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Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:23 pm
by Mike G
The season is 60% over.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
17.1 Nikola Jokić Den .642 31.1 15.8 7.6 1.6 4.0 .8 3.37
13.7 Antetokounmpo Mil .599 33.2 12.4 6.1 1.1 4.1 1.6 3.06
13.1 Joel Embiid Phl .593 33.8 12.1 4.5 1.1 3.3 1.7 3.04
12.4 Stephen Curry GSW .577 29.5 5.8 6.3 1.4 3.5 .5 2.28
11.1 Jayson Tatum Bos .536 25.6 8.5 3.7 1.0 3.0 .8 1.93
10.9 Kevin Durant Brk .615 30.2 7.4 5.0 .8 3.0 1.0 2.34
10.9 LeBron James LAL .609 29.0 7.5 5.4 1.7 3.1 1.1 2.42
10.7 Rudy Gobert Uta .702 21.1 17.4 1.2 .8 2.1 2.6 2.30
10.7 Trae Young Atl .575 27.3 4.4 8.6 1.1 4.5 .1 1.99
10.5 Domantas Sabonis Ind .632 20.4 13.1 4.6 1.1 3.2 .5 1.94
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.4 James Harden Brk .569 22.0 7.9 8.7 1.3 4.8 .7 1.88
10.3 Dejounte Murray SAS .505 17.9 8.7 8.0 2.2 2.7 .4 1.94
10.2 DeMar DeRozan Chi .573 26.5 5.4 4.5 .8 2.3 .4 1.86
10.2 Karl-A Towns Min .614 25.6 9.9 3.5 1.2 3.6 1.3 2.01
9.8 Chris Paul Phx .571 17.0 4.9 10.2 2.1 2.7 .4 1.74
9.5 Devin Booker Phx .544 27.3 5.9 4.4 1.1 2.8 .4 1.94
9.5 Luka Dončić Dal .528 25.6 9.4 8.6 1.3 4.8 .5 2.29
9.3 Jarrett Allen Cle .690 22.2 12.5 2.0 1.0 2.1 1.6 1.99
9.1 Ja Morant Mem .562 27.5 6.8 6.7 1.2 3.8 .4 2.15
9.1 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP .596 20.6 14.4 2.6 .6 2.9 1.0 1.87
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.8 Donovan Mitchell Uta .560 27.3 4.4 5.2 1.6 3.3 .3 1.92
8.7 Fred VanVleet Tor .564 19.8 4.6 6.0 1.6 2.5 .5 1.49
8.5 Zach LaVine Chi .600 26.5 5.4 4.1 .7 3.1 .4 1.70
8.2 Jusuf Nurkić Por .580 18.1 15.2 3.2 1.6 3.4 .8 1.87
8.2 Jimmy Butler Mia .580 24.0 7.0 6.4 2.5 2.2 .5 2.27
8.2 Shai G-Alexander OKC .521 22.0 4.7 5.2 1.2 2.6 .9 1.55
8.1 LaMelo Ball Cha .535 19.1 8.1 7.3 1.7 3.6 .5 1.73
8.1 Julius Randle NYK .500 17.5 10.4 4.9 .8 3.7 .6 1.40
8.1 Nikola Vučević Chi .506 15.8 12.7 3.5 1.2 2.0 1.3 1.66
8.0 Miles Bridges Cha .581 18.9 7.3 3.0 1.1 1.9 .9 1.37
e82 31-41 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.0 Darius Garland Cle .570 21.9 3.5 8.1 1.4 3.9 .1 1.53
7.9 Christian Wood Hou .559 17.9 12.4 2.2 .9 2.2 1.1 1.60
7.7 Russell Westbrook LAL .504 17.1 8.1 6.9 1.2 4.4 .3 1.29
7.7 Anthony Edwards Min .561 22.0 5.3 3.4 1.8 3.1 .8 1.45
7.6 Jaylen Brown Bos .556 26.1 7.2 3.1 1.2 3.2 .4 1.79
7.4 John Collins Atl .620 19.3 9.3 2.0 .7 1.3 1.4 1.52
7.1 Bradley Beal Was .536 21.9 4.9 5.8 1.0 3.5 .4 1.43
7.1 Kr. Porziņģis Dal .553 24.3 9.9 2.4 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.06
7.1 Clint Capela Atl .560 13.1 16.1 1.5 1.0 .7 1.9 1.71
7.1 Tobias Harris Phl .552 19.2 7.9 3.6 .7 1.8 .7 1.45
7.1 Andrew Wiggins GSW .574 22.8 5.0 2.3 1.0 1.8 .7 1.43
#42-50: Brunson, Siakam, Middleton, A Davis, J Jackson Jr, Bane, Poeltl, Jrue Holiday, Ingram
51-60: Kuzma, Robt Williams, Ayton, Portis, Mobley, Love, Carter Jr, Harrell, Conley, Bojan B
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... otals.html
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:56 pm
by Mike G
I read that Joel Embiid is now the Vegas betting favorite to win MVP this year.
