APBRmetrics

I actually didn't suppose it was a possibility that all teams were weak defensively in 1992; just that there would be at least one other possible explanation for higher and lower league ORtg and DRtg in various seasons. And as some of us would suppose, a lot of reasons, other than "no one played defense back then".

Against opening-round opponent Miami, the one defensive weakling in the Bulls' path, Jordan averaged 45 points, vs 99.3 for the Heat. What other player has scored 45% of what an opposing team has scored for a playoff series?

In their first game, Jordan outscored Miami starters Steve Smith and Brian Shaw, 46-34.
In game 2, it was 33-13, as Jordan played just 34 minutes.
And in the finale, 56-37.

The Knicks threw 4 guards at Jordan and the Bulls : Gerald Wilkins, Mark Jackson, John Starks, and Greg Anthony.
In game 1, they outscored Jordan 34-31 (NY wins by 5)
Game 2, Jordan 27, NY4 26 : Chi by 8.
Game 3: NY4 35, Jordan 31 -- Chi by 8
game 4: NY4 39, MJ 29 -- NY by 7
game 5: NY4 40, MJ 37 -- Chi by 8
game 6: NY4 43, MJ 21 -- NY by 14 as Starks scores 27
game 7: Jordan 42, NY4 35 -- Chi by 29

Jordan didn't manage to outscore all 4 of these guys in the series, but they played more than twice as many minutes.

Against the Cavs, in game one, Jordan, Price and Ehlo all went 40 minutes. Jordan outscored them 33-26, and the Bulls won by 14.
In game 2, Price and Ehlo beat Jordan 29-20, Cavs by 26.
Game 3, 36-36, Bulls by 9
Game 4, MJ 35, Cle 34, but Cavs win by 14
Game 5, MJ by 37-36, Bulls win by 23
Game 6, MJ 29-28, Bulls by 5
Jordan outscored Price + Ehlo by 1 point in this series.

The Blazers' Clyde Drexler was runner-up for MVP, and many thought he was robbed. He was certainly the better 3-point shooter -- up to then.
Game 1: Jordan 39, Porter + Drexler 29 -- Bulls by 33
Game 2: Por 50, MJ 39, Por by 11 in OT
Game 3: Por 39, Jordan 29, but Bulls win by 10
Game 4: Por 35, MJ 32, Por by 5
Game 5: Por 47, MJ 46, Bulls by 13
Game 6: Por 46, MJ 33, Bulls by 4

Jordan couldn't outscore every backcourt every night, but when he came close the Bulls usually won.
He certainly had his hands full on both ends of the court. I doubt that any opposing guard had smaller reduction in rates than Jordan had, in any series.

Mike G wrote: Kobe has never had a 27.2 PER for a postseason. Once for a regular season.
After Jordan's 27.2 in 1992, we find Karl Malone at 25.0 in the #2 slot.

To me it just looks like you don't want to admit you got caught in a bad spot.

Kobe was superior in 2009, because his usage-rate adjusted PER was much better. Not to mention their PERs are nearly the same but Kobe has far less touches.

Bryant's offensive rating is 10+ points above league average, while still being a high-usage player against better defenses. Jordan on the other hand averaged a 111-112 rating for 2009 standards, which is pretty pathetic actually for him.

... MJ's opponents averaged 110.4 defensively.
Yes, after playing the Bulls.
In the regular season, they were #2 (NY), #3 (Por), #11 (Cle) and #24 (Mia).
That's 13 of 22 games vs the #2-3 defensive teams. Too random?

So Kobe didn't play games against his opponents?? I'm not following your logic at all, it seems you simply enjoy using unsorted numbers.

And after Kobe ravages his opponents at an even higher level, they don't average a 110.4 defensive rating, they averaged just over 106.1 . So again your argument lacks a pleasant flow. No disrespect intended.

