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Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:30 pm
by Mike G
Yahoo Sports' (3)
Ball Don't Lie bloggers have 3 different midseason picks for MIP:
Code: Select all
. improved tm mpg1 mpg2 PER1 PER2 WS1 WS2 BPM1 BPM2 eW1 eW2
Reggie Jackson Det 29.5 31.0 17.2 21.3 .104 .172 .8 4.1 1.39 1.82
Zaza Pachulia Dal 23.7 29.0 15.6 18.3 .116 .174 1.4 2.7 1.13 1.43
CJ McCollum Por 15.7 35.3 13.1 17.6 .089 .099 -.7 .5 .70 1.35
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:55 am
by Mike G
At 52% of the season, wins added by improvement over last year.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.87 C.J. McCollum Por .525 21.5 3.8 4.4 1.29 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
1.78 Draymond Green GSW .557 15.9 9.6 8.9 1.97 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
1.52 Ian Mahinmi Ind .598 13.9 10.4 2.1 1.35 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
1.49 Kent Bazemore Atl .585 17.5 5.3 3.2 1.14 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
1.44 Gary Harris Den .546 13.4 3.4 2.1 .47 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
1.37 Will Barton Den .546 18.6 7.5 2.8 1.32 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
1.29 Kawhi Leonard SAS .606 26.6 8.3 3.1 2.32 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
1.19 Allen Crabbe Por .569 15.2 3.6 1.6 .64 .522 8.9 3.6 2.0 .14
1.18 Brandon Rush GSW .584 11.9 5.8 2.0 .63 .252 2.7 4.9 1.6 -.38
1.15 Matt Dellavedova Cle .550 11.9 3.3 6.5 .78 .489 8.4 3.3 5.3 .25
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.15 Andre Drummond Det .486 19.5 17.2 .9 2.19 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
1.11 Thaddeus Young Brk .525 17.5 10.3 1.5 1.36 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
1.08 Otto Porter Was .537 14.1 6.3 2.4 .96 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
1.08 Nicolas Batum Cha .538 16.5 6.5 5.7 1.18 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
1.07 Reggie Jackson Det .524 24.1 4.7 7.8 1.79 .505 18.2 5.1 7.2 1.39
1.06 Andrew Wiggins Min .511 21.9 4.1 1.8 1.08 .506 16.3 4.7 1.9 .74
1.02 Jae Crowder Bos .572 17.3 5.6 2.2 1.16 .510 13.6 6.2 1.9 .81
1.02 Rajon Rondo Sac .490 11.5 6.4 12.2 1.44 Dal .444 10.4 6.5 9.9 1.08
1.00 Jerami Grant Phl .497 12.2 6.1 1.5 .71 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
.98 Marvin Williams Cha .554 12.5 7.9 1.8 .95 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.93 DeMar DeRozan Tor .531 24.7 4.7 4.4 1.66 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
.91 Tony Parker SAS .570 20.5 3.8 7.8 1.67 .533 20.0 2.5 6.6 1.26
.90 Aaron Gordon Orl .553 13.3 8.7 1.9 1.04 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
.89 Mario Chalmers Mem .564 17.9 3.9 5.3 1.16 Mia .511 13.1 3.3 4.6 .60
.85 Derrick Williams NYK .542 19.3 6.5 1.6 1.19 Sac .529 14.6 5.0 1.2 .59
.85 Kyle Lowry Tor .562 22.7 5.3 6.8 1.87 .519 19.5 5.1 7.2 1.60
Leader hasn't changed, but it's gotten closer; a lot more players are within 50% of the top.
