.25

shooting : Min .513 - .448 Phx
rebounds : Min 42 - 35 Phx
turnovers : Phx 10 - 12 Min

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. Phx   min   PER   WS/40   e400      . Min   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Thomas   37   26.8   .183   1.73      McBride  38   21.3   .297   1.52
Copper   37   11.2  -.057    .49      Collier  34   19.7   .182   1.58
Sabally  32   13.7   .065    .85      Williams 33   37.0   .395   3.55
Bonner   25   -2.1  -.079   -.02      Carleton 30    7.8   .149    .58
Whitcomb 24   11.5  -.060    .39      Smith    26    2.8  -.013    .31
A Makani 22   -1.2  -.159   -.25      Hiedeman 18   -2.9  -.162   -.18
Mack     12   28.5   .253    .98      Shepard  11    3.9   .069   -.01
Westbeld 10    2.8  -.034    .07   Kliundikova  8   53.2   .702   3.00

 totals 200   12.1   .013    .63      totals  200   17.1   .190   1.37
min. correl.  .09   -.08    .38           (1-7)     .71    .62    .68

Posted: **Wed Sep 24, 2025 10:17 am**

Min 1 - 1 Phx
avg score 82.5 - 79.0
Pyth wins 1.22 - .78 , eWins 1.11 - .89

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e425
.41   Co. Williams   Min   35  .544   32.5   8.7   8.4   3.9   5.3   .0   2.54
.33   Alyssa Thomas  Phx   40  .500   20.5   7.6   8.6   2.0   2.8   .0   1.77
.27 Napheesa Collier Min   36  .538   24.7   8.3   1.5   1.4   2.0  1.0   1.60
.22   Kayla McBride  Min   41  .600   22.8   3.5   2.3    .4   1.4   .5   1.16
.18   Satou Sabally  Phx   35  .479   17.3   8.1   2.0   1.1   1.0   .0   1.09

.16   Alanna Smith   Min   28  .567   13.8  10.5   5.1    .0   3.2  2.6   1.18
.12   Sami Whitcomb  Phx   29  .545   17.9   4.3   4.4   1.3   3.5   .0    .86
.09   Natasha Mack   Phx   16  .714   13.5   9.4   2.1   1.2    .0  1.1   1.18
.08 Kathryn Westbeld Phx   13  .800   13.9   9.0   1.2   6.7   1.2   .0   1.41
.07  Kahleah Copper  Phx   35  .484   15.6   1.6   2.0    .6   1.6   .0    .43

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e425
.04  Ma. Kliundikova Min    8  .400    7.4  10.7   1.9   3.6    .0  2.0   1.20
.04  Mo. Akoa Makani Phx   21  .458   10.8   3.6   4.9    .0   2.6   .0    .37
.03  Jessica Shepard Min   14  .500    7.3  10.1   3.4    .0   2.3   .0    .44
.02 Bridget Carleton Min   36  .269    2.5   7.3   2.0   1.0   1.0   .5    .09
-.02 DeWanna Bonner  Phx   26  .154    1.4   8.2   1.9    .7   2.0   .0   -.13
-.03  Na. Hiedeman   Min   17  .313    4.5   1.1   2.9    .0   2.9   .0   -.44

shooting : Min .517 - .486 Phx
rebounds: Min 39.5 - 36.0 Phx
turnovers: Phx 12.0 - 14.5 Min

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. Phx    min   PER   WS/40   e400      . Min    min   PER   WS/40   e400
Thomas    80   22.9   .191   1.77      McBride   81   19.7   .194   1.16
Sabally   70   15.1   .099   1.09      Collier   72   21.6   .163   1.60
Copper    69    8.9  -.004    .43      Carleton  71    4.5   .030    .09
Whitcomb  58   13.5   .047    .86      Williams  69   27.0   .193   2.54
Bonner    51   -4.1  -.149   -.13      Smith     56   15.5   .126   1.18
A. Makani 41    8.4  -.002    .37      Hiedeman  33   -2.2  -.165   -.44
Mack      31   23.6   .272   1.18      Shepard   27    9.8   .064    .44
Westbeld  25   27.4   .283   1.41   Kliundikova  15   25.9   .256   1.20
totals   425   13.7   .076    .89    . totals   425   16.0   .118   1.11
correl.   8   -.02   -.18    .23       correl.   8    .40    .34    .31

