APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Oct 25, 2013 3:40 pm**

As to what constitutes a player's Peak, nobody's offered a suggestion. Some like Best 3 years, 5 yrs, 7, etc.
http://bkref.com/tiny/vEBnq
Copy/pasting the top 500 WS season, separating by player, and summing their WS in Best year, best 2 years, and etc -- then ranking them in each "interval" (not necessarily consecutive years):

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.WS    1 year     WS   2 year      WS   3 year     WS   4 year      WS   5 year
25.4   Kareem     48   Wilt        70   Wilt       91   Wilt       112   Wilt
25.0   Wilt       48   Kareem      70   Kareem     88   Kareem     106   Kareem
23.4   Mikan      45   Mikan       65   Mikan      82   Jordan     101   Jordan
21.2   Jordan     42   Jordan      62   Jordan     80   Mikan       94   Mikan
20.6   Oscar      40   LeBron      58   LeBron     74   LeBron      90   LeBron
20.3   LeBron     38   Robinson    56   Robinson   73   Robinson    89   Oscar
20.0   Robinson   38   Oscar       55   Oscar      72   Oscar       88   Robinson
18.9   Durant     36   Paul        50   Shaq       66   Nowitzki    80   Nowitzki
18.6   Feerick    36   Groza       50   Barkley    65   Garnett     80   Malone
18.6   Shaq       36   Shaq        50   Nowitzki   65   Barkley     78   Barkley
18.3   Paul       35   Durant      50   Garnett    65   Malone      78   Garnett
18.3   Garnett    34   Garnett     50   Paul       64   Shaq        78   Shaq
18.3   Johnston   34   Duncan      50   Russell    64   Paul        77   Russell
18.0   Groza      34   Russell     49   West       64   Magic       77   Magic
17.8   McAdoo     34   Barkley     49   Johnston   64   Russell     77   Paul
17.8   Duncan     34   Nowitzki    49   Malone     63   West        77   Johnston
17.7   Nowitzki   34   West        49   Magic      63   Johnston    76   West
17.3   Russell    34   Johnston    48   Duncan     62   Bird        76   Bird
17.3   Barkley    33   McAdoo      47   Durant     61   Duncan      74   Erving
17.1   West       33   Malone      47   Bird       60   Erving      74   Duncan
                                       
.WS   6 year      WS   7 year      WS   8 year     WS   9 year      WS   10 year
133  Wilt        152   Wilt       170   Wilt      187   Wilt       203   Wilt
123  Kareem      138   Kareem     154   Jordan    171   Jordan     187   Jordan
119  Jordan      137   Jordan     152   Kareem    166   Kareem     180   Kareem
107  Mikan       120   LeBron     134   LeBron    148   LeBron     155   Oscar
105  LeBron      118   Oscar      130   Oscar     143   Oscar      154   Malone
104  Oscar       116   Robinson   129   Robinson  142   Robinson   154   Robinson
102  Robinson    110   Malone     126   Malone    141   Malone     142   Nowitzki
95   Malone      107   Nowitzki   119   Nowitzki  130   Nowitzki   138   Russell
94   Nowitzki    103   Russell    115   Russell   127   Russell    136   Stockton
91   Shaq        102   Garnett    114   Magic     125   Stockton   133   Duncan
91   Garnett     102   Barkley    114   Garnett   125   Johnson    130   Gilmore
90   Barkley     102   West       114   West      122   Duncan         
90   Russell     102   Magic      113   Bird      119   Gilmore         
90   Magic       102   Shaq       112   Stockton  118   Pettit         
89   Bird        102   Bird       111   Duncan                  
89   West         99   Duncan     109   Erving                  
88   Johnston     99   Stockton   108   Gilmore                  
87   Duncan       98   Erving     107   Pettit                  
86   Erving       96   Pettit     105   Kobe                  
86   Stockton     96   Gilmore     94   Reggie

These are seasons with at least 10.9 NBA Win Shares. If a player has no Nth such season, he disappears from the list. Obviously LeBron, with 148 WS in 9 years would have at least 148 in 10 years.
ABA seasons: I factored ABA WS by .95 for 1976, .90 for 1975 ... down to .55 for 1968, to get roughly equivalent NBA WS. Just 18 ABA player-seasons were thus added to the 500 from NBA.