An article at ESPN lists a chronology of the itinerant favorite -- between 5 different players, none of whom has been the incumbent, The Joker.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/331 ... te-win-mvp
Gathering available summary stats, here are 11 players who rank in the Top 5 in at least one of these 7 categories.
xyz is the 7th root of the product of the 7 rates. Win Shares and VORP are extrapolated to 82 team games.
Wxyz multiplies that number by team Win%*2
Code: Select all
xyz Wxyz mvp tm tmW% e82 e484 PER ws82 ws48 BPM v82
7.67 8.76 Jokić Den .571 17.1 3.37 33.3 15.7 .310 14.6 10.2
6.18 7.37 Giannis Mil .596 13.7 3.06 30.9 12.0 .266 10.2 6.6
4.51 7.36 C Paul Phx .816 9.8 1.74 21.1 12.4 .221 5.3 5.0
5.90 7.32 Embiid Phl .620 13.1 3.04 31.4 11.2 .262 9.3 5.7
4.81 7.16 Curry GSW .745 12.4 2.28 21.8 10.5 .190 6.5 5.6
4.84 6.06 Butler Mia .627 8.2 2.27 26.2 9.8 .266 8.5 4.5
4.92 5.83 Durant Brk .592 10.9 2.34 26.1 9.7 .211 7.4 5.2
4.94 5.81 Gobert Uta .588 10.7 2.30 25.7 12.5 .274 5.3 4.0
4.33 5.27 J Allen Cle .608 9.3 1.99 23.0 11.3 .239 4.1 3.5
5.06 4.76 LeBron LAL .471 10.9 2.42 27.3 9.2 .208 8.6 5.6
3.72 3.86 Tatum Bos .519 11.1 1.93 20.2 7.6 .130 3.3 3.8
The b-r.com MVP Tracker contains Harden and Morant but not Butler, Allen, or Tatum. The top 5 are the same as here.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Jokic 47%, Giannis 14, Embiid 11, Paul 8.4, Curry and Durant 5, others 2-3
"Players must have played in at least 70% of the league-wide average for team games to qualify."
Both Durant and LeBron have played in 36 games, or 72% of league-avg 50.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:34 am
by Mike G
Season 81.5% complete.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
16.7 Nikola Jokić Den .642 31.2 15.8 7.5 1.5 4.2 .9 3.29
14.7 Antetokounmpo Mil .614 34.0 12.7 5.6 1.2 3.7 1.6 3.15
14.1 Joel Embiid Phl .593 34.3 12.5 4.2 1.1 3.3 1.6 3.06
12.4 Jayson Tatum Bos .555 28.0 8.2 3.8 1.0 2.9 .7 2.12
11.6 Luka Dončić Dal .550 28.8 9.8 7.8 1.3 4.7 .6 2.51
11.5 Stephen Curry GSW .590 28.7 5.7 5.8 1.3 3.4 .4 2.11
11.3 Karl-A Towns Min .624 27.0 10.5 3.5 1.1 3.4 1.3 2.18
11.0 DeMar DeRozan Chi .581 27.3 5.7 4.2 1.0 2.4 .3 1.91
10.7 LeBron James LAL .610 29.3 7.8 5.0 1.5 3.4 1.0 2.34
10.6 Trae Young Atl .580 27.5 4.1 8.1 1.0 4.2 .1 1.93
e82 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.2 Dejounte Murray SAS .521 19.0 8.6 7.6 2.2 2.7 .3 1.96
9.9 Ja Morant Mem .566 29.6 6.4 6.0 1.1 3.8 .4 2.20
9.8 Rudy Gobert Uta .705 21.5 17.4 1.1 .7 2.1 2.6 2.27
9.4 Domantas Sabonis Sac .584 17.9 14.3 5.2 .8 4.0 .3 1.71
