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Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:14 pm
by DLew
I would strongly suggest that you use actual 2010-11 results for rookies, otherwise the contest will depend heavily on who has the best rookie predictions, which I don't think is the intent here.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:21 pm
by DSMok1
DLew wrote:I would strongly suggest that you use actual 2010-11 results for rookies, otherwise the contest will depend heavily on who has the best rookie predictions, which I don't think is the intent here.
I don't think that's really possible, because we are predicting team efficiencies/lineup efficiencies (not individual anythings). Since we are not predicting individual numbers, I think we'd best use a set value for the rookies.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:26 pm
by EvanZ
What's the average RAPM value for rookies for 2009-2010? I'm fine with using that.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:36 pm
by J.E.
I just did a small test:
which rating for unknown players does best when predicting 08 with 07, 09 with 08 and 10 with 09.
Result was -1.5/-1.5 (off/def) for 08, -0.5/-0.5 for 09, -0.5/-0.5 for 10.
I'll use -0.8 (the average) for both offense and defense then. If someone wants to use something different that's fine too, as long as you didn't optimize it on '11

I'll post results in a couple of minutes

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 2:55 pm
by jsill
If you're going to predict things on a per-possession basis (or per-game-segment-without-player-substitution basis), then another possibility would be simply to remove those possessions/game segments where rookies played from the evaluation, and only test the models on data where all 10 players on the floor had played in the NBA in at least 1 previous season.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 3:07 pm
by DSMok1
jsill wrote:If you're going to predict things on a per-possession basis (or per-game-segment-without-player-substitution basis), then another possibility would be simply to remove those possessions/game segments where rookies played from the evaluation, and only test the models on data where all 10 players on the floor had played in the NBA in at least 1 previous season.
It would probably be straightforward to do it both ways, right J.E.? I like J.E.'s method of just making them all -1.6 players.

Here were my ASPM projections from before the season. These were already posted before the season; I'm just cleaning and posting here.

I would prefer if the rookies were all given the -1.6 because of the selective sampling issue mentioned before. Nevertheless, I am including them here for the sake of completeness:

