APBRmetrics

Blake Wesley has been awful so far. 45% ts%, 22% TO rate, -11 BPM. Was not on my big board at all. Hypesters-and Spurs- were very wrong so far.

Garza, limited minutes for Timberwolves but strong offense, highlighted by 65% ts% and 15.5% offensive rebounding rate.

15th for sophomores on DARKO projections. Most did not have him in top 60 of 2021 draft. Was first rounder to me.

Accidentally deleted link to review of draftee performance in NBA:

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 51298?s=20

Other news on 2022 draftees:

Ones I ranked lower or way lower than consensus:

Kennedy Chandler still not on an NBA roster.

Besson had an ok season in weak French A league but shot 7% from 3 in playoffs.

Keels about to get cut.

McGowens, -6 BPM.

Houstan, 36% raw fg% and -4 BPM.

Jovic, 23% from 3.

D Daniels weak shooting, J Davis very weak shooting.

Blake Wesley, touted by some, -9.6 BPM.

Sochan, -4 BPM.

Ryan Rollins, -15 BPM.

Half of these not anywhere in my top 60 draft big board.


One I liked better than consensus:.

I Mobley, strong summer league.

There are other relatively good overperformers I've mentioned in past. Like Eason. Probably do more followups next season.

Select 2021 and 2022 draftees by current Darko projection



https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 26496?s=20

Garza, top 10% in league on EPM last season.

Holmgren in small sample jumps to commanding career BPM lead for 2022 draft class. Jalen Williams 3rd. Banchero 11th. Sharpe 24th. Ivey 26th. Dieng 29th. Sochan 35th. Wesley 45th. Mark Williams 5th.

I was closer on my big board to these performance levels than twitter draft consensus on all those named but one where it is close to the same.

2021 draft update:

Cade Cunningham 19th on career to date BPM.

Cam Thomas hot at the moment as he occasionally is but just 32nd in class on career BPM, slightly less than his draft number.

Bouknight 52nd.

Jalen Johnson up to 9th.

I was more "right" than consensus on 3 of these 4.

Only 1 of top 11 2022 draftees by GMs made the top 7 for career BPM to date. The average pick rank for the top 7 was about 12.5.

Holmgren has by far best career BPM estimate to date in class. Kessler, who I rated higher than anyone with recorded twitter draft boards, down this season so far but still 2nd best. Mark Williams, who I liked more than consensus, 3rd. Jalen Williams 4th. Banchero, who I rated lower than almost anybody, 6th and still negative.

Wesley, who l disliked greatly and did not put in my top 60, is the lowest rated performer with more than trivial minutes. (A big proponent of home team Wesley got hired to run or help run Draftexpress...)

Rated J Davis well below consensus and he is 2bd worst to date. Wizards with biggest analytic staff in league but a bad looking draft pick, however that happened.

Some liked Keels. Not me, not in top 60 and not close. Currently gone from league.

Some prominent draft twitter "names" pushed McGowens and / or Rollins. Neither in my top 60. Garbage results to date.

Did not follow the prep hypsters on Watson and Baldwin. Both pretty bad so far.

I liked Isiah Mobley more than anyone I recall. Way way overoerforming draft rank in fairly limited minutes.