Alan Crabbe (Por) has come from nowhere to #8 in just 2 weeks. Breakdown of his last 9 games, before that, and last year:
Code: Select all
Gms MPG TS% Reb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% ORtg DRtg
2015 13.4 .525 5.7 8.1 1.4 1.6 8.6 108 105
1-36 25.7 .565 5.4 7.5 1.4 0.4 8.5 108 111
37-45 27.2 .611 6.3 8.3 2.5 0.7 7.8 119 109
Totals:
Code: Select all
year TS% Usg% ORtg DRtg PER WS/48 BPM
2015 .525 11.5 108 105 8.7 .088 -0.3
2016 .574 17.9 112 110 13.2 .100 -1.0
Again, some stats don't agree much.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:56 pm
by rlee
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:06 pm
by Mike G
Stephen Curry is an unconventional Most Improved Player choice, but there's an argument to be made that he's the right one. The Golden State Warriors superstar is significantly better than last season, and that's the biggest reason why his team is 44-4.
The brief writeup does not attempt to substantiate this.
Several of his teammates are also significantly improved. Ignoring the minutes they've played, the top 5 in several summary stats' improvements (yr2-minus-yr1) from last season:
Code: Select all
PER+ WS/48+ BPM+ RPM+
10.9 Rush .171 Rush 5.9 Rush 6.06 Rush
4.3 Clark .124 JThompson 2.6 Ezeli 4.52 Ezeli
3.9 Green .051 Clark 2.5 Curry 2.19 Green
3.9 Curry .050 Curry 1.5 Green 1.99 JThompson
3.5 JThompson .049 Green 1.4 JThompson 1.53 Curry
Some of these guys don't play very many minutes, and some have done their improving largely in garbage time, perhaps.
Just multiplying these numbers by their minutes -- not attempting to make equivalent Wins or plus-minus -- the top 5's look like this:
Code: Select all
PER+ WS/48+ BPM+ RPM+
6878 Rush 108 Rush 3878 Curry 3824 Rush
6271 Green 79 Green 3723 Rush 3522 Green
6049 Curry 78 Curry 2412 Green 3209 Ezeli
1750 Clark 41 Iguodala 1846 Ezeli 2373 Curry
1540 Iguodala 37 Livingston 1668 Iguodala 1386 Iguodala
Again, no units are assigned to the numbers; they're just for the purpose of ranking players on this team.
It's certainly arguable that Curry isn't even MIP on his own team.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:58 pm
by rlee
It is an interesting concept that a player of Steph Curry's stature could be the "most improved". whatever that may mean. He is certainly a better player than he was in his MVP season. None of the NBA players, coaches, execs and reporters I've spoken with disputes this. I probably won't vote for him. I think it is somewhat silly to pretend that fringe players should be considered for this award, though. Draymond, on the other hand, has also added significantly to an already strong game.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:45 pm
by Mike G
For the record, Brandon Rush has not just played garbage minutes. He's started 23 of his 39 games, and his stats are enormously better when he has started.
Meanwhile, Steph Curry has improved every year of his career, in every known stat.
Code: Select all
year PER BPM WS/48 perW bpmW xyz xyz+
2010 16.3 1.0 .077 .114 .119 .104
2011 19.4 1.9 .128 .148 .137 .138 .034
2012 21.2 3.4 .144 .167 .166 .159 .022
2013 21.3 5.4 .180 .168 .205 .184 .025
2014 24.1 7.4 .225 .198 .244 .222 .038
2015 28.0 9.9 .288 .241 .293 .274 .051
2016 31.9 12.4 .338 .283 .341 .321 .047
I went ahead and created PER- and BPM-wins/48, from homemade conversions. They're averaged with WS/48 to get
xyz. And annual xyz improvement is the last column.
While improving to his current level may be more
astonishing, last year was arguably even a bigger
improvement over the previous season.
Also found one other MVP who
then significantly improved in all 3 metrics. He repeated at MVP, didn't win MIP.