9.3 Devin Booker Phx .553 27.1 5.5 4.2 1.2 2.6 .5 1.90
9.3 Jarrett Allen Cle .683 22.3 12.5 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.98
9.1 Donovan Mitchell Uta .568 27.9 4.6 5.2 1.6 3.3 .2 1.95
8.8 Julius Randle NYK .508 19.0 10.4 4.7 .8 3.6 .6 1.50
8.8 Jo. Valančiūnas NOP .598 20.9 14.2 2.4 .6 3.0 1.0 1.84
8.6 Nikola Vučević Chi .534 17.4 12.8 3.1 1.1 2.2 1.2 1.70
e82 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.4 James Harden Phl .635 25.4 7.6 10.1 1.3 3.1 .0 2.42
8.2 Jimmy Butler Mia .567 23.5 7.0 5.4 2.2 2.3 .6 2.06
8.2 Chris Paul Phx .570 17.0 4.9 9.9 2.0 2.7 .3 1.68
8.2 Kevin Durant Brk .617 29.5 7.3 4.7 .8 3.2 1.0 2.20
7.9 LaMelo Ball Cha .532 19.4 7.6 6.7 1.7 3.7 .5 1.60
7.8 Jaylen Brown Bos .554 26.0 6.7 3.3 1.2 3.1 .3 1.75
7.8 Pascal Siakam Tor .543 19.5 8.3 4.2 1.2 2.6 .6 1.50
7.6 Zach LaVine Chi .596 25.3 5.3 3.8 .6 2.9 .4 1.56
7.6 Christian Wood Hou .571 18.3 12.0 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.2 1.59
7.5 Miles Bridges Cha .573 18.5 6.9 3.0 1.0 2.0 .9 1.26
e82 31-40- tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.3 Shai G-Alexander OKC .536 23.1 4.9 5.1 1.3 3.0 .8 1.60
7.3 Darius Garland Cle .582 23.4 3.6 7.6 1.4 4.2 .1 1.56
7.3 Jusuf Nurkić Por .574 17.9 14.8 3.0 1.4 3.4 .8 1.75
7.3 Fred VanVleet Tor .562 19.6 4.5 5.5 1.5 2.6 .5 1.37
7.3 Bam Adebayo Mia .578 21.8 12.1 3.5 1.9 3.1 .9 2.03
7.0 Clint Capela Atl .583 13.4 16.3 1.4 .9 .8 1.8 1.68
7.0 Deandre Ayton Phx .655 24.2 12.2 1.5 .9 2.0 1.0 2.02
7.0 Robert Williams Bos .723 16.1 12.0 2.2 1.2 1.4 2.8 1.68
6.9 Kyle Kuzma Was .545 17.5 9.5 3.0 .7 2.8 1.0 1.27
6.9 Khris Middleton Mil .574 22.3 6.0 5.1 1.2 3.3 .3 1.52
6.9 Bobby Portis Mil .583 19.4 11.6 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.60
6.9 Jrue Holiday Mil .589 19.9 5.1 6.2 1.6 3.1 .5 1.48
#43-50: Bane, Ingram, A Davis, Jaren Jackson, Brunson, W Carter Jr, Tobias, Westbrook
51-60: Rozier, Poeltl, A Edwards, J Collins, Mobley, A Wiggins, Love, Fox, Bojan, Maxey
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:54 pm
by Crow
Randle 18th here, 164 on EPM, 241 on DRIP, 270 on DARKO...
+1 to -4 on other metrics.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:35 pm
by Mike G
So is Thibs stupid, or crazy, or both? -- to play him so much.
Randle is top scorer, #2 rebounder, top Assist rate (other than Rose) on the team. Pretty much indispensable, on a team that lacks a lot.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2022 2:48 pm
by Crow
It is no surprise to me that Knicks are a sub .500 team with Randle as #1 in big minutes.