Code: Select all

LastTm    Name                       BBV ID   Rookie?   ASPM Projection
WAS       Josh Howard                1        0                    -1.45
CHI       Kurt Thomas                2        0                    -1.24
MIA       Erick Dampier              3        0                    -0.16
DAL       Shawn Marion               4        0                     0.05
DAL       Dirk Nowitzki              5        0                     3.93
DAL       Jason Terry                6        0                     0.21
UTA       Raja Bell                  7        0                    -2.61
PHX       Steve Nash                 8        0                     2.63
MIA       James Jones                10       0                    -3.39
CHA       Boris Diaw                 12       0                     0.08
BOS       Marquis Daniels            14       0                    -2.68
UTA       Devin Harris               15       0                     1.04
TOR       Leandro Barbosa            16       0                    -0.78
CHA       DeSagana Diop              17       0                    -2.26
MIA       Eddie House                20       0                    -2.73
DEN       Kenyon Martin              21       0                     0.08
POR       Marcus Camby               23       0                     2.56
SAS       Manu Ginobili              24       0                     4.28
NYK       Carmelo Anthony            25       0                     3.35
SAS       Tim Duncan                 26       0                     4.30
SAS       Tony Parker                30       0                     2.24
POR       Andre Miller               31       0                     0.85
DEN       Nene Hilario               34       0                     3.19
MIL       Earl Boykins               35       0                    -4.74
CHA       Eduardo Najera             36       0                    -3.01
POR       Fabricio Oberto            37       0                    -2.60
OKC       Nazr Mohammed              40       0                    -1.89
UTA       Francisco Elson            42       0                    -4.01
MIL       Michael Redd               45       0                    -0.38
IND       T.J. Ford                  47       0                    -0.60
SAS       Bobby Simmons              48       0                    -2.66
MIL       Andrew Bogut               49       0                     2.75
MIA       Jamaal Magloire            51       0                    -4.41
PHI       Andre Iguodala             52       0                     2.47
CHI       Kyle Korver                54       0                    -1.76
LAC       Mo Williams                55       0                     0.71
NJN       Dan Gadzuric               56       0                    -3.34
MIL       John Salmons               59       0                     0.32
GSW       Charlie Bell               60       0                    -3.55
DEN       J.R. Smith                 63       0                     0.68
HOU       Brad Miller                65       0                    -1.24
DAL       Peja Stojakovic            67       0                    -2.45
MIA       Mike Bibby                 68       0                    -0.75
NOH       David West                 69       0                     0.88
NOH       Chris Paul                 70       0                    10.17
DEN       Chris Andersen             73       0                     0.99
CHI       Rasual Butler              76       0                    -3.46
HOU       Kevin Martin               77       0                     0.20
MIL       Brian Skinner              78       0                    -5.09
SAC       Francisco Garcia           80       0                    -1.37
ORL       Brandon Bass               83       0                    -1.23
UTA       Ronnie Price               85       0                    -2.93
ATL       Joe Johnson                86       0                     1.63
CLE       Baron Davis                87       0                     1.09
ATL       Zaza Pachulia              88       0                    -1.13
BOS       Troy Murphy                89       0                     1.69
ORL       Jason Richardson           90       0                     0.94
PHX       Josh Childress             91       0                    -0.56
IND       Mike Dunleavy              92       0                    -1.24
ATL       Josh Smith                 94       0                     4.10
DEN       Al Harrington              95       0                    -1.50
ATL       Marvin Williams            97       0                     0.72
PHX       Mickael Pietrus            98       0                    -0.85
GSW       Andris Biedrins            101      0                     2.24
LAL       Derek Fisher               103      0                    -1.67
OKC       Royal Ivey                 109      0                    -3.91
ATL       Kirk Hinrich               110      0                    -1.10
POR       Gerald Wallace             111      0                     3.57
PHI       Andres Nocioni             112      0                    -3.43
ORL       Chris Duhon                113      0                    -2.98
NOH       Emeka Okafor               117      0                    -0.70
DAL       Tyson Chandler             118      0                    -1.56
DET       Ben Gordon                 119      0                    -1.68
PHI       Darius Songaila            121      0                    -2.91
CHI       Luol Deng                  122      0                     1.17
DEN       Melvin Ely                 123      0                    -5.97
