Page 3 of 4
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Tue May 30, 2017 12:01 am
by Mike G
Playoff leaders thru the conference finals. Ranked by xyzWins, the average of Win Shares and 'wins' suggested by PER, BPM, and fauxRPM (another of my contrivances).
Code: Select all
xyzW Player tm Min WS/48 PER BPM fRPM
3.00 LeBron James CLE 532 .299 30.4 11.0 9.5
2.46 Kawhi Leonard SAS 429 .316 31.7 11.3 8.4
2.19 Stephen Curry GSW 412 .287 27.9 11.3 7.8
2.08 Draymond Green GSW 416 .264 21.3 11.0 10.1
1.97 Al Horford BOS 610 .165 20.2 4.6 2.9
1.62 John Wall WAS 507 .138 23.1 4.2 2.6
1.54 James Harden HOU 407 .159 23.2 7.9 4.4
1.49 Kevin Durant GSW 334 .256 25.1 7.1 5.8
1.49 Kyrie Irving CLE 452 .193 22.6 1.9 2.8
1.42 Kevin Love CLE 417 .198 19.7 3.5 4.0
xyzW Player tm Min WS/48 PER BPM fRPM
1.31 Otto Porter WAS 428 .165 16.6 3.1 4.7
1.31 Chris Paul LAC 260 .248 28.0 12.2 6.2
1.29 Tristan Thompson CLE 429 .188 15.4 3.8 2.9
1.29 Jae Crowder BOS 596 .108 14.6 .7 1.4
1.25 Gordon Hayward UTA 411 .143 20.8 4.1 2.1
1.24 Bradley Beal WAS 505 .113 18.1 1.1 1.8
1.03 Isaiah Thomas BOS 521 .078 18.2 -.3 -.2
1.03 Clint Capela HOU 286 .199 21.2 4.2 4.6
.95 Mike Conley MEM 224 .205 27.6 8.5 3.6
.91 Russell Westbrook OKC 194 .107 27.9 13.1 9.6
Westbrook has .43 WS and 1.18 bpm-wins
fRPM has best correlation with the average; PER has the weakest.
All 4 are scaled to 75 total wins.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Tue May 30, 2017 11:32 pm
by Crow
Only 3 lineups have been used 100 plus minutes in playoffs. Wiz' starters best, then Cavs starters. Both outstanding at near 20 minutes per game. Good job, coaches. Houston's starters sucked at around a 100 minutes but at least they tried.
10 teams had a lineup over 50 minutes total, some multiples. Everybody could / probably have gotten there but 6 coaches didn't. The 4 conference finalists all did, everybody but Cavs at least twice. Celtics lead with two over 50 that were negative. GSW and Spurs had negative ones as well. GSW with the best over 50. Not the death lineup, the starters. Houston's great (2nd best overall) lineup was starters with Lou Williams over Harden. Huh.
Last season Cavs had 3 of the 4 best over 50 minutes and GSW peaked at 9th place.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:07 am
by Crow
The teams whose coach didn't play any lineup over 50 minutes are Utah, Chi, LAC, IND, Toronto and Portland. 4 lost in first round, mostly badly and 2 lost in second round. Low lineup concentration, low hope.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:12 pm
by Mike G
The 106 FGA put up by the Dubs last night are the most in a non-overtime playoff game since 1988; around which time this sort of behavior abruptly stopped.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ZdvSi
In a game against the Nuggets in 1985, the Lakers attempted 10 more and missed 22 fewer, winning 153-109.
Of 9 teams to try 100 FGA in this century, just 3 have won the game.
Dubs only team ever to shoot 100 times with at least 30 being threes, and win, PS/non-OT
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:43 pm
by Crow
Mike, where did J Butler and P George rank on your recent shown above combined metric list? We know it wasn't top 20.
Hayward 15th, right behind Crowder. Replace Crowder on court or play much with him? Anybody notice / get concerned about his horrendous playoff on the on court and on / off raw plus minus 2 years running? Or is the narrative set that he is the "perfect" acquisition for Celtics? Or is Quinn Snyder at fault instead of or also? Box score metrics had him at horrendous overall in 2016 playoffs, modestly above average this time but way below regular season level. $30 mil. / yr? I'd think long & hard about that. And probably say no. If he did get $30 mil., he'd be fighting Brook Lopez for third place for worst next season salary to trailing RPM ratio among RPM's top 60 players at about 10mil / point. Second, Whiteside. Who is worst? Al Horford by a very substantial difference (close to 15 -1). The only way this is tolerable is with the super values for Thomas & Crowder. When that changes, boy will it change. Retain anybody else? Hello huge, sustained tax payments.