Code: Select all
Bird PER BPM WS/48 perW bpmW xyz xyz+
1984 24.2 7.8 .215 .199 .252 .222
1985 26.5 8.5 .238 .224 .265 .243 .020
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:39 am
by Mike G
At 69% of the season, McCollum is pulling away.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.51 C.J. McCollum Por .536 22.6 3.7 4.5 1.33 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
2.11 Gary Harris Den .545 12.9 3.3 2.1 .48 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
1.94 Marvin Williams Cha .565 14.0 8.2 1.8 1.15 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
1.92 Draymond Green GSW .571 15.5 9.9 8.9 1.88 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
1.91 Ian Mahinmi Ind .595 13.9 10.1 2.1 1.36 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
1.90 Will Barton Den .545 19.1 7.5 2.9 1.35 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
1.80 Aaron Gordon Orl .521 12.7 9.9 2.2 1.21 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
1.61 Kent Bazemore Atl .549 16.1 6.0 2.9 .99 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
1.55 Allen Crabbe Por .567 15.2 3.6 1.6 .66 .522 8.9 3.6 2.0 .14
1.49 Otto Porter Was .547 13.9 6.0 2.0 .96 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.45 Brandon Rush GSW .562 10.7 5.7 2.3 .60 .252 2.7 4.9 1.6 -.38
1.44 Jae Crowder Bos .569 16.9 5.5 2.2 1.18 .510 13.6 6.2 1.9 .81
1.39 Jerami Grant Phl .511 12.2 6.2 1.9 .74 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
1.34 Kawhi Leonard SAS .612 26.5 7.8 2.9 2.24 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
1.32 Andre Drummond Det .485 18.7 16.3 .9 2.13 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
1.28 Thaddeus Young Brk .521 16.5 10.2 1.7 1.31 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
1.21 DeMar DeRozan Tor .533 25.5 4.6 4.5 1.66 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
1.19 Mario Chalmers Mem .559 17.6 4.2 5.6 1.17 Mia .511 13.1 3.3 4.6 .60
1.19 Andrew Wiggins Min .516 21.5 3.9 1.9 1.04 .506 16.3 4.7 1.9 .74
1.16 Nicolas Batum Cha .534 16.0 6.6 5.9 1.12 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
Bottom of "improved" list:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.67 Derrick Rose Chi .469 18.8 3.8 5.2 .94 .487 22.3 3.8 6.3 1.46
-1.69 Gerald Green Mia .487 14.4 3.7 1.3 .51 Phx .527 21.7 4.4 2.1 1.15
-1.71 Roy Hibbert LAL .499 9.1 7.2 1.8 .60 Ind .494 15.7 10.1 1.6 1.20
-1.72 Kyle Korver Atl .565 11.9 3.8 2.6 .46 .691 16.8 4.6 3.0 .95
-1.72 Anthony Davis NOP .554 24.6 10.4 1.8 2.11 .579 27.3 10.7 2.1 2.58
-1.72 Marc Gasol Mem .519 18.6 7.6 4.0 1.43 .547 21.8 8.8 4.2 1.89
-1.89 Wesley Matthews Dal .519 13.9 3.1 2.1 .55 Por .580 19.1 3.9 2.5 1.07
-2.22 James Harden Hou .579 27.7 6.1 6.7 1.98 .589 30.1 5.6 7.0 2.49
-2.48 Ty Lawson Hou .474 8.7 2.6 5.7 .24 Den .516 15.5 3.1 9.2 1.28
-3.68 George Hill Ind .542 13.8 4.1 3.6 .78 .570 22.4 5.1 6.3 1.82
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:31 pm
by Mike G
Season at 76%
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.69 C.J. McCollum Por .536 21.9 3.6 4.5 1.30 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
2.38 Gary Harris Den .552 13.2 3.3 2.0 .47 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
2.26 Marvin Williams Cha .568 14.1 8.4 1.8 1.18 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
2.21 Aaron Gordon Orl .538 13.2 9.9 2.2 1.27 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