DEN       Raymond Felton             126      0                     0.61
CHA       Matt Carroll               128      0                    -4.01
ORL       Malik Allen                130      0                    -4.73
UTA       Mehmet Okur                132      0                     0.14
UTA       Andrei Kirilenko           136      0                     2.19
POR       Jarron Collins             137      0                    -5.09
NJN       Deron Williams             139      0                     4.20
NJN       Kris Humphries             141      0                    -2.45
BOS       Jermaine O'Neal            143      0                    -1.02
PHI       Tony Battie                144      0                    -3.72
LAL       Ron Artest                 145      0                     0.35
CHA       Stephen Jackson            147      0                     0.49
DAL       DeShawn Stevenson          148      0                    -4.24
ORL       Dwight Howard              149      0                     5.59
ORL       Hedo Turkoglu              151      0                    -0.25
IND       Danny Granger              155      0                     2.48
ORL       Jameer Nelson              158      0                     1.69
TOR       Reggie Evans               163      0                    -3.22
LAC       Chris Kaman                164      0                    -1.34
BOS       Ray Allen                  166      0                     0.24
PHI       Elton Brand                167      0                    -0.89
NJN       Johan Petro                168      0                    -3.15
NJN       Quinton Ross               169      0                    -4.93
WAS       Rashard Lewis              170      0                     1.58
OKC       Nick Collison              172      0                    -0.46
MIN       Luke Ridnour               173      0                    -0.59
ATL       Damien Wilkins             176      0                    -2.82
GSW       Vladimir Radmanovic        180      0                    -3.61
DET       Chris Wilcox               181      0                    -3.19
LAL       Kobe Bryant                186      0                     4.62
LAL       Lamar Odom                 187      0                     1.60
CHA       Kwame Brown                189      0                    -3.52
LAC       Brian Cook                 191      0                    -6.02
NJN       Sasha Vujacic              193      0                    -1.10
LAL       Andrew Bynum               194      0                     2.77
MEM       Jason Williams             196      0                    -1.25
LAL       Pau Gasol                  197      0                     3.72
MEM       Shane Battier              198      0                     0.37
MIA       Udonis Haslem              201      0                    -1.64
BOS       Shaquille O'Neal           203      0                    -0.55
MIA       Dwyane Wade                204      0                     9.04
MIA       Mike Miller                209      0                    -0.13
PHI       Jason Kapono               211      0                    -4.79
IND       Dahntay Jones              212      0                    -3.19
GSW       Dorell Wright              214      0                    -0.12
POR       Earl Barron                215      0                    -2.67
PHX       Hakim Warrick              218      0                    -2.63
BOS       Nenad Krstic               220      0                    -1.80
SAS       Richard Jefferson          221      0                    -0.31
DAL       Jason Kidd                 222      0                     2.00
ATL       Jason Collins              223      0                    -4.93
PHX       Vince Carter               224      0                     1.87
NYK       Eddy Curry                 235      0                    -5.15
ORL       Quentin Richardson         237      0                    -1.07
BOS       Delonte West               239      0                    -0.42
BOS       Paul Pierce                240      0                     1.95
LAL       Matt Barnes                241      0                    -0.14
NOH       Trevor Ariza               245      0                     1.07
LAC       Ryan Gomes                 246      0                    -1.92
UTA       Al Jefferson               247      0                     1.47
ATL       Jamal Crawford             249      0                    -0.14
NJN       Orien Greene               251      0                    -5.18
CHI       Brian Scalabrine           252      0                    -4.25
OKC       Kendrick Perkins           253      0                     0.31
OKC       Nate Robinson              254      0                     0.01
MIL       Drew Gooden                257      0                    -2.56
MIA       Zydrunas Ilgauskas         258      0                    -2.65
MIA       LeBron James               260      0                    11.72
BOS       Sasha Pavlovic             265      0                    -4.43
DET       Richard Hamilton           270      0                    -1.21
NYK       Chauncey Billups           271      0                     1.44
DET       Tayshaun Prince            272      0                    -0.14
DET       Ben Wallace                273      0                     1.92
SAS       Antonio McDyess            275      0                    -0.68
WAS       Maurice Evans              276      0                    -2.31
BOS       Carlos Arroyo              277      0                    -2.15
MIN       Darko Milicic              278      0                    -0.99