Wall and Beal are near the bottom of that group too.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:07 pm
by Mike G
Butler is #37, George 49.
The Pacers of course only played 4 games, and 86 guys have more minutes than PG.
Not counting the Finals underway, top 20 in
per-game xyzWins:
Code: Select all
W/G Player tm G WS/48 PER BPM fRPM
.231 LeBron James CLE 13 .299 30.4 11.0 9.5
.205 Kawhi Leonard SAS 12 .316 31.7 11.3 8.4
.187 Chris Paul LAC 7 .248 28.0 12.2 6.2
.182 Stephen Curry GSW 12 .287 27.9 11.3 7.8
.182 R Westbrook OKC 5 .107 27.9 13.1 9.6
.173 Draymond Green GSW 12 .264 21.3 11.0 10.1
.159 Mike Conley MEM 6 .205 27.6 8.5 3.6
.149 Kevin Durant GSW 10 .256 25.1 7.1 5.8
.145 Giannis A MIL 6 .139 22.0 5.7 6.0
.140 James Harden HOU 11 .159 23.2 7.9 4.4
W/G Player tm G WS/48 PER BPM fRPM
.136 Paul George IND 4 .132 21.1 4.3 3.6
.130 D Schroder ATL 6 .227 22.7 5.4 2.2
.130 Paul Millsap ATL 6 .163 21.4 5.5 5.0
.125 John Wall WAS 13 .138 23.1 4.2 2.6
.114 Kyrie Irving CLE 13 .193 22.6 1.9 2.8
.114 Gordon Hayward UTA 11 .143 20.8 4.1 2.1
.110 Al Horford BOS 18 .165 20.2 4.6 2.9
.109 Kevin Love CLE 13 .198 19.7 3.5 4.0
.108 Jimmy Butler CHI 6 .116 19.5 1.6 3.0
.101 Otto Porter WAS 13 .165 16.6 3.1 4.7
.100 T Thompson CLE 13 .188 15.4 3.8 2.9
ok 21
Players with least universal agreement among these stats, ranked by total difference from their average.
Code: Select all
var Player tm WS perW bpmW frW
1.21 Draymond Green GSW 2.29 1.47 2.24 2.32
1.19 Avery Bradley BOS .22 .92 .63 1.11
1.16 Kyrie Irving CLE 1.82 1.74 1.07 1.32
1.00 Joe Ingles UTA .44 .34 .96 .82
.95 Russell Westbrook OKC .43 .98 1.18 1.04
.89 Isaiah Thomas BOS .85 1.48 .86 .96
.88 Kawhi Leonard SAS 2.82 2.54 2.35 2.13
.86 Danny Green SAS .45 .38 1.03 .67
.83 J.R. Smith CLE .73 .25 .92 .76
.82 Zach Randolph MEM -.19 .25 -.19 .18
.82 Marcus Smart BOS .50 .74 1.10 .97
.81 DeMar DeRozan TOR .48 .93 .51 .87
Win Shares likes Kawhi and Kyrie; dislikes Bradley, Westbrook, Isaiah, Smart, DeRozan
PER likes Zach, DeRozan, and especially Isaiah; disses Danny Green, Ingles, J.R., and esp. Draymond.
BPM boosts Ingles, Westbrook, Smart, J.R. and esp. Danny; quite unimpressed by Kyrie.
fauxRPM likes Draymond and Avery Bradley a lot more; loves Kawhi less than the rest.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:26 pm
by Mike G
After 2 games of the Finals, GS winning by 20.5 ppg, extracted stats look like this:
Code: Select all
. Warriors min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Kevin Durant 79 35.1 .414 17.6 .68 .39
Klay Thompson 74 7.8 .088 .6 .14 .05
Stephen Curry 71 28.7 .322 15.4 .48 .31
Draymond Green 60 8.6 .074 2.3 .09 .06
Andre Iguodala 53 11.7 .167 5.3 .18 .10
S Livingston 34 9.7 .119 -2.2 .08 .00
Ian Clark 31 10.8 .117 -.1 .08 .02
Zaza Pachulia 28 13.6 .174 3.1 .10 .04
David West 19 7.7 .101 -1.2 .04 .00
Patrick McCaw 11 -1.4 -.003 -8.6 .00 -.02
. totals 480 17.1 .202 6.2 2.03 .99
. Cavs min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
LeBron James 80 26.6 .131 13.3 .22 .31
Kyrie Irving 75 10.0 -.130 -4.4 -.20 -.05
Kevin Love 64 24.2 .138 -.3 .18 .03
Tr Thompson 44 7.9 -.070 -3.7 -.06 -.02
Kyle Korver 43 6.6 .015 -2.4 .01 .00
J.R. Smith 42 -7.4 -.225 -11.7 -.20 -.10
Iman Shumpert 38 8.8 -.002 -5.4 .00 -.03
Deron Williams 33 -9.2 -.298 -11.9 -.20 -.08
R Jefferson 28 12.4 .085 -3.7 .05 -.01
Channing Frye 11 -4.5 -.281 -18.7 -.06 -.05
. totals 480 11.6 -.018 -2.2 -.18 -.02
In another thread, see eWins. In putting up today's numbers, I wondered if JR Smith could really be so bad as to produce minus-.10 eWins. In fact, his WinShares are
.20 less than they were after the ECF.