To play him less, the rest of the design and / or rest of actual lineup performance would probably have to be different if Toppin got extra minutes because he hasn't been rebounding or passing much. And all 10 of Toppin's most used lineups work / are positive anyways, especially playing with Robinson or Gibson. Others pick up parts of Randle's roles / production. Toppin takes scoring, others rebounding and passing.
So Thibs is stubborn and probably unwise not to use Toppin more and for other reasons.
Barrett and Reddish to date have been very ineffective at PF.
They could use some other players (frontline and otherwise) but they could do better with less reliance on Randle.
Toppin & Gibson has been amazing in almost 300 minutes test. If they were focused on this season results they should have used that way more. Similar but somewhat lesser with the more future oriented Toppin with Robinson.
Toppin with Randle has barely been tried but is 5pts / 100p better than Randle without Toppin. That should have been tried more and still should.
Toppin - Sims has been bad in first 100 minutes but now is an ok time to test further.
Toppin - Noel is basically the only right way to play Noel.
Ideally, I'd want to change Knicks ownership, management, Head Coach, lineup management process / control / design, probably analytics department.
As said before, by lineup data, the core should be Burks - Quickley - Toppin. Trading Burks was a bad idea that thankfully didn't happen.
It appears Randle against bench units is generally good. Would want to study more, but I'd emphasize that with the rotation.
With more time, incentive and the powers that be listening, I'd look at Randle effectiveness by stint minute, quarter and running game minutes to try to fine tune use.
I'd look closer and usage / efficiency data too. Probably would want him dialed back to 25% usage or less.
Teams continually create or allow creation of boxscore stars when they should pay more attention to overall impact and team stats with.
Coaches, organizations and teammates should tell "stars" they work for them, not the other way around.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2022 7:54 pm
by Mike G
After last season's startling improvement, almost all Knicks suffer across the board reductions in productivity this year.
Mitchell Robinson is the big exception, RJ Barrett the only other improver.
Code: Select all
NY Knicks 2021-22 per 36 rates 2020-21 per 36 rates
eW+ per36 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
+.93 Robinson .711 14.8 13.0 .6 1.47 .632 12.3 10.6 .7 1.17
+.47 Barrett .506 18.8 6.4 2.7 1.08 .528 17.4 5.9 2.9 .96
+.03 Reddish .562 13.6 3.2 1.3 .51 .480 11.5 5.1 1.5 .45
-.04 Toppin .569 15.5 7.7 1.7 .92 .570 14.5 7.5 1.5 .94
-.31 Rose .537 15.9 4.2 4.9 1.02 .544 20.0 3.7 5.5 1.26
-.39 Walker .531 15.9 4.4 4.5 .98 .552 19.5 4.6 4.6 1.18
-.44 Noel .567 5.3 9.0 1.3 .49 .628 8.5 9.5 1.0 .87
-.95 Fournier .551 17.2 3.5 2.0 .81 .590 19.3 3.6 3.3 1.05
-1.00 Gibson .601 7.9 8.3 1.0 .43 .650 11.0 9.8 1.3 1.05
-1.14 Burks .536 13.5 6.1 3.2 .92 .557 18.3 6.6 2.9 1.23
-1.39 Randle .508 19.0 10.4 4.7 1.50 .557 23.0 9.7 5.3 1.79
-1.56 Quickley .524 14.3 4.1 4.0 .73 .548 21.5 4.0 3.5 1.27
Randle's minutes are down from 38 to 35, in spite of the team going with no point guard for much of the season. They've had Alec Burks running the point, which he'd done for 7% of his career minutes.
Roughly half the team has dropped of as much or more than Randle has.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Fri Mar 25, 2022 12:40 am
by Mike G
The mvp race according to b-r.com and stats is actually competitive. It had looked like another Joker runaway.
Hype free:
Code: Select all
Prob% mvp Tm TmW% Min PER WS ws/48 BPM vorp
39.2 Jokic Den .589 2185 32.5 13.5 .297 13.8 8.7
28.1 Giannis Mil .625 1970 32.2 11.9 .289 11.1 6.6
11.7 Embiid Phl .625 1974 31.1 10.5 .255 9.4 5.7
6.6 Paul Phx .808 1916 20.8 8.4 .211 5.3 3.6
2.6 Doncic Dal .616 1996 24.1 5.9 .143 7.8 4.9
Suns keep winning without Chris Paul, which ironically keeps his name in the running.