Pippen had a better PER than Horace Grant in 1992, but he was the inferior player. Raw numbers mean nothing, and all great stats also adjust for different eras.

kjb wrote:What do "today's standards" have to do with assessing teams in 1992? Shouldn't be teams of one time be compared to teams of their own time? As in, the Knicks and Blazers were both excellent defensive teams in 1992, and Cleveland was better than average.

Raw offensive and defensive ratings are worthless, since they have to be adjusted for league environment.

I'm simply pointing out Playoff 2009 Kobe was a better offensive player than Playoff 1992 Jordan. This is due to a variety of factors which include the softness of MJ's opponents and the large dip in Jordan's offensive-rating. Kobe's defensive figures aren't far off Jordan's either.

Mike's theories aren't fitting for me, since 09 Kobe also beat up his opponents. Kobe simply plays in a more defensive setting.

Mike G wrote: Jordan couldn't outscore every backcourt every night, but when he came close the Bulls usually won.
He certainly had his hands full on both ends of the court. I doubt that any opposing guard had smaller reduction in rates than Jordan had, in any series.

It doesn't matter, the Denver Nuggets look like defensive juggernauts next to those lightweights.

Kobe is the real deal, 2001 Kobe also usurps 1992 Jordan. Kobe has been more efficient than Jordan multiple times.

I haven't followed this thread closely and I am not offering a comment precisely tuned to the nuances of the discussion but I will note that Jordan is #1 all-time on winshares per 48 minutes and Kobe is 31st. Jordan has 3 of the top 8 single season performances of all-time and 8 of the top 22 while Kobe's best is 205th. http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... eason.html

Kobe's career offensive rating is 112 and his best season was 115. Jordan had 118 for his career and his best was 125.


Jordan in the 92 playoffs had slightly higher eFG% and TS% than Bryant in 2009.

EvanZ wrote:It would be great if we had 25 years of play-by-play data and could calculate RAPM going all the way back to '92. Oh, well.

The league does or could from their video collection. If they are embracing very extensive tracking for the future, they could also go back and help their teams learn more from the past.

If that's all you were saying, you probably could have left out the gratuitous "ball hogging" crap.

Kobe had a terrific playoffs that year. Perhaps it's illustrative of the distance between Jordan and Kobe that Kobe's best postseason was about as good -- arguably a shade better -- than one of Jordan's worst.

Why did Jordan's Usg% increase so much in the '92 playoffs, relative to the regular season?
It wasn't unusual that it increased, but the magnitude of that increase would be his career high.Recalling that '91 and '96 were relatively easy championship runs for the Bulls, note that those were the years his playoff Usg% actually was lower than his season's.
Jordan's 1992 season actually had his lowest Usg%, as the team moved to unprecedented heights.
Their '92 ORtg was a franchise-history best 115.5, as was their SRS (until 1996), at 10.1

According to team SRS for the year, they should have breezed over the Knicks (by some 7 ppg) and the Cavs (by 5), but both teams presented big problems. Especially NY.
I recall brutal matchups with the Knicks. Mason and Starks, future all-stars, were coming off the bench.

I haven't broken it down by series, but here are the Bulls' Reg-Sea and Playoff WS/48, according to b-r.com; ranked in order of playoff over-achievement.Basically the whole team saw less efficiency or productivity, or both. On average, a player probably drops .020 to .025 WS/48, from season to playoff.
Maybe this is the basis for claiming Jordan had a weak postseason, since all other stats say he did fine.
The one element that was notably worse in his stat line was Turnovers: from 9% of possessions in the RS, to 11% in playoffs.
So is the majority of his WS decline team related? They went from a .800 (pythagorean) RS to a .709 PO ; but that's quite normal.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _1992.html

Crow wrote:I haven't followed this thread closely and I am not offering a comment precisely tuned to the nuances of the discussion but I will note that Jordan is #1 all-time on winshares per 48 minutes

As I suspect it seems people are unwilling to criticize Jordan at all, but Kobe beats him here in this thread. I have no problems correcting anyone that automatically assumes Kobe is always worse. As always no disrespect meant.

and Kobe is 31st. Jordan has 3 of the top 8 single season performances of all-time and 8 of the top 22 while Kobe's best is 205th. http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... eason.html

And Kobe's .238 WS/48 is better. Honestly I don't get your post.