So it goes, down the line. LeBron has .31 vorp, and the rest of his team totals
-.33; he and Love total .40 WS, everyone else pitches in
-.58
The combined (both teams) PER is 14.3, so everyone is undervalued in that column. Total BPM (corrected for strength of opponent) is +2.0 -- and still, only LeBron measures up as above-avg for Cle.
If JR and DWill don't improve, they have the 2 worst cumulative GameScores in Finals history.
http://bkref.com/tiny/RBb8o
Last year, a few Cavs were almost this bad, and Lue stopped playing them.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:21 pm
by Mike G
Near monotonic increase of Finals proficiency for LeBron James, according to GameScore.
Code: Select all
. yr G Min Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO GmSc
2007 4 42.5 22.0 7.0 6.8 1.0 .5 5.8 10.6
2011 6 43.7 17.8 7.2 6.8 1.7 .5 4.0 13.7
2012 5 44.0 28.6 10.2 7.4 1.6 .4 3.8 23.6
2013 7 43.0 25.3 10.9 7.0 2.3 .9 2.6 22.5
2014 5 37.8 28.2 7.8 4.0 2.0 .4 3.8 22.5
2015 6 45.7 35.8 13.3 8.8 1.3 .5 3.5 24.6
2016 7 41.7 29.7 11.3 8.9 2.6 2.3 4.4 26.5
2017 * 2 39.5 28.5 13.0 11.0 1.5 1.5 6.0 26.0
These are per-game averages.
Last night's G2 exertion was his 3rd best Finals GmSc in 42 games, after G 5 and 6 last year.
http://bkref.com/tiny/YsQnR
Best Finals GmSc since 1984:
Code: Select all
per G: yr Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO GmSc
Shaq 2000 38.0 16.7 2.3 1.0 2.7 2.2 30.6
Shaq 2002 36.3 12.3 3.8 .5 2.8 3.5 30.1
Jordan 1993 41.0 8.5 6.3 1.7 .7 2.7 29.6
Jordan 1991 31.2 6.6 11.4 2.8 1.4 3.6 29.4
Magic 1987 26.2 8.0 13.0 2.3 .3 2.2 28.3
Shaq 2001 33.0 15.8 4.8 .4 3.4 4.0 27.4
LeBron 2016 29.7 11.3 8.9 2.6 2.3 4.4 26.5
Jordan 1992 35.8 4.8 6.5 1.7 .3 4.0 25.8
Wade 2006 34.7 7.8 3.8 2.7 1.0 3.7 25.4
LeBron 2015 35.8 13.3 8.8 1.3 .5 3.5 24.6
Hakeem 1995 32.8 11.5 5.5 2.0 2.0 2.8 24.5
Magic 1988 21.1 5.7 13.0 2.0 .1 2.7 24.4
Duncan 2003 24.2 17.0 5.3 1.0 5.3 3.8 24.1
Bird 1986 24.0 9.7 9.5 2.7 .3 2.7 23.9
Bird 1984 27.4 14.0 3.6 2.1 1.1 3.6 23.7
Durant'17 ranks #1 (33.7) if we go with his 1st 2 games. Curry and LeBron would be #9-10.
http://bkref.com/tiny/S7UlH
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:31 pm
by Mike G
Game Score crudely captures player
contributions; and b-r.com makes them available by game or playoff series.