MIL       Carlos Delfino             279      0                     0.58
DET       Jason Maxiell              280      0                    -1.69
PHI       Louis Williams             281      0                     1.17
CHA       Joel Przybilla             284      0                    -0.25
BOS       Kevin Garnett              285      0                     3.62
MEM       Zach Randolph              287      0                     1.27
MIN       Sebastian Telfair          289      0                    -2.89
NOH       Jarrett Jack               296      0                    -0.65
LAL       Theo Ratliff               297      0                    -2.47
NYK       Anthony Carter             298      0                    -2.95
HOU       Yao Ming                   302      0                     2.20
MIA       Juwan Howard               304      0                    -3.46
DET       Tracy McGrady              305      0                    -0.63
ORL       Gilbert Arenas             313      0                     2.42
NYK       Jared Jeffries             315      0                    -1.83
CLE       Antawn Jamison             316      0                     0.51
CLE       Joey Graham                317      0                    -4.26
MIA       Chris Bosh                 319      0                     3.65
PHI       Antonio Daniels            321      0                    -4.00
DAL       Brendan Haywood            322      0                    -0.20
ATL       Etan Thomas                323      0                    -6.02
DAL       Caron Butler               324      0                     0.40
OKC       Morris Peterson            326      0                    -4.23
DET       Charlie Villanueva         327      0                    -1.19
SAS       Matt Bonner                330      0                     0.23
TOR       Jose Calderon              331      0                     0.41
SAC       Beno Udrih                 344      0                    -0.97
TOR       Ronald Dupree              349      0                    -5.12
NJN       Travis Outlaw              354      0                    -1.50
LAL       Steve Blake                355      0                    -2.18
MIN       Martell Webster            356      0                    -1.44
UTA       Earl Watson                357      0                    -2.77
PHX       Channing Frye              362      0                     1.50
CHI       Keith Bogans               366      0                    -1.83
SAC       Luther Head                372      0                    -3.32
GSW       David Lee                  377      0                     2.79
LAL       Joe Smith                  383      0                    -3.95
MIL       Corey Maggette             390      0                    -0.76
IND       James Posey                401      0                    -1.88
POR       Sean Marks                 410      0                    -4.72
WAS       Andray Blatche             413      0                     0.98
GSW       Monta Ellis                417      0                     0.67
MIL       Keyon Dooling              419      0                    -3.56
UTA       C.J. Miles                 426      0                    -0.65
ATL       Josh Powell                430      0                    -5.63
NOH       DJ Mbenga                  439      0                    -4.17
SAC       Antoine Wright             444      0                    -3.51
LAC       Ike Diogu                  453      0                    -4.06
BOS       Von Wafer                  454      0                    -2.92
SAC       Samuel Dalembert           458      0                    -0.95
LAL       Luke Walton                459      0                    -2.69
IND       Jeff Foster                468      0                    -1.26
NJN       Stephen Graham             477      0                    -4.43
CHA       Shaun Livingston           483      0                    -2.42
DAL       Brian Cardinal             484      0                    -3.60
PHX       Grant Hill                 486      0                    -0.07
TOR       Marcus Banks               488      0                    -3.16
MIA       Jerry Stackhouse           492      0                    -3.26
CHI       John Lucas                 498      0                     #N/A
MEM       Tony Allen                 501      0                    -1.10
CLE       Anderson Varejao           505      0                     1.89
HOU       Chuck Hayes                508      0                     0.84
TOR       Amir Johnson               510      0                     1.37
NYK       Ronny Turiaf               516      0                    -0.84
CHI       Carlos Boozer              518      0                     2.83
DET       Will Bynum                 532      0                    -1.84
NYK       Amare Stoudemire           537      0                     1.24
NOH       Willie Green               541      0                    -3.51
SAS       Ime Udoka                  544      0                    -2.80
IND       Solomon Jones              550      0                    -2.92
NYK       Shelden Williams           551      0                    -2.39
MEM       Leon Powe                  552      0                    -3.29
BOS       Rajon Rondo                553      0                     4.78
CLE       Ryan Hollins               557      0                    -4.01
OKC       Thabo Sefolosha            558      0                     0.50
CHA       Tyrus Thomas               559      0                     0.97
LAL       Shannon Brown              560      0                    -1.23