LVA 1 - 1 Ind
avg score 81.5 - 78.5
Pyth wins 1.20 - .80 , eWins 1.10 - .90

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.46   A'ja Wilson     LV   33  .460   22.7  12.4   1.1   2.6   3.3  3.3   2.78
.30  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   33  .559   26.1   1.1   4.3   2.4   3.4   .0   1.84
.22   Odyssey Sims   Ind   32  .603   19.9   1.1   5.5   2.4   4.0   .0   1.36
.19  Natasha Howard  Ind   23  .691   14.5  13.9   3.1   2.5   3.9   .0   1.72
.18   Dana Evans      LV   21  .648   20.1   2.5   4.7   1.5    .8   .0   1.72

.18   Chelsea Gray    LV   32  .475   10.9   3.5   7.8   2.1   2.8   .0   1.12
.18   Aliyah Boston  Ind   30  .444    9.5  14.3   4.8    .0   3.1   .0   1.21
.16   Jackie Young    LV   34  .571   17.9   6.7   3.7    .0   4.3   .0    .94
.14   NaLyssa Smith   LV   23  .627   17.8   7.3    .8    .7   1.6   .0   1.21
.09   Lexie Hull     Ind   32  .456   11.4   2.8   2.2    .0    .0   .6    .55

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.02  Megan Gustafson  LV    8  .598   11.9   6.0    .0    .0    .0   .0    .51
.01   Kierstan Bell   LV   13  .400    5.1   1.3   2.6   2.5    .0   .0    .21
.00   Shey Peddy     Ind   14  .571    8.8   2.2   1.1    .0   1.1  1.1    .01
-.02  Jewell Loyd     LV   27  .649    8.5   3.2   1.2   1.8   2.5   .0   -.12
-.03  Aerial Powers  Ind    8  .100    1.7   6.2    .0    .0   2.1   .0   -.93
-.06  Brianna Turner Ind   25  .699    4.9   3.3    .0    .7   2.1   .7   -.51

shooting : Ind .541 - .534 LV
rebounds: Ind 32.5 - 31.5 LV
turnovers: LV 13.0 - 14.0 Ind

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. Ind   min   PER   WS/40   e400      . LVA   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Mitchell 65   25.0   .183   1.84      Young    67   16.3   .061    .94
Hull     64   10.7   .058    .55      Wilson   66   25.1   .112   2.78
Sims     64   22.9   .150   1.36      Gray     64   16.4   .088   1.12
Boston   59   13.1   .043   1.21      Loyd     54    8.3   .063   -.12
Turner   49    6.2   .004   -.51      Smith    45   21.2   .166   1.21
Howard   45   22.3   .185   1.72      Evans    41   28.8   .275   1.72
Peddy    28    9.5   .051    .01      Bell     26   10.1   .060    .21
Powers   15  -15.6  -.377   -.93     Gustafson 15   14.7   .215    .51
Timpson   7   20.2   .302    .01   Parker-Tyus  9    1.4  -.124   -.86
Hall      5   21.5   .237   1.23      Nye       5   -4.6  -.027  -1.33
.                                     Stokes    5   -1.9   .007   -.79
totals  400   15.3   .088    .90    . totals  400   17.1   .107   1.10
corell.   8   .77    .75    .72       cor       8   .22   -.47    .44

" corell. 8 " : corellations between minutes and rates for the top 8 players in the list

Posted: **Thu Sep 25, 2025 12:26 pm**

In lieu of BPM to give an idea of the competitive level of each series, I'm just taking the regular season SRS and the avg of the 2 teams.
I seem to recall that in most SPM, a team's SRS will be 4.2 times the avg player (or position) SPM; so an average Lynx player should be (8.72/4.2=) 2.08 BPM better than an avg WNBA player.
Just ranking the NBA players by PER, WS/48, and BPM, I get conversion rates. For each 1.0 of BPM , PER differs by 1.47, WS/40 by .020, e400 by .20:

