Cunningham pretty badly negative pairs with all other starters. Mixed with bench.
Starters with Ivey about -15pts / 48 min. 30 pts better with Joseph in early minutes.
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Pairs and trio of Morant Aldama and Bane are great. Pairs and trio of Morant Adams and Konchar are near neutral overall, horrendous though without Aldama and Bane. Full 5 is great but barely over 7 minutes per game. I'd at least double that. And yet this 5 might not be THE answer.
All small sample, so keep watching.
All small sample, so keep watching.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Towns - Gobert, moderate positive so far. Just one, both mild negatives. Neither in short minutes, massive positive.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The most used Spurs pairs are positive, except those with Vassell. Negative with whole main rotation except Johnson with a slight positive.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Bogdanovic with the hot shooting for Pistons... thru 6 games. Contract extension. Will take him to age 36.
BPM of +4.6 right now... but never over +1 for a full season. -9 with him on court, though that is 4 points better than overall team average and way better than with him off.
DRIP projection slightly above neutral, DARKO slightly below. DARKO never reached +1.
How much difference will he make this season and next 2?
BPM of +4.6 right now... but never over +1 for a full season. -9 with him on court, though that is 4 points better than overall team average and way better than with him off.
DRIP projection slightly above neutral, DARKO slightly below. DARKO never reached +1.
How much difference will he make this season and next 2?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
"How many teams will have a minutes weighted average age of 25 years old or less?"
7 currently including Griz.
Celtics, Sixers and Mavs went well above 27.0. Plenty of other watch list teams mentioned on first page of thread stayed in middle band (25-27). Thinking they could win big younger than normal or taking their time?
7 currently including Griz.
Celtics, Sixers and Mavs went well above 27.0. Plenty of other watch list teams mentioned on first page of thread stayed in middle band (25-27). Thinking they could win big younger than normal or taking their time?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
3 best 5 man lineups over 50 minutes are for Warriors, Suns and Bucks. Worst qualifiers? Nets, Hornets and Mavs and Pistons.
Number of lineups over 50 minutes in October is about the same as last season with one day to go. So it might end up with a modest increase (but not revolution yet).
The scarcity of strong big minute pairs in smallish samples continues to somewhat surprise me. Just 6 of 50 most used are +8 / 100p or better. 5 are -8 or worse. Lots of meh for top Coaching choices. Pairs tend to used in lots or meh to bad lineups by Coaches, so not totally surprised. Underwhelmed might be the better word
Smart - Brown at -8. K Porter - J Green and Porter - J Smith are still the clear worst in 50 most used. The trio is the runaway worst in 50 most used.
Only 2 of the 11 trios most favored by Coaches are better than +2, both with the Sixers and both with Harden-Harris.
Pistons with 6 of 11 most used quads. All badly negative and the only negatives in that tier. Sixers and Hawks with strongest in top tier.
There are positive Pistons quads over 15 minutes. All with Joseph and all without Ivey. Fwiw.
A. Horford - M. Smart - J. Brown - J. Tatum is the most used Celtics quad... and -11 / 100p. Only negative in 5 most used. Some horrendous results in second tier of lineups. Bad ones discontinued? Generally not. 199 quads used so far this season, 125 in last 2 games. Not what I'd call targeted.
Number of lineups over 50 minutes in October is about the same as last season with one day to go. So it might end up with a modest increase (but not revolution yet).
The scarcity of strong big minute pairs in smallish samples continues to somewhat surprise me. Just 6 of 50 most used are +8 / 100p or better. 5 are -8 or worse. Lots of meh for top Coaching choices. Pairs tend to used in lots or meh to bad lineups by Coaches, so not totally surprised. Underwhelmed might be the better word
Smart - Brown at -8. K Porter - J Green and Porter - J Smith are still the clear worst in 50 most used. The trio is the runaway worst in 50 most used.
Only 2 of the 11 trios most favored by Coaches are better than +2, both with the Sixers and both with Harden-Harris.
Pistons with 6 of 11 most used quads. All badly negative and the only negatives in that tier. Sixers and Hawks with strongest in top tier.
There are positive Pistons quads over 15 minutes. All with Joseph and all without Ivey. Fwiw.
A. Horford - M. Smart - J. Brown - J. Tatum is the most used Celtics quad... and -11 / 100p. Only negative in 5 most used. Some horrendous results in second tier of lineups. Bad ones discontinued? Generally not. 199 quads used so far this season, 125 in last 2 games. Not what I'd call targeted.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Hayward - McDaniels, the best Hayward pair and 3rd best on team with as many minutes.
Hayward - Washington might have some prior logic but it is the worst performing main rotation Hayward pair... so far.