Luka is included to show how far behind he (and everyone else) is; tied for 5th: Harden, Gobert, Ja, Booker
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 3:00 pm
by Mike G
Final numbers
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
17.0 Nikola Jokić Den .649 31.5 15.4 7.0 1.6 4.1 .9 3.30
14.8 Joel Embiid Phl .599 34.2 12.7 3.9 1.2 3.4 1.6 3.10
14.2 Antetokounmpo Mil .615 33.3 12.6 5.2 1.1 3.6 1.5 3.09
12.6 Jayson Tatum Bos .569 28.7 8.1 3.9 1.1 2.9 .7 2.22
12.2 Luka Dončić Dal .561 29.5 9.5 7.8 1.3 4.6 .6 2.55
11.2 Karl-A Towns Min .628 26.9 10.5 3.2 1.1 3.3 1.2 2.17
10.9 Trae Young Atl .592 28.4 3.9 8.2 1.0 4.2 .1 1.97
10.4 DeMar DeRozan Chi .578 26.5 5.3 3.9 .9 2.4 .3 1.81
10.0 Rudy Gobert Uta .706 21.1 17.1 1.1 .7 2.0 2.4 2.26
9.9 LeBron James LAL .610 29.0 7.8 4.8 1.3 3.4 1.0 2.29
eWin 11-20 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.8 Devin Booker Phx .568 28.4 5.2 4.1 1.1 2.5 .4 2.01
9.6 Kevin Durant Brk .623 30.0 7.2 5.0 .9 3.4 .9 2.26
9.6 Stephen Curry GSW .594 28.5 5.6 5.7 1.3 3.4 .4 2.09
9.6 Dejounte Murray SAS .527 19.4 8.3 7.4 2.1 2.8 .4 1.94
9.0 Donovan Mitchell Uta .565 27.6 4.7 5.0 1.5 3.2 .2 1.91
9.0 Pascal Siakam Tor .555 21.1 8.3 4.3 1.2 2.6 .6 1.67
8.9 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP .607 21.2 14.3 2.5 .6 2.9 1.0 1.91
8.6 Jaylen Brown Bos .566 26.8 6.6 3.3 1.2 2.9 .3 1.87
8.5 James Harden BkPhl .569 20.8 7.5 8.2 1.2 4.3 .5 1.70
8.4 Ja Morant Mem .565 29.1 6.3 5.9 1.1 3.8 .4 2.14
eWin 21-30 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 LaMelo Ball Cha .548 20.1 7.2 6.7 1.7 3.7 .5 1.63
8.2 Nikola Vučević Chi .530 17.0 12.4 2.8 1.1 2.1 1.1 1.63
8.1 Jimmy Butler Mia .577 23.5 6.6 5.2 2.0 2.3 .5 2.01
8.0 Domantas Sabonis InSac .625 19.5 13.1 4.3 1.0 3.3 .5 1.81
8.0 Miles Bridges Cha .584 19.4 6.9 3.0 .9 1.9 .9 1.35
7.9 Bam Adebayo Mia .594 22.3 11.8 3.3 1.8 3.0 .9 2.07
7.7 Julius Randle NYK .500 18.6 10.3 4.7 .8 3.5 .6 1.44
7.5 Darius Garland Cle .569 22.4 3.4 7.4 1.4 3.7 .1 1.49
7.4 Zach LaVine Chi .595 24.7 4.9 3.8 .7 2.7 .4 1.52
7.4 Clint Capela Atl .595 14.0 15.7 1.3 1.0 .8 1.7 1.73
eWin 31-40 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.3 Jarrett Allen Cle .683 21.6 12.3 1.6 .9 1.9 1.5 1.94
7.3 Deandre Ayton Phx .649 23.8 12.3 1.4 .8 1.9 .9 2.04
7.1 Christian Wood Hou .583 18.8 11.8 2.1 1.0 2.2 1.1 1.64
7.0 Chris Paul Phx .572 16.5 4.7 9.7 1.9 2.6 .3 1.57
7.0 Desmond Bane Mem .587 22.1 5.4 2.7 1.2 1.8 .5 1.48
6.7 Kr. Porziņģis HuWas .566 25.0 10.2 2.5 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.18
6.6 Shai G-Alexander OKC .546 23.5 4.9 5.0 1.3 2.9 .9 1.64
6.6 Fred VanVleet Tor .546 18.6 4.4 5.4 1.6 2.5 .5 1.29
6.6 Anthony Edwards Min .553 20.4 5.0 3.3 1.6 2.8 .7 1.28
6.6 Jalen Brunson Dal .576 19.0 4.5 4.7 1.0 1.8 .0 1.25
eWin 41-50 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.6 Terry Rozier Cha .561 18.8 4.5 3.8 1.3 1.4 .4 1.28
