NBA draft prospects.

[Mathketball]

gfarkas, thanks for the advice. I think I might not have been entirely clear on how I built my formulas. I don't make any alterations to my formulas for given players. They are all the same for each position. I was talking about how I constructed my formulas to begin with. Basically I put my formulas together on theory without looking at actual players numbers to avoid being biased. Then after plugging many players in I looked for clear cases of guys being over valued and looked for trends in these cases. I then made some alterations to the formulas but I only made a change if I could honestly justify the change not just to make my results look better. I feel I would be able to strongly defend each stat in my formula and my reasoning for their weights. The fact that they are built on opinions of what's important could certainly introduce biases however I don't think there is any way around that. It's certainly a work in progress.

I like your take on blocked shots. I've heard some coaches say that shot blocking is something that cannot be taught because it is instinctual. It shows that a player has strong defensive instincts as well as good reaction time. These are definitely more innate traits. One area that shot blocking is kind of gray on is how well the player actually plays defense. A guy can average a lot of blocks but not be a great defender because he gambles for blocks.

Your take on dunks is interesting. I've never really thought of that before. Are college players dunk numbers available anywhere?

Thanks again for your insights. I appreciate it and enjoy the discussion.

[Statman]

Also, dunks are clearly more valuable than other baskets. Again, it comes down to intimidation. When a guy dunks the ball, the other team knows he means business... it makes a strong statement about the player's make-up and potential. Based on my objective insight, I would say dunks are worth 3 times as much as other baskets, and a system such as yours should adjust accordingly.

I wish they had dunk info for 2 reasons. One, it could help give insight on the more "athletic" players. Two, when taken away from the normal FG numbers - the it could give a better idea on how raw that player is offensively when looking at the resulting FG numbers (the kid's 60% FG% might be, say, 42% without the dunks).

[Mike G]

Don't take Gabe too seriously here.
He's just giving you a hard time.