CLE       Daniel Gibson              561      0                    -0.89
MIN       Maurice Ager               562      0                    -6.06
DAL       Jose Barea                 563      0                    -2.20
NOH       Pops Mensah-Bonsu          564      0                    -5.95
SAS       Steve Novak                569      0                    -4.07
NYK       Shawne Williams            573      0                    -2.78
NJN       Jordan Farmar              575      0                    -1.63
MEM       Rudy Gay                   577      0                     0.90
HOU       Kyle Lowry                 579      0                     0.42
SAS       Chris Quinn                581      0                    -3.84
LAC       Randy Foye                 588      0                    -2.14
LAC       Craig Smith                589      0                    -0.90
ATL       Hilton Armstrong           594      0                    -4.34
NYK       Renaldo Balkman            597      0                    -0.92
ORL       J.J. Redick                599      0                    -0.02
MEM       Rodney Carney              601      0                    -3.15
POR       Brandon Roy                606      0                     4.23
POR       LaMarcus Aldridge          607      0                     2.66
TOR       Andrea Bargnani            612      0                    -1.00
CLE       Anthony Parker             614      0                    -1.13
CHI       Ronnie Brewer              617      0                     1.04
NYK       Roger Mason                622      0                    -2.90
UTA       Paul Millsap               629      0                     2.16
TOR       Linas Kleiza               640      0                    -2.82
NYK       Kelenna Azubuike           643      0                    -1.89
GSW       Louis Amundson             653      0                    -1.94
DAL       Ian Mahinmi                660      0                    -4.35
POR       Greg Oden                  661      0                     2.01
IND       Josh McRoberts             662      0                    -0.69
PHX       Aaron Brooks               666      0                    -0.63
NOH       Carl Landry                667      0                    -0.63
UTA       Kyrylo Fesenko             669      0                    -2.82
NJN       Brandan Wright             671      0                    -0.62
NOH       Marco Belinelli            673      0                    -3.00
HOU       Luis Scola                 674      0                     0.80
BOS       Glen Davis                 675      0                    -1.84
DEN       Wilson Chandler            679      0                    -0.20
PHI       Thaddeus Young             681      0                     0.43
LAC       Jamario Moon               682      0                     0.02
NOH       Aaron Gray                 685      0                    -1.98
CHI       Joakim Noah                686      0                     2.03
DEN       Arron Afflalo              689      0                    -1.16
DET       Rodney Stuckey             691      0                     0.41
WAS       Yi Jianlian                693      0                    -2.62
CLE       Ramon Sessions             694      0                    -1.24
ATL       Al Horford                 695      0                     3.39
GSW       Acie Law                   696      0                    -4.44
NJN       Mario West                 697      0                    -3.01
PHX       Jared Dudley               699      0                     1.14
MIA       Joel Anthony               700      0                    -1.70
OKC       Daequan Cook               701      0                    -3.86
PHX       Marcin Gortat              702      0                    -0.15
CHA       Dominic McGuire            703      0                    -2.30
WAS       Nick Young                 705      0                    -4.15
MEM       Mike Conley                707      0                     0.20
TOR       Julian Wright              711      0                    -2.52
DAL       Corey Brewer               712      0                    -1.27
OKC       Kevin Durant               714      0                     5.86
BOS       Jeff Green                 715      0                     0.44
GSW       Al Thornton                716      0                    -2.49
PHI       Spencer Hawes              719      0                    -0.59
WAS       Mustafa Shakur             720      1                     #N/A
NOH       Jason Smith                722      0                    -3.14
CHI       C.J. Watson                726      0                    -1.19
HOU       Mike Harris                729      0                    -3.88
POR       Rudy Fernandez             734      0                     0.73
TOR       Jerryd Bayless             735      0                    -2.19
POR       Nicolas Batum              736      0                     2.53
SAC       Donte Greene               739      0                    -2.47
SAC       Jason Thompson             741      0                    -0.67
MIN       Anthony Randolph           746      0                    -0.37
DEN       Kosta Koufos               748      0                    -3.51
NYK       Bill Walker                752      0                    -0.03
TOR       Alexis Ajinca              753      0                    -6.19
CHA       D.J. Augustin              754      0                    -1.06
CHI       Derrick Rose               755      0                     1.78
CLE       J.J. Hickson               756      0                    -1.08
SAC       Darnell Jackson            757      0                    -6.08