2.10 Draymond Green GSW .561 14.6 10.0 8.8 1.87 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
2.08 Ian Mahinmi Ind .581 13.2 10.1 2.2 1.31 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
2.01 Kawhi Leonard SAS .612 27.0 7.9 3.0 2.37 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
1.90 Will Barton Den .532 18.3 7.5 2.9 1.29 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
1.89 Kent Bazemore Atl .554 16.3 6.2 2.9 1.02 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
1.62 Jae Crowder Bos .567 16.9 5.6 2.2 1.19 .510 13.6 6.2 1.9 .81
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.59 Andre Drummond Det .485 18.4 16.6 1.0 2.16 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
1.51 DeMar DeRozan Tor .536 25.1 4.6 4.4 1.70 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
1.48 Brandon Rush GSW .553 10.0 5.8 2.2 .54 .252 2.7 4.9 1.6 -.38
1.48 Allen Crabbe Por .559 14.2 3.5 1.7 .58 .522 8.9 3.6 2.0 .14
1.47 Otto Porter Was .544 13.6 6.2 2.0 .91 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
1.44 Jerami Grant Phl .505 11.5 6.2 1.9 .69 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
1.43 Mario Chalmers Mem .559 17.4 4.0 5.6 1.19 Mia .511 13.1 3.3 4.6 .60
1.42 Thaddeus Young Brk .523 16.2 10.1 1.8 1.31 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
1.39 Kemba Walker Cha .540 22.2 4.4 5.5 1.66 .479 19.1 3.8 5.0 1.35
1.38 Kyle Lowry Tor .583 23.1 5.1 6.8 1.90 .519 19.5 5.1 7.2 1.60
That's everyone with 50% of the top improver's gains.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:44 pm
by Mike G
Here's an update on what other stats say about my top 20+. Curry is thrown in, too.
Last year's rates on the left; this year's minutes and numbers on the right.
Code: Select all
xyz improved? tm PER WS/48 BPM RPM min PER WS/48 BPM RPM
3.71 G Harris Den 4.9 -.046 -4.3 -7.0 1864 12.0 .070 .1 -1.5
3.18 Lowry Tor 19.3 .141 3.6 3.8 2264 23.7 .218 7.7 7.4
2.57 K Walker Cha 17.6 .101 2.2 -1.0 2200 21.3 .168 4.3 3.0
2.38 A Gordon Orl 11.4 .060 -2.8 -2.5 1431 17.2 .150 2.0 1.5
2.23 Crowder Bos 13.9 .113 .6 -.4 2060 16.2 .161 3.1 4.1
2.18 DeRozan Tor 17.4 .090 -1.6 -.2 2236 21.5 .166 1.0 .7
2.18 Mahinmi Ind 10.8 .090 -1.2 -.7 1375 16.7 .167 2.8 3.8
1.97 Leonard SAS 22.0 .204 6.1 7.6 1932 25.8 .282 8.1 9.6
1.92 Rush GSW 0.8 -.056 -6.0 -7.5 801 10.8 .103 -.9 -2.4
1.70 Curry GSW 28.0 .288 9.9 9.3 2006 32.4 .330 12.9 10.1
xyz improved? tm PER WS/48 BPM RPM min PER WS/48 BPM RPM
1.70 M Williams Cha 11.8 .102 1.0 .4 1809 16.0 .152 2.5 3.4
1.42 Chalmers Mem 11.7 .056 -1.0 -1.2 1231 18.1 .145 1.9 -.8
1.41 Bazemore Atl 9.7 .057 -1.8 -3.4 1675 13.5 .093 .0 -.7
1.20 Dellavedova Cle 8.5 .067 -2.6 -.6 1453 12.2 .113 -.6 1.2
1.15 J Grant Phl 8.7 .019 -3.3 -1.3 1617 12.8 .060 -.8 -1.1
1.09 McCollum Por 13.1 .089 -.7 1.3 2207 17.7 .106 .4 1.7
1.02 Barton Den 13.6 .063 -.6 -1.3 1840 17.0 .100 .4 -.6
.98 Dra Green GSW 16.4 .163 5.0 6.8 2101 18.7 .181 5.4 8.9
.69 Porter Was 11.6 .092 -.4 1.2 1682 14.3 .104 1.4 1.4
.55 Crabbe Por 8.7 .088 -.3 -3.3 1670 12.3 .098 -.7 -2.1
xyz improved? tm PER WS/48 BPM RPM min PER WS/48 BPM RPM
.55 Drummond Det 21.4 .147 -.2 .7 2107 21.8 .141 .0 3.2
.39 T Young Brk 15.7 .061 -.1 1.2 2087 17.3 .082 .2 .8
-.13 Batum Cha 13.1 .105 3.1 .4 1876 14.6 .079 1.7 1.6
Improvements in PER, BPM, and RPM are scaled to WS/48; the 4 are averaged, then multiplied by minutes/48.
