APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2012 3:56 am**

*waits for Jeremy Lin*

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2012 4:41 am**

He might go in the MVP poll after tonight. Incredible.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2012 7:38 am**

My vote for the most improved goes to Jeremy Lin. I don't know how long this Tebow type fame will last but he looked great tonight against the Lakers.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:19 pm**

Lin didn't have many minutes until recently. Yet as of yesterday's posting, he had .57 eWins more than he'd have had at last year's rates. This just missed the cut (+.65 eW) for yesterday's installment.

Last year, he was good for .39 eW/484 min -- not enough to contribute much to a good team, perhaps, but still worth an NBA look.

Including last night's numbers, he's now at 2.17 eW/484. This is the neighborhood of Griffin, Duncan, Aldridge, and just above Carmelo.

He's now at .77 eW above last year's rates (in this year's minutes), so should make the top 15.

His per minute eW rate is up more than anyone's, in any minutes. Currently edging out John Lucas III (who was negative last year).

Posted: **Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:58 pm**

Alright, here's the Jeremy Lin edition, season 41% over:

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eW+    per36 rates    tm   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.65  Monroe,Greg    Det   .571   20.4  13.0   2.6   2.00      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
1.19  Mullens,Byron  Cha   .495   15.9   7.1    .8    .91  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
1.10  Gortat,Marcin  Phx   .574   18.6  12.0   1.0   1.76      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
.98 Varejao,Anderson Cle   .533   13.6  14.6   2.0   1.57      .550   10.6  11.8   1.5    .97
.96   Hayward,Gordon Uta   .506   13.8   4.4   4.4    .92      .568   11.1   4.1   2.2    .27

.95 Cousins,Demarcus Sac   .496   20.3  14.4   1.0   1.92      .474   16.7  12.1   3.0   1.31
.92 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   .549   26.0   9.0   3.0   2.23      .540   22.4   9.3   2.0   1.81
.91 Gallinari,Danilo Den   .583   20.2   6.4   3.0   1.55      .580   17.6   5.5   1.9   1.01
.90   Chalmers,Mario Mia   .641   16.4   3.8   5.7   1.07      .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49
.88   Lin,Jeremy     NYK   .563   24.8   4.4   8.4   2.10  GSW .450    6.8   3.5   4.1    .39

eW+    per36 rates    tm   Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.86   George,Paul    Ind   .576   16.4   7.0   2.8   1.18      .534   13.1   6.2   1.8    .68
.86   Pekovic,Nikola Min   .646   19.4  10.2    .6   1.31      .561   12.6   7.3    .9    .29
.86   Gasol,Marc     Mem   .542   16.5  10.4   2.7   1.68      .567   15.3   9.2   2.9   1.27
.84   West,Delonte   Dal   .510   15.2   4.2   5.9   1.18  Bos .529   10.8   2.9   4.8    .52
.83   Teague,Jeff    Atl   .548   16.4   2.6   5.8   1.14      .512   12.3   3.6   4.4    .68

.81   Mcgee,Javale   Was   .506   15.0  12.2    .5   1.67      .555   13.8  11.3    .6   1.16
.80   Crawford,Jamal Por   .496   20.4   2.5   5.0   1.25  Atl .536   16.8   2.1   3.3    .73
.79  Williams,Marvin Atl   .549   17.9   9.4   2.1   1.49      .542   14.5   6.8   1.7    .84
.73   Harrington,Al  Den   .557   18.5   7.7   1.7   1.20      .521   14.6   6.8   2.1    .73
.73   Jack,Jarrett   NOH   .510   17.4   4.2   6.0   1.24      .494   14.3   3.7   4.5    .79

And it may be the only way Salmons doesn't run away with 'most disimproved' is if he gets injured.

