The first wave big 3:
Durant, currently 15th all time on regular season scoring, probably gets to 10th if he has a healthy season.
Harden probably goes from 30th to 20th. Westbrook right on his heels.
Current top 25 has two pairs of teamates. Looking at adding a trio. Do all get to 30k? Probably. Any reach 35k? I dunno. Any of them stick around to 40 years old?
Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
They are waiting on thin trade possibilities but I assume that at least 2 of Oladipo, Bertans and Washington will be among the 3 necessary roster reductions.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Most sportbooks have Thunder 11th in west on odds to win title. A couple tied for 10th. 15th to 17th overall.
On wins rank they appear to be in tight groups / often ties for 7th to 10th most places. 15th to 17th overall. The line is at 42.5 to 44.5 wins.
On wins rank they appear to be in tight groups / often ties for 7th to 10th most places. 15th to 17th overall. The line is at 42.5 to 44.5 wins.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
I'd discuss consolidation trades for T Harris, Siakam, maybe G Hayward or Fournier. And others: Olynyk, Larry Nance...
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Are the Thunder going to win more games than the Knicks? Maybe. Kings? Doubt it. Pelicans? Depends on Zion. Timberwolves? Maybe. Hawks? Probably.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
24th on salary cap measure at the moment. Kings are only team lower who made playoffs last season. (Did not advance.)
Average age at spotrac (presumably simple average) is 29th, a tick behind Blazers.
3 more standard contract players on roster right now than any other team.
Average age at spotrac (presumably simple average) is 29th, a tick behind Blazers.
3 more standard contract players on roster right now than any other team.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
2 of the 3 best player pairs for Thunder last season had I Joe, despite his moderate minute total.
Cut Joe? Heck no. Cut his minutes? I wouldn't. Cut other player's minutes. Dort, Mann...
Cut Joe? Heck no. Cut his minutes? I wouldn't. Cut other player's minutes. Dort, Mann...
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
9 guys currently on roster who didn't play for team last season. How many on roster now won't be in 15 months? Probably 7-9 (or more).
Despite the optimism about young guys already here and all the draft picks, the Thunder are only a few years from being unlikely or unable to retain much of that treasure beyond rookie deals.
Pay 4-5 guys big? Maybe. But probably not 7.
The number deserving big pay deals is not known, but at least 7 current dream about it and many of the upcoming 15 first rounders will too. No way more than half realize that (even with staggering timetables) with Thunder and probably less to much less.
Even paying $5-10 million / yr on rookie deals with get hard after the number of big 2nd contracts reaches 4 or 5.
Choice of peak 2-3 years will be critical decisions. Not making an explicit choice early will probably be a major mistake.
Presti will have to design and execute better than in era 1, 2/3.
Despite the optimism about young guys already here and all the draft picks, the Thunder are only a few years from being unlikely or unable to retain much of that treasure beyond rookie deals.
Pay 4-5 guys big? Maybe. But probably not 7.
The number deserving big pay deals is not known, but at least 7 current dream about it and many of the upcoming 15 first rounders will too. No way more than half realize that (even with staggering timetables) with Thunder and probably less to much less.
Even paying $5-10 million / yr on rookie deals with get hard after the number of big 2nd contracts reaches 4 or 5.
Choice of peak 2-3 years will be critical decisions. Not making an explicit choice early will probably be a major mistake.
Presti will have to design and execute better than in era 1, 2/3.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Clippers were only western contender that the Thunder had a winning record against in last regular season. Unless you want to count 11th place Mavs too.
Clippers averaged 1 missing superstar across the 4 games. The 2 times they had K Leonard, they won and lost by 1.
Tie with Griz. All the rest, losing records. Swept by Kings.
Clippers averaged 1 missing superstar across the 4 games. The 2 times they had K Leonard, they won and lost by 1.
Tie with Griz. All the rest, losing records. Swept by Kings.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
5 most used lineups:
Nuggets, about 1400 regular season minutes.
Thunder, about 620.
Nuggets' top minute count was 226% of Thunder's.
Nuggets net margin from 5 most used: +378. About +13 pts / 48 minutes.
Thunder: -146. About -11.3 pts / 48.
I call that a HUGE issue. Never heard Coach or front office acknowledge it as such. Is it acknowledge internally? If not, wow...