6.6 Jrue Holiday Mil .587 19.5 4.9 6.1 1.7 3.0 .5 1.43
6.4 Jordan Poole GSW .590 23.4 4.1 4.1 .9 2.9 .4 1.36
6.4 Tobias Harris Phl .560 17.6 7.1 3.1 .6 1.7 .6 1.20
6.4 Khris Middleton Mil .568 21.2 6.0 5.0 1.2 3.2 .3 1.43
6.4 Robert Williams Bos .735 16.0 11.8 2.1 1.2 1.3 2.7 1.69
6.2 Bobby Portis Mil .567 17.6 11.5 1.3 .9 1.6 .9 1.48
6.2 Jaren Jackson Mem .526 19.7 7.8 1.2 1.0 2.2 3.0 1.41
6.2 Kevin Love Cle .585 21.6 11.3 2.8 .6 2.0 .4 1.79
6.2 Jakob Poeltl SAS .604 16.7 11.2 2.7 .8 2.0 2.2 1.51
eWin 51-60 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.2 Ty. Haliburton SaInd .590 14.8 4.2 6.6 1.9 2.7 .7 1.11
6.1 Tyler Herro Mia .555 22.2 5.7 3.8 .8 2.9 .1 1.36
6.1 CJ McCollum PorNO .551 20.6 4.7 4.3 1.1 2.2 .4 1.37
6.0 Russell Westbrook LAL .503 16.2 7.6 5.9 1.0 4.0 .3 1.07
6.0 Wendell Carter Orl .591 17.8 12.1 2.7 .8 2.3 .8 1.55
5.9 Tyrese Maxey Phl .586 18.4 3.3 3.8 .7 1.2 .4 1.07
5.9 Scottie Barnes Tor .545 15.0 7.9 3.0 1.1 1.9 .8 1.08
5.8 Evan Mobley Cle .541 15.7 9.1 2.3 .9 2.1 1.8 1.20
5.8 Brandon Ingram NOP .545 22.0 6.5 4.9 .6 2.9 .5 1.49
5.8 Andrew Wiggins GSW .553 19.6 5.1 2.2 1.1 1.7 .8 1.19
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 10:48 pm
by Crow
Will Bridges and Brunson get paid commensurate to these ranks?
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:11 pm
by DarkStar48
Crow wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 10:48 pm
Will Bridges and Brunson get paid commensurate to these ranks?
It depends.
For Bridges, CHA had offered him a 4-year $60M extension before this season, which was still probably a ~$22M overpay given his production and progression that far. He goes into restricted free agency this offseason. Obviously, he improved dramatically this year, and most of the analysis I have seen has him as a 5-year ~$150M guy. However, he apparently wants a full max contract of $173M, which would be ~$23M more that CHA wants.
The Brunson thing mostly depends on what he wants to do. I think the market for him is active enough that if he does go into unrestricted free agency, he will probably get full market price plus maybe a little premium with another team. He has said that he really wants to stay in DAL. With Luka’s super-max kicking in next season, Bertan’s and Dinwiddie contracts and Finney-Smith’s extension, DAL is going to be limited in how much they can offer him. If familiarity/contentment is the most important thing to him, he will probably have to leave significant money on the table to stay with the Mavs.
Re: eWins 2022
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 3:34 pm
by Crow
DARKO has both projected at about +1. That is a tricky level to decide what to pay or if to move on.
Bridges estimated rate of improvement has rapidly slowed. Brunson's estimate has been in decline all season.
I am not sure what I'd offer either from any team but I am not super excited about paying either huge.