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Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:32 am
by wessonmo
Here are BPI’s
edit: nvm, still working out some issues
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:57 pm
by caliban
Code: Select all
MIL 54,7
BRK 53,2
ATL 50,0
PHI 49,6
MIA 49,1
BOS 45,8
NYK 45,7
CHI 45,4
IND 41,9
WAS 37,5
TOR 36,7
CHO 34,0
DET 28,7
CLE 27,8
ORL 21,7
UTA 53,5
PHO 51,1
DAL 49,9
DEN 49,1
LAL 46,6
MEM 43,7
POR 42,7
GSW 41,2
LAC 40,7
SAS 37,0
NOP 36,9
MIN 36,4
SAC 35,5
HOU 25,4
OKC 18,7
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:17 pm
by liminal_space
Code: Select all
ATL 47.4
BKN 52.4
BOS 49.3
CHA 37.3
CHI 40.0
CLE 28.3
DAL 49.6
DEN 44.8
DET 27.4
GSW 41.1
HOU 24.8
IND 40.7
LAC 48.2
LAL 47.0
MEM 44.4
MIA 42.4
MIL 57.1
MIN 38.7
NOP 39.9
NYK 43.0
OKC 18.6
ORL 21.3
PHI 49.8
PHX 48.7
POR 46.3
SAC 34.8
SAS 34.3
TOR 39.0
UTA 54.9
WAS 38.8
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:49 pm
by tarrazu
Code: Select all
East ATL 49.6
East BKN 52.0
East BOS 45.3
East CHA 31.7
East CHI 43.5
East CLE 25.4
East DET 27.7
East IND 40.8
East MIA 43.5
East MIL 57.6
East NYK 43.9
East ORL 23.2
East PHI 54.2
East TOR 42.2
East WAS 36.2
West DAL 51.4
West DEN 47.1
West GSW 44.5
West HOU 22.8
West LAC 44.7
West LAL 41.6
West MEM 42.8
West MIN 38.3
West NOP 36.8
West OKC 20.8
West PHX 55.8
West POR 46.9
West SAC 34.1
West SAS 32.5
West UTA 53.3
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:14 pm
by Crow
UTA 57
PHX 54
DAL 48
GSW 46
LAC 45
DEN 45
LAK 46
MEM 43
SAC 39
POR 42
NOP 39
MIN 32
SAS 36
OKC 24
HOU 22
BKN 52
MIL 57
PHI 48
MIA 49
ATL 53
BOS 46
IND 43
NYK 46
CHI 43
CHA 33
TOR 39
WAS 35
CLE 24
DET 24
ORL 20
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:02 pm
by sndesai1
will be tracking these entries and others I've seen on twitter at this link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... OH861z2U9/
(please correct me if i made a data entry error)
right now, the "current projection" is just the average of all but will add in updated projections as season gets going
speaking of updated projections, what are some publicly available ones? i know of 538, TeamRankings, Bk-Ref - are there others? i'd like to do some tracking of in-season projection accuracy as well after the season ends
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:04 am
by DarkStar48
sndesai1 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:02 pm
will be tracking these entries and others I've seen on twitter at this link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... OH861z2U9/
(please correct me if i made a data entry error)
right now, the "current projection" is just the average of all but will add in updated projections as season gets going
speaking of updated projections, what are some publicly available ones? i know of 538, TeamRankings, Bk-Ref - are there others? i'd like to do some tracking of in-season projection accuracy as well after the season ends
I noticed that there are no Vegas totals on the sheet. Intentional?
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:47 pm
by sndesai1
bookmaker is actually a sportsbook
i had it readily available so i just used that
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:24 pm
by DarkStar48
Didn’t realize. Was unfamiliar with Bookmaker before.
Btw, for anyone who hasn’t seen these, more predictions!
-ESPN Expert Forecast (Tuesday, Oct. 19):
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/323 ... l-30-teams
-BetMGM Sportsbook (Sunday, Oct. 17):
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
ESPN article also includes Caesars Sportsbook totals plus 538 RAPTOR predictions that were already linked in this forum
It would be interesting to compare all the publicly available oddsmakers and see which betting line is the most “reliable.”
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:41 pm
by DarkStar48
So, ESPN finally released the slightly-delayed win projections according to their Basketball Power Index, BPI (which is different from the Expert Forecast mentioned previously). Based on the available archived links on Internet Archive, it seems the earliest version was posted at 8:01 a.m. EST on Saturday, October 23.
URL:
https://web.archive.org/web/20211023145 ... ayoff-odds
I know @Crow had left the possibility of including some late additions. Since no team had completed more than 2 games (and some were still at only 1), I wanted to suggest tracking the relative performance of the above prediction, even if not as an *official* contest participant. Mostly because BPI is one of the major publicly accessible analytic models.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:11 pm
by Crow
No objections to adding whatever BPI version.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:30 am
by Mike G
Based on performance thru 3-4 games, using the SRS of b-r.com -- then regressing 50% toward 41 wins (.500 W%) -- we get these projected wins in 82 games:
Code: Select all
west W east W
LAC 50 Mia 59
Mem 50 Atl 54
Uta 47 Chi 49
GSW 46 Cha 48
Dal 42 Ind 48
SAS 39 Mil 48
Den 38 Cle 46
Min 38 Was 45
LAL 37 NYK 44
Por 36 Tor 43
Sac 35 Brk 39
Hou 32 Bos 38
NOP 30 Phl 37
Phx 26 Det 35
OKC 20 Orl 30
Relative to these projections, our errors look like this:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
eWin 6.94 8.72
perW 7.17 8.88
cali 7.68 9.25
bpmW 7.98 9.48
lisp 8.08 9.48
trzu 8.28 10.46
shad 8.30 9.85
Crow 8.32 10.03
vegas 8.45 9.89
dtka 8.53 10.23
WShr 8.49 9.90
emin 10.26 11.77
Other than Vegas (opening post), I haven't gone looking for other/unsubmitted predictions.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:00 am
by Mike G
Wow. B-Ref has actually got their Playoff Probabilities running:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Projections are heavily regressed to the mean -- an entry predicting 41 wins for every team is a full 1.00 lower MAE than anyone else.
Nevertheless, here are the standings relative to that page. Entries with low spread are heavily favored at this point in the season.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
perW 5.35 6.50
eWin 5.37 6.49
bpmW 6.73 7.66
cali 6.88 8.09
lisp 7.11 8.22
vegas 7.22 8.47
shad 7.22 8.58
Crow 7.23 8.97
trzu 7.36 9.14
dtka 7.45 8.68
WShr 7.67 8.63
emin 9.06 10.68
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:19 pm
by Crow
The measuring stick for the predictions is a projection of own and is challenging. Gets easier / better with time. Scorekeepers will make best efforts. Suggestions could help. What gets adopted is up to those willing to pick methods and score. Degree of agreement with / faith in accuracy of measuring stick determined by reader and may vary.
Ultimately this business will get set aside in favor of measuring against simple, final results.
So take progress reports with understanding that they are rough but probably improving estimates until the very end.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:52 pm
by Mike G
Yeah so the Miami Heat have SRS of 13.7 and are 3-1. If they were really that good (all year), they would be expected to win 70-71 games.
The b-r.com projection page says they are headed to 50.4 wins; this we would expect from a team with SRS of ~4.6
So it seems they're taking just 1/3 of team SRS right now for their projections. The other 2/3 says your team is .500
(41 + 41 + 70)/3 = 50.4 (roughly)
I'm inclined to keep using them, since future strength of schedule is part of their simulation.