CLE       Jawad Williams             758      0                    -3.55
TOR       Sonny Weems                759      0                    -1.23
TOR       Joey Dorsey                761      0                    -5.46
IND       Roy Hibbert                762      0                     0.02
IND       Brandon Rush               763      0                    -1.94
LAC       Eric Gordon                764      0                    -0.17
LAC       DeAndre Jordan             765      0                    -1.97
MEM       Darrell Arthur             768      0                    -1.26
MEM       Marc Gasol                 769      0                     2.59
MEM       Hamed Haddadi              770      0                    -3.93
MEM       O.J. Mayo                  771      0                     0.30
MIN       Michael Beasley            772      0                    -0.19
MIA       Mario Chalmers             773      0                    -0.51
NOH       Joe Alexander              776      0                    -4.37
MIL       Luc Mbah a Moute           777      0                     0.98
MIN       Kevin Love                 778      0                     1.63
ORL       Ryan Anderson              779      0                     0.46
MIL       Chris Douglas-Roberts      780      0                    -3.46
NJN       Brook Lopez                781      0                     2.06
DEN       Danilo Gallinari           784      0                     0.44
UTA       Kyle Weaver                785      0                    -1.46
OKC       Russell Westbrook          786      0                     2.27
CHA       D.J. White                 787      0                    -1.58
HOU       Courtney Lee               788      0                    -0.97
PHI       Marreese Speights          789      0                    -0.93
HOU       Goran Dragic               790      0                    -1.02
PHX       Robin Lopez                791      0                    -1.29
SAS       George Hill                793      0                     0.90
MIN       Anthony Tolliver           794      0                    -1.74
WAS       JaVale McGee               798      0                    -1.66
NJN       Anthony Morrow             800      0                    -1.93
WAS       Cartier Martin             801      0                    -2.83
LAL       Trey Johnson               803      0                    -5.44
ATL       Jeff Teague                806      0                    -2.23
WAS       Lester Hudson              807      0                    -3.70
NYK       Derrick Brown              808      0                    -2.10
CHA       Gerald Henderson           809      0                    -3.28
CHI       Taj Gibson                 811      0                    -0.63
TOR       James Johnson              812      0                    -2.43
SAS       Danny Green                813      0                    -3.17
DAL       Rodrigue Beaubois          814      0                     0.18
DEN       Ty Lawson                  816      0                    -0.24
DET       Austin Daye                818      0                    -1.89
DET       Jonas Jerebko              819      0                    -0.25
DET       DaJuan Summers             820      0                    -4.33
GSW       Stephen Curry              821      0                     1.05
NOH       David Andersen             822      0                    -3.70
HOU       Chase Budinger             823      0                    -0.36
SAC       Jermaine Taylor            824      0                    -3.68
IND       Tyler Hansbrough           825      0                    -2.16
IND       A.J. Price                 826      0                    -1.84
LAC       Blake Griffin              827      1                     1.37
HOU       DeMarre Carroll            831      0                    -2.93
HOU       Hasheem Thabeet            833      0                    -0.75
MEM       Sam Young                  834      0                    -3.68
MIL       Ersan Ilyasova             835      0                     1.19
MIL       Brandon Jennings           836      0                     1.76
PHI       Jodie Meeks                837      0                    -2.55
MIN       Wayne Ellington            838      0                    -4.09
MIN       Jonny Flynn                839      0                    -2.03
HOU       Terrence Williams          840      0                    -2.43
IND       Darren Collison            841      0                    -1.33
SAC       Marcus Thornton            842      0                    -0.25
NYK       Toney Douglas              843      0                    -1.16
HOU       Jordan Hill                844      0                    -1.66
OKC       James Harden               846      0                     1.11
OKC       Serge Ibaka                847      0                    -1.30
OKC       Byron Mullens              848      0                    -3.94
PHI       Jrue Holiday               849      0                    -0.88
ORL       Earl Clark                 850      0                    -4.03
CHA       Dante Cunningham           852      0                    -1.25
POR       Patrick Mills              853      0                    -3.72
MIL       Jon Brockman               855      0                    -1.98
SAC       Omri Casspi                856      0                    -1.04
SAC       Tyreke Evans               857      0                     2.93
SAS       DeJuan Blair               858      0                     1.47
TOR       DeMar Derozan              860      0                    -1.48