The rest of the exercise:

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WS    11 year      WS   12 year      WS   13 year
218   Wilt        232   Wilt        245   Wilt
201   Jordan      205   Kareem      216   Kareem
193   Kareem      181   Malone      192   Malone
168   Malone                  
167   Oscar                  
152   Nowitzki                  
149   Russell                  
141   Gilmore

Again, those dropping off the list did not have a 12th year above 10.9 WS
And of course, postseasons are an entire different story.

Posted: **Fri Oct 25, 2013 4:18 pm**

For perspective: Players with exactly one season at >10.9 WS: Horford, Mourning, Kirilenko, Penny, Ben Wallace, King, Bobby Jones, Wanzer, Roy, Brent Barry, Buck Williams, Mullin, Webber, Laettner, Barros, Bing, Cowens, Rodman, Deron Williams, Rose, Schrempf, Mutombo, Goodrich, McGinnis, Yardley, Gerald Wallace, Gus Williams, Greer, Hersey Hawkins, Horace Grant, Isiah, Sikma, Harden, James Silas, Kidd, Hornacek, Kenny Anderson, Love, Kiki, Aldridge, Nance, Hudson, Deng, Marc Gasol, Price, Riordan, Blaylock, Peja, Rasheed, Guerin, Parish, Tomjanovich, Westbrook, Cassell, Sam Jones, Haywood, Steph Curry, Marbury, Brandon, Chambers, Unseld, Yao

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 1:23 pm**

We have stalled out at 12 voters and 60 votes.
There's a 3-way tie for 3rd (Kareem, Wilt, Russell), so I'm inclined to wait until this logjam has separated.
I suppose there's no real philosophical objection to such ties -- I mean, who really can say one was better or less great? -- my hope was that we'd not have tied rankings.

Per 36 minutes, after adjusting for game environment (pts, reb), Bill Russell's rates most resemble these:

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diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Bill Russell    12.6   14.6   3.8   2.5   1.5   2.9   4.0

.53   Bill Walton     15.7   12.8   4.0   3.5   1.0   3.6   2.7
.57   Nate Thurmond   13.4   11.9   2.7   2.8    .6   2.4   3.0
.67   Maurice Stokes  12.6   13.5   5.4   3.9   1.9   2.9   2.1
.67   Marcus Camby    11.3   12.7   2.1   3.4   1.2   1.7   2.9
.76   Jerry Lucas     15.5   11.9   3.1   2.8   1.4   2.6   1.8

.92   Joakim Noah     13.1   12.3   2.6   3.7   1.0   2.0   1.7
1.05  Elmore Smith    14.2   10.7   1.6   3.9   1.0   2.6   3.5
1.06  Sam Lacey       10.5   10.4   4.1   3.9   1.6   3.0   1.8
1.15  Andrew Bogut    14.3   11.4   2.4   3.7    .8   2.2   1.8
1.15  Vlade Divac     14.3    9.9   3.6   3.8   1.3   2.6   1.7

None of these are especially close. Would Bogut, Noah, Camby, or Divac have led a team to multiple titles in a lesser league? It depends on their teammates and the league, of course.