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eW+     per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.06  Salmons,John   Sac   .433    9.4   4.3   2.3    .24  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-.98   Odom,Lamar     Dal   .428   13.3   7.5   2.5    .77  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-.95   Nelson,Jameer  Orl   .456   12.3   3.3   7.4    .72      .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42
-.87   Hickson,J.J.   Sac   .427    9.2   9.5    .9    .49  Cle .494   16.9  11.8   1.4   1.26
-.86   Battier,Shane  Mia   .453    6.2   3.3   1.8   -.05  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62

-.83   Martin,Kevin   Hou   .543   22.3   3.6   3.0   1.32      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-.82   Scola,Luis     Hou   .507   20.5   7.6   2.2   1.20      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69
-.80  Belinelli,Marco NOH   .497   13.1   3.6   1.3    .29      .555   18.0   3.3   1.8    .77
-.76   Felton,Raymond Por   .445   13.0   2.7   7.9    .87  Den .517   14.7   3.6   8.7   1.28
-.73 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   .531    7.2   8.4   1.0    .15      .524    9.3  12.7   1.4    .64

-.69  Jackson,Stephen Mil   .466   15.0   4.0   3.8    .68  Cha .512   19.9   5.3   3.5   1.19
-.67   Artest,Ron     LAL   .364    7.4   4.1   2.6    .02      .480   11.1   4.4   2.9    .58
-.66   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal   .537   23.9   7.4   2.8   1.87      .600   28.9   8.2   3.0   2.28
-.65   Hayes,Chuck    Sac   .418    6.2   9.2   1.6    .27  Hou .545   10.5  11.2   3.8   1.16
-.64   Harris,Devin   Uta   .524   14.0   2.1   6.5    .81      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30

Sacto with 3 of 15 biggest losers.

Posted: **Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:15 pm**

To chronicle the Lin phenomenon, a quick update. Season .445 complete.

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eW+    per36 rates     tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.75  Monroe,Greg     Det   .567   20.8  12.6   2.5   1.97      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
1.24  Mullens,Byron   Cha   .484   15.6   7.3    .8    .90  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
1.24  Gortat,Marcin   Phx   .566   18.4  12.1   1.1   1.76      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
1.14  Lin,Jeremy      NYK   .562   24.7   4.4   9.6   2.12  GSW .450    6.8   3.5   4.1    .39
1.09  Pekovic,Nikola  Min   .628   19.5  10.5    .6   1.38      .561   12.6   7.3    .9    .29

1.05 Cousins,Demarcus Sac   .496   20.6  14.3   1.1   1.93      .474   16.7  12.1   3.0   1.31
1.03  Hayward,Gordon  Uta   .512   14.0   4.1   4.2    .90      .568   11.1   4.1   2.2    .27
1.01  Chalmers,Mario  Mia   .656   17.0   3.7   5.5   1.09      .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49
.98   McGee,Javale    Was   .526   16.0  12.1    .5   1.71      .555   13.8  11.3    .6   1.16
.98  Varejao,Anderson Cle   .533   13.7  14.6   2.0   1.57      .550   10.6  11.8   1.5    .97

eW+    per36 rates     tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.96   James,LeBron    Mia   .604   31.9   9.0   7.7   3.22      .581   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.79
.95   Teague,Jeff     Atl   .548   16.7   2.6   5.6   1.16      .512   12.3   3.6   4.4    .68
.91   West,Delonte    Dal   .506   15.1   4.1   5.9   1.19  Bos .529   10.8   2.9   4.8    .52
.91  Gallinari,Danilo Den   .583   20.2   6.3   3.0   1.54      .580   17.6   5.5   1.9   1.01
.86  Aldridge,Lamarcu Por   .549   25.9   9.0   3.0   2.21      .540   22.4   9.3   2.0   1.81