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rd1   SRS     SRS   tm    srsT   /4.2   PER+  ws40+  e400+
Min   8.72   1.47   GSV   5.10   1.21   1.78   .024   .24
Atl   6.49   2.53   Ind   4.51   1.07   1.58   .021   .21
NYL   3.79   2.55   Phx   3.17    .75   1.11   .015   .15
LVA   2.59   2.02   Sea   2.31    .55   0.81   .011   .11
                        
rd2   SRS     SRS   tm    srsT   /4.2   PER+  ws40+  e400+
Min   8.72   2.55   Phx   5.64   1.34   1.97   .027   .27
LVA   2.59   2.53   Ind   2.56    .61   0.90   .012   .12

The last 3 columns are the adjustments we can make to these 3 player stats, specific to these series.

After normalizing a series total PER to 15.0, and WS/40 to .100, then adding the strength of series adjustment, the Min-Phx players look like this:

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. Phx    min   PER   WS/40   e400      . Min   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Thomas    80   25.1   .225   2.04      McBride  81   21.9   .227   1.43
Sabally   70   17.3   .129   1.36      Collier  72   23.8   .196   1.87
Copper    69   11.0   .024    .70      Carleton 71    6.6   .059    .36
Whitcomb  58   15.6   .076   1.13      Williams 69   29.2   .227   2.81
Bonner    51   -2.1  -.125    .14      Smith    56   17.6   .157   1.45
A. Makani 41   10.5   .026    .64      Hiedeman 33   - .3  -.142   -.17
Mack      31   25.9   .307   1.45      Shepard  27   11.9   .094    .71
Westbeld  25   29.7   .319   1.68   Kliundikova 15   28.1   .291   1.47

totals   425   15.9   .106   1.16      totals  425   18.1   .149   1.38

Player wins now sum to more than # of games, but the inferred point differentials should be unchanged.

Posted: **Sat Sep 27, 2025 1:43 pm**

LVA 2 - 1 Ind
avg score 82.3 - 76.3
Pyth wins 2.07 - .93 , eWins 1.79 - 1.21

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.60   A'ja Wilson     LV   35  .415   19.6  11.4   2.2   1.9   3.2  3.2   2.29
.37  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   34  .482   23.5   1.3   3.1   2.4   2.9   .0   1.46
.35   Jackie Young    LV   34  .633   22.1   6.6   4.1    .3   4.4   .0   1.38
.33   Chelsea Gray    LV   33  .576   13.2   3.5   7.5   1.9   2.6   .4   1.32
.28   NaLyssa Smith   LV   26  .613   18.8   6.5    .5    .8   1.4  1.9   1.42

.27   Lexie Hull     Ind   32  .544   13.4   5.3   2.9    .4    .4  1.1   1.10
.24   Aliyah Boston  Ind   32  .400   10.0  11.3   4.4    .4   3.0   .4   1.01
.23   Dana Evans      LV   21  .667   19.0   2.2   5.9   1.4   2.1   .0   1.44
.21  Natasha Howard  Ind   20  .639   13.7  13.0   2.3   2.0   3.0   .0   1.43
.17   Odyssey Sims   Ind   28  .500   15.8   2.5   5.1   2.0   4.4   .0    .82

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.07  Megan Gustafson  LV    7  .688   16.0   8.9    .0   1.2    .0   .0   1.31
.03  Makayla Timpson Ind    8  .636    8.7   6.0    .0   1.4   2.5  2.5    .47
.02   Kierstan Bell   LV   11  .400    4.4   1.2   3.3   1.9    .0  1.1    .26
.01   Shey Peddy     Ind   16  .640   10.4   2.5   1.9    .0   2.0   .7    .04

-.05  Aerial Powers  Ind    9  .125    2.2   4.9   1.3    .0   1.3   .0   -.72
-.06  Brianna Turner Ind   20  .750    4.9   4.1    .0   1.2   2.2   .6   -.38
-.06  Jewell Loyd     LV   26  .500    5.9   3.3    .9   1.6   2.2   .4   -.32

shooting : LV .546 - .501 Ind
rebounds: Ind 34.7 - 29.7 LV
turnovers: LV 13.3 - 14.0 Ind