It's even harder to find a credible similar in equivalent career totals. These include playoffs (and estimates) --

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diff   career equiv.   ePts     eReb   eAst    PF     Stl    TO     Blk
.00    Bill Russell   16,034   19717   4991   3383   1916   3609   4984

1.72   Elvin Hayes    26,607   15573   2481   4580   1454   3787   3016
1.78   David Robinson 25,040   12193   2799   3246   1546   2717   3286
1.78   Artis Gilmore  26,006   16335   3158   4864    846   5399   3197
1.79   Robert Parish  25,909   16861   2278   5084   1374   3709   2688
1.92   Patrick Ewing  28,669   13776   2526   4563   1264   3904   3223

2.14  Hakeem Olajuwon 30,781   15631   3462   4957   2412   4111   4327
2.55   Bob Pettit     25,340   12234   2968   3231   1165   2999   1642
2.68   Elgin Baylor   24,623   10521   4246   3235   1621   3298   1542
2.71  Dikembe Mutombo 14,552   14272   1411   3735    550   2400   3654
2.72   Julius Erving  31,815   11035   5620   4039   2746   4756   2434

In this list is one player (Olajuwon) who has received a single one of our top-5 votes.
Thurmond is #24 in the eTotals list, just by a much 'smaller' career.
Mutombo is #12 in the per36 list, largely due to his very low Assist rate.

Another way to phrase the question above might be: If Bill Russell has mediocre teammates in a league of 25-30 teams, is he more than a franchise cornerstone? Is he much more than a journeyman defensive specialist?

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 4:03 pm**

My top 5 would be Jordan, Chamberlain, Bird, Magic, Iverson.

Also surprised by how many votes LeBron James got. But I guess it's no different with my Iverson choice. I give more value to players' primes than their whole careers. I don't think anybody besides Iverson and Jordan could have carried 2001 Philly to Finals and win a game at LA.

I think that's why Shaq thinks he's one of the top 5 ever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ2jlhwpR0

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:26 pm**

Wouldn't even have Iverson top 25, let alone top 5

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:28 pm**

Yeah, I'm not sure a real case can be made for AI to be anywhere near...

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:17 pm**

I see votes for Wade, Paul and I think even worse for Wade and Paul than what you think about Iverson. I don't consider them in top 50 list. I really think post-Jordan era has full of overrated players because of NBA's politics. Only Shaq, Iverson, Duncan, Garnett, Kobe and perhaps James should be among the elites.

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:50 pm**

permaximum wrote:My top 5 would be Jordan, Chamberlain, Bird, Magic, Iverson.

Also surprised by how many votes LeBron James got. But I guess it's no different with my Iverson choice. I give more value to players' primes than their whole careers. I don't think anybody besides Iverson and Jordan could have carried 2001 Philly to Finals and win a game at LA.

I think that's why Shaq thinks he's one of the top 5 ever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ2jlhwpR0

Aside from whether team level achievements are a good measure of individuals (and how weak the East was at that time and how tight two of those series were).

That team was designed for Iverson. The 76ers tried to build with conventional 2nd/3rd options (such as Derrick Coleman, Jerry Stackhouse, Joe Smith, Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes, Toni Kukoc, Keith Van Horn, Chris Webber and other scorers like Corliss Williamson, Clarence Weatherspoon) and Iverson couldn't productively coexist with them (not that these were great players but they were more highly rated than the defensive minded guys in '01 like Snow and McKie). Not only did the team not succeed, their values went down whilst playing with AI (some of that was natural given age, but often it wasn't). Iverson needed to play with good defensive players who didn't want the ball on offense to get the best out of him. Only with Carmelo, later in his career did he show any signs of working well with another scorer.

Also Shaq isn't a serious (or good) basketball analyst.

I don't agree with the Paul, Wade picks but I can sort of semi see a case (ish) with certain criteria in so far as having great peaks (Paul has the best PER and WS/48 season by a point guard, Wade is one of 7 guys with a 30+ PER season) though even then I wouldn't pick them (certainly not Wade). But even at his peak (whenever you think that is) Iverson wasn't at that level because he was too inefficient (middling at best %s, high turnovers).

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:18 pm**

permaximum wrote:I see votes for Wade, Paul and I think even worse for Wade and Paul than what you think about Iverson. I don't consider them in top 50 list. I really think post-Jordan era has full of overrated players because of NBA's politics. Only Shaq, Iverson, Duncan, Garnett, Kobe and perhaps James should be among the elites.

huh? This makes no sense.