.84   Gasol,Marc      Mem   .543   16.6  10.2   2.7   1.63      .567   15.3   9.2   2.9   1.27
.83   George,Paul     Ind   .556   16.3   7.0   2.7   1.13      .534   13.1   6.2   1.8    .68
.82   Lucas,John      Chi   .476   17.3   3.4   5.3   1.07      .250    4.0   0.0   3.1   -.44
.82   Vasquez,Greivis NOH   .484   12.5   3.8   5.9    .81  Mem .488    8.8   2.9   5.4    .22
.82   Smith,Josh      Atl   .482   19.4  11.0   3.9   2.12      .531   19.3  10.1   3.5   1.74

Byron Mullens has reverted to his 2011 form, as his team slips toward historic ineptitude.
Nikola Pekovic (Min) is another astonishing development -- basically keeping up with Lin's rise this week.
And the continuing dismal outlook ranking:

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eW+     per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.19  Salmons,John   Sac   .420    9.0   4.3   2.3    .20  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-1.06  Odom,Lamar     Dal   .436   13.6   7.2   2.6    .78  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-1.04  Scola,Luis     Hou   .507   19.9   7.8   2.1   1.14      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69
-.94   Hickson,J.J.   Sac   .425    9.0   9.4    .9    .48  Cle .494   16.9  11.8   1.4   1.26
-.92   Felton,Raymond Por   .440   12.5   2.7   7.8    .82  Den .517   14.7   3.6   8.7   1.28

-.86   Battier,Shane  Mia   .487    6.8   3.4   1.7    .01  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62
-.84   Martin,Kevin   Hou   .554   22.8   3.6   3.0   1.36      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-.83   Nelson,Jameer  Orl   .473   12.9   3.6   7.8    .86      .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42
-.79   Harris,Devin   Uta   .522   13.8   2.1   6.3    .75      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30
-.79  Jackson,Stephen Mil   .462   14.5   4.1   3.8    .64  Cha .512   19.9   5.3   3.5   1.19

eW+     per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.77 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   .514    6.8   8.6   1.3    .16      .524    9.3  12.7   1.4    .64
-.74  Belinelli,Marco NOH   .511   13.9   3.5   1.3    .36      .555   18.0   3.3   1.8    .77
-.73   Hayes,Chuck    Sac   .400    5.9   9.0   1.5    .22  Hou .545   10.5  11.2   3.8   1.16
-.67   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal   .532   24.1   7.4   2.9   1.90      .600   28.9   8.2   3.0   2.28
-.66   Miller,Andre   Den   .522   12.2   4.7   8.1   1.05  Por .520   15.7   4.9   8.2   1.42

-.64   Artest,Ron     LAL   .393    8.1   4.1   2.6    .09      .480   11.1   4.4   2.9    .58
-.64 Tolliver,Anthony Min   .486    6.4   4.7    .5   -.22      .573   10.2   7.3   1.8    .49
-.63   Davis,Glen     Orl   .397   10.5   7.1   1.2    .35  Bos .490   14.6   6.9   1.4    .84
-.63   West,David     Ind   .506   17.3   9.0   3.0   1.44  NOH .549   22.6   9.1   2.5   1.79
-.61   Thomas,Tyrus   Cha   .410    9.4   7.5    .8    .59      .525   16.3   9.4   1.0   1.13
-.61 Stevenson,Deshaw NJN   .390    5.2   3.2   1.7   -.34  Dal .545   13.3   3.6   2.6    .51

Posted: **Sat Feb 18, 2012 12:44 am**

By RAPM it looks like Teague is the most improved on those in the poll and now a mild positive on non-prior informed.

But Galinari has by far the best RAPM and an equal WinShares / 48 improvement, so I voted for him.

Monroe is below -2 on both prior informed and non-prior informed RAPM. He shouldn't win this award IMO. But he has a good chance of doing so, in a world where RAPM is lightly checked and imperfect. Even by WinShares / 48 Monroe's improve is less than half Teague's and Galinari's.

Those measures certainly have different ranking than eWins. I wonder who looks best on an equal blend of say 3-6 metrics.