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. Ind    min   PER   WS/40   e400      . LVA   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Mitchell 102   17.9   .089   1.46      Wilson  104   16.8   .028   2.29
Boston    97   11.1   .004   1.01      Young   101   20.3   .147   1.38
Hull      97   16.5   .159   1.10      Gray    100   19.5   .166   1.32
Sims      83   14.9   .036    .82      Smith    78   21.0   .180   1.42
Turner    60    7.2   .010   -.38      Loyd     77    3.6   .013   -.32
Howard    60   21.6   .177   1.43      Evans    64   25.2   .247   1.44
Peddy     49   11.4   .099    .04      Bell     33   10.5   .087    .26
Powers    26  -10.7  -.251   -.72     Gustafson 22   25.9   .379   1.31
Timpson   24   17.1   .116    .47   Parker-Tyus  9     .7  -.100   -.18
Hall       5   21.0   .219   1.23      Nye       5   -3.6  -.009  -1.28
.                                      Stokes    5   -1.5   .031   -.71
totals   600   13.8   .069    .81      totals  600   17.0   .126   1.19
corr w min  9   .46    .27    .71                 8   .10   -.30    .48

Phx 2 - 1 Min
avg score 80.7 - 80.3
Pyth wins 1.53 - 1.47 , eWins 1.52 - 1.48

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e417
.59   Alyssa Thomas  Phx   39  .509   22.5   8.2   8.9   2.8   3.2   .6   2.12
.47   Co. Williams   Min   36  .514   23.8   7.1   6.2   3.5   3.8   .0   1.84
.36 Napheesa Collier Min   36  .546   22.2   7.3   1.9   1.0   2.7  1.7   1.39
.30   Satou Sabally  Phx   33  .548   22.8   7.2   1.5    .7   1.8   .0   1.26
.28   Kayla McBride  Min   40  .574   18.4   3.5   2.9   1.0   1.2   .3   1.00

.17  Kahleah Copper  Phx   35  .560   19.4   2.2   2.1    .3   2.1   .0    .67
.13   Alanna Smith   Min   23  .447    9.8   8.8   4.5    .0   2.6  2.1    .80
.12   Sami Whitcomb  Phx   27  .467   13.8   3.5   5.0   1.6   3.7   .0    .63
.12  Ma. Kliundikova Min   11  .545   11.1  10.7   1.8   1.9    .0  3.7   1.46
.10   Natasha Mack   Phx   14  .625    8.8  10.9   1.6    .8    .8  2.4    .97

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e417
.10 Kathryn Westbeld Phx   13  .917   11.2   7.3   1.6   4.6    .8   .0   1.03
.09  Mo. Akoa Makani Phx   21  .500   12.1   5.2   4.5    .0   2.2   .0    .56
.08 Natisha Hiedeman Min   19  .522   16.9   1.8   3.3   1.2   2.9   .0    .62
.04  DeWanna Bonner  Phx   24  .190    2.6   9.6   2.3    .9   1.4   .5    .25
.03  Jessica Shepard Min   11  .417    5.2   8.5   4.3    .9   2.7   .0    .35
.00 Bridget Carleton Min   33  .317    3.9   6.6   1.4    .8   1.5   .4    .02

shooting : Min .511 - .507 Phx
rebounds: Phx 36.3 - 36.0 Min
turnovers: Phx 13.0 - 13.3 Min

Phx up 1 point, 1 rebound, 1 turnover. Min shooting better by 1 FT.