After 3 games of these Finals:
Code: Select all
GmSc Warriors 1 2 3
30.8 Kevin Durant 33.7 33.6 25.1
26.0 Stephen Curry 26.0 26.2 25.8
13.3 Klay Thompson .6 16.8 22.4
8.3 Andre Iguodala 8.1 6.4 10.5
7.2 Draymond Green 5.6 9.6 6.3
3.7 Shaun Livingston 1.9 6.9 2.3
3.3 David West -.2 4.0 6.0
3.1 JaVale McGee 6.1 1.9 1.2
2.9 Ian Clark 2.9 6.6 -.8
0.7 Zaza Pachulia 8.8 .0 -6.7
0.6 Patrick McCaw .2 .3 1.3
GmSc Cavs 1 2 3
28.1 LeBron James 19.1 32.8 32.4
15.6 Kevin Love 16.0 19.2 11.7
15.3 Kyrie Irving 11.6 9.8 24.4
3.5 Tristan Thompson -.1 8.6 2.0
3.5 Kyle Korver -.2 7.7 3.0
3.0 Iman Shumpert 2.7 6.4 -.2
2.3 Richard Jefferson 3.2 5.0 -1.3
1.8 J.R. Smith -1.8 -3.0 10.3
-2.0 Deron Williams -4.4 .1 -1.8
Astonishing consistency by Steph.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2t5DD
While I have thought 'strength in numbers' was a pretty lame slogan, it does seem that the Dubs can find 3 to 5 more productive players than the Cavs have, every night. In a series that's heavily reliant on star players, that seems to have made the difference in 2nd halves of games.
Code: Select all
avg 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
GSW 38 27 30 26
Cle 32 27 26 21
diff 6.0 -.3 4.3 5.3
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:27 am
by Mike G
Finals MVP vote may well be tonight. LeBron holds a slim lead in series VORP, but that's all; and last 2 trips he almost doubled anyone else in that stat. Review of this 3-years war:
Code: Select all
xyz 2015 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 WS vorp eWin
1.41 LeBron Cle 275 26.3 .156 13.7 2.84 .90 1.08 1.57
.93 Curry GS 255 20.2 .156 6.5 2.09 .83 .54 1.07
.77 Iguodala GS 223 18.0 .198 5.8 1.53 .92 .43 .69
.75 Green GS 222 16.3 .176 6.3 1.56 .81 .46 .70
.47 Mozgov Cle 169 21.5 .167 2.3 1.58 .59 .18 .54
.39 K. Thompson GS 227 12.2 .106 1.3 .80 .50 .19 .37
.38 T. Thompson Cle 247 14.4 .122 -.3 .69 .63 .10 .34
xyz 2016 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e484 WS vorp eWin
1.90 LeBron Cle 292 31.6 .249 15.1 2.97 1.51 1.25 1.81
1.05 Green GS 240 20.7 .208 8.7 1.76 1.04 .64 .88
.98 Irving Cle 273 24.0 .177 4.8 1.85 1.01 .46 1.05
.59 T. Thompson Cle 226 17.9 .185 1.9 1.04 .87 .22 .49
.58 Curry GS 246 16.8 .074 3.3 1.49 .38 .32 .76
.54 Iguodala GS 239 14.0 .111 4.0 .76 .55 .36 .38
.44 K. Thompson GS 247 15.4 .077 1.3 .99 .40 .21 .51
xyz 2017 tm min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eWin
.84 Durant GS 120 31.6 .352 13.9 3.12 .88 .48 .78
.74 Curry GS 110 28.0 .321 14.1 2.98 .74 .44 .68
.64 LeBron Cle 125 28.3 .173 13.6 2.32 .45 .49 .60
.26 K. Thompson GS 114 13.1 .151 2.2 .84 .36 .12 .20
.23 Iguodala GS 82 12.7 .162 6.2 .62 .28 .17 .11
.22 Love Cle 101 20.2 .111 .9 1.45 .23 .07 .31
.11 Green GS 93 7.6 .040 .1 .82 .08 .05 .16
.04 Irving Cle 119 14.9 -.028 -2.4 .89 -.07 -.01 .22
-.03 T. Thompson Cle 67 6.5 -.064 -1.4 -.12 -.09 .01 -.02
is the avg of WS, eWins, and a scaled-up vorp.
The Big 3 here all rank in the top 10 best Finals
ever by Game Score.
. . .
In 2015 Finals, Cavs were outscored by 25 in LeBron's 275 minutes on-court, or
-4.4 per 48.
In 23.5 min without him, they were -18, which is
-37 per 48.
Last year, +26 in 292 min. vs -22 in 44 LeBron-less min. Per48, that's
+4.3 vs -24
This go-round, they're -26 in his 125 min, or
-10.0 per 48. In his 19 resting minutes, they're -20, which is
-51 per 48.
