APBRmetrics

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are now built around the Davis and Cousins combination. Davis finished 4th for PFs in 2017 in RPM, 17th in 2016 and 1st in 2015 when he was 4th in the league. At 17th in the league in 2017 while a star, Davis has not proven to be an overwhelming generational talent, although at 24 has the chance to improve to that MVP level. If Cousins was listed at C he would have finished 4th for Cs in 2017, 2nd in 2016 and 1st in 2015. Considering the diminished price they gave up for Cousins in Hield and a 1st, getting a powerful RPM player seems like a solid deal for a team who was desperate to get Davis help although Cousins is on an expiring contract.

They gave a mammoth deal to Holiday who makes 25.7 mil, 26.1, 26.1, 26.1, 27.0 (PO) the next 5 years. Holiday finished 14th for PGs in 2017, 13rd in 2016, 10th in 2015. Not only is the price they paid too much for an average to slightly above average starter, but this is before considering the durability risk.

Rondo finished 43rd for PGs in 2017, 21st in 2016, 51st in 2015. At 3.3 mil expiring his deal has upside and little risk. Tony Allen finished 24th for SGs in 2017, 14th in 2016, and 4th in 2015. While on the downside age wise for 1.5 mil it's easily worth the chance he is still a starting caliber player.

Solomon Hill finished a solid 24th, 24th in 2017 and 2016 and 35th in 2015 and on a reasonable 12.2 mil, 12.7, 13.2 mil the next three years, but will be out most of the season. At 26 RPM would point towards Hill as more of a keeper than his bad contract reputation says. Asik makes 10.6 mil, 11.3, 12.0 (ETO) the next three years and finished 40th for Cs in 2017, 45th in 2016, 35th in 2015. Moore makes 8.4 mil, 8.6, 8.8 the next three years and finished 57th in 2017 for SGs, 31st in 2016, 48th in 2015. For his cheap price his deal isn't crazily overpaid but it still money owed to non difference making play. Cunningham makes 2.3 mil and finished 48th last year for PFs, 69th in 2016 and 32nd in 2015, for a one year deal there's nothing wrong with his price. Ajinca makes 5.0 mil, 5.3 the next two years and finished 49th for Cs in 2017, 42nd in 2016 and 23rd in 2015. For his price he's not a killer. They also signed Ian Clark who finished 77th for SGs last year in his first year over 1000 minutes, although for 1.5 mil isn't a big risk.

Diallo and Frank Jackson were projects in college without great analytics. The team is otherwise fairly dry on prospects.

The Pelicans have two stars in Davis and Cousins and some starting caliber players in Holiday and Hill, but the injury to the latter leaves them with very little on the wing. Overpaying players like Holiday, Asik, Moore, Ajinca has hurt them along with durability issues and signing two injury prone players in Rondo and Allen won't help in that department. Going forward by RPM they should max Cousins if they get the chance, try to move Holiday, Moore, Asik and Ajinca to get more salary room. With Davis, Cousins, Hill and capspace they could put together a good team quickly by making sharp moves but Cousins leaving in UFA could ruin that.

New York Knicks

The Knicks are rebuilding around Porzingis who finished 17th for PFs in RPM in 2017 after 11th in 2016. At 22 this is a good start to his career and has star potential. His longtime teammates Willy Hernangomez finished a solid 36th for Cs as a rookie. Porzingis will be up for an extension next summer and likely demanding the max. If he improves to a top 10 rate he is worth resigning, but if he continues to play like just an average starter they should be wary of handing out a big extension instead of just waiting for RFA.

Their big signing Hardaway, Jr. finished 14th for SGs in 2017 after 38th in 2016 and 61st in 2015. At 16.5 mil, 17.3, 18.2, 19.0 (PO) the next four years he is paid as an average level starter so it is a risk he regresses from his 2017 form, but at 25 he also has the chance to surpass it making it a reasonable gamble.

They have a glut of centers as Noah finished 41st for Cs in 2017, 26th in 2016 and 14th in 2015 and makes 17.8 mil, 18.5, 19.3. He also struggles to stay on the court. Kanter finished 38th for Cs in 2017, 35th in 2016 and 41st in 2015. He makes 20.6 mil, 18.6 (PO). O'Quinn ranked 34th for Cs in 2017, 32nd in 2016 and 33rd in 2015 and makes 4.1 mil, 4.3.

Courtney Lee finished 35th for SGs in 2017, 25th in 2016, 31st in 2015 and makes a reasonable 11.7 mil, 12.2, 12.8 the next three years. Lance Thomas finished 68th for SFs in 2017, 39th in 2016 and 50th in 2015 and makes 6.7 mil, 7.1, 7.6 (TO) the next three years which is unappealing for his production.

