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Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Sun May 31, 2015 5:44 am
by Kathoro
According to an article on April 4th, 2014:
"According to exclusive Vantage Sports data Haberstroh's using, LeBron has kept his man in front of him on drives just 40 percent of the time—the league median is 50 percent. He's also been beaten back on defense 2.8 times per game, way ahead of the league average."
This accounts for two of the three defensive aspects I am complaining about. The other one is giving up cuts. I haven't spent the energy required to find a stat on that one.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Sun May 31, 2015 5:59 am
by Kathoro
I would also like to restate this chunk of text I wrote earlier in the topic.
You have to remember that offense and defense are linked together in basketball. Better offensive shooting percentage and less offensive turnovers per possession can lead to better defensive efficiency.
Let us separate offense and defense into four categories for the sake of argument:
1. Pure Offense
2. Pure Defense
3. Offensive-Defense
4. Defensive-Offense
Obviously, James is probably an incredibly good Offensive-Defender. His pure defense can be a different story. James posted an D-XRAPM of -0.8 last season despite having an O-XRAPM of +8.7. Damien Lillard posted the highest combined XRAPM last season with a D-XRAPM as low as -1.0, and he was SIX-FOOT-THREE, played POINT GUARD, and was FORTY-THIRD in combined XRAPM. I believe Ryan Anderson was the front-court player who posted the highest combined XRAPM last season with a D-XRAPM as low as -1.0, and he was NINETY-FIRST in combined XRAPM.
Considering the size, strength, speed, leaping ability, and offensive-defense of James, his pure defense is absolutely putrid. I should have been more specific in my criticism of his defense by criticizing his PURE defense, not his OVERALL defense.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:13 pm
by huevonkiller
Kathoro wrote:According to an article on April 4th, 2014:
"According to exclusive Vantage Sports data Haberstroh's using, LeBron has kept his man in front of him on drives just 40 percent of the time—the league median is 50 percent. He's also been beaten back on defense 2.8 times per game, way ahead of the league average."
I just posted his defense on all play types which still includes pure D, so it clearly wasn't a big enough factor.
I'm going to guess now that he doesn't have to play with Kevin Love giving up 75% DFG% within 6 feet of the rim in the playoffs, that LeBron is going to look a lot more decent. The Heat didn't help him here either.
This accounts for two of the three defensive aspects I am complaining about. The other one is giving up cuts. I haven't spent the energy required to find a stat on that one.
Well go ahead and point out aspects you want him to improve, he's already done that once he gets to the post-season anyway. Your argument also falls apart when you compare him to Prime Paul George, you're just overstating his deficiences.
Isolation .92 PPP
Pick and Roll Ball: .57 PPP
Pick and Roll Man: .88 PPP
Spot-Up: .87 PPP
Off Screens: .63 PPP
Hand Offs: .64 PPP
For comparison, 2013-14 Paul George was at 0.78 PPP, and he doesn't rebound (or last) like James. And James tries harder in the playoffs, as I already showed long ago.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:36 pm
by huevonkiller
Obviously, James is probably an incredibly good Offensive-Defender. His pure defense can be a different story. James posted an D-XRAPM of -0.8 last season despite having an O-XRAPM of +8.7. Damien Lillard posted the highest combined XRAPM last season with a D-XRAPM as low as -1.0, and he was SIX-FOOT-THREE, played POINT GUARD, and was FORTY-THIRD in combined XRAPM. I believe Ryan Anderson was the front-court player who posted the highest combined XRAPM last season with a D-XRAPM as low as -1.0, and he was NINETY-FIRST in combined XRAPM.
Synergy Sports 2013-14: Defensive PPP on par with Prime Durant and Prime Paul George. Includes "pure defense" and all aspects of defense.
Heat's 2013-2015 Regular Season Defense: From significantly above average to awful.
DSPM 2013-14: +0.6
On/off court 2014-15 Regular Season: 105.6 on court, 110.6 Points allowed off court.