POR       Wesley Matthews            861      0                    -1.82
OKC       Eric Maynor                862      0                    -2.01
NJN       Sundiata Gaines            865      0                    -2.27
CHA       Garrett Temple             868      0                    -2.18
GSW       Reggie Williams            869      0                    -0.06
WAS       Othyus Jeffers             871      0                    -4.28
CLE       Alonzo Gee                 872      0                    -4.09
WAS       Jordan Crawford            874      1                    -4.21
ATL       Pape Sy                    875      1                    -6.40
BOS       Avery Bradley              876      1                    -3.40
CLE       Semih Erden                877      1                    -3.50
CLE       Luke Harangody             878      1                    -6.33
CHA       Sherron Collins            879      1                    -3.50
CHI       Omer Asik                  880      1                    -3.50
CLE       Christian Eyenga           881      1                    -3.58
CLE       Manny Harris               882      1                    -3.50
CLE       Samardo Samuels            883      1                    -3.50
DAL       Dominique Jones            884      1                    -4.02
DEN       Gary Forbes                885      1                     #N/A
DET       Greg Monroe                886      1                    -1.73
DET       Terrico White              887      0                    -5.02
GSW       Jeff Adrien                888      1                     #N/A
GSW       Jeremy Lin                 889      1                    -3.50
GSW       Ekpe Udoh                  890      1                    -1.52
HOU       Patrick Patterson          891      1                    -2.81
MEM       Ishmael Smith              892      1                     #N/A
MEM       Xavier Henry               893      1                    -2.54
MEM       Greivis Vasquez            894      1                    -4.31
MIN       Lazar Hayward              895      1                    -4.49
MIN       Wesley Johnson             896      1                    -1.01
MIN       Nikola Pekovic             897      1                    -3.50
SAC       DeMarcus Cousins           898      1                    -1.28
SAC       Eugene Jeter               899      1                     #N/A
SAC       Hassan Whiteside           900      1                    -4.76
IND       Paul George                901      1                    -2.25
IND       Lance Stephenson           902      1                    -5.36
LAC       Al-Farouq Aminu            903      1                    -1.92
LAC       Eric Bledsoe               904      1                    -3.29
LAC       Willie Warren              905      1                    -6.48
LAL       Derrick Caracter           906      1                    -6.79
LAL       Devin Ebanks               907      1                    -5.61
MIA       Dexter Pittman             908      1                    -4.67
MIL       Darrington Hobson          909      0                     #N/A
MIL       Larry Sanders              910      1                    -2.94
UTA       Derrick Favors             911      1                    -0.67
NJN       Damion James               912      1                    -3.92
NJN       Ben Uzoh                   913      1                    -3.50
NOH       Quincy Pondexter           914      1                    -4.12
NYK       Landry Fields              915      1                    -5.28
DEN       Timofey Mozgov             916      1                    -3.50
NYK       Andy Rautins               917      1                    -5.19
OKC       Cole Aldrich               918      1                    -2.40
ORL       Daniel Orton               919      0                    -4.40
PHI       Craig Brackins             920      1                    -3.62
PHI       Evan Turner                921      1                    -0.22
PHX       Matt Janning               922      0                    -3.50
PHX       Gani Lawal                 923      1                    -5.85
PHX       Garret Siler               924      1                     #N/A
POR       Luke Babbitt               925      1                    -3.06
POR       Armon Johnson              926      1                    -4.85
POR       Elliot Williams            927      0                    -3.72
SAS       James Anderson             928      1                    -3.51
SAS       Gary Neal                  929      1                    -3.50
SAS       Tiago Splitter             930      1                     0.00
TOR       Solomon Alabi              931      1                    -6.17
TOR       Ed Davis                   932      1                    -2.68
UTA       Jeremy Evans               933      1                    -6.56
UTA       Gordon Hayward             934      1                    -2.09
WAS       Trevor Booker              935      1                    -3.82
WAS       Hamady NDiaye              936      1                    -6.63
WAS       Kevin Seraphin             937      1                    -3.18
WAS       John Wall                  938      1                     0.51
PHX       Zabian Dowdell             939      1                     #N/A
WAS       Larry Owens                940      1                     #N/A
POR       Chris Johnson              941      1                     #N/A
UTA       Marcus Cousin              942      1                     #N/A
NOH       Patrick Ewing Jr.          943      1                    -3.50