Given that games 1 and 2 each had 3-4 minutes of garbage time at the end (with little point-differential), his rest during
competitive minutes have seen the Cavs go about
-80 pts/48.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:49 pm
by Mike G
Best Team Offensive Ratings in a Finals game, since 1984:
Code: Select all
ORtg tm - opp date TS% eFG% ORb% TO%
142.6 Cle - GSW 6-09-17 .681 .667 .314 .099
138.8 Bos - LAL 6-17-08 .634 .569 .341 .063
135.3 LAL - Bos 6-04-87 .671 .648 .200 .087
133.7 Bos - LAL 5-27-85 .655 .642 .325 .103
131.0 SAS - Mia 6-10-14 .711 .664 .192 .133
130.3 SAS - Mia 6-11-13 .586 .580 .413 .111
129.6 Dal - Mia 6-09-11 .692 .659 .129 .120
129.2 Ind - LAL 6-16-00 .716 .647 .222 .143
128.6 Chi - Por 6-03-92 .606 .588 .372 .098
128.4 LAL - Bos 6-02-85 .608 .563 .361 .097
The Warriors' best is game 4 last year, 128.2
The top 31 ORtg have all won their game.
http://bkref.com/tiny/pdRrs
One team has had a better eFG% in a Finals game: SAS vs Mia 2014 G1 -- .684, but with 5 OReb and 22 TO, ORtg = 119.5
In the last 50 Finals games (100 team-games, since 2009), Cavs' G4 ORb% and TO% both are within the top 20.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:04 am
by Nathan
The Warriors have been 28 points per 100 possessions better with Iguodala on the court this series. No other Warrior is even in the same galaxy; next best is Klay Thompson with the Warriors 12 points per 100 better with him on the court.
As crazy as it sounds, the 2015 finals MVP may again be the key to the series. The Warriors may need more from him in game 5 than the 21 minutes he played in game 4.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:54 am
by Mike G
Cavs w/wo LeBron thru 3 games:
they're -26 in his 125 min, or -10.0 per 48. In his 19 resting minutes, they're -20, which is -51 per 48.
In game 4, the Cavs were +32 in 41 LeBron min. So -11 in 5 pre-mop-up min.
Per48, that's +37.5 vs -106 ... or basically, off the charts.
The Warriors have been 28 points per 100 possessions better with Iguodala on the court this series.
They're also not great with any of their 3 bigs on the court, which is roughly the same conditions.
Cavs have started games pretty well and do worse as the game moves on. Iggy enters mid-stream in a pretty good position.
By starting and playing just 10-15 minutes, ZaZa is going against about 90% starters. For Iguodala minutes, I estimate almost half the Cavs on the floor are subs. And some of these guys are sub-subs, statistically.
It looks like game 7 has already happened, in game 3 -- Dubs scored last 11 points of the game, hit the go-ahead 3; and this time it's Iggy blocking LeBron's attempt.
Another historic parallel is that
other best team in history, the '96 Bulls, going up 3-0 against a very good Sonics team. Then Jordan and Pippen faltered, and it was 3-2.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:36 pm
by Nathan
Some of it has to do with playing the rare minutes LeBron rests, and playing against the Cavs' subs (though I don't think the Cavs' subs are quite as terrible as they've looked at times this series). You hit the nail on the head though about the Warriors being better when they go small. The gap between Iguodala and the other perimeter options (McCaw, Clark, Livingston) the Warriors have to pair with their big four is massive. Livingston in particular looks like a corpse defensively after being a difference maker on that end just a year ago.
Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:44 pm
by Mike G
Other than their big 3, all Cle players look very bad over 4 games.
Code: Select all
. Cavs min PER WS/48 BPM e480 WS vorp eW
LeBron James 166 27.9 .202 12.7 2.48 .70 .61 .86
Kyrie Irving 160 19.2 .059 1.5 1.32 .20 .14 .44
Kevin Love 131 22.2 .165 3.5 1.67 .45 .18 .46
J.R. Smith 105 6.5 .001 -1.3 -.24 .00 .02 -.05
Tr Thompson 103 7.7 -.003 1.7 .03 -.01 .10 .01
Kyle Korver 78 5.4 .012 -2.4 -.32 .02 -.01 -.05
R Jefferson 66 9.1 .059 -2.3 .07 .08 -.01 .01
Iman Shumpert 62 8.8 .027 -3.3 .18 .04 -.02 .02
Deron Williams 49 -6.5 -.252 -11.2 -.68 -.26 -.11 -.07
Small positives in one stat or another are overwhelmed by large negative / sub-replacement values. Players 4 thru 9 all seem to have one skill or less. They're well past their prime or never had one, yet called upon for major minutes in the Finals.
And Tristan Thompson..? The guys joked and then apologized over "Kardashian curse".