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:33 pm**

My top 5 is Jordan, Russell, LeBron, Magic, and Kareem with Wilt, Shaq, Duncan, and Bird just missing the cut. Seems like that's the general consensus too, though I'm pretty surprised that Russell isn't (at least closer to) unanimous. The guy won titles in 11 of his 13 seasons.

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:38 pm**

permaximum wrote:My top 5 would be Jordan, Chamberlain, Bird, Magic, Iverson.

Also surprised by how many votes LeBron James got. But I guess it's no different with my Iverson choice. I give more value to players' primes than their whole careers. I don't think anybody besides Iverson and Jordan could have carried 2001 Philly to Finals and win a game at LA.

I think that's why Shaq thinks he's one of the top 5 ever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ2jlhwpR0

I'd love to see a well reasoned argument addressing why Allen Iverson is a top 5 all time player ahead of Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Shaq, LeBron James, Hakeem Olajuwon, etc etc

Posted: **Sun Oct 27, 2013 11:47 pm**

jbrocato23 wrote:My top 5 is Jordan, Russell, LeBron, Magic, and Kareem with Wilt, Shaq, Duncan, and Bird just missing the cut. Seems like that's the general consensus too, though I'm pretty surprised that Russell isn't (at least closer to) unanimous. The guy won titles in 11 of his 13 seasons.

My rationale for Russell outside the top 5.

Firstly I'd accept he is in all probabililty the best defensive player ever. And an all time great rebounder. And Boston won their titles primarily with defense.

However, Russell was a drag on O. For most of his career he was the worst or near worst ts% center (amongst those playing 30+ minutes) in the league and worst or near worst for usage
1961: 4 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36, 3rd in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1962: 5 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36 (ahead of Kerr), 4th in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1963: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1964: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1965: 9 qualifying centers: 9th in fga/36 , 6th in ts% (ahead of Jim Barnes -center status dubious-, Nate Thurmond, Reggie Harding) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1966: 7 qualifying centers: 7th in fga/36, 7th in ts% http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1967: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 5th in ts% (ahead of Imhoff, Thurmond, LeRoy Ellis) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1968: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 8th in ts% http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct
1969: 11 qualifying centers: 11th in fga/36, 10th in ts% (ahead of Thurmond) http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct

Okay scoring isn't all of offense but it's a fairly big part. He surely contributed a lot on the offensive boards (though from the above you might argue (1) That a Russell offensive board was less valuable than one from someone more likely to put it back in, and (2) that his offensive boards were more easily got because he might not always have been guarded and thus boxed out, given how rarely he shot). He has strong assist numbers (and an annecdotal status as Boston's post-Cousy playmaker) but the stats are (1) partially boosted by high minutes, (2) partially boosted by high pace. Finally you might suggest that his numbers were boosted by Boston score-keeping (certainly Harvey Pollack thought Russell's rebound numbers were soft). Despite many noted scorers Boston's offense was never that special (by the advanced metric data we have though I suspect they're somewhat underrated because I suspect they were a low turnover team) which hardly supports the notion of Russell as a special playmaker (and does support the notion that Jones, Havlicek, Howell, Nelson et al were making up for Russell being somewhat of a drag on O).

I don't have time to fully flesh out other arguments but the other main part is that Boston had good deep teams. How much credit can we confidently assign to Russell?

BTW obviously all this seems hypercritical, it's all the negatives presented in the most negative way. Obviously he was a great player and did contribute to the offense through passing and rebounding, I just think its worth asking to what degree this covers up for his significant scoring deficiencies and that combined with a lack of clarity in measures of his influence mean he's not (presently) in my top 5. I'd be interested in the case for Russell over Chamberlain. Also to me I'm not sure what Magic did better than Oscar, I certainly don't see the disparity that puts Magic so far ahead (Magic having 8 votes, Robertson just 1 other vote).

