APBRmetrics

willguo wrote:That's 28 bets on 21 games over a period where there were 60 games. That would mean ~600 bets or ~450 games over a full season. That's an astounding number - I've only seen crazies and ultra sharps do that, and most people who are doing 600 bets a year would have to be doing totals as well.

(Obviously extrapolating 60 game samples to a full season is not optimal.)

Someday, we all here at APBRmetrics will work together like those MIT Black Jack kids years ago, brainstorm together all the metric blends we can, and pool together to make the most appropriate bets & be rich before Vegas finds us out.

I suggest Men's & Women's college ball be included - there HAS to be trends found there if they can't be found very easily in the NBA. Many more outliers to find.

Will, get on this, you seem to have a passion for it. I'm sure it'd be easy to coordinate on the other side of the world from Vegas. No prob.

Crow wrote:First week of fake betting done. Rallied to get to a bit over 40% win. Had a plan to try to just bet the 6 teams I thought I knew a decent amount about (6 top teams for hoped for greater reliability), only when
they were home / away, favored / dog v opponent in such a way that the power rating difference and this season ats performance was favorable, lines fell into certain slots and preferably east vs west, but lines are pretty tight and I didn't find this conceived ideal too often. So I strayed a little or too much. It is tough and I am not finding it fun either, so far. But I'll see if my improvement lasts this coming week or fades.

Hey Crow I'm using Wagerminds to test some NBA wagers right now but I also bet the majorit of them too, haven't tried the site you posted. William's insight was great above - the moving of the lines and the "public" stuff is overstated. One popular theory is that Vegas sets line to get equal money on each side which is also false. I have used 4 factors stuff to create my own lines without a ton of success but I'm looking more into the bottom up process WGuo described above. Unfortuantely dealing with a stolen laptop right now so I'll have to update once I get a new one and get back to work on it but I'd definitely love to see more input on this topic on the board.

Sorry for you about the theft.

6-2 over last 3 days. 3OT with Spurs interfered with possible 8-0.

6-0 over last 2 days. 20-7 over last 10.

Rationalized some plays maybe I shouldn't have for an 0-4 day.

Learning some about betting. Not sure I've learned much new about the game itself though. Maybe something will come to me.

Maybe you're already doing this, but it's hard to learn too much without consciously examining your picks and why you made them. If you go through this whole exercise and come out even or behind, you'll want to know why and what you could do to improve. How can you know unless you have a good record of what you did? Even if you come out ahead, could you have skipped some bad bets, or were you lucky on good ones? Looking back with a good record of why you made your choices, maybe you'll discover that you overrate star big men, or underrate teams that move the ball well, or what have you. Just writing down your thought process as you go might be enough to bring up new ideas or questions to examine.

That is good advice. I have done a bit of evaluation but could do plenty more. An on-going log would indeed be smart. To date, almost all my analysis has been at team level, except for checking on injuries. If I got more serious, I should look at player level.

Looking at last 2 weeks, I am undefeated when betting Atl, Chi, Dal, Houston,NO,OKC. I am winless on a few. 3-7 on Clips. Probably need to be more careful with or avoid them. I don't claim to understand them. Guess they pushed my buttons though.

http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/601
early trends

28-15 over last 19 days. 13-4 over last 8. It is basically two very good weeks and one quite bad.

In 32 days it is 48-39, including the 4-12 start. Eh.

Crow wrote:28-15 over last 19 days. 13-4 over last 8. It is basically two very good weeks and one quite bad.

In 32 days it is 48-39, including the 4-12 start. Eh.

Good job Crow, especially after that tough start.

Thanks. Fake betting ATS and money line, I am aiming to keep above 65% win. I am for last 19 days but that slicing avoids a bad week. Overall it is basically 3 good weeks and 2 1/2 bad. Will see what month 2 brings.

Crow wrote:Thanks. Fake betting ATS and money line, I am aiming to keep above 65% win. I am for last 19 days but that slicing avoids a bad week. Overall it is basically 3 good weeks and 2 1/2 bad. Will see what month 2 brings.

If you start with $1000 and can hit at 65% at 600 games a year, paying -110 vig, and bet 5% of your capital a game, you'll have not quite enough to buy the Clippers with cash by the end of year 2. But don't worry, by the end of year 3 you'll have 2 trillion dollars!

The moneyline bets affect the win% some when it is on favorites. Moneyline and mostly favorites were about half my bets initially, though it is probably a third or less now as I got more used to ATS and have also not done up to expectation on moneyline recently.

I have made some fake money but not that much, in part because of the early hole I fell into. Obviously sustainable good return compounding for much longer than a month could change that dramatically. I have been increasing the size of bets to above 5%. One recently was over 10% (there were probably others earlier when the amounts were smaller) and I might do more of that even though it probably isn't prudent. Might need a lesson to temper fake bet ambition. Probably need to focus more on distinguishing between decent bet opportunities and really good ones and cut down on the former and really push the latter. Hope the fake run up continues. Haven't gotten the hubris to go live yet.

I am assuming when people talk above above 55% win being good, they are not betting moneyline favorites in the mix? Can't see 55% being good if it includes those likely to wins.