Some fans see it as an issue but not that many to my eyes & ears.
Does it come up in mainstream articles (at all) about last season or the future? Not to my reading experience.
This is analytics. Necessary analytics. Necessary to acknowledge and react to analytics.
Anybody find a bigger problem with the team? Via add-on data engineering (beyond what is public data) or statistical modeling or any other technique?
Thunder's 5 most used lineups were 3rd worst in league by net margin (behind Pistons and Rockets) and barely not the worst by pts / 48 minutes. Who knew that? Do Coach D and the Thunder know that? (I am guessing not but it is a huge issue either way.) Who cares and who doesn't? Will they care next season if it repeats? Such performance is going to "matter" if repeated, care or not.
Effectively dismiss or minimize the meaning of most or all specific lineup data? What about these blocks of 5 most used?
Nuggets, about 1400 regular season minutes.
Thunder, about 620.
Nuggets' top minute count was 226% of Thunder's.
Nuggets net margin from 5 most used: +378. About +13 pts / 48 minutes.
Thunder: -146. About -11.3 pts / 48.
I call that a HUGE issue. Never heard Coach or front office acknowledge it as such. Is it acknowledge internally? If not, wow...
Some fans see it as an issue but not that many to my eyes & ears.
Does it come up in mainstream articles (at all) about last season or the future? Not to my reading experience.
This is analytics. Necessary analytics. Necessary to acknowledge and react to analytics.
Anybody find a bigger problem with the team? Via add-on data engineering (beyond what is public data) or statistical modeling or any other technique?
Thunder's 5 most used lineups were 3rd worst in league by net margin (behind Pistons and Rockets) and barely not the worst by pts / 48 minutes. Who knew that? Do Coach D and the Thunder know that? (I am guessing not but it is a huge issue either way.) Who cares and who doesn't? Will they care next season if it repeats? Such performance is going to "matter" if repeated, care or not.
Effectively dismiss or minimize the meaning of most or all specific lineup data? What about these blocks of 5 most used?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Last season the Thunder had above league average ts% against 4 western teams and below average against the other 10.
They were 12-5 when getting 30+ free throws. 28-37 when they got less. The starting lineup at end of season had 1 each of well above and vastly above league average ft rates, 2 mildly below and Giddey at barely half of average. 8-9 players likely to be returning next season had well below to vastly below average ft rates. 2 to 4 of the new players who might stay on roster might have above average ft rates, the rest are likely below average to way below. If SGA's usage dips with so many others wanting to shoot, it will likely hurt team ft rate.
They were 12-5 when getting 30+ free throws. 28-37 when they got less. The starting lineup at end of season had 1 each of well above and vastly above league average ft rates, 2 mildly below and Giddey at barely half of average. 8-9 players likely to be returning next season had well below to vastly below average ft rates. 2 to 4 of the new players who might stay on roster might have above average ft rates, the rest are likely below average to way below. If SGA's usage dips with so many others wanting to shoot, it will likely hurt team ft rate.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
On draft picks taken vs. not and Coaches taken.
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 10208?s=20
https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 10208?s=20
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder were 23rd best against top 10 teams last season. 21 other teams were equal or better against the top 16. How much better do they get against these?
The 22-13 record against the 14 worst helped the overall record a lot. Room to expand on that? Might be limited. Ability to even maintain that part? Not a certainty. Probably at least 9 of the bottom 14 got better.
The 22-13 record against the 14 worst helped the overall record a lot. Room to expand on that? Might be limited. Ability to even maintain that part? Not a certainty. Probably at least 9 of the bottom 14 got better.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Translating to win %s, the Thunder won 32% against top 10, 38% against top 16.
To get to a 5 seed, it appears a team needs to get to about 50% against the top 16.
Only top 5 teams in league are notably better than the Thunder against the bottom 14, so probably not much room to improve there.
To get to a 5 seed, it appears a team needs to get to about 50% against the top 16.
Only top 5 teams in league are notably better than the Thunder against the bottom 14, so probably not much room to improve there.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Thunder 2nd lowest on 2pta assist rate. 5th most on 3pta last season.
6th lowest overall assists / 100p.
How will the new guards affect these?
6th lowest overall assists / 100p.
How will the new guards affect these?