Kobe's a better player in this discussion, Jordan's career playoff WS/48 would also be lower btw, if he had gotten farther in the playoffs instead of losing in the first round as a youngster. No need to get defensive about Kobe. Kobe is a legit superstar, with better postseason performances than a prime Karl Malone and KG.

No one is saying Kobe is historically better than Jordan.

Kobe's career offensive rating is 112 and his best season was 115. Jordan had 118 for his career and his best was 125.


Jordan in the 92 playoffs had slightly higher eFG% and TS% than Bryant in 2009.

Jordan's offensive rating is about 111 in 2009. Not looking too good, and raw eFG% doesn't matter. It is time the same standards applied to both players, all the time.

Kobe played in a much better defensive era, to try to act like they're in the same environment is incongruent with the truth.

Crow wrote:

EvanZ wrote:It would be great if we had 25 years of play-by-play data and could calculate RAPM going all the way back to '92. Oh, well.

The league does or could from their video collection. If they are embracing very extensive tracking for the future, they could also go back and help their teams learn more from the past.

Sure I welcome anything.

Mike G wrote:Basically the whole team saw less efficiency or productivity, or both. On average, a player probably drops .020 to .025 WS/48, from season to playoff.
Maybe this is the basis for claiming Jordan had a weak postseason, since all other stats say he did fine.
The one element that was notably worse in his stat line was Turnovers: from 9% of possessions in the RS, to 11% in playoffs.
So is the majority of his WS decline team related? They went from a .800 (pythagorean) RS to a .709 PO ; but that's quite normal.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _1992.html

Interesting, although his defensive rating doesn't seem to fall off much. His team still did a good enough job defensively.

Most of the decline is just offensive really.

kjb wrote:If that's all you were saying, you probably could have left out the gratuitous "ball hogging" crap.

Kobe had a terrific playoffs that year. Perhaps it's illustrative of the distance between Jordan and Kobe that Kobe's best postseason was about as good -- arguably a shade better -- than one of Jordan's worst.

They're both ballhogs, I'm completely indifferent on this matter. When Jordan is playing below Kobe and using more playoff touches than Kobe ever did, it should be even more valid to call him a hog.

Kobe's best postseason might not even be 2009.

Regarding the '92 Bulls' large decline in WS/48 from season to playoffs, some part of the mystery can be explained.

In the season, their pythagorean wins were 66, but their WS add up to 69. On average, each player's WS and WS/48 are pumped up by 4.3%
In playoffs, their pt-diff suggested 15.6 wins (in 22 G), yet their WS add up to just 15.1 -- shorted by an avg of 3%

Two rather small factors, but in combination, their playoff WS/48 are reduced by 7.6% relative to their season WS/48.
The b-r.com page shows that Jordan's WS/48 fell from .274 to .216, season to postseason.
After 'correcting' by the factors shown, it drops from .263 to .223
Rather than a drop of .058, it's a drop of .040

And the Bulls' total dropoff was not .031, but .025 --consistent with their PythW% and with historic averages.

I don't find much use for the "ballhog" label. Both guys had the role of scoring. Taking shots in that context isn't "hogging," it's doing their job. And don't run this "I'm indifferent" bull -- you're anything but.

As for criticizing Jordan -- I have no problem doing it. I respected his game, but never liked him much. I liked him less and respected him less when I covered his comeback with the Wizards and saw at reasonably close range what kind of guy he was. I don't know who is "assuming Kobe is always worse" in a comparison with Jordan. I think Jordan comes out ahead in most comparisons between the two, but I wouldn't say "always" or "every."

kjb (if that's your real name), you are missing the point. What this thread clearly establishes is:

... Kobe beats him here in this thread.

Kobe's a better player in this discussion...

So what do season and playoff performances have to do with anything? This thread is what matters!!

To me it just looks like you don't want to admit you got caught in a bad spot.

