APBRmetrics

Has anyone released any draft projections for this year yet other than Pelton?

It is still summer. Didn't watch summer league. Heard a few things but not that much. It is mainly just taking time to catch up on draft information.

Here is my first round immediate performance projection list:

Zion Williamson

Brandon Clarke

Grant Williams

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Jaxson Hayes

Rui Hachimura

Nicolas Claxton

Bruno Fernando

Jarrett Culver

Tyler Herro

Ja Morant

Terance Mann

De'Andre Hunter

Daniel Gafford

Goga Bitadze

Cameron Johnson

Ty Jerome

RJ Barrett

PJ Washington

Dylan Windler

Keldon Johnson

Kevin Porter Jr

Matisse Thybulle

Admiral Schofield

Coby White

Bol Bol

Cam Reddish

S Doumbouya

Chuma Okeke


I have tinkered with it but will stop before pre-season games start.

For the guys I picked in first round that have played decent minutes, the correlation of my pick #s to performance is now three times stronger compared to GM draft pick #s than the large advantage I had in early November. Neither is good but mine is way better comparatively. My correlation didn't actually get materially better, the GM correlation just got much much worse in absolute terms. I'll probably do a fuller comparison towards the end or after the season is over.

A lot of weakness in the draft class, especially up high.

Of the players I picked in my 2019 first round, the correlation of those ranks with BPM to date for guys who've played is currently a bit more than twice as strong as the correlation with the GM pick numbers.

Clarke is probably my best success story. NA Walker maybe my biggest goof to date. I have no regrets about the back half of my projections. Thought about having Gafford higher but got shy about it for fear that he would have much chance to play right away. I was high on Doumbouya long-term but didnt rank him high here for a short term scoring, also expecting low minutes early.

Ended up putting Barrett 18th last summer, influenced by the hype. Initially I had him 25-30 for early performance. He is 35th among draftees on BPM. Taken 3rd. I should have ignored the hype better.

Barrett doesn't do anything well. Few things even average. Most badly. Will that change? Maybe on a few things. Enough to be good overall anytime soon? I doubt it.

Being a bad team will help his per game stats. But his overall metrics will likely be weak.

23 of 60 picks have played less than 100 NBA minutes or none at all yet.

Only 5 over 500 minutes and positive on BPM- Clarke, Williamson, Morant, Hayes and Thybulle. Only the first 2 more than marginally positive.



I had the top two in reverse order in my projections and Hayes 5th. I was modestly low on Morant. Pretty off on Thybulle, a bit more than GMs.

Thunder trade of 21 with Clarke available looks awful, at least now.

Garland was outside my top 30. Taken by Cavs 5th and sits at 41st on BPM.

Hunter taken 4th. I projected 13th. Sitting in 37th.

Langford not in my top 30. Taken 14th. Sits 36th.

I had White 25th. Taken 7th. Sits in 23rd on BPM.

I had Claxton 7th. Taken 31. Sits in 11th.

I has Reddish 27th. Taken 10th. Sits 34th.

10 great projections. Worth ten of millions in net value in just the first year.

Another 10 not bad differentials and generally better than the GMs. A handful projected too high and a handful too low compared to results but far fewer than the actual GM picks. 56% of GM picks in top 60 were off by 10 or more spots compared to performance.

Long-run may be different in the end. But my start was far better overall and my projections were intentionally about starts.

I resisted the hype on a lot of perimeters but bought into a few (Alexander-Walker, Mann, Culver). Under-rated a few stretch forwards moderately (C Johnson, K Johnson and Washington). Might adjust. When in doubt, perimeters maybe down even more than I usually do or more cobsistently. Bigs maybe up more, including offensive bigs.