D Real Plus Minus 2014-15: +2.39
D BPM 2015 Playoffs: +4.7
Your previous posts:
"Does anyone have any in depth statistical analysis to examine his defensive impact? My gut feeling is that his defensive effort is so pathetic that he is literally one of the worst defenders in the league."
"Every time his man doesn't have the ball, Lebron just stands in one place, watches the ball, and allows his man the opportunity to blow to the rim for a wide open catch and finish. "
"Every single time Lebron is pretending to guard a ball handler initiating the pick and roll, Lebron will jog in the direction of the roll man as an excuse not to fight through the pick, regardless of what the coaching scheme is."
You're a more unreliable narrator than that Clockwork Orange dude. I mean his pick n roll D was especially dominant, this is just one of many examples now. I could make a series of Skip Bayless autobiographies with this stuff.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2015 9:53 pm
by Kathoro
So if a ball handler blows past a defender, causes the defense to collapse, kicks the ball to a consequently wide open teammate, and that teammate scores, what does Synergy record that as?
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:03 am
by huevonkiller
Kathoro wrote:So if a ball handler blows past a defender,
Careful now, we know your memory on these kinds of plays is kind of fuzzy.
causes the defense to collapse, kicks the ball to a consequently wide open teammate, and that teammate scores, what does Synergy record that as?
I'll defer to SportVU on this, they say he let defenders get to the rim at an "average" rate in 2013-14. Synergy also said he gave up above league average production in Isolation, but Iso plays aren't efficient enough. So given that, plus Synergy ranking him in the 75th percentile, it doesn't seem to matter too much overall. He's not the God-like defender he was, but he shouldn't be during the regular season. Few players are efficient Iso players, and the ones that are can't seem to quite beat Matthew Dellavedova yet in their team's rotation.
My argument wasn't even about the regular season version of LeBron, but if he still isn't struggling during his terrible regular seasons, then your position is dubious isn't it?
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:21 am
by Kathoro
You say my memory is fuzzy, but I complained about his transition defense and his ability to stay in front of ball handlers. I will restate some data I cited earlier.
According to an article on April 4th, 2014:
"According to exclusive Vantage Sports data Haberstroh's using, LeBron has kept his man in front of him on drives just 40 percent of the time—the league median is 50 percent. He's also been beaten back on defense 2.8 times per game, way ahead of the league average."
The issue with James is that he loafs on defense to an incredible degree at times, forcing rotations that then might cause his teammates to get statistically blamed for scoring that results largely due to the laziness of James. If you actually pay attention to the games, you will see that you can hand an unborn fetus a basketball, tell it to dribble past James, and it could probably succeed at doing so a large percentage of the time.
A player who blows past James, collapses the defense, and assists to an open teammate could cause teammates of James to get blamed far more than they should. When James goes for steals that he can never realistically grab at the beginning of transition defense as an excuse to not run back to the other end, his teammates also suffer. When James watches the ball and completely loses track of his man, and that man receives a pass and James is so out of position that it makes more sense for one of the teammates of James to try to close out on the man with the ball, the teammates of James also suffer.
You are getting too caught up in statistics without actually being able to effectively evaluate the defense of James by watching the games. James can be tremendous on defense when he gives effort. He is, however, exceedingly lazy on defense, especially in the regular season. I will agree with you that the postseason is more important and that he has turned up his effort on the defensive end this postseason. He has done a tremendous job defensive rebounding. He is also obviously an incredible offensive-defender.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 1:27 am
by huevonkiller
Kathoro wrote:You say my memory is fuzzy, but I complained about his transition defense and his ability to stay in front of ball handlers.
You didn't stop there, this is obligatory:
"The Cavs could actually compete for a championship if Lebron considered the mere possibility of trying to spell at least two letters out of the phrase "defensive effort," but Lebron will never play another possession of defense "
Also, you specifically took the time to mention the "roll man" on pick and rolls, which LeBron defended .13 PPP better than league average. That's just not something that should happen..