Kobe was superior in 2009, because his usage-rate adjusted PER was much better. Not to mention their PERs are nearly the same but Kobe has far less touches.

This is 2 whole, entire arguments, and one of them is not even mentioned.

Mike: You're right about something -- I have definitely lost track of the point of this thread.

In one of Bill Russell's autobiography's, he tells of trying to stop Oscar Robertson on a fast break. Russell had gotten back, and was between Oscar and the basket.
Their eyes met and stayed fixed, as both tried to figure out the other guy's next move.
Without taking his eyes off of Russell's, Oscar just shot and made the basket. Russell did not react at all.

Now, is there a Jordan or a Kobe story like that? LeBron or Wade or Durant?

kjb wrote:I don't find much use for the "ballhog" label. Both guys had the role of scoring. Taking shots in that context isn't "hogging," it's doing their job. And don't run this "I'm indifferent" bull -- you're anything but.

Well this isn't a career comparison, this is a criticism of Mike G and his empty assumptions. Some of Mike G's posts are great, but I disagree here. Read the thread more carefully or simply don't waste your energy, because it seems you don't know what the debate is about.

Indeed I am indifferent, because 92 Jordan didn't have to be an inefficient "Scorer", that's not a great argument. I'm not a Kobe fan or Jordan fan, so I do think I have the higher ground here.

Clearly I've shown MJ was more of a mindless hog in this post-season than Bryant ever was, and most people think Kobe is a ballhog, so I was putting it in perspective. A very ironic perspective.

As for criticizing Jordan -- I have no problem doing it.

Don't get so defensive then, Jordan's playing style was not the most savvy.

How did Jordan get 27 PER if he was playing at a pre-peak Kobe level? He hogged the heck out of that ball.

I respected his game, but never liked him much. I liked him less and respected him less when I covered his comeback with the Wizards and saw at reasonably close range what kind of guy he was. I don't know who is "assuming Kobe is always worse" in a comparison with Jordan. I think Jordan comes out ahead in most comparisons between the two, but I wouldn't say "always" or "every."

Crow appeared threatened by the concept that Jordan was an inefficient hog, and went on a tangent about career stats for some reason. He displayed little desire to stay on topic or even read prior arguments in this discussion, hence the charge. This is obviously an outlier for him, and I like reading his input normally.

This thread is about the weakness of MJ's 92 season, not Kobe's superior prime. Nor did I say Kobe was a better overall player in the long-run. But he certainly is underrated by some, and Jordan is overrated by others.

Mike G wrote:kjb (if that's your real name), you are missing the point. What this thread clearly establishes is:

... Kobe beats him here in this thread.

Kobe's a better player in this discussion...

So what do season and playoff performances have to do with anything? This thread is what matters!!

To me it just looks like you don't want to admit you got caught in a bad spot.

Kobe was superior in 2009, because his usage-rate adjusted PER was much better. Not to mention their PERs are nearly the same but Kobe has far less touches.

This is 2 whole, entire arguments, and one of them is not even mentioned.

He is missing the point, virtually everything you assumed about Kobe was wrong. You threw out random arguments against Kobe because he frustrates you I guess? The softness of Jordan's era also seemed to trouble you, I suppose. Your accusations turned out to be invalid, and you didn't want to admit you got caught in a bad spot.

Jordan comes off as weak in 1992 and my original post was about the gimmicky nature and inaccurate analysis in Paine's article (ignoring the playoffs, etc.). Jordan also had an Allen Iverson-like shooting percentage on the dream team.

Mike G wrote:In one of Bill Russell's autobiography's, he tells of trying to stop Oscar Robertson on a fast break. Russell had gotten back, and was between Oscar and the basket.
Their eyes met and stayed fixed, as both tried to figure out the other guy's next move.
Without taking his eyes off of Russell's, Oscar just shot and made the basket. Russell did not react at all.

Now, is there a Jordan or a Kobe story like that? LeBron or Wade or Durant?

Not really a fan of the 60's. Hehe. :]