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 3:19 pm
by J.E.
here goes

Per possession error was calculated in the following way
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points)²
In case the matchupfile lumped many possessions together (happens often), the error becomes
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points/possessions)²*possessions

Thus, if there were 5 points scored in 4 possessions and the forecast was 1ppp we get
error=(1-5/4)²*5=(1-1.25)²*5

Simple homecourt
Per possession RMSE 0.5967
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 4.2678
RMSE 5.01481

For '10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.59529
With Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5767
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.693
RMSE 3.278

For 08-10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.5949
with Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5784
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.3968
RMSE 3.236

Biggest mistakes are Cleveland and Chicago, both were expected to be somewhat average.
Sessions, Gibson, Jamison and Parker were not rated as awful, only Hollins and Hickson were.
Chicago, to some extend at least, came out so strong because of Asik and Thibodeau

I didn't include coaches or playoff data yet

DSMok1, do you not have defensive numbers, too?

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 3:28 pm
by DSMok1
J.E. wrote:here goes

Per possession error was calculated in the following way
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points)²
In case the matchupfile lumped many possessions together (happens often), the error becomes
error=(expected_offensive_efficiency-actual_points/possessions)²*possessions

Thus, if there were 5 points scored in 4 possessions and the forecast was 1ppp we get
error=(1-5/4)²*5=(1-1.25)²*5

Simple homecourt
Per possession RMSE 0.5965
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 4.0270
RMSE 4.669

For '10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.59529
With Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5767
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.693
RMSE 3.278

For 08-10 ratings I get:
Per possession RMSE 0.5949
with Joe Sill's suggestion 0.5784
Team efficiency differential:
mean absolute error 2.3968
RMSE 3.236

Biggest mistakes are Cleveland and Chicago, both were expected to be somewhat average.
Sessions, Gibson, Jamison and Parker were not rated as awful, only Hollins and Hickson were.
Chicago, to some extend at least, came out so strong because of Asik and Thibodeau

I didn't include coaches or playoff data yet

DSMok1, do you not have defensive numbers, too?
I only projected overall +/-, not defense and offense individually.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 4:27 pm
by J.E.
DSMok1 wrote:I only projected overall +/-, not defense and offense individually.
Can you please repost that as csv. I don't need team identifier or name but I need the same thing between ID and rating. There are different amounts of spaces between rating and name the way you posted it.
"ID;rating" is best

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:07 pm
by DSMok1

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:44 pm
by J.E.
With DSMok1's numbers:
Doing what Joe Sill suggested 0.579
Per possession RMSE 0.5957
Mean absolute error ED 2.4518
RMSE ED 2.9387

Players with rating '#N/A' got -0.8

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:21 pm
by EvanZ
Here are mine:

ezPM ratings 2010

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:23 pm
by Crow
Thanks for the uploads to google docs and the ability to download in csv (or other formats). Hopefully all the files in this thread will be as accessible.

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:25 pm
by J.E.
EvanZ wrote:Here are mine:

ezPM ratings 2010
I don't think this is what you wanted it to be. Everything is in 1 big line and while there's a PID field listed at the top, no PID is actually listed for any player

Re: APBR Retrodiction Challenge for Summer 2011

Posted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:38 pm
by EvanZ
I took out the name column. How does this look?

https://spreadsheets0.google.com/spread ... output=csv