You're talking about all these guys getting to the paint like they were 06 Dwyane Wade, they're not actually. I'll expand on this below.
I will restate some data I cited earlier.
According to an article on April 4th, 2014:
"According to exclusive Vantage Sports data Haberstroh's using, LeBron has kept his man in front of him on drives just 40 percent of the time—the league median is 50 percent. He's also been beaten back on defense 2.8 times per game, way ahead of the league average."
Keep in Front Rate and taking shots in the paint are two different things. He has a longer reach than Kevin Love, he can afford to get beat I think that's what you're not taking into account. He switches on guards that can't finish over him. He also played with terrible teammates, which is why the Heat are worse off now.
Synergy gave him only 0.08 PPP above league average in Isolation. His contested FG rate was still above average in the 2013-14 regular season as well. He defended post-ups well, he defended PnR well.
The issue with James is that he loafs on defense to an incredible degree at times, forcing rotations that then might cause his teammates to get statistically blamed for scoring that results largely due to the laziness of James. If you actually pay attention to the games, you will see that you can hand an unborn fetus a basketball, tell it to dribble past James, and it could probably succeed at doing so a large percentage of the time.
A player who blows past James, collapses the defense, and assists to an open teammate could cause teammates of James to get blamed far more than they should. When James goes for steals that he can never realistically grab at the beginning of transition defense as an excuse to not run back to the other end, his teammates also suffer. When James watches the ball and completely loses track of his man, and that man receives a pass and James is so out of position that it makes more sense for one of the teammates of James to try to close out on the man with the ball, the teammates of James also suffer.
Yet defenders don't seem to get to the rim against him according to SportVU and he only allowed 2.8 FGA there in 2013-14, probably because he knew where the Help D was, etc. Not everyone that blows past him can even finish in the paint. He intimidates players trying to lay it up at the rim, and can stop players like Rose and Teague when they get ahead of him.
You are getting too caught up in statistics without actually being able to effectively evaluate the defense of James by watching the games. James can be tremendous on defense when he gives effort. He is, however, exceedingly lazy on defense, especially in the regular season. I will agree with you that the postseason is more important and that he has turned up his effort on the defensive end this postseason. He has done a tremendous job defensive rebounding. He is also obviously an incredible offensive-defender.
Thank God he's lazy in the regular season, he shouldn't have it any other way at this point. He still doesn't struggle to the degree you stated earlier, and his teams absolutely struggle with him off the court over massize sample sizes.
I'll concur with you on your last statements as well.
Re: CLEVELAND, I will solve your problems
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:16 am
by Kathoro
I think we both made good points. Sometimes I use hyperbole to a drastic degree to draw attention to things. James is obviously not the worst defender in the history of basketball or even a bad defender overall. His pure defense over the last two seasons could probably be accurately described as 5 on a scale from 0 (13-14 Harden) to 10 (14-15 K. Leonard). His overall defense over the last two seasons could probably be described as 7 on a scale from 0 to 10. The sad thing is that he has the talent to easily perform at a 9/10 or 10/10 level. I will agree that the postseason matters more than the regular season and he has seemed to have increased his defensive rebounding effort substantially.
Now should be the time where James performs at a 10/10 level on the defensive side of the game. I didn't see anything close to that against the Spurs last season. I honestly believe that the Cavaliers would probably beat the Warriors if James gave maximum effort on defense. I don't want to hear the conservation argument either. There are only a maximum of seven games left in the season. He's probably not going to injure himself due to giving maximum effort on defense over seven games, and he should have the stamina to where giving maximum effort on defense shouldn't take away too much from his offense. In fact, a player like James giving maximum effort on defense might actually add to his offense considering how many times he would probably cause steals and deflections that would allow him to get easy baskets in transition.
There are two important things I want to close with in this message.
1. I don't believe James will give anything near maximum effort on defense against the Warriors, especially considering how he played against the Spurs last season in the finals.
2. The Warriors would be smart to use a game-plan that often put James in situations where he has to stay in front of a ball handler or defend against cuts.