McCollum doesn't much impress WS, BPM, or RPM.
Gary Harris has gotten huge minutes of late, now leads the team.
Re: Improved players 2015-16
Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:03 pm
by Mike G
Season at 91%
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
3.19 Gary Harris Den .557 13.6 3.4 2.1 .53 .391 7.7 3.0 1.3 -.16
2.93 Marvin Williams Cha .575 14.9 8.2 1.8 1.24 .536 11.0 6.8 1.6 .57
2.84 Aaron Gordon Orl .540 13.5 9.7 2.2 1.28 .509 10.7 7.5 1.3 .48
2.63 C.J. McCollum Por .535 21.5 3.4 4.5 1.20 .528 16.1 3.1 2.3 .70
2.51 Ian Mahinmi Ind .590 13.7 9.7 2.1 1.30 .504 8.5 10.9 1.0 .56
2.40 Draymond Green GSW .575 14.6 9.8 8.8 1.83 .532 14.1 9.1 4.5 1.37
2.15 Will Barton Den .542 18.1 7.6 2.9 1.26 .496 14.0 5.6 2.8 .78
2.04 Nicolas Batum Cha .544 16.2 6.4 6.3 1.21 Por .512 10.7 6.2 5.3 .78
1.97 Otto Porter Was .556 13.8 6.2 1.9 .93 .517 11.6 5.5 1.5 .47
1.97 Bismack Biyombo Tor .579 9.3 13.3 .6 1.32 Cha .556 9.5 11.5 .4 .75
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 '15: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.95 Kent Bazemore Atl .543 15.6 6.0 2.9 .95 .512 10.9 5.9 2.1 .47
1.95 Kawhi Leonard SAS .613 26.9 7.9 2.9 2.28 .557 21.2 8.4 3.0 1.85
1.86 Andre Drummond Det .499 18.4 16.7 .9 2.16 .494 16.6 15.8 .8 1.80
1.84 Brandon Rush GSW .553 9.9 5.6 2.2 .52 .252 2.7 4.9 1.6 -.38
1.81 DeAndre Jordan LAC .613 14.6 14.1 1.3 1.95 .615 13.6 15.9 .8 1.60
1.76 Thaddeus Young Brk .530 16.1 10.2 1.9 1.33 .501 15.6 6.2 2.4 .98
1.71 Allen Crabbe Por .565 14.0 3.6 1.7 .57 .522 8.9 3.6 2.0 .14
1.69 Tristan Thompson Cle .602 11.1 12.2 1.0 1.29 .566 12.3 11.1 .7 .89
1.61 Jerami Grant Phl .494 11.6 6.0 2.0 .68 .458 10.1 4.9 1.7 .26
1.54 DeMar DeRozan Tor .542 25.1 4.7 4.4 1.65 .499 21.2 5.0 3.7 1.37
1.50 Jae Crowder Bos .567 16.7 5.5 2.2 1.16 .510 13.6 6.2 1.9 .81
19 of 20 have improved their shooting%. 18 have higher scoring rate. 15 have boosted rebounding. 17 with better Ast.
11 have improved in all.