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:44 am**

MW00 wrote:
permaximum wrote:My top 5 would be Jordan, Chamberlain, Bird, Magic, Iverson.

Also surprised by how many votes LeBron James got. But I guess it's no different with my Iverson choice. I give more value to players' primes than their whole careers. I don't think anybody besides Iverson and Jordan could have carried 2001 Philly to Finals and win a game at LA.

I think that's why Shaq thinks he's one of the top 5 ever.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ2jlhwpR0
Aside from whether team level achievements are a good measure of individuals (and how weak the East was at that time and how tight two of those series were).

That team was designed for Iverson. The 76ers tried to build with conventional 2nd/3rd options (such as Derrick Coleman, Jerry Stackhouse, Joe Smith, Tim Thomas, Larry Hughes, Toni Kukoc, Keith Van Horn, Chris Webber and other scorers like Corliss Williamson, Clarence Weatherspoon) and Iverson couldn't productively coexist with them (not that these were great players but they were more highly rated than the defensive minded guys in '01 like Snow and McKie). Not only did the team not succeed, their values went down whilst playing with AI (some of that was natural given age, but often it wasn't). Iverson needed to play with good defensive players who didn't want the ball on offense to get the best out of him. Only with Carmelo, later in his career did he show any signs of working well with another scorer.

Also Shaq isn't a serious (or good) basketball analyst.

I don't agree with the Paul, Wade picks but I can sort of semi see a case (ish) with certain criteria in so far as having great peaks (Paul has the best PER and WS/48 season by a point guard, Wade is one of 7 guys with a 30+ PER season) though even then I wouldn't pick them (certainly not Wade). But even at his peak (whenever you think that is) Iverson wasn't at that level because he was too inefficient (middling at best %s, high turnovers).

Yeah, I know that usual stuff. But that stuff will contradict lots of analysts here because they will say Iverson's best season is 2004-05 or 2007-08 or even 2005-06. In those seasons he was playing with Webber at Philly and Carmelo at Denver. That's why I don't wanna come with RAPM, WS or some ASPM values to support my top 5 pick. In fact I could choose a careful lambda for RAPM calculation and rely on some play-by-play data of a different source and then you would get that top5 pick.

For Paul and Wade argument, player box score data only explains 30-35% of the real thing according to my tests. So I don't really care abour PER. WS/48 is fundementally flawed imo. RAPM is good. But the PBP data, lambda calculation and priors if there are any are too important. That's why I can't rely on someone else's RAPM and I look for matchup data always.

If you go with that biased shot percentage route, I suggest you to consider usage, shot range and the help of taking contested shots by a superstar instead of other players. Check usage and assists to see if he turned the ball a lot or not.

@Bobbofitos

Yeah I get what you mean. But you should look at the bigger picture not only advanced statistics, simulations etc. If you really wanna go that route, consider schedule, GM decisions, referee decisions and media's effect on player performances, results of games and ultimately championships.

@jbrocato23

I think this is what you want. 2001 Finals, MVP, allstars and MVPs, NBA team awards, ROTY, rookie all-star mvp , simple box-score career stats, scoring titles, leading the league in steals, minutes etc.

However if you want my real reason why I think he is among top 5 ever, he's only one of the 2 people could carry a whole team into Finals by largely himself in NBA history.

Edit: I won't say other people's picks are wrong. These are only my opinions. Just like Shaquille O'Neal's. I just think nobody should be surprised someone voted for Iverson when there are votes for Paul and Wade. 10 votes for LeBron James is an entirely different thing.

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:05 am**

I'm pretty surprised that Russell isn't (at least closer to) unanimous. The guy won titles in 11 of his 13 seasons.

So he should rank ahead of Robert Horry.
Then again, Satch Sanders wasn't as good as Karl Malone, despite the titles.

