Rough early estimate of chances to win this season's tiltle

[Bobbofitos]

I think OKC have the highest probability. I'd say they're a 85% bet to come out of the West while Miami and Indiana are both 50/50. And I think OKC can beat both of those teams in the Finals. Also, what's the rationale behind having the Blazers with better title chances than the Clippers?

That's way off. Right now the Thunder are about 5 to 1 or thereabout to win it all; your estimate is at least twice as high on them making it out of the West.

[Crow]

"what's the rationale behind having the Blazers with better title chances than the Clippers?"

Mainly a better record against the top 10 and the best offense but the estimated chance is barely higher and not very high for either.

[talkingpractice]

Here's the current odds on Betfair converted to P(win), if anyone is interested.

MIA = 27%
IND = 24%
OKC = 19%
SAS = 8%
LAC = 7%
GSW = 4%
POR = 4%
HOU = 4%

no one else better than 75:1.

[Crow]

Thanks for the info.

I've largely just gone on my own with my estimates but the Bovada set reinforces my stance on Miami and San Antonio.

Basketball-reference and ESPN are I assume purely going by the numbers but I am surprised that these models have the Heat as low as they are (9% and 6% to win the title respectively).

I think I previously found that in recent times (30 years) the winner of last year's title won the next one about half the time and teams with a chance to 3-repeat did that about half the time but I don't recall the precise numbers.