Code: Select all

. Phx    min   PER   WS/40   e417      . Min    min   PER   WS/40   e417
Thomas   116   26.0   .225   2.12      McBride  119   18.6   .171   1.00
Copper   106   12.2   .059    .67      Collier  109   19.5   .112   1.39
Sabally  100   18.5   .172   1.26      Williams 107   21.8   .128   1.84
Whitcomb  82    9.6  -.016    .63      Carleton  98    3.3  -.028    .02
Bonner    73    1.2  -.081    .25      Smith     68   11.1   .032    .80
A Makani  64   10.9   .053    .56      Hiedeman  56   13.8   .028    .62
Mack      43   18.8   .182    .97      Shepard   34   10.1   .015    .35
Westbeld  40   24.6   .277   1.03   Kliundikova  33   29.8   .314   1.46

totals   625   15.3   .103   1.01      totals   625   15.8   .093    .99
correl. w min   .11    .05    .48                      .20    .29    .47

Posted: **Mon Sep 29, 2025 11:35 am**

LVA 2 - 2 Ind
avg score 82.5 - 79.8
Pyth wins 2.36 - 1.64 , eWins 2.18 - 1.85

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.78   A'ja Wilson     LV   35  .462   21.9  10.2   2.2   2.4   3.1  3.1   2.23
.53   Jackie Young    LV   35  .658   24.2   5.8   5.0    .2   3.7   .0   1.54
.51   Aliyah Boston  Ind   33  .460   13.5  13.0   4.9    .9   2.8   .8   1.57
.45  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   35  .497   23.3   1.8   3.5   1.7   2.9   .0   1.28
.37   Chelsea Gray    LV   35  .535   13.2   2.9   7.3   2.5   3.2   .3   1.06

.29   Odyssey Sims   Ind   27  .561   19.7   2.4   4.9   1.8   4.1   .0   1.06
.29   Lexie Hull     Ind   34  .458   10.6   6.0   2.5   1.5    .8  1.1    .85
.28   NaLyssa Smith   LV   25  .639   19.9   5.5    .3    .7   2.2  1.8   1.12
.24   Dana Evans      LV   19  .627   19.4   1.8   5.0   1.2   1.8   .0   1.23
.21  Natasha Howard  Ind   22  .577   13.6  11.2   2.2   1.4   3.4   .0    .98

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.10   Shey Peddy     Ind   16  .676   13.7   3.6   2.1   1.1   2.1   .5    .59
.05  Megan Gustafson  LV    9  .650   13.1   6.2    .0    .8    .9   .0    .50
.03   Kierstan Bell   LV   10  .583    7.2   0.9   2.7   1.8    .0   .9    .33
.02  Makayla Timpson Ind    9  .636    7.3   6.5    .0   2.0   2.8  1.9    .26

-.01 Brianna Turner  Ind   17  .786    6.6   4.4    .0   1.6   2.0   .5   -.08
-.05  Aerial Powers  Ind    7  .125    1.0   5.0   1.3    .0   1.2   .0   -.67
-.07  Jewell Loyd     LV   28  .452    5.6   3.2    .6   1.5   1.9   .6   -.25

shooting : LV .553 - .510 Ind
rebounds: Ind 34.5 - 27.8 LV
turnovers: LV 13.8 - 14.0 Ind

Code: Select all

. Ind    min   PER   WS/40   e400     . LVA   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Mitchell 141   17.8   .106   1.28      Wilson 140   21.4   .069   2.23
Hull     135   12.5   .095    .85      Young  139   21.2   .182   1.54
Boston   130   17.9   .109   1.57      Gray   138   16.8   .108   1.06
Sims     108   18.2   .109   1.06      Loyd   110    3.4  -.019   -.25
Howard    86   15.6   .102    .98      Smith  100   17.3   .118   1.12

Turner    69    8.7   .040   -.08      Evans   77   21.2   .184   1.23
Peddy     65   15.0   .147    .59      Bell    39   11.9   .111    .33
Timpson   35   13.0   .091    .26    Gustafson 37   13.1   .178    .50
Powers    28  -10.1  -.226   -.67      P-Tyus   9    -.1  -.127   -.30
Hall       5   21.0   .219   1.44      Stokes   6   -1.3   .015   -.66
                                       Nye      5   -3.8  -.021  -1.12

totals   800   14.6   .091    .91     totals  800   16.2   .105   1.09

correl:    9    .54    .26    .80               8    .32   -.21    .53

The two centers in this series seem to bring out the best and worst in one another, on offense. They have shot both-good or both-bad in each game:

Code: Select all

.     Aliyah Boston            A'ja Wilson
G  FGA  FTA  Pts  eff%     FGA  FTA  Pts  eff%
1    9   0    6   .333      22   5   16   .327
2    9   0   10   .556      18   4   25   .625
3   16   2   12   .353      20   1   13   .317
4   15  13   24   .558      24   6   31   .574
                           
    -  - combined - -                   
G  FGA  FTA  Pts  eff%               
1   31   5   22   .328               
2   27   4   35   .603               
3   36   3   25   .333               
4   39  19   55   .567

eff% = Pts/(fga*2 + fta)
Both players shooting 46% for the series but never close to that in a game.

