APBRmetrics

Posted: **Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:02 pm**

Game 6 Single Game BPM:

Series Summary of Single Game BPM:

Game by game chart of player points contributed:

Posted: **Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:51 pm**

I thought this was a perceptive tweet from Nate Silver ✔@NateSilver538:

If Warriors had LeBron and Cavs had Iguodala, average game score would be roughly 147 to -6.

While value metrics are answering a slightly different question, I do think the obvious truth of Nate's counterfactual should call into question any metric that suggests Iguodala was as or more valuable than LeBron .

Posted: **Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:19 pm**

On the one hand, the stats don't perceive that Iggy helped slow LeBron quite a bit. Here, "slow" means keeping his shooting% well below his norm.

On the other hand, stats that show Iggy shooting very well, doing other things, and not turning it over -- that last one apparently gives him the WS edge over Curry -- fail to recognize that he had lots of open looks, and open lanes, due to his teammates. He's the 4th option out there, if not the 5th.

Statisticians will usually say, let him take those shots: He can't keep hitting .050 above his norm from the arc, nor .090 better from inside it.

To me, the better "what if" is how does the series play out if the Cavs had either Irving or Love. Two superstars has always been the tipping point, it seems.
What if they'd had all 3? A better series it would have been.

Switch LeBron and Iggy, and you have the greatest team of all times, no doubt. But MVP must come from the winning team.
What boggles my mind is that nobody voted for Curry. I read 7 for Ig, 4 for LeBron.
Who are these voters, anyway?

There must have been some collusion. Otherwise, we might have had LeBron 4, Iggy 3, Steph 3, Green 1.

xyz = 7th root of the product of these (not minutes)

Code: Select all

xyz     mvp?    Min    PER   e484   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM  vorp
2.22   LeBron   275   26.3   2.84   1.57   .90   .156   13.7  1.08
1.61   Curry    255   20.2   2.09   1.07   .83   .156    6.5   .54
1.42   Iguodala 223   18.0   1.53    .69   .92   .198    5.8   .43
1.37   Green    222   16.3   1.56    .70   .81   .176    6.3   .46

Posted: **Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:01 pm**

What boggles my mind is that nobody voted for Curry. I read 7 for Ig, 4 for LeBron. Who are these voters, anyway?
There must have been some collusion. Otherwise, we might have had LeBron 4, Iggy 3, Steph 3, Green 1.

Agreed. The probability that the seven non-LeBron voters would all independently settle on Iggy, with zero for Curry, seems vanishingly small.

The voters:

Andre Iguodala:
Sam Amick, USA Today
Ken Berger of CBSSports.com
Hubie Brown, ESPN Radio
Jason Lloyd, Akron Beacon Journal
Rusty Simmons, San Francisco Chronicle
Marc Spears, Yahoo Sports
Marc Stein, ESPN

LeBron James:
Steve Aschburner, NBA.com
Howard Beck, Bleacher Report
Zach Lowe, Grantland
Jeff Van Gundy, ABC

APBRmetrics

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