Worth working with data and watching results...
Hayward - Washington might have some prior logic but it is the worst performing main rotation Hayward pair... so far.
Worth working with data and watching results...
Re: '22-23 Commentary
9 of 11 most used Lakers pairs negative, including James - Davis and 5 other James pairs.
Westbrook James is only -2 and Westbrook Davis is the best of those 11 most used at +5.
Plenty of issues with every starter.
Reaves positive with 3 of 4 starters he typically plays with. Not James. And not Beverley.
L. James - R. Westbrook - A. Davis - L. Walker IV - A. Reaves is +53 pts / 100p... in 11 minutes of use. 5th most but that is far too little test. They don't have to start it, just use it. But are they going to find something better to start? What? The latest starting lineup is -12 pts / 100p in 13 minutes. Not much commitment and not much to show for it yet.
Lakers most used at only 33 minutes. No lineup used in more than games. 85 5 man lineups used, 65% negative. 224 quads used, 64% negative.
I'd be moving toward greater concentration on what is working and away from what is sucking.
Westbrook James is only -2 and Westbrook Davis is the best of those 11 most used at +5.
Plenty of issues with every starter.
Reaves positive with 3 of 4 starters he typically plays with. Not James. And not Beverley.
L. James - R. Westbrook - A. Davis - L. Walker IV - A. Reaves is +53 pts / 100p... in 11 minutes of use. 5th most but that is far too little test. They don't have to start it, just use it. But are they going to find something better to start? What? The latest starting lineup is -12 pts / 100p in 13 minutes. Not much commitment and not much to show for it yet.
Lakers most used at only 33 minutes. No lineup used in more than games. 85 5 man lineups used, 65% negative. 224 quads used, 64% negative.
I'd be moving toward greater concentration on what is working and away from what is sucking.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
After 7 straight years of falling, average player weight so far is up 2 pounds.
After 4 years at 6-6, average height has returned to 6-7, where it was for 38 prior years.
3pt fg% has ticked back ahead of the relative low of last season but 3ptas are still at 3 year low. Turnovers so far are 2nd worst in 9 years. Some of these trends may be common early year trends that may adjust as the season progresses. Time will tell.
After 4 years at 6-6, average height has returned to 6-7, where it was for 38 prior years.
3pt fg% has ticked back ahead of the relative low of last season but 3ptas are still at 3 year low. Turnovers so far are 2nd worst in 9 years. Some of these trends may be common early year trends that may adjust as the season progresses. Time will tell.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Based mainly on pair data, lineups with Porter Gordon Martin Eason and Sengun seem worth a look. The 5 man has only 2 minutes test. But 2 quads did well in 11 and 16 minutes. It is kind of silly and shaky to talk about such small samples but given how bad things they've "tried" are and what the larger pair data shows, these combos are where I would turn for more time / test. 248 quads used and only 3 for over 50 minutes. Chaos. Intentional or allowed to be that way? Perhaps. Tanking or the potential of tanking clouds the understanding. But not that what they are doing is quite bad.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
By SRS there are 5-8 top teams depending on your cutoff point.
Cavs and Suns in first tier. Mavs and Pelicans in 2nd. Bucks and maybe Raptors and Sixers in 3rd. No one else currently close by SRS, though some by W-L.
Cavs and Suns in first tier. Mavs and Pelicans in 2nd. Bucks and maybe Raptors and Sixers in 3rd. No one else currently close by SRS, though some by W-L.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Timberwolves have Gobert with starters for about half his time, then nothing else used / tested for over 10 minutes for season. Plan A, then total chaos. Plan A is performing at almost -6pts / 100p. Chaos is doing much better on average.
In a specific game guess / pick the right part of chaos, if can. With almost no 5 man data to guide, it goes to sub-lineup data and / or subjective.
In a specific game guess / pick the right part of chaos, if can. With almost no 5 man data to guide, it goes to sub-lineup data and / or subjective.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
About 1/10th of way thru regular season phase, teams average 0.2 lineups over 100 minutes, 0.8 total over 50 minutes and 2.3 total over 25 minutes.
So, as usual, very few lineups will get significant test... even by the end of the season. So playoffs? Mostly "blind" on 5 man lineup performance.
So, as usual, very few lineups will get significant test... even by the end of the season. So playoffs? Mostly "blind" on 5 man lineup performance.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Kyrie to...?
Heat
Raptors
Hornets
Jazz
Sixers
Pistons
Magic
Pelicans
Lakers
Rockets
They seem more likely to me than rest of field.
Heat
Raptors
Hornets
Jazz
Sixers
Pistons
Magic
Pelicans
Lakers
Rockets
They seem more likely to me than rest of field.