Posted: **Mon Sep 29, 2025 11:59 am**

Phx 3 - 1 Min
avg score 82.0 - 80.5
Pyth wins 2.19 - 1.81 , eWins 2.10 - 1.90

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e413
.81   Alyssa Thomas  Phx   38  .529   24.8   8.2   9.2   2.4   3.8   .5   2.18
.59   Co. Williams   Min   35  .497   23.3   6.1   6.0   3.1   2.9   .0   1.73
.46   Kayla McBride  Min   39  .586   21.7   3.5   2.6    .9    .9   .5   1.21
.46   Satou Sabally  Phx   34  .578   24.8   7.0   1.9    .5   1.9   .0   1.38
.34 Napheesa Collier Min   27  .546   22.1   7.1   1.8   1.0   2.7  1.7   1.29

.19  Kahleah Copper  Phx   35  .533   18.6   2.8   1.6    .3   2.4   .0    .57
.18   Alanna Smith   Min   24  .500   10.6   9.5   3.6    .4   2.3  2.3    .81
.15   Sami Whitcomb  Phx   27  .436   11.9   4.1   4.9   1.3   2.9   .0    .56
.15   Natasha Mack   Phx   14  .538   10.5  12.8   2.1    .7   1.4  2.7   1.12
.14  Ma. Kliundikova Min   12  .412    9.1  12.5   2.7   1.4    .7  3.6   1.25

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e413
.14 Kathryn Westbeld Phx   13  .778   12.0   9.3   1.4   4.2    .7   .0   1.15
.13  DeWanna Bonner  Phx   25  .362    5.9   9.5   2.1   1.1   1.0  1.0    .53
.12  Jessica Shepard Min   18  .528   11.4   8.2   3.2   1.5   2.5   .0    .72
.08 Natisha Hiedeman Min   19  .435   13.0   2.3   4.1    .9   2.7   .4    .45
.08  Mo. Akoa Makani Phx   21  .458   10.0   4.5   4.4    .0   1.7   .0    .38

-.02 Br. Carleton    Min   32  .356    3.4   5.8   1.3   1.1   1.4   .6   -.07

shooting : Phx .516 - .507 Min
rebounds: Phx 36.8 - 35.5 Min
turnovers: Min 11.5 - 12.8 Phx

Code: Select all

. Phx    min   PER   WS/40   e400      . Min    min   PER   WS/40   e400
Thomas   153   25.3   .212   2.18      McBride  157   21.9   .196   1.21
Copper   138   10.4   .033    .57      Williams 140   21.5   .117   1.73
Sabally  136   19.2   .192   1.38      Carleton 127    4.1  -.014   -.07
Whitcomb 109    8.5  -.004    .56      Collier  109   19.2   .084   1.29
Bonner   100    8.5   .040    .53      Smith     94   13.3   .068    .81
A Makani  85    8.1   .038    .38      Hiedeman  77    9.3  -.041    .45
Mack      54   18.6   .172   1.12      Shepard   70   13.4   .062    .72
Westbeld  50   22.4   .253   1.15   Kliundikova  47   21.0   .161   1.25
                                       Kosu       3   10.7   .182    .64
totals   825   15.2   .111   1.05      totals   825   15.7   .085    .95
correl.    8    .01    .01    .39                 8    .31    .43    .18

After double- and triple-checking at b-r.com, I cannot find a reason that Lynx have the better total PER in the series.

APBRmetrics

WNBA 2025 eWins etc. w. Playoffs

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc. w. Playoffs

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc. w. Playoffs

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc. w. Playoffs

Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc. w. Playoffs