Posted: **Sat Feb 18, 2012 12:23 pm**

Players who attempt more FG per game than Monroe, and with a better FG% : LeBron, Griffin, Bynum.
His TS% is .576, and the rest of the Pistons are .086 lower.
His 10.7 Reb/36 by far leads the team, and they're an above-avg rebounding team.

The Pistons have dropped from -3.8 SRS last year to -7.5 this year. That creates the illusion of less improvement, in WS/48, from their players.
Teague and Gallinari are with improved teams, and this exaggerates WS improvement among individuals.

Posted: **Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:58 am**

kjb wrote:Yeah, I'd be shocked if McGee doesn't lead the league in goaltending calls. It felt like he was cutting down on goaltends in the first few games, but that feeling is gone.

I found this quite funny

Posted: **Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:35 pm**

The inevitable 'more than just a story' story continues to unfold.

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eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.04  Monroe,Greg     Det  .549   20.4  12.5   2.7   1.98      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
1.71  Lin,Jeremy      NYK  .566   24.3   4.2   9.6   2.14  GSW .450    6.8   3.5   4.1    .39
1.67  Gortat,Marcin   Phx  .575   18.7  12.2   1.1   1.86      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
1.55  Pekovic,Nikola  Min  .613   19.8  10.7    .7   1.52      .561   12.6   7.3    .9    .29
1.28 Cousins,Demarcus Sac  .486   20.4  14.4   1.2   1.97      .474   16.7  12.1   3.0   1.31

1.25  Mullens,Byron   Cha  .486   15.3   7.2    .8    .87  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
1.18  James,Lebron    Mia  .611   31.4   8.9   7.9   3.28      .581   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.79
1.18  Jefferson,Al    Uta  .505   22.7  11.4   2.3   2.35      .522   19.4  11.0   1.9   1.75
1.17  Durant,Kevin    Okl  .598   29.2   8.4   3.6   2.58      .576   28.4   7.0   2.7   2.13
1.15  Chalmers,Mario  Mia  .664   17.1   3.8   5.6   1.11      .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49

eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.14 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por  .544   25.8   9.2   3.1   2.29      .540   22.4   9.3   2.0   1.81
1.09  Hibbert,Roy     Ind  .534   19.1  12.4   2.4   1.89      .499   16.9  10.5   2.9   1.35
1.09  Gasol,Marc      Mem  .543   16.3  10.5   3.0   1.68      .567   15.3   9.2   2.9   1.27
1.07  George,Paul     Ind  .551   16.4   6.9   3.0   1.19      .534   13.1   6.2   1.8    .68
1.07  Mcgee,Javale    Was  .525   16.0  12.2    .7   1.72      .555   13.8  11.3    .6   1.16

.98   Hayward,Gordon  Uta  .506   13.3   4.0   4.2    .80      .568   11.1   4.1   2.2    .27
.98  Varejao,Anderson Cle  .533   13.7  14.3   2.1   1.57      .550   10.6  11.8   1.5    .97
.95   Anderson,Ryan   Orl  .595   22.6   9.3   1.2   1.86      .585   18.8   9.3   1.3   1.41
.93   Crawford,Jamal  Por  .506   19.6   2.6   5.3   1.23  Atl .536   16.8   2.1   3.3    .73
.93   Vasquez,Greivis NOH  .507   13.1   3.6   6.0    .79  Mem .488    8.8   2.9   5.4    .22

Kings with 2 of the 3 biggest dropoffs, another in the top (bottom) 9 :

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eW+     per36 rates    tm  Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.31  Salmons,John   Sac  .420    8.9   4.1   2.2    .17  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-1.28  Odom,Lamar     Dal  .425   12.7   7.0   2.7    .71  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-1.11  Hickson,J.J.   Sac  .417    8.4   9.0   1.0    .39  Cle .494   16.9  11.8   1.4   1.26
-1.08  Martin,Kevin   Hou  .557   22.4   3.4   3.0   1.31      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-1.01  Scola,Luis     Hou  .512   20.2   8.0   2.1   1.21      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69