Nobody here thinks either PER or WS/48 is the ultimate authority on who was 'better'. But sometimes one of them picks up what another may leave out.
Year by year playoff leaders for the Celtics in Russell's time there:

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1957      WS   WS/48   PER       1964      WS   WS/48   PER
Russell   1.4   .162   18.9      Sam Jones 2.1   .290   21.5
Ramsey    1.4   .290   19.2      Russell   1.9   .199   18.9
Sharman   1.3   .164   16.5      Heinsohn  0.9   .133   17.0
Heinsohn  1.2   .157   19.1
                                 1965      WS   WS/48   PER
1958*     WS   WS/48   PER       Russell   3.3   .286   20.9
Ramsey    1.7   .235   19.2      Sam Jones 2.0   .195   18.4
Cousy     1.5   .156   17.6      KC Jones  1.3   .156   11.6
Sharman   1.5   .175   17.3
Russell   1.2   .162   21.6      1966      WS   WS/48   PER
                                 Russell   3.2   .191   20.2
1959      WS   WS/48   PER       Sam Jones 2.2   .179   19.6
Ramsey    2.0   .322   23.4      Havlicek  1.5   .102   16.3
Russell   1.9   .184   18.8
Sharman   1.3   .194   17.5      1967*     WS   WS/48   PER
                                 Havlicek  1.2   .175   20.8
1960      WS   WS/48   PER       Sam Jones 1.2   .178   19.5
Russell   3.0   .249   22.1      Howell    0.7   .141   15.3
Heinsohn  1.7   .192   19.9      Russell   0.7   .090   15.3
Ramsey    1.6   .169   14.7
                                 1968      WS   WS/48   PER
1961      WS   WS/48   PER       Havlicek  2.8   .157   19.9
Russell   1.9   .201   22.0      Howell    2.2   .176   17.2
Sharman   1.4   .257   18.8      Nelson    1.9   .191   18.5
Cousy     1.2   .166   17.8      Russell   1.6   .091   16.7
Ramsey    1.2   .196   16.7
                                 1969      WS   WS/48   PER
1962      WS   WS/48   PER       Havlicek  2.8   .161   19.5
Russell   3.6   .257   22.8      Nelson    1.8   .250   21.6
Sam Jones 1.5   .143   16.6      Howell    1.6   .142   14.7
KC Jones  1.2   .173   13.7      Russell   1.4   .082   15.3
                                 Siegfried 0.9   .110   14.4
1963       WS   WS/48   PER
Russell   2.5   .197   20.5
Sam Jones 1.9   .206   19.6
Heinsohn  1.6   .182   20.5

* = did not win the title
I'm seeing 4 of 13 seasons in which Russell is the team leader in both PER and WS/48, all between '60 and '66; more seasons in which he is the leader in neither.
He sometimes leads in WS just by playing the most minutes.
[These last 2 postseasons, his WS/48 also trailed Satch Sanders, who didn't play a lot of minutes.]

Obviously these stats are supposing no one got more blocks or steals than anyone else, etc. -- that games were won by shooting better, rebounding, etc.
http://bkref.com/tiny/jfLom

Compared to other champions and contenders with a primary superstar, these same stats tend to corroborate their status, especially in playoffs.

Posted: **Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:46 am**

Shaq thinks [Iverson is] one of the top 5 ever.

Somebody ask Shaq if he or Iverson is more deserving of Top 5 All-time status.

I actually like Iverson. There were times he might have even been one of the top 5 players in the league. It was almost like a great experiment watching the Sixers build a team to complement him. As others have noted, he wasn't inclined to be part of any offensive ensemble.
And how quickly he was out of the league, even when he still had most of his skills. Below a pretty high threshold, like 85-90% of his Peak, it wasn't worthwhile to accommodate him.

We can still describe him as one of the Top 5 players 6 feet and under, with a good shot at #1 on that list.
http://bkref.com/tiny/7uuGv
Well, now there's also Chris Paul.
We voted him about #45 earlier -- viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8350&start=138

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