McDermott has struggled finishing 67th for SFs in 2017, 56th in 2016 and 51st in 2015. Beasley played just under 1000 minutes but finished 50th for SFs. The last time he approached that many minutes he was 42nd in 2014. Sessions finished 65th for PGs in 2017, 40th in 2016 and 45th in 2015. Jack finished 34th for PGs in 2016, 53rd in 2015, and 47th in 2014. These are proven bad players and just wasting roster spots at this point.

Their top 10 pick Ntilikina had poor production on his French team and analytics. Baker who resigned for 4.3 mil, 4.5 (PO) finished 80th for SGs as a rookie. Kuzmiskas would have finished 47th for SFs as an older rookie.

Carmelo finished 28th for SFs last year after 9th in 2016 and 8th in 2015 and made 26.2 mil, 27.9 (PO) the next two years so it would have been difficult for him to live up to his contract.

The Knicks have the start of a core with Porzingis and Hardaway who are starting caliber, Hernangomez potentially on his way there, and their pick Ntilikina, but are paying a ton of empty money to Kanter, Noah, Thomas and their poor player analysis is evident in using roster spots on Sessions, Jack, McDermott, Beasley. Going forward by RPM they should look to move Noah, Kanter, Thomas and not be attached to Baker and Kuzminskas if they struggle. Moving Lee to create capspace could also lead to more efficient way to use those dollars. If Kanter has a good points per game season they should not be seduced into resigning him and they should look for Porzingis to have better than an average starter season before giving him the max.

Question without a likely answer: What does Melo weigh right now? What should he weigh? Probably less than he does.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder's big 3 for now is Westbrook, George and Melo. Westbrook finished 3rd for PGs in 2017, 3rd in 2016 and 2nd in 2015. In the league he finished 9th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and 6th in 2015. At 28.5 mil, 35.3, 38.2, 41, 43.8 the next 5 years he rightly paid as a superstar. George who makes 19.5 mil, 20.7 mil (PO) finished 12th for SFs in 2017, 4th in 2016, 8th in 2014. With Oladipo ranking 6th in 2017 for SGs, 4th in 2016 and 25th in 2015, George doesn't rank as an automatic upgrade. Melo finished 28th for SFs in 2017, 9th in 2016 and 8th in 2015. He ranks as a significant upgrade over Kanter and has upside to bounce back to top 10 form at his position, but at 26.2 mil, 27.9 (PO) the next two years if he doesn't perform any better than 2017 or declines further they could be stuck with an overpaid contract in 18-19.

Adams finished 34th for Cs in 2017, 13th in 2016, 34th in 2015. At 22.5 mil, 24.2, 25.8, 27.5 the next four years he is paid like a top ten starter which he didn't reach even in his 2016 season, while he is 24 it is likely he remains a bad contract at that price. Roberson finished 10th for SGs in 2017, 19th in 2016, and 13th in 2015. At 9.3 mil, 10, 10.7 the next three years he is paid like a bench players so his average to above average starter play, turning 26 in a few months is a great steal.

Patterson finished 12th for PFs in 2017, 15th in 2016, 28th in 2015. At 5.2 mil, 5.5, 5.7 (PO) he rates as one of the biggest bargains in the league if he can replicate his production, although it appears he came at such a cheap price because of his knee surgery.

Abrines finished 61st for SGs as a rookie in 2017 and makes 5.7 mil, 5.4 the next two years. Singler finished 51st for SFs in 2017, 52nd in 2016 and 41st in 2015 and makes 4.7 mil, 5.0, 5.3 (non-guaranteed) the next three years. Christon finished 80th for PGs last year as a rookie. Longtime RAPM standout Collison rated 53rd for PFs in 2017, 52nd in 2016 and 21st in 2015.

Their 1st round pick Terrance Ferguson had very poor analytics due to his performance in Australia.

If they resign Melo and George to stay next summer, the Thunder would be facing an unrealistically massive luxury tax bill for their ownership situation. By RPM moving Adams if they can would be a big help considering his salary for his production. Melo is turning 34 next summer and has a huge player option so if he doesn't improve in RPM from his 2017 rate moving his contract while they have the chance could be a good move. If George has another season outside top 10 at his position in RPM they should be wary of paying him a max contract. Roberson should be treated as one of their core starters going forward.

Packaging several players in a trade may be appropriate, this season or next summer. Bad with good or less bad.