-.99   Felton,Raymond Por  .452   12.9   2.7   7.9    .83  Den .517   14.7   3.6   8.7   1.28
-.97   Nelson,Jameer  Orl  .480   13.1   3.6   7.6    .86      .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42
-.95   Battier,Shane  Mia  .488    6.9   3.2   1.8   -.01  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62
-.92   Hayes,Chuck    Sac  .431    5.7   8.4   1.7    .17  Hou .545   10.5  11.2   3.8   1.16
-.91  Jackson,Stephen Mil  .454   14.0   4.2   3.6    .57  Cha .512   19.9   5.3   3.5   1.19

eW+     per36 rates    tm  Eff%    Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.87   Harris,Devin   Uta  .545   14.1   2.1   6.6    .77      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30
-.84   Miller,Andre   Den  .499   11.9   4.5   8.4   1.02  Por .520   15.7   4.9   8.2   1.42
-.81 Perkins,Kendrick Okl  .520    6.7   9.0   1.4    .18      .524    9.3  12.7   1.4    .64
-.80 Stevenson,Deshaw NJN  .396    5.4   3.9   1.6   -.30  Dal .545   13.3   3.6   2.6    .51
-.74   Artest,Ron     LAL  .387    7.8   4.3   2.7    .09      .480   11.1   4.4   2.9    .58

-.72   Evans,Reggie   LAC  .470    3.6  11.1    .6    .01  Tor .449    5.2  17.1   1.6    .84
-.68   Thomas,Tyrus   Cha  .396    9.2   7.5    .8    .56      .525   16.3   9.4   1.0   1.13
-.66 Tolliver,Anthony Min  .481    6.5   4.8    .5   -.23      .573   10.2   7.3   1.8    .49
-.66  Belinelli,Marco NOH  .527   14.8   3.5   1.3    .45      .555   18.0   3.3   1.8    .77
-.66   Mohammed,Nazr  Okl  .479    8.0   7.5    .8    .30      .531   15.4  11.2    .6   1.11
-.66   Lewis,Rashard  Was  .453   10.4   5.5   1.1    .29      .530   14.2   6.3   1.8    .73

Counting 261 players who are with the same team as last year: avg eW/484 has risen from .85 to .88, netting +26.2 eWins thus far.
Of 103 players with new teams, avg e484 is down from .60 to .48, netting -10.0 eWins from last year to this.

Posted: **Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:32 pm**

J.E. wrote:
kjb wrote:Yeah, I'd be shocked if McGee doesn't lead the league in goaltending calls. It felt like he was cutting down on goaltends in the first few games, but that feeling is gone.
I found this quite funny

Yeah. I think Randy Wittman almost blew a vein in his forehead when that play happened. In his post-game, Wittman made the point that the goaltend was actually the least egregious part of that play. Watch McGee's screen/roll...well...I hesitate to call it "defense" but there really isn't another word to use there.

Posted: **Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:33 am**

I added Lin as a choice, based on the earlier request and his standing on Mike's metric.

Posted: **Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:15 am**

I guess it was well time to update the poll candidates. I've changed it to match the latest top 10 in eWins gained.
All votes were deleted during Crow's editing. In other polls, it seems they remain after being edited by the author.
Several players are now listed who don't "qualify" by the nebulous standards around the official award: Established stars who have kicked it up a notch, or who have bounced back to a previous form or trajectory.
But this isn't about predicting voters; it's about players who have improved from last season to this. All players have an equal crack at this.

Posted: **Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:22 pm**

I just posted a huge interactive ASPM take on the most improved player: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-a ... omparison/

It looks like Pekovic is the leader at the moment, by ASPM/VORP.

Posted: **Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:06 am**

Is Pekovic your leader on a per minute basis? Or per minute * minutes?

APBRmetrics

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